In this discussion, Professor John Mearsheimer argues that the West appears to be preparing for a prolonged or "frozen" conflict with Russia, even after the Ukraine war ends. He emphasizes that Russia's core demand—security from NATO expansion—doesn’t seem unreasonable and there's no evidence Russia intends further territorial expansion into Europe. Yet, the U.S. and its allies refuse to recognize or accommodate Russia’s security concerns.

Mearsheimer and the host both express discomfort at finding Russian narratives more coherent than their own government’s. They believe the U.S. is headed for a humiliating defeat in Ukraine and, rather than accept it, will double down—looking for ways to undermine Russia and regain leverage. This refusal to accept defeat raises the risk of re-escalation, especially in flashpoints like the Arctic, Kaliningrad, Belarus, Moldova, the Black Sea, and the Baltics.

Asked what President Trump could do differently, Mearsheimer says even if Trump tried to reverse course and negotiate a peace deal with Putin that accepted Russia’s demands, it would be nearly impossible to get Ukraine, Europe, or the U.S. foreign policy establishment to agree. However, one “less bad” option would be for Trump to broker a deal with Russia, withdraw U.S. military support, and leave Ukraine and Europe to accept or reject it on their own terms. While this could de-escalate the war, Mearsheimer doubts Trump would actually follow through or succeed in overcoming institutional resistance.

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