Despite intense diplomatic activity and multiple peace talks — including a recent third meeting between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul — the war shows no sign of ending. Western leaders appear to be preparing for a long-term conflict, with planning extending into 2026 and even 2030. However, the speaker warns this assumption is flawed, as Ukraine’s position is becoming increasingly fragile.

The focal point of the current fighting is Pokrovsk, a strategically vital city in eastern Ukraine. If Pokrovsk falls, it could lead to a collapse of the entire eastern front, potentially allowing Russian forces to advance deeper into Ukraine. Though Ukraine has shown remarkable resilience and defensive skill — delaying a collapse for over a year — it is increasingly stretched thin. The military fundamentals are deteriorating, and Ukraine’s forces are under growing strain.

Russia is making tactical advances around Pokrovsk on three fronts:

North (Rodynske area): Instead of directly assaulting strongholds, Russian troops are targeting supply routes to isolate Ukrainian forces.

Northeast (Myrnohrad area): Russians are maneuvering around high ground and fortifications to flank defenses and potentially cut supply lines.

Southwest: Russian reconnaissance and sabotage units have infiltrated the city, opening new paths for main forces to enter, bypassing heavily defended zones.

Ukrainian defenders have concentrated in high-rise buildings, a tactic that previously worked in cities like Bakhmut and Avdiivka, but Russia’s multi-directional approach risks surrounding and cutting off these positions.

The speaker concludes that despite Ukraine's heroism and tactical prowess, bravery alone cannot counterbalance logistical and strategic disadvantages, and the fall of Pokrovsk could mark a turning point in the war.

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