In some discussions (especially about acausal trade and multi-polar conflict), I’ve heard the motto “X will/won’t be a problem because superintelligences will just be Updateless”. Here I’ll explain (in layman's terms) why, as far as we know, it's not looking likely that a super satisfactory implementation of Updatelessness exists, nor that superintelligences automatically implement it, nor that this would drastically improve multi-agentic bargaining.

Epistemic status: These insights seem like the most robust update from my work with Demski on Logical Updatelessness and discussions with CLR employees about Open-Minded Updatelessness. To my understanding, most researchers involved agree with them and the message of this post.

What is Updatelessness?

This is skippable if you’re already familiar with the concept.

It's easier to illustrate with the following example: Counterfactual Mugging.

I will throw a fair coin.

• If it lands Heads, you will be able to freely choose whether to pay me [...]

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Outline:

(00:48) What is Updatelessness?

(05:03) A fundamental trade-off

(07:11) Multi-agentic interactions

(11:36) Is the trade-off avoidable?

(14:45) Superintelligences

(18:06) Other lenses

(20:57) Conclusion

(21:47) Acknowledgements

The original text contained 10 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:

Source:

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.