Universal Basic Kalshi Guys

The UBK Gang prices the chance that Ilhan Omar will be charged with a federal crime and takes a look at the Kalshi market for who will be charged with a federal crime this year with special attention paid to Cassidy Hutchinson and Kimberly Guilfoyle.

Brian Arbour, a political scientist at the City University of New York and an analyst on the Fox News election decision desk joins Evan to discuss the possibility of a Blue Wave in the midterm elections, the key battleground Senate races, and the most hotly contested House seats.

The UBK Gang discusses the market for whether Donald Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act, martial law, or suspend habeas corpus?

The UBK Gang searches for value in the market for the winner of Big Brother Season 28 with a close look at the pricing on Devens, Drew & Taylor.

The UBK gang reunites for Season 2 to discuss the Heritage Foundation and the Trump administration's attacks against higher education and the Kalshi market for whether Yale will settle with the Department of Justice over law school admissions.

Sunk cost fallacy is one of the most well-documented and costly cognitive biases in economics and psychology, and one that any successful investor or gambler must overcome. As the Summer of Learning continues, the UBK Gang explains what sunk costs are, why humans are psychologically wired to fall prey to this fallacy, and how to combat in your investing.

The Summer of Learning continues with an introduction to anchoring bias, the tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information encountered when making a decision, even when that information is arbitrary, irrelevant, or clearly wrong. The UBK gang goes deep on the seminal research of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky and how to combat anchoring bias in your own approach to prediction markets.

In May of 2026, Kalshi became the first company in U.S. history to offer CFTC-regulated perpetual futures contracts. As the Summer of Learning continues, the UBK gang explains what perpetuals are, how they work mechanically, and how they compare to options trading, which is the most familiar leveraged derivative for moat investors.

The UBK Gang's Summer of Learning begins with an introduction to prediction markets, including an explanation of the difference between prediction markets, parimutuel markets, and fixed-price wagering--and how market makers and takers work together to shape prices on Kalshi

Controversy recently exploded on Polymarket over the resolution of the more than $5.7 million mention market for whether the name "Donk" was uttered during a Counter Strike 2 broadcast. The UBK Gang takes a deep dive on how Polymarket resolves contested markets through the Optimistic Oracle and Universal Market Access coin--and the risks of corruption inherent in public resolution mechanisms. They also contrast the regulatory framework relied upon by Kalshi for approaching similarly contested markets. Special content for fans of game theory and the Nobel Prize-winning economist Thomas Schelling. (Link to the excellent New York Times article on the controversy below).