Changing zoning rules to allow taller and denser buildings may cause land values to go up, and public officials may try to “capture” this added value by requiring affordable units in new developments. But what happens when costs and benefits are out of balance? Seattle offers a cautionary tale.

Show notes:

• Krimmel, J., & Wang, B. (2023). Upzoning With Strings Attached: Evidence From Seattle’s Affordable Housing Mandate. Cityscape, 25(2), 257-278.
• City of Seattle webpage for the Mandatory Housing Affordability program.
• Lebret, D., Liu, C., & Valentin, M. (2024). Carrot and Stick Zoning. UEA 13th European Meeting.
• Manville, M., & Osman, T. (2017). Motivations for Growth Revolts: Discretion and pretext as sources of development conflict. City & Community, 16(1), 66-85.
• Phillips, S. (2022). Building Up the" Zoning Buffer": Using Broad Upzones to Increase Housing Capacity Without Increasing Land Values. UCLA Lewis Center for Regional Policy Studies.

When the demand for housing rises, which kinds of neighborhoods respond by building more homes, and which just get more expensive? Nathaniel Baum-Snow joins to discuss his research on the different responses of urban, suburban, and exurban neighborhoods, and the many forms “supply” can take.

Show notes:

• Baum-Snow, N., & Han, L. (2024). The Microgeography of Housing Supply. Journal of Political Economy, 132(6), 1897-1946.
• Alameldin, M., & Karlinsky, S. 2024). Construction Defect Liability in California: How Reform Could Increase Affordable Homeownership Opportunities. UC Berkeley Terner Center for Housing Innovation.
• Saiz, A. (2010). The Geographic Determinants of Housing Supply. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 125(3), 1253-1296.
• UCLA Lewis Center research on housing demolition and redevelopment trends in Los Angeles.

We often talk about residential segregation by race or income, but we rarely explore it in the literal sense — as in segregation of residences: of one kind of housing from another. Ann Owens joins to discuss her research on how segregation manifests itself in our built environment in cities and neighborhoods across the U.S.

Show notes:

• Owens, A. (2019). Building inequality: Housing segregation and income segregation. Sociological Science, 6, 497.
• Rich, P., & Owens, A. (2023). Neighborhood–School structures: A new approach to the joint study of social contexts. Annual review of sociology, 49(1), 297-317.
• Check out the interactive segregation map and data tool created by Ann and the rest of the Segregation Explorer team.
• And check out Propinquity, the site created by Andre Comandon and Paavo comparing segregation in cities across a dozen countries.
• Lens, M. C., & Monkkonen, P. (2016). Do strict land use regulations make metropolitan areas more segregated by income? Journal of the American Planning Association, 82(1), 6-21.
• Kain, J. F., & Quigley, J. M. (1972). Note on owner's estimate of housing value. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 67(340), 803-806.
• Andre Comandon’s dissertation, “Ethnoracial Diversification at the Edges of Exclusion.”
• Owens, A., & Smith, R. B. (2023). Producing affordable housing in higher-opportunity neighborhoods: Incentives in California’s LIHTC program. Journal of Urban Affairs, 1-29.

Black households make up a disproportionate share of rent assistance recipients. Andrew Fenelon discusses how a “two-tiered approach to housing support" favoring white homeowners helped create the disparity.

Show notes:

• Fenelon, A. (2024). Race, housing policy, and the demographic and spatial structure of modern housing programs: Who receives rental assistance and where do they live? Journal of Urban Affairs, 46(5), 944-961.
• Streets.MN article about the Bryant Avenue Bike Path (with photos).
• Episode 17 of UCLA Housing Voice, discussing housing vouchers with Rob Collinson.
• Episode 37 of UCLA Housing Voice, discussing public housing with Akira Drake Rodriguez.
• Tax Policy Center analysis of the costs of U.S. homeownership assistance programs.

Before the 2000s, French real estate developers were prohibited from building social housing. Today, they build more than half of it. Julie Pollard shares how two seemingly unrelated policies came together to make this rapid shift possible.

Show notes:

• Pollard, J. (2023). The political conditions of the rise of real-estate developers in French housing policies. Environment and Planning C: Politics and Space, 41(2), 274-291.
• Read about the Clichy-Batignolles eco-district (in English).
• Episode 20 of UCLA Housing Voice with Magda Maaoui (2022), on France’s social housing production and the SRU Law.
• Phillips, S. (2024). Lessons from California's Homekey Program: Adding Affordable Housing by Buying Market-Rate Apartment Buildings. UCLA Lewis Center for Regional Policy Studies.

In this episode, Shane combines insights from a recent trip to Tokyo with official data on housing production, affordability, land use policy, and more.

Show notes:

• Twitter thread of photos and observations during my trip.
• Episode 16 of the UCLA Housing Voice Podcast with Jiro Yoshida, on Japanese Housing Policy
• Japanese population by prefecture.
• JR East Yamanote Line timetable.
• Mainichi article on recovering transit ridership on the Yamanote Line.
• The myth of pedestrian infrastructure in a world of cars, by Joe Cortright in City Observatory.
• Data on housing starts vs. existing home sales in the US, Japan, and selected other countries – see pg. 137.
• Report comparing Japanese and United Kingdom homebuilding practices in the early 2000s, by James Barlow and Ritsuko Ozaki
• Construction Physics articles on Toyota’s prefab homes and Japan’s skyscraper factories.
• Yoshida, J. (2021). Land scarcity, high construction volume, and distinctive leases characterize Japan’s rental housing markets. Brookings Institution.
• Suzuki, M., Asami, Y., & Shimizu, C. (2021). Housing rent rigidity under downward pressure: Unit-level longitudinal evidence from Tokyo. Journal of Housing Economics, 52, 101762.
• Excerpt from Carmageddon: How Cars Make Life Worse and What to Do About It, written by Daniel Knowles and published by Abrams Press.
• Center for Neighborhood Technology’s Housing + Transportation Index.
• Iwata, S., & Yamaga, H. (2004). The costs and benefits of tenancy rent control in Tokyo. Institute of Policy and Planning Sciences, Discussion Paper Series, (1081).
• Guide to Japan’s zoning code.
• Urban Kchoze blog post on Japanese zoning.
• Zoning map of Tokyo.

Each year, more money is invested in China's housing market than any other. Lan Deng shares how the market was shaped and the heavy role the government still plays, and what housing in China looks like today.

Show notes:

• Deng, L., & Chen, J. (2019). Market development, state intervention, and the dynamics of new housing investment in China. Journal of Urban Affairs, 41(2), 223-247.
• Deng, L., Li, S., Zuo, W., & Han, Y. (2024). Housing production and the structural transformation of China’s real estate development industry. Housing Studies, 1-26.
• News article and video of rail line through apartment building in Chongqing.
• Monkkonen, P., Deng, G., & Hu, W. (2019). Does developers' ownership structure shape their market behavior? Evidence from state owned enterprises in Chengdu, Sichuan, 2004–2011. Cities, 84, 151-158.
• UCLA Housing Voice interview with Chua Beng Huat on Singapore’s Public Housing program.

For this episode, we take a trip to Tokyo to learn from the successes and shortcomings of Japanese housing policy. Known for high rates of production — Tokyo builds five times more housing than California, per capita — and relatively affordable housing, Japan also struggles with poor maintenance and rapid degradation of its buildings. Professor Jiro Yoshida of Pennsylvania State University and the University of Tokyo joins us to talk about the unique demographic, economic, and geographic conditions that led to Japan’s current housing context, and the underrecognized influence of depreciation and tax policy in the choices we make about where and how to live.

What makes people more or less supportive of dense housing in their communities? David Kaufmann and Michael Wicki surveyed 12,000 residents in six of the largest U.S. and European cities to find out.

Show notes:

• Wicki, M., Hofer, K., & Kaufmann, D. (2022). Planning instruments enhance the acceptance of urban densification. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119(38), e2201780119.
• Debrunner, G., Hofer, K., Wicki, M., Kauer, F., & Kaufmann, D. (2024). Housing Precarity in Six European and North American Cities: Threatened by the Loss of a Safe, Stable, and Affordable Home. Journal of the American Planning Association, 1-17.

Subsidized affordable housing development reduces costs for lower-income households directly. It also reduces costs indirectly, by increasing the overall supply of housing — or does it? Michael Eriksen joins to discuss the issue of “crowd out” in affordable housing production.

Show notes:

• Eriksen, M. D., & Rosenthal, S. S. (2010). Crowd out effects of place-based subsidized rental housing: New evidence from the LIHTC program. Journal of Public Economics, 94(11-12), 953-966.
• Cummings, J. L., & DiPasquale, D. (1999). The Low‐Income Housing Tax Credit: An analysis of the first ten years. Housing Policy Debate, 10(2), 251-307.
• Click here for Pathways Home, our eight-part series on homelessness.
• Baum-Snow, N., & Marion, J. (2009). The effects of low income housing tax credit developments on neighborhoods. Journal of Public Economics, 93(5-6), 654-666.
• Diamond, R., & McQuade, T. (2019). Who wants affordable housing in their backyard? An equilibrium analysis of low-income property development. Journal of Political Economy, 127(3), 1063-1117.