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The challenge with investing is that you can do everything right and still lose. Unfortunately its supposed to be that way otherwise everyone would take the biggest bets possible all the time and always win. That’s just not reality.
In good times, it is very hard to anticipate what could happen if the unexpected occurs. Over the last 24 months, we saw interest rates rise at a slope never before seen in the US economy. This was just a few months after the Federal Reserve called inflation “transient” signaling that it would not raise rates.
In hindsight, the subsequent rise in interest rates to curb inflation is all clear now but I don’t remember hearing anyone talking about the scenario before it happened.
As a result, many including me lost money and continue to hold our breath as rates start to level out. As much as we hate it, this is the way the system is supposed to work.
The thing is, all of what we are experiencing is going to happen again in one shape or another. Over the next few years, those with ice in their veins will buy when everyone else is scared. And hopefully, they will remember what this feeling we all feel now feels like and sell when things feel too good to be true.
As Sir John Templeton put it, the most dangerous words for an investor are “this time, it’s different”.
It would be easier to accept this fact of investor life if it applied to the big boys as well. But it doesn’t. 2008 was the extreme example. The big banks lost big bets. Had those bets come to fruition, they would have made lots of money. But they didn’t win those bets. And the taxpayer paid for their losses and all of the lawmakers said it would never happen again.
But it did. In 2023, the taxpayer stepped in to bail out multiple regional banks. This time, those banks weren’t even being irresponsible. They were investing in a way that would be deemed conservative. Yet, they too were the victim of unparalleled rate hikes by the Fed.
Lucky for them, they were banks and not individuals like us. What happened with those regional banks and is it likely to happen again? My guest on Wealth Formula Podcast this week is a brilliant Professor at Stanford who was brought in to investigate the regional bank failures in Silicon Valley.
When she talks, the government and people like Jamie Dimon listen. See what she has to say about the current state of the banking system and how it affects you.
Show Notes:
08:29 What is wrong with the banking system?
11:34 What went wrong in Silicon Valley?
13:58 How do FDIC rules work?
24:20 What should have been done in 2008 to prevent this from happening again?
28:28 Will what is happening to Silicon Valley happen to the rest of the country?
31:44 Is it still risky out there?
During college, I spent a summer working in a laboratory at the University of Chicago where my biochemistry mentor did his PhD. The lab studied prostate cancer and was the legacy of Charlie Huggins, a surgeon who won the Nobel prize for discovering the testosterone dependence of most prostate cancers.
The guy who took over that lab was his protege Shutsung Liao who did some trailblazing work of his own. He was brilliant and for a young biochemistry geek like me was fascinating to be around. He thought differently than most. His thoughts were original.
And that’s what he demanded of people in his lab. In fact, one of the particularly unusual philosophies he had for his postdocs was “do not read too much”.
He felt that reading others work had a role in learning what was known but also could be detrimental in that it could unduly influence the direction of one’s own thoughts. In other words, he didn’t want his postdocs to simply follow and expand on the ideas that others were proposing. He wanted them to have their own ideas.
That idea has always stuck with me and I was reminded of it the other day when a fellow podcaster asked me which podcasts I listen to. He, of course, assumed that I listened to a bunch of other personal finance shows.
I listed my top shows for him which included Purple Daily (Minnesota Vikings Football) and The Drive with Peter Attia which is about health and longevity.
The truth is, I don’t listen to any other investing shows. I used to, but I realized it was a little bit of an echo chamber in the alternative investing podcast ecosystem. And just like Dr. Liao warned about in that cancer lab, I started just saying and believing what other podcasters were saying.
I’m fortunate enough to be interviewing economists and other smart people every week so I’d rather formulate my own ideas based on what I learn from them. One thing is clear, they don’t agree with each other!
For those of you who listen to me, I highly encourage you to listen to others—especially those who do not agree with me. It’s important to hear the ideas of multiple sources when it comes to something that you want to know about.
Economics is not a hard science. It is a social science based on theory. Similarly, personal finance is…personal. So it’s best to learn many different perspectives and philosophies out there and see what resonates with you.
And sometimes, it’s good to get together with others and compare notes. And that is exactly what I’m going to do on this week’s episode of Wealth Formula Podcast. I am going to sit down with another well-known financial podcaster and see what he’s been hearing on his end.
Exposure to different thoughts is critically important when you make important decisions in your life, like what to do with your money. So make sure to listen in to this week’s interview with MC Laubscher aka The Cashflow Ninja and see what he has to say.
Show Notes:
00:09:34:09 Where are we in the economy?
00:19:56:18 What to look for as indicators of how the economy is doing?
00:24:51:06 Permanent life insurance in volatile times
00:32:16:16 Don’t let losing make you too scared to invest
00:37:05:09 Changes in tax code
00:47:02:06 Diligence in the cashflow world
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