Author and financial expert, Chris Whelan, joins Keith as they explore the intricacies of the housing market's potential future.

Chris drops an intriguing prediction of a possible 20% price correction. They dive deep into the complex world of real estate, examining the pandemic's significant impact on mortgages and economic trends.

The conversation reveals the behind-the-scenes challenges of the housing market, from government interventions to the nuanced effects of interest rates and forbearance programs.

They unpack the struggles in commercial real estate, particularly highlighting the unique challenges in markets like New York's rent-controlled properties.

Chris's new book "Inflated: Money, Debt, and the American Dream" promises an insightful journey through America's economic transformation, tracing how the nation evolved from an agrarian society to a global economic powerhouse.

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Complete episode transcript:

 

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai 

 

Keith Weinhold  0:01  

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, what's the state of the housing market for the next five years, and could what's happening in the foreclosure market affect it? I see relative housing market price stability. My guest sees cracks. This could be somewhat of a debate today, then two great new cash flow and real estate markets in the same state that we're helping your portfolio with on get rich education, mid south home buyers, I mean, they're total pros, with over two decades as the nation's highest rated turnkey provider. Their empathetic property managers use your ROI as their North Star. So it's no wonder that smart investors just keep lining up to get their completely renovated income properties like it's the newest iPhone. They're headquartered in Memphis and have globally attractive cash flows and A plus rating with the Better Business Bureau and now over 5000 houses renovated. There's zero markup on maintenance. Let that sink in, and they average a 98.9% occupancy rate, while their average renter stays more than three and a half years. Every home they offer has brand new components, a bumper to bumper, one year warranty, new 30 year roofs. And wait for it, a high quality renter, remember that part and in an astounding price range, 100 to 180k I've personally toured their office and their properties in person in Memphis, get to know Mid South. Enjoy cash flow from day one. Start yourself right now at mid southhomebuyers.com that's mid south homebuyers.com.

 

Corey Coates  1:56  

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

 

Keith Weinhold  2:12  

Welcome to GRE from Edison, New Jersey to Edinburgh, Scotland, where I am today, and across 188 nations worldwide, I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are back for another wealth building week on get rich education. Today's guest came to me recommended. It came from a guest that we've had on the show here before, Jim Rickards and his daughter Ally Rickards. His name is Christopher Whelan. He has a distinguished background. Comes from a prominent family, and he's the author of a new book that just published a few weeks ago. His father, Richard Whelan, was the biographer of Joe Kennedy, and was advisor to presidents and Fed chairman and today's guest, his son there, Chris. He has done a lot of work in DC. He lives just north of New York City today. So I guess coming recommended from Jim Rickards and learning a few things about today's guest helped me want to host him on the show. So though I'm just meeting him for the first time right here on the show, as it turns out, I learned that he has mentioned on other channels that real estate prices could correct down 20% and fall back to 2020 levels. I absolutely don't see how that's possible in any way. I'm going to bring that up with him, so we'll see. This could turn into somewhat of a debate. Like I said last week, I believe that significantly falling housing prices. That's about as likely as grocery store prices falling back to 2020 levels. Yes, I am in Edinburgh, Scotland today. It's my first time here. My mom, dad and also my brother's entire family came over from the US to meet up. It's been great. We're taking in all the best sites, Edinburgh Castle, other castles, the Scottish Highlands, Loch Ness, though I don't believe in any Loch Ness monster at all. I mean, come on, what a hoax. And we're seeing some other sites, though it didn't really interest the others, which I could understand. I visited the home where Adam Smith once resided, and I might put my video about that on our get rich education YouTube channel, so you could check that out over there. Of course, Adam Smith is considered the father of modern day economics for his work on supply versus demand and the GDP concept, the invisible hand, concept, much of that work conveyed in his magnum opus, The Wealth of Nations, published in 1776 as for the present day, let's meet this week's guest, including me, meeting him for the first time.  

 

I'd like to welcome in a first time guest. He's the author of a widely acclaimed new book. It's named inflated money, debt and the American dream. It just released, and the book couldn't be more timely with the multitude of challenges related to inflation, many involving the housing market in his earlier books, he's been known, frankly, for just telling his readers the truth. He's worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in politics and as an investment banker for more than 30 years. Today, he runs Whalen Global Advisors. You've seen him on CNBC in the Wall Street Journal, and now you're hearing him on GRE Welcome to the show. Chris Whalen.

 

Chris Whalen  5:43  

Thank you, Keith, appreciate your invitation. 

 

Keith Weinhold  5:45  

Whalen is spelled W, H, A, l, e, n, if you're listening in the audio only, Hey, Chris, we're in a really interesting time in the economic cycle. We all know the Fed has a dual mandate, high employment and stable prices. What's interesting to me is, late last year, they cut rates by a full 1% and this is despite inflation being above target. Makes me wonder if they care more about high employment and they're rather willing to let inflation float higher. What are your thoughts? 

 

Chris Whalen  6:18  

I think historically, that's been the case. You know, the dual mandate Humphrey Hawkins, that drives the Fed's actions today was a largely socialist compromise between the Republicans and the Democrats. The Democrats wanted to guarantee everybody a job after World War Two, the legislation was really about soldiers and people who had served their country in many, you know, places around the world, for a long time, and then you would have the depression. So you had a whole generation or more of people that were looking for help when they came home. And that's what this was. But today, you know, there's another mandate, which is called keeping the treasury bond market open. We saw it was during COVID in 2020 President Trump got up, declared that people didn't have to pay their rent or their mortgages, and then didn't do anything. There was no follow up. At the time, folks in mortgage industry kind of looked at each other funny for about 60 days and said, What's going to happen? Because they have to advance principal, interest, taxes and insurance to protect the house. The first rule in mortgage finances protect the asset. But it all worked because the Fed dropped interest rates to zero and we had a boom. We refinanced two thirds of every mortgage in the United States, and that cash flow allowed the finance forbearance for millions of Americans. Now the unfortunate part, of course, was home prices went up double digits for six years. So why we had no affordability today? So, you know, it helped, but it certainly didn't help in some ways,

 

Keith Weinhold  7:48  

mortgage loan forbearance back in the COVID era about five years ago, where you could basically just skip your mortgage payment and then they increase the overall duration of your loan period.

 

Chris Whalen  8:00  

That's right. So you know, your government market, your conforming market, were falling. They also had various schemes, state forbearance for non agency loans. Nobody thought at all about the multifamily sector and the developers that didn't get paid for two years. And we're feeling the impact of that. Of course, today, that's probably the biggest pain point in US economy today is commercial real estate and multi family real estate, and neither one of them involves a consumer. So it gets no attention at all. You read about it in the specialty press, but that's about it. 

 

Keith Weinhold  8:34  

And by talking about multi family not affecting the consumer, you're just talking about who's on the owner side there?

 

Chris Whalen  8:40  

precisely if all of the consumers have problems, you'd hear about it, and you do, especially in some of the blue states. I live in New York, so we have some of the more aggressive rent stabilization, rent control laws in the country. And they go back to World War Two. They go back almost a century,

 

Keith Weinhold  8:58  

right? It's those people in the one to four unit space in residential real estate investing that really got the help there. 

 

Chris Whalen  9:06  

Well, at least, you know, the world didn't end. Imagine if all of those people had gone to foreclosure. The industry wouldn't have done that. Of course, they would have thrown up their hands and cried for help. But the point is, they made it work. But the cost of making it work that zero interest rate regime that the Fed put in place is still being felt today. If you look at banks which typically have prime large mortgages on their books, the loss given default is zero. Home prices are so high that if somebody actually goes to foreclosure, they sell the house, they pay off the loan easily, and there's usually a large residual left, which would go to the homeowner. So today, you know, if somebody gets in trouble, we do a short sale, we do a deed in lieu, and off they go. And that's why the stats don't show you the pain that many American families are feeling today, because about 60% of all payoffs of one to four family mortgages are people who. Are exiting the market, they're not going to buy another house. So what that means is that the cost of home ownership, or whatever other factors are involved, has made them make the decision not to go to another home mortgage. 

 

Keith Weinhold  10:13  

Yes, we have this historically low affordability that's beginning to be reflected in the home ownership rate. It's trended down from about 66 to 65% recently, we continue to be in this environment here, Chris in the one to four unit space, where those existing homeowners are in really good shape. They have record high equity levels of over 300k A lot of them have their home paid off. About 40% of American homeowners own their home free and clear, and of the remainder, those borrowers, 82% still have a mortgage rate of under 5% and of course, that principal and interest payment stays fixed. So even if there's economic hardship, it's pretty easy for people to make their payments and stay in their homes.

 

Chris Whalen  11:02  

Well, it certainly is for most of the marketplace. If you look at the bottom 20% the FHA market, also the VA market, there's a little more stress there. There's still an awful lot of people who are in various types of forbearance in that market. That's going to end in October. So the Trump administration is pushing most of the rules back to pre COVID approaches for delinquency, for example, what we call the waterfall. And what that basically means is that if an FHA borrower gets in trouble, they'll have one shot at a modification where they lower the loan cost and stick part of the loan out the back to be paid off when the house is sold. If that doesn't take, if they don't re perform, then they're going to go to a foreclosure. We just ended another program for veterans. You know, they had three weeks notice, so now you're going to see a lot of veterans going to foreclosure. Unfortunately.

 

Keith Weinhold  11:56  

yes, this administration is basically making sure that people are responsible or resume their payments. We've seen that student loan repayments needing to resume as well. Most foreclosure rate types are still pretty low, but yes, FHA foreclosure rates are higher than those for conventional loans. 

 

Chris Whalen  12:15  

Yeah, the interesting thing is, the veterans delinquency rate is half of the FHA rate, and even though people in uniform don't make a lot of money, they pay their bills. Yeah, it's quite striking.

 

Keith Weinhold  12:25  

Why don't you talk to us more about areas where you see distress in the housing market before we talk about more inflation? Chris, the

 

Chris Whalen  12:34  

key areas of housing stress at the moment are commercial real estate that has become underutilized. COVID drove a lot of this, but also the fact that industries could change their work practices. It could have people work from home. Look at housing. We sent everybody home in 2020 while we increased headcount by a third to address a surge in lending volume. It was insane. I gotta tell you, we were hiring people that we didn't see for months that changed the business model assumptions for a lot of industries. A lot of them moved out of blue states and went down to Florida and Texas. In the mortgage industry particularly, and so we have a lot of older real estate particularly, that is suffering. It has dropped in terms of appraised values. You also have higher interest rates and higher cap rates, that is to say the assumption of returns on the part of investors. So that hurdle has made a lot of these properties impaired, essentially. And then the other subclass is older multifamily properties. Think about those beautiful old apartments in the middle block up on the east side or the west side of Manhattan. They're not big enough to be viable, and so they have become this kind of subprime asset class, much in the way if you recall the signature bank failure, they typically bank these sorts of real estate properties, and now there's nobody that wants them. I think you're going to see some very specific pain coming out of HUD, and also Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac because they bank some of these smaller properties that really aren't bankable by commercial banks. That's what it comes down to. If you're going to read about this and hear about it a lot in the commercial market over next several years. And again, you know, the losses on bank owned multifamily properties today are averaging 100% so that means that there are a lot that have more expenses than simply losing the full loan amount. And you know, if you want to have a bank loan, they're not taking these properties. They don't want them, right? So the bank, REO rate, if you look at the data from the FDIC, is zero. And what that tells you is that they can't sell the properties they don't want them, because if they take ownership, the city's not going to let them abandon the property. They'll have to keep it and maintain it. It's a tough situation. This is. Has evolved over the last 20 years or so, because consumer incomes have been kind of stagnant in real terms. But the cost of operating a property in New York City is not going down. It's going up quite a lot, and the legislation we've seen from Albany doesn't allow owners to recapture expenses, doesn't allow them to renovate apartments. So if I have a rent stabilized apartment, I'll use a real example, in a beautiful building on Central Park South right, to renovate a unit that's been occupied for 20 years, new kitchen, new bathroom, sir, everything services. That's $150,000 so if I'm the owner and I can't recapture that cost. What do I do? I lock the door, I gut the apartment, and I lock the door, and I hope that the laws will change in the future, because I can't rent it, my insurance underwriter will not allow me to rent out an apartment that's not brought up to code. That's New York law, but the folks in Albany don't care about that. We have some really unreasonable people in positions of authority, unfortunately, in some of these states, and you talk to them about these issues, and they don't care. They just pander to consumers, regardless of whether or not it makes sense or not. And that's just the way it is.

 

Keith Weinhold  16:15  

Those evil landlords, quote, unquote, most right evil. They're just mom and pop investors that are trying to beat inflation with real assets, and they have real expenses. Rent Stabilization basically just being a genteel term for rent control, which gives no one an incentive to improve a property for sure

 

Chris Whalen  16:35  

and it reduces the availability of housing ultimately, because nobody builds. You see that in New York right now the home market is pretty tight, up to the conforming limit for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac so you figure a million, 1,000,002 here in New York. But above that, it's quieted down quite a lot. There's compression in some of the higher end homes. And you know, if you go down south, you see a different problem, which is over building. They didn't want to build here, so they went down to the Carolinas and Texas and Florida. There's a huge amount of both multi family condo type developments and single family homes too. But above that average price level way above half a million dollars.

 

Keith Weinhold  17:15  

Sure, it's made this dynamic where things have been flip flopped in the Northeast and Midwest, where the populations aren't growing very fast, those markets have been appreciating more than those in the high growth southeast, all coming back to supply. They're not bringing on enough new supply in the Northeast and Midwest, Chris has just laid out a few reasons for that, due to this high regulation. And then in the southeast, a high growth area, even though that's where people are moving, we're not getting much appreciation there, because you're able to build and that supply is able to keep up with demand. Well, Chris and I are going to talk more about the housing market and about inflation. When we come back, you're listening to get rich education. Our guest is Chris Whelan, the author of a great new book. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold.

 

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Kathy Fettke  19:45  

this is the real wealth network's Kathy Fettke, and you are listening to the always valuable get rich education with Keith Weinhold. 

 

Keith Weinhold  20:00  

You welcome back to get rich education. We're talking with the author of a great new book, Chris Whelan, it's called inflated money, debt and the American dream. Chris, I see the residential housing market and their price points as being resilient. I'm kind of looking around and seeing if you have any places where you think that there are any cracks in that? I've heard you talk elsewhere about a housing price correction. Were you talking in the one to four unit space? And how do you think that could happen?

 

Chris Whalen  20:31  

I didn't come up with that idea. I did a biography of my good friend Stan middleman, who's the founder of freedom mortgage. It's a real rags to riches story of a successful entrepreneur, a great guy, by the way, is a beloved man in the mortgage industry. And so what he believes is that cycles are about a decade in terms of human behavior. And he says misery on the eights, which is kind of a cute way of saying it. And what Stan is basically saying is you eventually see so much price appreciation that affordability goes to zero. You run out of buyers, is another way to put it. And then once the Fed gooses it, he thinks we see an interest rate decline this year next year, perhaps you get rates to run a little bit. You get volumes to jump the way they did last summer. You remember, in the third quarter, we had great volumes in the mortgage industry, carried everybody through to the end of the year, and then after that, he says, we get a price correction, maybe back down to 2020 21 levels. So we're talking about a 20% price correction, and we're talking about the loans that have been made in the last few years being underwater. That's something we haven't talked about in a long time. We haven't talked about that since 2008 so I think that Americans inevitably have to see some kind of a correction. What the Fed did was wrong, what they did was excessive. I write about that in the end of my book, but unfortunately, the result is home prices that have galloped along, and eventually you got to reset it. Part of its supply coming online. Part of it is simply, like, I say, you run out of buyers, and when it's simply that purchase buyer who is either all cash or happens to have the deposit, and that's all you have. And there's no flexibility for people that want to get into the market. You know, that's tough. I could recall Paul Volcker years ago, we were talking about that in the book too. He ratcheted down home prices. He raised interest rates so much that home prices went down, and a lot of builders went out of business who had had a lot of snls go out of business, and, you know, the previous decade. So that was a tough time. We didn't even start to do that this time around, because they were afraid to the Fed is worried about keeping the Treasury market open, so they are afraid of deflation, which unfortunately means you don't get those opportunities to get into the market. I remember my parents, when I was very young, they would buy busted homes in Washington, DC. It was a great way to make a lot of money, and in five years, the House would double. That's the kind of market Washington was

 

Keith Weinhold  23:05  

in my opinion, I don't see how there could be any substantial residential home price correction. Historically that happens when there's a wide swath of homeowners that get into financial trouble, like I was talking about earlier, the homeowner is in great financial shape today. In fact, since World War Two, we've only seen home prices drop substantially during one period. That was that period around 2008 and that's when we had conditions that are opposite of what they are today. We had loans underwritten with liar loans. We had an over supply of homes, like I was saying earlier, inflation can't touch one's principal and interest payment. We're still under supplied with homes. Most experts don't think we'll get that into balance for at least five years. I really don't see how home prices could fall substantially. I also don't see how they could rise substantially, like, say, 10% due to that low affordability, but I expect continued stability in prices? 

 

Chris Whalen  24:02  

Well, we'll see. I'm not as sanguine about that, because a lot of people feel house rich on paper, but when the bottom of the stack is really hurting as it is now, FHA delinquency rates really are in probably the mid teens. You don't see that yet in the middle with the 727, 40 FICO type borrowers. But I think over time you could, and if, again, it depends on the economy and some other factors, but I'll tell you right now, you're already seeing a correction in the hyad the bottom half, no. And there's a supply problem here, which I agree with you on. It's going to keep those home price is pretty firm. And even where I am in New York, for God's sake, Keith, there's no construction here. So we just had a house across the street from me go from million one. I live in Sleepy, hollow New York, and you know, this is typically around the conforming limit for prices for most of these homes, and it went for 150 $1,000 over the ask, it was crazy. Went in two weeks now, during COVID, we saw this sort of behavior, and we thought, Well, okay, you had zero interest rates. I got a 3% mortgage, by the way, awesome. But here we have a situation when markets cooled down a lot, and yet the lack of availability is really the driver. So in that sense, I agree with you, but I do think the high end could correct rather substantially.

 

Keith Weinhold  25:24  

 And of course, in multi family apartments, that's different. That's where values in a lot of markets have been depressed by more than 30% they were subject to those interest rates being jacked up, and we're still going to see balloon loans mature and people default on those in apartments. The pain is not over with air, but at some point that's going to bottom out, and that'll be a buyer opportunity in apartments.

 

Chris Whalen  25:47  

 Well, the thing is, new stuff is going fine. It's what happens is when the new gets built, the older assets down the road get discounted. That's really what's going on. People love new as you know, these kids love a new house, as opposed to an older house.

 

Keith Weinhold  26:02  

Yes, that'll help reset the prices in the new market when you can compare those to what existing values are. Well, Chris, talk to us more about your new book and what the overall thesis of the book is in these critical times. 

 

Chris Whalen  26:16  

Inflated is meant to help people understand how our country went from agrarian, sleepy, isolationist America in the 1900s to being the dominant economy in the world and the provider of global money. We talk about how we got here. We talk about Abraham Lincoln and Franklin Roosevelt and many other characters. Obviously, we had to talk about Andrew Jackson, who is now embodied in our president, Donald Trump. We try and frame how this is all going to evolve in the future. And my thesis is basically the global currency role is something you get during or after a war. We took the baton from Great Britain after the First World War, and then by the end of World War Two, everybody in the world was broke, except for us. It was last man standing. And so rebuilt the world. We let everybody take advantage of us, and now President, who's saying, Nope, we got to change this. I think if it wasn't Trump, it would be somebody else. To be honest with you, Americans are tired of high inflation. They're tired of some of the other costs that come along with being the global reserve currency, so we try and frame all of this in an understandable way. And I particularly talk about housing during COVID and how that all really, I think, changed things for many Americans. Home ownership has been one of the basic ways we create wealth in this country, and the fact that we didn't have an opportunity for people to get in cheap with a fixer upper or a house that was foreclosed. You know, I think it's unfortunate, but the system just can't tolerate it. We've gone in 2008 and then in 2020 through two very significant crises when the government bond market stopped working. So we talk about that as well.

 

Keith Weinhold  28:03  

I don't predict interest rates. I think it is really difficult to do you mentioned earlier about the prospect for lower interest rates coming. Everyone wants to know about coming. What's your outlook for the future of interest rates and inflation for just say the next five years? Chris, 

 

Chris Whalen  28:19  

I think interest rates will drop. That is to say what the Fed controls, which is short term interest rates. In the next year or so, we'll have a little bit of a boom as a result. But I think the concern about the federal deficit and US debt, the volatility caused by President Trump's trade strategy, and just general I think a sense of uncertainty among investors is going to keep long term interest rates higher than we saw during COVID And really the whole period since 2008 the Fed bought a lot of duration and took it out of the market, so they kept rates low. They're not going to do that as much in the future. I don't think they'll buy mortgage securities again, they are very chastened by that experience. So if they don't buy mortgage backed securities, and if the banks don't become more aggressive buyers, and I don't think they will, then you know, the marginal demand that would drive mortgage rates down is just not going to be there. Banks have been holding fewer and fewer mortgages and mortgage backed securities on their books for 35 years. If you look at the growth in the industry, the dollar amount of one to four family mortgages hasn't changed very much. So when you look at it that way, it's like, you know what's wrong? Two things. They want to only make mortgages to affluent households. They want to avoid headline risk and litigation and fines and all of that. And I think also, too some of the Basel capital rules for banks discourage them from holding mortgages and mortgage servicing rights, which is an area I work in quite a lot.

 

Keith Weinhold  29:55  

It seems to me, like increasingly, the powers. It be the United States government just won't let the homeowner fail. They want to do so much to promote home ownership over the long term, we see relative ease with getting a mortgage. We've seen lower down payment requirements during other times, including COVID. We see the government jump in with things like mortgage loan forbearance and an eviction moratorium for renters. They just don't want to let people lose their homes. It just seems like there's more propensity to give homeowners a greater safety net than ever. Well,

 

Chris Whalen  30:29  

we've turned it into an entitlement. Yeah, and Trump is changing that at the federal level. The states, the blue states, are going to continue to play that game at the state level, and they can even have state moratoria. But what's going to happen, and I think sooner rather than later, is you may see the federal agencies start to tier the states in terms of servicing fees, simply to reflect the cost. It takes over 1400 days to do a foreclosure in New York. Gosh, that is a big problem. You can lose the lien in New York now, it takes so long. So I think that, you know, from an investor perspective, from a developer perspective, it's not an attractive venue. That's just the reality. Then you even California is as progressive and as activists as it is, you can still get a foreclosure done very quickly using the trustees. It's just a totally different situation. If there are complications, you can get into a judicial foreclosure, which will take longer. But still, California works. New York is deliberately dysfunctional. We have people in the state legislature who are in foreclosure themselves, and they keep passing these laws. So, you know, I think at the federal level, you're going to see it roll back to pre COVID, but I will say that forbearance, both with respect to the agency and conventional market and private loans, is kind of the rule. Now we work with the borrower much more than we would in the past. It's it is really night and day.

 

Keith Weinhold  32:00  

Chris, your new book has gotten a lot of acclaim. Let us know anything else that we should know about this book, and then if we can get it in all the usual places

 

Chris Whalen  32:10  

you can buy it at Barnes and Noble Amazon. I have a page on my website, RC, waylon.com, with all the relevant links. But the online is the best way to get it. Most of the sales are on Kindle anyway, but well over 90% are online, so we don't have to worry about physical books. I think we'll be doing some book signings in the New York area. So we'll definitely let you know about that.

 

Keith Weinhold  32:33  

One last thought is that the rate of inflation means more to a real estate investor than it does to a layperson, maybe five times as much or more, because when we borrow for an income property, our asset floats up with inflation. That part's really just a hedge on inflation. Our debt gets debased by inflation, which is really a mechanism for profiting from inflation over time. And then, thirdly, our cash flow tends to go up even faster than the rate of inflation, since our principal and interest stays fixed, so real estate investors can often be the beneficiary of inflation. It's sort of strange to go root for a force like inflation that can impoverish so many people. But what are your thoughts with respect to real estate investors and inflation?

 

Chris Whalen  33:19  

Well, you know, it's funny when Jerome Powell at the Fed says that they have a 2% inflation target, my response is, well, we better have at least 2% inflation if we're going to make commercial real estate work. Commercial real estate went up for 75 years after World War Two. I can remember when I was in the rating business at Crowell bond ratings going to see some of the banks here in New York, their multifamily books had only seen the equity underneath the asset go up and up and up. In other words, the land ended up being 90% of the value, you know, 1520, years after the purchase and the improvements were almost worthless simply because the land appreciated so much. Now that has changed since COVID. A lot of commercial real estate, particularly has gotten under a bit of a cloud. You've seen falling prices. However, in parts of the country that are growing where you have a positive political environment, positive economic environment, you're still seeing fantastic growth in both commercial and multifamily markets. So I think being very careful and patient in doing your homework in terms of picking venues is more important now than ever before. You know, I'll give you an example. Down in Florida, we're building new malls every day. The mall down the road that's 15 years old. There's nothing wrong with it, but it's 15 years old. And so the price discounts that you're seeing for existing assets are rather striking. Same thing down in the Carolinas, down in, you know, Atlanta, and going down to the Texas growth spectacle, I'm always astounded by what's going on in Texas. They built so much in that whole area around South Lake, out by the airport. It, they're going to basically subsume used it. So, you know, in those markets, you have great opportunities, but you also have over building. And so we're going to see some cycles where they're going to be deals out there for projects that maybe were a little too ambitious have to get restructured, and astute investors can come in and do very well on that

 

Keith Weinhold  35:20  

like we often say around here, in real estate investing, the market is typically even more important than the property itself. The name of Chris's new book, again, is inflated money, debt and the American dream. It has an awful lot of intersections with real estate investors and how they can play inflation. Uh, Chris has been a terrific conversation about the real estate market and larger market forces. It's been great having you here on the show.

 

Chris Whalen  35:47  

Thank you, Keith. Let's do it again.

 

Keith Weinhold  35:49  

Yeah, some good insights from Chris, a smart guy. And gosh, what a really sad state for rent stabilized apartments in New York City, where landlords of some of those properties, they would have to spend sometimes hundreds of 1000s of dollars in order to bring them up to code, but then they couldn't charge enough rent to offset those expenses due to government intervention and price fixing, so landlords just lock up the property vacant. And this sort of harkens back to when we were talking about some of this last year, when we had documentary film maker jen siderova on the show with her film called shopification, and it was about how rent control slowly makes neighborhoods fall into disrepair. All right, Chris and I had some difference of opinion there on the prospects for a home price correction. I think I made most of my points. He did, though, talk about running out of home buyers. If I have him back, maybe I'll pick up right there. More buyers are baked into the demographics, like I think I shared with you one time the US had its highest ever birth rate years between 1990 and 2010 more than 4 million births per year for a lot of those years. Just to review this with you, you might remember that 2007 was the US is peak birth year. Add 38 years to that for the average first time homebuyer age, and that housing demand won't even peak until 2045 and it will continue to stay high for a few years after that. So that's where the demand is just going to keep coming from, just piling on. And when I say that loan conditions have eased for American homeowners, like I did there during the interview, of course, what I'm talking about is the long term. I mean, lending conditions got more rigid after 2008 and with the adoption of Dodd Frank. What I'm talking about is, before the Great Depression, it was most common to have to make 50% to 60% down payments on property, and you had to repay the entire note in five to 10 years. I mean, can you imagine how that would hurt affordability today and then later, by 1950, 15, year loans were the common one. I mean, even that would impair affordability today. Today, 30 year loans are the common one, and you can put as little as 3% down on a primary residence. A lot of people don't know that either. It does not take 20% on a primary residence. So that's what I mean about the relative ease of credit flow today. Now, Chris has knowledge about other parts of the real estate market that I don't for his work inside DC and in other places like the foreclosure market. We talked about some of that right after the interview. For example, He was letting acronyms like NPL roll off his tongue, and I had to ask him what that meant. That's a non performing loan. Check out Chris's new book. Again, it's called inflated money debt in the American dream. And again, his website is RCwhalen.com and Chris also has a great sense of history, which we didn't get into, longtime real estate guys radio show co host Russell gray and I will discuss monetary history here on the show soon. Like I said, I'm coming to you from Edinburgh, Scotland this week, even if you don't see great sites, you know, it's interesting just walking the historic streets here, if you're an American that's visited here before, you surely know what I mean. And I told you that I'd let you know, the current real estate transaction I'm involved in is paying $650 a night for the hotel here in Edinburgh. Yes, that's a lot. I've actually paid less for fancier places in Dubai, but this hotel here is on the Royal Mile. Of course, I could have found less expensive accommodations elsewhere. 

 

Speaking of less expensive, here's an announcement. And we have new investment property providers at GRE marketplace, two of them, the markets are both in Oklahoma, and they are Oklahoma City and Tulsa, Oklahoma as a state, is known for landlord friendly eviction processes and legal systems, kind of the opposite of New York. So this makes your property management more predictable. Now, when we look at this city, OKC has the lowest priced new single family rentals. I can think of it under 160k Yes, that really puts the exclamation point on inexpensive and favorable rent to price ratios often exceeding 1% which is obviously attractive for cash flow, meaning a 150k single family rental could yield over $1,500 in rent. There's high rental demand in certain sub markets. We have scouted out those exact places for you in the OKC metro, like Edmond Moore spelled M, O, O, R, E, and Midwest City, all supporting consistent rent income, though it was once really oil dependent, OKC has diversified economically, reducing your risk tied to commodity cycles and ok sees local economy that's supported by industries including aerospace, energy, health care and logistics. Then there's Tulsa. Tulsa has the highest cash flowing new build duplexes, perhaps anywhere in the US that I know about. On the single family rental side, a lot of Tulsa investors can find properties under 150k with monthly rents again exceeding 1% of the purchase price, clearly ideal. So yes, both Oklahoma City and Tulsa are now on GRE marketplace. You can either visit the pages and see them there, or one of our qualified, experienced GRE investment coaches. Meet with them. They can help guide you to the very best deals and show you the specific property addresses available right at this time for whatever best meets your needs. If you're looking to either start or expand to another market and you seek cash flow, you really need to consider Oklahoma. Yes, it is free to have a strategy session with an investment coach, whether that's for Oklahoma or other investor advantage regions. I often like to leave you with something actionable. You can start at GREinvestment coach.com start book a meeting for a free strategy session remotely. That's at GREinvestment coach.com, until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

 

Dolf Deroos  42:51  

Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Advice, opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC exclusively.

 

Keith Weinhold  43:14  

You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access and it's got pay walls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. It's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text gre to 66866. While it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text, gre to 66866.

 

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com.

Discover powerful strategies to maximize your rental property returns and minimize costly vacancies. Learn how top investors are transforming their approach to property management, from tenant retention techniques to smart staffing solutions.

Key Insights:

• Master the art of keeping great tenants and reducing turnover

• Understand when to scale your property management approach

• Explore innovative investment opportunities beyond traditional real estate

Market Trends Spotlight:

• Rental demand is on the rise

• Emerging investment options offer unique wealth-building potential

• Strategic diversification is key to long-term financial success

Explore alternative investment opportunities like sustainable teak forestry - a generational wealth strategy that offers:

• Low entry point

• Long-term growth potential

• International diversification

Whether you're a seasoned investor or just starting out, these insights will help you make more informed, profitable real estate decisions.

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Complete episode transcript:

 

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai 

 

Keith Weinhold  0:01  

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, learn how to reduce a giant operational expense that you'll have over time your tenant vacancy and turnover, including how many units you must own before you hire your own on site property manager as your employee. Whatever happened to agent commissions in light of last year's NAR settlement, then a timely update on teak tree investing today on Get Rich Education.

 

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You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

 

Welcome to GRE from Manchester, New Hampshire to Manchester, England and across 188 nations worldwide, I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are back inside one of America's longest running and most listened to shows on real estate investing. This is get rich education. What's all that stuff really mean? I'm just another slack jawed and snaggletooth podcaster, a shaved mammal with a microphone. I'm joining you from here in London, England this week for the first time ever on the show. More on that later. Let's talk about reducing the biggest operational expense that you're ever going to have as a real estate investor, at least the one that you can exert a good measure of control over. That is reducing your tenant vacancy and turnover, that constant menace. Now, I suppose you might say that property tax is your biggest ongoing ops expense, but you've got less control over your property tax rate. So yeah, we're talking about increasing your net income by lowering your VIMTUM operating expenses. Vacancy is the V in that acronym. This is big because this can make or break your ability to have your property create positive cash flow and getting tenant turnover right both increases your income and reduces your expenses. It is springtime currently, and it's soon going to be summer, so it is the right time to talk about this. It's when there is more tenant turnover. The goal here is for you to really move the dial in increase the likelihood that your tenant is going to renew their lease. Now, sure if your tenant gets a new job out of town, they're going to move out. But if they're moving because of too many maintenance issues, well then that's something that you could have fixed. The average tenancy duration in the US over time is two to three years. And of course, that's going to be longer in single family rentals and shorter in apartments. And how long your tenant stays is driven by three factors, the price of your unit, the quality of your maintenance and the quality of your management. Let's say that your tenant moves out. To be conservative, that your vacancy period is two months between tenants. Okay, that's the turnover and the time to lease. It two months is a somewhat longish vacancy period. But come on, it happens sometimes, especially if you're going to make upgrades between tenancies and you're busy with other things in your life, if you have a move out every year at that rate, well, that is too often. That would amount. To a vacancy percentage of 14% you might think it's 17% but it isn't, because it's a 12 month vacancy plus two vacant months, all right, but if instead that tenant moves out every two years, that's just 8% vacancy, and every three years that's just 5% vacancy. Of course, if you keep your vacancy period to only one month rather than two, you can have all those numbers. You can really see how you are increasing your income by retaining the tenant. The most vital thing for you to keep in mind is that fast quality maintenance and good communication are by far the best forms of customer service that a property manager can provide, so prompt, quality maintenance. That's a retention strategy. Being a proactive helps. One strategy you can engage in is to reach out to the tenants two months before their lease is set to renew, and that's the time to give them the new lease price and ask them if they intend to stay. If they say, No, they're not, ask them why. And occasionally, you can sway them if there's been a misunderstanding in your relationship, for example, a lingering maintenance issue that hasn't been addressed, and perhaps they didn't bother to contact you about that, if nothing else, I think I mentioned this to you one time before offering a small reward, like a gift card helps. I mean, creating this sense of reciprocation is really one of the best retention tactics out there, even if the items being reciprocated aren't anywhere near equal value, like the value of a 12 month lease versus you giving them, say, a $50 gift card now, say you've tried those strategies, and none of that works, and your tenant does decide to leave, perhaps 45 days from now, but you know that you've got time in your life to turn over the unit now, and You know that you're going to be really busy with other things in 45 days. One thing that you can do then is shift your strategy to pay the tenant. Say you can pay them as little as 10 or 20 bucks a day to leave early. This way they'll vacate during a period where you've got the time to devote to the vacancy and the turnover and the showings to prospective new tenants, and that way, it's not going to linger vacant as long now, a technique like this is a little similar to an eviction, where if a tenant has violated their lease or becomes non paying, without you having to go through the length of Your court driven formal eviction process, you can pay them a lump sum to leave early. Hopefully that's not your situation, but that can come up. And I think you've heard of it before. This is known as the Cash for Keys strategy. That means to get a tenant that's made some violation against their lease, and you want to have them vacate the unit sooner. This means that you get the keys in your hand and the right to enter when you pay them to leave, rather than having to go through the not so fun eviction process and see a tenant wants to avoid a formal eviction as well, because that goes on their record, and then it can make it tough for that tenant to get rental housing elsewhere. But I dislike the Cash for Keys strategy in order to hold off from a formal eviction, because what that does is that rewards a person that violated a lease, although we know that that might also shorten your economic vacancy period, and it could actually be economically beneficial to you, Cash for Keys. It's just not ethical, though. I know it might be tempting for you, the landlord, the cash for key strategy. It rewards societally immoral behavior. Now, of course, you might be using a professional property manager that does all of this stuff for you, like I do today, but still, these are often the best practices for your manager. And I started out self managing, just like a lot of real estate investors do in the beginning, and that's where I learned strategies and techniques like this for reducing your tenant vacancy and turnover. Now, here's a really interesting question that you may not have had to ask yourself yet, but you may down the road, if you've grown your portfolio to a certain size and you're serious about reducing your vacancy and turnover expense, it might be time to ask yourself one big question, and that is for your management and maintenance. Should you use contractors, or should you start to hire your own employees? Now, if you have a small portfolio, it won't be enough work for you to keep an employee busy, so you should go with contract. Contractors. On the other hand, if you have an apartment complex with on site property management, I would definitely recommend having a make ready crew on site, because it's just so easy for them to get to and from a job site. Now, you should still maintain relationships with contractors as a backup, of course, and you should also have specialists like plumbers, electricians and HVAC people ready to call now, most investors are small and they use off site management, but if you grow big enough someday, or maybe it's two day, the important point about employees is that you really need to stay on them, because every extra hour costs you. You don't want anyone out there who's thinking that speed isn't essential, because they're like, ah, you know, I get paid by the hour. Contractors, on the other hand, they quote you or your manager a job up front. So while an extra day hurts because it's one more day you can't lease the unit, it hurts less than it does if you have your own employees. One problem with contractors is they often can't start right away, and this tends to be more true if you're self managing. See if you use a professional manager. They might have their own in house people so you can leverage their employees without having to manage employees yourself, even if your manager brings in an off site contractor, like an electrician or a plumber. Well, that contractor probably gets a lot of business from your property manager, and they have some sense of loyalty to your property manager, therefore, they're incentivized to show up on time faster than if you're trying to self manage, say, your small portfolio of five properties, and you or your tenant are the ones that call the electrician or the plumber. Well, those contractors are going to be less likely to prioritize you and your infrequent requests, and this is just another reason that I like to employ professional management and not self manage. Now, virtually no new real estate investor is going to hire their own employees, and most are never going to at all. All right, but how do you know? How would you know when it's time to hire your own property manager or your own contractor, and have them on your own payroll and you are their boss, if you've got under 20 to 30 units, all right, typically third party property management or self management with contractors, that's going to make more sense, because having a full time, dedicated employee, it's just not financially justifiable. Below 20 or 30 units, you're not going to be able to keep that employee busy. And I'm generally talking about if you have one apartment building here, or a bunch of single family rentals, only if they're in small, close proximity to each other. What about if you grow up to 30 to 60 units? All right now you're in a gray area. If the property is something that's pretty management intensive, like high turnover, or you own an older building, or you generate a lot of work orders, or you're in a challenging area. Well, at 30 to 60 units, you might justify a part time on site person. So how that could practically work in this 30 to 60 unit gray area, what you can do is have a resident manager that gets free rent, plus perhaps a small stipend from you. Okay, so that's a strategy that you can play in this gray area zone. That way they can be responsive to tenant requests, and you can keep your vacancy and turnover costs down. All right, how about when you're going even bigger and you reach 60 to 100 units. Now you're in the range where a full time on site manager or a maintenance person, starts to make financial and operational sense, because here it's 60 to 100 units. Your staffing model, it might be that you have one full time manager, they do the leasing, the tenant relations, in the admin stuff, and you'll also have a second person, a full time maintenance tech if they're needed, all right? And the final tier here, if you reach more than 100 units, oh, okay, now it is standard for you to have a full on site team. You could be in the hundreds of units. So we're talking about a property manager, a leasing agent, a maintenance lead, a groundskeeper and sometimes also a part time assistant manager. So that's it. That's the hierarchy of how, based on your portfolio size and where they're located, how you can serve tenants well and reduce your vacancy and turnover expense. Yes. All right now, what are some things that can shift those thresholds, those unit counts? Well, high rent or luxury buildings, they often need on site staff at a smaller unit count, very low rent or section eight properties, they may need more intensive oversight, buildings that have amenities, like some of these newer apartment buildings that have a pool and a gym, okay, that can trigger some more staffing needs. And if you own multiple properties that are nearby to each other, well, then you can share employees across those properties. And you've got to look at local labor costs in places like New York City, northeastern New Jersey, parts of New England, Miami or LA, those high cost places. Then breaking even on staffing. That probably takes a bigger property than those numbers that I talked about. But here, we tend to invest in those investor advantage areas, the inland northeast, the South, in the southeast, in the Midwest. Now, if you've got, say, even 50 smaller properties, but they're scattered all over the place, in multiple states, well then of course, you're not going to hire employees. A good general metric to leave you with here is that one on site employee for every 50 to 80 units that you own in the same area, that is common, that is a common industry practice in market rate multifamily apartments right now, these are pretty timeless strategies I've been talking about with you here. 

 

As for what's happening in The market lately, I continue to slowly get more optimistic about the long beleaguered apartment market. A few weeks ago, I talked about how there's finally been greater apartment rent increases, although those rent increases are still historically low. What recently we learned that apartments are seeing a longer duration of tenancy and today, per real page, every single one of the 50 largest apartment markets has posted month over month occupancy gains, and then that's somewhat commensurate with what we're seeing on the one to four unit side, because the home ownership rate has fallen. It just fell from 65.7% down to 65.1 quarter over quarter. Now that doesn't sound like much, but that's actually a substantial drop in the home ownership rate in just one quarter. And fewer homeowners means more renters. So this basically means that the percent of Americans, renting has gone up because you just take the flip side of those numbers. So the rentership rate has essentially risen from 34.3 up to 34.9 in just one quarter. Something that completely makes sense, because we all know that home ownership affordability, especially for that first time, home buyer is lower, more renters. Is good for rental property owners. It's bringing more rental demand, more occupancy and more future pressure on rising rents. Now I want to follow up with you on a story from last year that made a lot of waves in the larger real estate world, but not so much for real estate investors. You surely remember this. That is the NAR settlement that a lot of people thought would result in lower real estate agent fees. Lowered commissions were coming. That's what everybody thought last year. Stories about that were all over the place that realtor fees are about to shrink. What's happened since then? Well, not much realtor fees, they still haven't fallen in any significant way, although the settlement was more than a year ago and this went into effect nine months ago. So to back up for a moment, in case you missed it, what happened is that a group of sellers accused the NAR, the National Association of Realtors, of inflating home costs by letting buyer side and seller side agents communicate about commission rates on the MLS home database, which only agents can see. And a jury agreed, so the NAR settled the lawsuit for over $400 million in damages, and it barred agents from sharing commission rates on those MLS databases. So that was a huge change that was expected to extinguish the globally high five to 6% realtor fee in the United States, because global averages are between one and 3% so as a result, the US real estate industry, they were bracing themselves for up to a 30% drop in the commissions that Americans pay annually in fees. But the new rules. Things have been nothing other than a big nothing burger. It only took a matter of weeks, really, for most agents to realize, you know, what did the agents do? They just simply moved their conversations off the NAR website and over to phone, text and email. That's it. Yes, that's all they did. So since that time, the average commission for buyers agents has barely budged. It ticked down less than 110 of 1% so for example, it ticked down less than 500 bucks on a 500k home that's per Redfin. So agents still expect sellers to pay five to 6% now I'm not against agents. Not only can an agent guide you through the process, what they can do is get you a higher sale price than they could have otherwise, because they really know how to market and advertise your property and reach a greater pool of buyers, but their commission rates have hardly budged. And of course, here at GRE marketplace, we typically use a direct model where agent compensation isn't priced into your properties anyway. 

 

To review what you've learned so far today, being proactive can help reduce your tenant vacancy and turnover expense and increase your income. Prompt, quality maintenance, that is a retention strategy in itself, as can having one on site employee for every 50 to 80 apartment units. And one year later, changes at the NIR really haven't reduced aging commissions appreciably. I'm coming to you from London, England today, taking in all the top sites, Buckingham Palace and watching the changing of the guard over there, Big Ben a Thames river cruise and the London Bridge, which is actually called Tower Bridge. The real estate transaction that I'm currently involved in here is paying $550 a night to stay here at a nice hotel in the center of the city. It's right near the Thames, kind of a steep rate, and I sure didn't have to stay right in the city center, where everything is more pricey. But that's the experience that I want to have. Next week, I'll bring you the show from Edinburgh, Scotland, where I'll be paying even more for a well located hotel right on the Royal Mile, and I'll tell you how much more then I am here to boost their economies, I suppose more next, including a really timely update. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to Episode 555, of get rich education. 

 

The same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your pre qual and even chat with President Chaley Ridge personally while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lendinggroup.com. That's Ridge lendinggroup.com. 

 

You know what's crazy? Your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back. No weird lockups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing. Check it out. Text family to 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund again. Text family to 66866.

 

Tom Wheelwright  24:21  

this is Rich Dad advisor, Tom wheelwright. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.

 

Keith Weinhold  24:37  

Welcome back to Episode 555, of get rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, with an episode number like 555, you would expect me to go deep with you on real estate pays five ways, but we did that five weeks ago on episode 550 with your audio masterclass right here on the show today, we're talking about something with less upside. Than say that or the inflation triple crown, and instead on reducing your downside, vacancy and turnover expense, next week here on the show, I expect to sit down with a guest that's a highly regarded financier and author of a fairly hot new finance book, Christopher Whelan, and next week's show could get really interesting, because I've heard Chris say something about how real estate prices could fall back to 2020 levels. In my opinion, that is so many levels of unlikely that happening is about as likely as your grocery bills falling back to 2020 levels. So we'll see it could turn into a debate next week with Christopher Whelan and I. He is a sharp, well informed guy that also used to work at the New York Fed. That's next week down the road, longtime and former co host of the real estate guys radio show, Russell gray will join us again here, and we'll see what he's been up to in his post real estate guys, radio life that's coming up in a few weeks. Lots of great future content here, monologs, yes, those slack jawed monologs For me, repeat guests and new guests joining in as well. Back to this week now, there's an intriguing and potentially lucrative investment that we've discussed on the show here before, and I do have a timely and crucial update about it. A little while back, I sat down with the teak operations principle when we were in New Orleans together. These are yes, those Panama teak tree plantations that so many of you have already invested in. Yes. So as it is here. I am an American in London today talking about teak trees in Panama and I interviewed our upcoming guest here when we were in New Orleans together, the teak investment has a long time horizon, because trees have to grow. There's also a low cost of entry and no loans available. This is a real estate investment. You can own the land with the title to it and the trees that grow on top of them. Historically, teak returns have been five and a half percent, which doesn't sound like much, but see it grows in board foot volume at the same time that the unit price grows. And if inflation runs high over the next 25 years, your return might be higher. But the reason that we're discussing this now is because the principal, Mike Cobb here meeting with me, he is going to mention a price, and this is key two weeks from today, on June 9, the price for the teak parcels increases substantially. I'll tell you about that shortly. So for GRE followers, you can get locked into the lower price for just two more weeks. Here's my chat from a little while back with the teak tree investment principle, and then I'll return to bring you more. 

 

Hey, did you know that you can own a quarter acre parcel of a producing teak plantation, you own the title to the land, and you get the growth in the trees. On top of that, this is something that you can do as an investor. And teak trees are a valuable hardwood that you own, typically in Central America. So there's a very low cost of entry to this investment, and that's what attracts a lot of people to it. And I am with Mike Cobb, the CEO. He's also the author of the new book how to buy your home overseas and get it right the first time. But Mike, a lot of people are interested in the teak investment because it is so approachable. Tell us about it. Give us a general overview.

 

Mike Cobb  28:42  

absolutely, you know, thanks for having me on. It's always nice to be with you. We're, we're having some fun here in New Orleans, which is terrific, you know, yeah, the teak plantation is something that I envisioned back in 1998 so what's that like 26 years ago? Right? And in 1999 we planted our very first 100 Acre teak plantation. Because what we thought about at the time, which has now proven true 25 years later, is that, you know, I was either going to need the money in 25 years and be really glad I did this, or I wasn't going to need the money in 25 years and I was going to be really glad I did this. You know what? I don't really need the money now, but I'm really glad I did this. And 25 years comes. And I think that's been really the challenge for a lot of people looking at teak. They're just like, ah, 25 years. It's too long, but 25 years comes. 25 years will come, and you can either have planted the trees and be ready to take this huge windfall of return, or you won't be getting a windfall return. So I think that's the challenge, the mental challenge, I think maybe an average investor has, but I know you work with superior investors because they're paying attention to what you're writing, they're watching your podcast, they're reading your newsletter. You have far superior investors than I would say, the average investor. So I think this is a great thing for folks to check out.

 

Keith Weinhold  30:00  

All right, so you're talking about the investment timeline, from the time a tea tree seed is planted until the harvest time that can feel like quite a while. You have been doing this over 25 years, and that is key when you as an investor go offshore or go overseas to have trust in a stable company that's been around for a long time. That's why, really, you're one of the few people that I work with who are outside of the United States real estate like the teak trees.

 

Mike Cobb  30:25  

Thank you. Yeah, we've been around for 31 years. I've been working in the region. 31 our development company is 28 years old. Our plantation is now 26 years old. 25 with the trees, but we bought the land 26 years ago. But the bottom line, you're right and and the other thing that we should care about. And you brought this up earlier, when we're kind of chatting, is country, what country are you planting trees in that you got to wait 25 years for them to mature and harvest? By the way, the Panama. By the way, Panama, and of all the countries in the region where I feel the most comfortable as an investor, Panama's yet, because Panama's got the canal. And I know people say, oh, yeah, that's right. It's a vital strategic US interest. It's a vital world interest. The Chinese care about it as much as we do. The Europeans care about it. Anybody who wants commerce to happen cares about that canal being open. And so you've got this country, Panama, that has the canal stable, economically stable, politically stable. And when starting to talk about 2550 7500, year time frames, because you own the land, you get the harvest in 25 years, you replant, and then your children get the next harvest, and your grandchildren get the next harvest. It is truly generational wealth. Stewardship

 

Keith Weinhold  31:41  

Panama is a little bit like investing overseas with training wheels on their well developed, first Central American nation. They even use the United States dollars. They do is that familiar? Absolutely well. But as the investors thinking about investing in teak plantations, just tell us about the properties of teak wood, of all wood types. Why teak? Tell us about the value there. 

 

Mike Cobb  32:00  

Yeah, teak has been grown in plantations, starting with the British back about 400 years ago. And so you've got centuries of plantation growing of teak as a crop, right? And so you've got this incredible longevity of information and things like that. And I know some of the stats off the top of my head, since 1972 the average price of teak lumber has has risen about five and a half percent a year over a 52 year period. Talk about track record, centuries of growing as a crop, right? 52 years as a lumber commodity. Look, people been using it to make ships. Its hardness is its most valuable characteristic is an extremely hard wood. It's resistant to rot fungus, so it's used in outdoor furniture, for example, right? Some of the stuff on the Titanic they pulled up from the bottom of the ocean, you know, chairs made a teak, right? Teak. But ship builders fine furniture, outdoor furniture and and they're cutting teak down. This is so important, they are cutting teak down eight to 10 times faster than anybody in the world is replanting it. So just imagine what that does to supply and demand and prices based on just basic economics, right?

 

Keith Weinhold  33:13  

Yeah, that is some scarcity. That is a really good point. Tell us about what you're surely interested in. What do the investor returns look like.

 

Mike Cobb  33:21  

Yeah. So you know, to own one of these quarter acre parcels, by the way, you said it before you own the land, you get title to the land you own the trees. $6,880 that's your that's your entry. Gosh. So for less than $7,000 you own a quarter acre of teeth trees that in 25 years projected returns. We all projections right about $94,000 a little over $94,000 so 7000 turns into $90,000 over 25 years, harvest, plant the trees again, and in 25 years, your kids or your grandkids will get the next harvest, and so on and so on. It is a powerful generational wealth stewardship. In fact, right now we have what we call give the gift of teak because look, you know, you got kids, you got grandkids. What are you gonna get them? Right? I mean, they got everything they want, presumably, right? You buy them a teak parcel, right? Buy that kid, buy that grandkid, a teak parcel. What a cool idea. Oh my gosh, in 25 years, you might be gone, right, but they're gonna get this big windfall, and they're gonna thank grandma or grandpa, right for for thinking of them 25 years into the future?

 

Keith Weinhold  34:27  

Yeah? Oh, I love that. And you're so proud about what you do. You regularly offer investor tour so that they come and see the teak. But maybe you know, for you, the investor, you're wondering, okay, if you're used to investing in us real estate, you might be making two leaps here. You'd be going from residential real estate to agricultural, and you'd also be investing in a nation outside your home country. And when it comes to those sort of questions, I think any savvy investor asks, okay, what are the risks involved with this investment? Can you tell us about that?

 

Mike Cobb  34:59  

Yeah, sure. Look, you've got political risk, country risk, political risk, which, I think again, of all the countries in the region, Panama, dollar, economy, canal, safe, stable. So the political risk is minimal. It's there. It's real. You know, fire risk is an issue, right? Trees burn. The good thing about teak is that after about year three, they're up. And you keep them trimmed, trim all the low branches off. So fire risk really drops incredibly low after about year three or four. But ultimately, it's about professional management. We have a company called Heyo Forrestal that we hired 25 years ago, 26 years ago, actually, to help us find the land, do the analysis of the land, make sure it was good for teak. And when you hire professionals, you get professional results. I mean, we stayed with this company for 26 years now, and the guy that we met early on, a little forestry engineer, is now General Manager and partner in the business. So we've watched that business grow up alongside ours at the same time. Those relationships, you know, Dolly Parton and Kenny Rogers have a song you can't make old friends. So here we are with Jacobo and some of the Luis that we've worked with for, you know, 26 years, and the relationships matter, especially in that part of the world, but professionalism and professional management is the key, and you have that alongside the relationships. Both are important.

 

Keith Weinhold  36:20  

yes. So we're talking about how the property manager is such an important part of your team, and you think about your single family homes or your apartment buildings. And Mike here is talking about the importance of professional management, because teak trees need a little management and pruning, and sometimes there are thinnings which can give you some income so that you don't have to wait 25 years. Correct another way in which you might not have to wait 25 years for the full harvest cycle is at times you can buy trees that are, say, already seven years old, so you can only be waiting 18 years, or that are teens, so you might only be waiting 10 years, or some things about that, those are some of the options. But Mike, before I ask you if you have any last word, if you want to learn more about this, get some information, learn more about it, and learn how to connect with Mike's team. He is one of our GRE marketplace providers, and he's the owner of that company. You can do that at gre marketplace.com/teak, any last thing someone should know about teak before they consider investing? Mike? 

 

Mike Cobb  37:16  

Yeah, well, two things you mentioned the tour. So we do run discovery tours. We have one coming up in January, end of January, two days, we go out to the plantation, the teenage teat plantation, by the way, oak, which is eight or nine more years to harvest. Then we're going to the sawmill, because all of our logs go through a sawmill to convert to lumber, which enhances the return to the investor. 

 

Keith Weinhold  37:36  

Do the teens sleep until noon? Or can we visit them

 

Mike Cobb  37:38  

and then they're on their phones all day If we're gonna go visit them. We'll wake them up and, like, get on their phones. But here's, here's the last parting word. I think it's scary for a lot of people. It is scary. You're going overseas, you're outside of, you know, residential you're going into a new industry. You're going to a new country. The reason this works for so many people, over 1000 now, have done this, is it's such a small bite, $7,000 and if that's maybe one or 2% of your portfolio, what I hate to say, put it on the table and roll the dice, but you'll be happy you did. I'm happy I did. It's a small bite, but that international diversification is so important. And then you put it in something that's absolutely not correlated to the market. It's not correlated to us real estate. I mean, in 2008 to 2012 when real estate was dying in the US, our trees just kept growing. So non correlated, non US, right? And non residential. I think that's the reason you want to take a little tiny piece of your portfolio and put it overseas in something like teak. 

 

Keith Weinhold  38:42  

We know over the long term that it has grown in value 5.5% a year, but at the same time, it grows in volume, in the amount of board fees you're getting a crease, an increase in both unit value and volume. It's really growing a couple ways. At the same time, you've had over 1000 different individual investors invest in the teak now, several dozen, maybe even more than 100 of those have been you the get rich education follower. So again, thanks for joining me, Mike. If you want to learn more, start at gre marketplace.com/teak. I'm Keith Weinhold. I'll see you next time. 

 

Yeah, good information from Mike there again for GRE followers, that 6880 price deadline is Monday, June 9, and then it goes to 8680, that is a 26% price increase, and this is because land and planting costs have skyrocketed. And you know, I have long wondered about when they were going to change that same lower price that they've had for a lot of years. The provider recently added a sawmill to convert logs to lumber, and that enhances investment returns. So when you inquire for more info, you can ask about that, and that could very well put them above the 94k per part. Possible projected payout. Teak, hardwood, it just has some amazing physical properties. It's not your run of the mill. Backyard. Maple, it is a real asset. Think of it as a forest that fights back against Fiat and the provider reputation and continuity are almost impeccable. They've even had the same forestry manager, yeah, sort of like a property manager for trees, because trees take things like prunings and thinnings, the same manager for all 26 years of the teak operation. In the future, I might join one of their teak investor tours in Panama, and if I do, I'll be sure to let you know so that we can meet up that might even be a GRE exclusive tour. What you really need to know now is that, again, the lower price is good until Monday, June 9, to get started or simply learn more, visit gre marketplace.com/teak, that's t, e, a, k, until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

 

Unknown Speaker  41:10  

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Keith Weinhold  41:34  

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Keith discusses the mortgage landscape, emphasizing the benefits of cash-out refinances with Ridge Lending Group President, Caeli Ridge.

They unpack the Trump administration’s plan to privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which could impact the mortgage market.

Investors are discovering powerful strategies to leverage property equity and optimize their financial portfolios.

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Consider working with a lender that specializes in investor-focused loan products and provides comprehensive education on the options available. 

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Complete episode transcript:

 

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai 

 

Keith Weinhold  0:01  

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, we're talking about the mortgage loan landscape in this era. Is title insurance a rip off today? Is it worth it for you to pay discount points at the closing table to get a lower interest rate? Learn about how a cash out refinance. Is your ability to borrow tax free, much like a billionaire does, and what are the dramatic changes that the current administration could take to alter the mortgage environment for years, all today on get rich education. 

 

Speaker 1  0:34  

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, who delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com

 

Corey Coates  1:20  

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

 

Keith Weinhold  1:36  

Welcome to GRE from Liverpool, England to Livermore, California and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are listening to get rich education, the voice of real estate. Since 2014 it's been estimated that there are about 800 billionaires in USA, and hey, you might be one of them, but there's a pretty good chance that you aren't well. When it comes to lending and mortgages, you can actually take a page out of a billionaires playbook and do something very much like what they do whenever you perform a cash out refinance if you've got dead equity in a property, and you can borrow against your own home to a greater extent than you can against your rental properties, even either one of those is a tax free event, you've now got tax free cash, and you can use that money on anything from investing it in the stock market To using your proceeds for a down payment on more real estate or buying a boat or going to Disneyland, and you didn't have to relinquish your asset at all. You continue to hold on to the asset. Now, the mechanics are somewhat different, sure, but when you do a cash out refinance like this, it's a bit like billionaires borrowing against their stock. Instead, you're borrowing against the value of your real estate. In fact, listening to this short clip, it's Trevor Noah talking about how billionaires do exactly this, and you'll notice that the crowd laughs because it actually sounds funny that you can really do this, 

 

Speaker 2  3:22  

the shares that they hold in a company, because it is an unrealized gain, right? So they go like, yeah, you're worth 300 billion, but we can't tax you on those stocks because you haven't sold the shares, so you don't, like, have the money. And I understand the argument. They go like, No, you don't have it. It's just what it's worth, because it will also crash, and then you have nothing, so we can't tax you on it. Then I'm like, Okay, I understand that. Then Elon Musk offers to buy Twitter, all right? He offers to buy it. And then he says in his offer, he goes, I'm putting up my Tesla stock as collateral. Then I'm like, so you do have it? Then he's like, no, no, no, no, I don't have it. I don't have it. I'm just gonna say so then they accept the offer. He now buys Twitter. Now that they've accepted his offer, he now goes to private equity and banks and like other rich people and whatever. He goes like, can you guys borrow me the money to buy Twitter? And then he's like, I'm I want to buy Twitter because I don't want to sell any of my Tesla shares, so I want to use your money to buy Twitter. And then it's like, but then they're like, What are we loaning it against? And he's like, Well, my Tesla shares. Then I'm going, like, Wait, so, so you, you can, you can buy a thing based on what you have, yes, but when we want to tax you, you can say, I don't have it. Do you hear what I'm saying here?

 

Keith Weinhold  4:46  

Yeah, you can borrow against your real estate if you have substantial equity in it. We'll talk about just how much now billionaires borrow against their stock holdings using financial products like portfolio lines of credit or. For securities based loans. These are the names for how they do it, essentially taking out loans and using their stock as collateral. And this allows them to access cash without selling their assets and without incurring capital gains taxes, much like you can so you can say that you don't want to sell your property in you don't have to go through some capital raising round either, like a billionaire might have to when they're borrowing against their stock. You can just have a more standard mortgage application for your cash out refinance, and you don't even have to have a huge portfolio. I mean, even if you just own one 500k property with 50% equity in it, you can do this so it's available to most any credit worthy person, again, tax free. But of course, this doesn't mean that you always should take this windfall, because it often creates a higher monthly payment. You've got to be the one that makes that decision in controlling your cash flows, that is key. I'll talk about that some more with today's terrific guests. Also the Trump administration's desire to privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac we're going to talk about that and what that would do to the mortgage landscape. I am in the USA today, next week, I'll be bringing you the show from London, England for the first time, the following week, from Edinburgh, Scotland. Yes, the mobile GRE Studio will be in effect. I typically set it up myself, and I usually don't need the help of the hotel staff for an appropriate Sound Studio either. And then shortly after that, I will be in Anchorage, Alaska, where I'm competing in these fantastic mountain running races. And then by next month, that's where I hope to meet up with you in person for nine days of learning and fun, as I'll be in Miami as part of the faculty for the terrific real estate guys invest or summon at sea, where we're all going to disembark from Miami and go to St Thomas, St Martin and the Bahamas, and then after that great event, it is a long flight from Miami back to Anchorage again. And that's got to be one of the longer domestic flights, not just in the nation, but in the world, Miami to Anchorage, and then shortly after that, I will be in the Great Northeast early this summer, New York and Pennsylvania, including for my high school reunion. So I'll really be putting the miles on these next couple months. One interesting thing that I've noticed for next week's show, where I'll be joining you from London, is how much I'm paying per night at both my hotel in England and then later my hotel in Scotland. That's obviously a short term real estate transaction. These are some of the more expensive places in the world, really. So next week and then the week after, I just think you'll find it interesting. I'll tell you how much I'm spending per night in both London and then Edinburgh. And they're both prime locations, where the hotels are the center of London and then right on Edinburgh's Royal Mile. That is in future weeks as for today, let's talk about the mortgage landscape with this week's familiar and terrific guest.

 

I'd like to welcome in one of the more recurrent guests in our history, so she needs little introduction. She's the longtime president of the mortgage company that's created more financial freedom for real estate investors than any lender in the nation because they specialize in income property loans. It's where I get my own loans for my own rental properties. Ridge lending group. Hey, welcome back to GRE Caeli ridge. 

 

Caeli Ridge  8:57  

Thank you, Keith. You know I love being here with you and your listeners. I appreciate you having me.

 

Keith Weinhold  9:01  

You've helped us for so long. For example, who can forget way back in episode 56 Yeah, that's a deep scroll back when Chaley broke down each line of a good faith estimate for us, that's basically a closing statement sheet. She told us exactly what we pay for at the closing table, line by line like origination fee, recording costs and title insurance so helpful. It's just the sort of transparency that you get over there. Buyers pay for title insurance at the closing table. It is title insurance a rip off. A few years ago, a lot of people speculated that title insurance would fade away because the property's ownership could be transparent and accessible to everybody on the blockchain, but we don't really see that happening. So tell us about title insurance, and really, are we getting value in what we pay for there at the closing table?

 

Caeli Ridge  9:54  

Well, I think the first thing I would say is that it really isn't going to be an option as far as I. Know, as long as the individual is going to source institutional funding leverage use of other people's money, they're going to require the lender, aka Ridge lending, or whoever you're working with, they're going to require that title insurance that ensures their first lien position. Doing that title search, first and foremost, is going to make it clear that there isn't some cloud on title, that there isn't some mechanic lien that had been sitting out there for however many years it may have just been around. And those types of things never go away. So for a lending perspective, it's going to be real important that that title insurance is paid for and in place to protect their interests, things like judgments, tax liens, like I said, a mechanic's lien, those will automatically take a first lien position in front of a mortgage. So obviously we're not going to risk that and find ourselves in second lien position in the event of default and somebody else is getting paid before we are. So not really an option. Is it a rip off? I don't know enough about how often it's paid out, and not to speak to that, but I will tell you that it isn't a choice.

 

Keith Weinhold  11:07  

Title Insurance, like Shaylee was talking about. It protects against fraud related to the property's ownership, someone else claiming rights to the property, and this title search that an insurer does it also, yeah, it looks for those liens and encumbrances, including unpaid taxes, maybe unpaid HOA dues, but yeah, mortgage lenders typically require title insurance, and if you the borrower, you might think that's annoying. Well, it does make sense, because the bank needs to protect their collateral. If a bank ever has to foreclose, they need to have access to you, the borrower, to be able to do that without any liens or ownership claims from somebody else. Caeli, how often do title insurance companies mess up or have to pay out a claim? Does that ever happen?

 

Caeli Ridge  11:50  

I mean, if I have been involved in a circumstances where that was the case, it's been so many years ago, they're pretty fastidious. I don't know that I could recall a circumstance where something had happened and the title insurance was liable. They go through the paces, man, they've got to make sure that, and they're doing deep dives and searches across nationwide to make sure that there isn't any unnecessary issue that's been placed on title Not that I'm aware of. No. 

 

Keith Weinhold  11:50  

Are there any of those other items that we tend to see on a good faith estimate that have had any interesting trends or changes to them in the past few years? 

 

Caeli Ridge  12:27  

Yeah, I've got a good one, and this is actually timely credit reports. So over the last couple of years, something has been happening with credit reports where, you know, maybe three, four years ago, a credit report, let's say a joint credit report, a husband and wife went and applied that credit report might cost 25 bucks. Well, now it's in excess of 100 plus. Some of what we're going to be talking about today, it kind of gets into the wish list of Jim neighbors, who is the president of the mortgage brokers Association. He's been talking to the administration about some of his wishes, and credit report fees is actually one of the things that they're wanting to attack and bringing those costs down for the consumer. So when we look at a standard Closing Disclosure today, credit report costs have increased significantly. I don't have the percentages, but by a large margin over the last couple of years, 

 

Keith Weinhold  13:21  

typically not one of your bigger costs, but a little noteworthy. There one thing that people might opt and choose to have on their good faith estimates, so that borrower therefore would actually pay more out of pocket with today's higher mortgage rates. And I'm sure not to say high, because historically, they are not high. Do we see more people opting to pay discount points at the closing table to get a lower rate and talk to us about the trade offs there

 

Caeli Ridge  13:46  

right now, first and foremost, that there isn't a lot of option for investment property transactions, whether it be a purchase or refinance. There's not going to be that option where the consumer gets to choose to say, Okay, I want to pay points for a lower rate or not pay points for a higher rate the not paying points is the key here. There isn't going to be a zero point option for investment property transactions. And this gets a little bit convoluted, and then I'll circle back and answer the question of, when does it make sense to pay the points, more points versus less points? We have been in a higher rate environment that I think a lot of people have become accustomed to as a result secondary markets, where mortgage backed securities are bought and sold, they keep very close tabs on the trends and where they think things are headed. Well, something called YSP, that stands for yield, spread, premium, under normal market circumstances, a consumer can say, okay, Caeli, I don't want to pay any points. Okay, I'll take this higher interest rate, and I don't want to pay any points, because that higher interest rate is going to have YSP, yield, spread, premium to pay compensation to a lender, and you know, the other third parties that may be involved in that mortgage backed security. But. Sold and traded, etc, okay? They have that choice under normal market circumstances. Not the case right now, because when this loan sells the servicing rights, whoever is going to pick up the servicing rights, so when Mr. Jones goes to make his mortgage payment, he's going to cut a check to Mr. Cooper. That's a big one, right? Or Rocket Mortgage, or Wells Fargo, whoever the servicer is, the servicing rights are purchased at a cost. They have to pay for the servicing rights, and let's say that's 1% of this bundle of mortgage backed securities that they're purchasing. Well, they know the math is, is that that servicer is going to take about 36 months before that upfront cost is now in the black or profitable. This all will land together. Everybody, I promise you stick with me, so knowing that we've got about a 36 month window before a servicer that picked up the rights to service this mortgage is going to be profitable in a higher rate environment, as interest rates start coming down, what happens to the mortgage that they paid for the rights to service 12 months ago, 18 months ago, that thing is probably going to refinance right prior to the 36 month anniversary of profitability. So that YSP seesaw there is not going to be available for especially a non owner occupied transaction. So said another way, zero point rates are not going to be valid on a non owner occupied transaction in a higher rate environment when secondary markets understand that the loans that are secured today will very likely be refinanced prior to profitability on the servicing side of that mortgage backed security that is a risk to the lender, yes. So we know that right now you're not going to find a zero point option. Now that may be kind of a blanket statement. If you were getting a 30% loan to value owner occupied mortgage with 800 credit scores, you know that's going to be a different animal. And of course, you're going to have the option to not pay points. The risk for that is nothing. Okay, y SP is going to be available for you, the consumer, to be able to choose points at a lower rate, no points higher rate. When does it make sense to pay additional points? Let's say to reduce an interest rate, the break even math. And you know, I'm always talking about the math, the break even math is actually the formula is very simple. All you need to do is figure out the cost of the points. Dollar amount of the points, let's say it's $1,000 and that's what it's going to cost you to, say, get an eighth or a quarter or whatever the denomination is, in the interest rate reduction. But you aren't worried about the interest rate necessarily. You're looking at the monthly payment difference. So it's going to cost you $1,000 in extra points, but it's only going to save you $30 a month in payment when you divide those two numbers, what's that going to take you 33 months? 30 well, okay, and does that make sense? Am I going to refinance in 33 months? If the answer is no, then sure pay the extra 1000 bucks. But that's the math, the cost versus the monthly payment difference divide that that gives you the number of months it takes to recapture cost versus cash flow or savings, and then you be the determining factor on when that makes sense. 

 

Keith Weinhold  18:10  

It's pretty simple math. Of course, you can also factor in some inflation over time, and if you would invest that $1,000 in a different vehicle, what pace would that grow at as well? So we've been talking about the pros and cons of buying down your mortgage rate with discount points before we get into the administration changes. Cheley talk about that math in is it worth it to refinance or not? It's a difficult decision for some people to refinance today with higher mortgage rates than we had just a few years ago, and at the same time, we've got a lot of dead equity that's locked up.

 

Caeli Ridge  18:40  

I would start first by saying, Are we looking to harvest equity? Are we pulling cash out, or are we simply doing a rate and term refinance where we're replacing one loan with another loan, if it's for rate and term, if we're simply replacing the loan that we have today with a new loan, that math is going to be pretty simple. Why would you replace 6% interest rate with a 7% interest rate? If all other things were equal, you wouldn't unless there was a balloon feature, or maybe an adjustable rate mortgage or something of that nature involved there that you have to make the refinance. So taking that aside, focusing on a cash out refinance, and when does it make sense? So there's a little extra layered math here. The cash that you're harvesting, the equity that you're harvesting, first of all, borrowed funds are non taxable. What are we going to do with that pile of cash? Are we going to redeploy it for investing more often than not talking to investors? The answer is yes. What is that return going to look like? So you've got to factor that in as well, and then we'll get to the tax benefit in a moment. But generally speaking, I like to as long as the cash flow is still there, okay, you've got to have someone else covering that payment. Normally, there's exceptions to every rule. I don't normally advise going negative on a cash out refi. There are exceptions. Okay, please hear me. But otherwise, as long as the existing rents are covering and that thing is still being paid for by somebody else, then what you want to do is look at that monthly payment. Difference again, versus what you're getting out of it. And then you divide those two numbers pretty simply, and it'll take you how long. And then you've got a layer in the cash flow that you're going to get from the new acquisitions, and whether that be real estate or some other type of investment, whatever the return is, you're going to be using that to offset. And then finally, I would say, make sure that you're doing adding in the tax benefit. These are rental properties guys, right? So closing costs can be deducted now that may end up hurting debt to income ratio down the road. So don't forget, Ridge lending is going to be looking at your draft tax returns. Very, very important to ensure that we're setting you up for success and optimizing things like debt to income ratio on an annual basis.

 

Keith Weinhold  20:40  

Now, some investors, or even primary residence owners might look at their first and only mortgage on a property, see that it's 4% and really not want to touch that. What is the environment and the appetite like today for having a refinance in the form of a second mortgage? That way you can keep your first mortgage in place and, say, 4% get a second mortgage at 7% or more. How does that look for both owner occupied and non owner occupied properties today?

 

Caeli Ridge  21:07  

you're going to be looking at prime, plus, in many cases, if you don't want to mess with a first lien, a second lien mortgage is typically going to be tied to an index called prime. Those of you that are familiar with this have probably heard of that. Indicee. There's lots of them. The fed fund rate, by the way, is an index. There's lots of them. The Treasury is also another index. Prime is sitting, I think, at seven and a half percent. So you're probably going to be looking at rate wise, depending on occupancy and credit score and all of those llpas that we always talk about, loan level, price adjustment. You know, it could be prime plus zero, it could be prime plus four. So interest rates could range between, say, seven and a half, on average, up to 11 even 12% depending on those other variables. More often than not, those are going to be interest only. So make sure that you're doing that simple math there. And I would prefer if I'm giving advice the second liens, the he loan, which is closed ended, very much like your first mortgage, it's just in second lien position. It's amortized over a certain period of time, closed ended. Not as big a fan of that. If you can find the second liens, especially for non owner occupied, I would encourage it to be that open ended HELOC type. 

 

Keith Weinhold  22:15  

What are we looking at for combined loan to value ratios with second mortgages 

 

Caeli Ridge  22:19  

on an owner occupied I think you'd be happy to get 90. I think I've heard that in some cases, they can go up to 95% in my opinion, that would go as high as they'll let you go right on a non owner occupied, I think you'd be real lucky to find 80, and probably closer to 70. 

 

Keith Weinhold  22:34  

That really helps a lot with our planning. Well, the administration that came in this year has made some changes that can create some upheaval, some things to pay attention to in the mortgage market. We're going to talk about that when we come back. You're listening to get rich education. Our guest is Ridge lending Group President, Caeli Ridge I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. 

 

The same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group  NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequel and even chat with President Chaeli Ridge personally while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lendinggroup.com. That's Ridge lendinggroup.com. 

 

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Hal Elrod  24:38  

this is Hal Elrod, author of The Miracle Morning and listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't put your Daydream.

 

Keith Weinhold  24:55  

Welcome back to get rich education. We're talking about mortgages again, because this is one. Where leverage comes from. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, we're sitting down with the president of ridge lending group, Caeli Ridge, and I know that she has some knowledge and some updates on new administration leadership and some potential changes for the market there. What can you tell us? Caeli

 

Caeli Ridge  25:16  

I'm pretty excited about this one, and I'm watching very diligently to see how it unfolds. So the new director of the FHFA Federal Housing Finance Agency, all is Bill Pulte. This is the grandson of Pulte Homes. Okay, smart guy. I'm excited to see what he's going to come in and do. Well. He had recently, I think in the last couple of weeks, he put out in the news wires asking for feedback from the powers that be, related to Fannie and Freddie, what improvements they would like to see. So first up was Jim neighbors. He is the president of the mortgage brokers Association. He had a few very specific wish list items, if you will. And the first one on his list was the elimination of LLP, as for non owner occupied and second home. So let me just kind of paint a picture here, because there's some backstory I think is important. So an LLPA, for those of you that have never heard that term before, stands for a loan level price adjustment. And a loan level price adjustment is a positive number or a negative number that associates with the individual loan characteristics. So things like loan to value or loan size, occupancy is a big ll PA, the difference between an owner occupied where you live and one that you're going to use as a rental property, that's a big one. Credit score, property type, is it a single family? Is it a two to four? Is this a purchase? Is it a refi? Anyway, all of those different characteristics are ll pas. Well, if we take a step back in time, gosh, about three years ago now, Mark Calabria, at the time, was the director of the FHFA, and he had imposed increases, specific increases. This was middle of 22 I want to say specific increases to the LL pas for non owner occupied property. So if anybody kind of remembers that time, we started to really see points and interest rates take that jump sometime in 2022 more than just the traditional interest rate market and the fluctuations. This was very material to investment property and second home, but we'll focus on the investment property. So Mr. Jim neighbors came in and said, first and foremost, I'd like to see those removed, and I want to read something to the listeners here, because I thought it was very interesting. This is something I've been kind of preaching from the the rooftops, if you will, for many, many years. Yeah, we've got neighbors sticking up for investors here. He really is. And I Yeah, well, yes, he is. And more often than not, they're focused on the owner occupied so I'm just going to kind of read. I've got my cheat sheet here. I want to make sure I get it all right for everybody. So removal of the loan level price adjustments on investment properties and second homes, he noted that these risk based fees charged by Fannie and Freddie discourage responsible buyers from purchasing second homes and investment properties, with that insignificant increase to cost. And here's the important part, originally introduced to account for additional credit risk, many of the pandemic era llpa increases were not based on updated risk metric. In fact, data has shown that loans secured by investment properties often have strong credit profiles and lower than expected default rates. I mean, anybody that has been around long enough to see what we've come from, like, 08,09, and when we had the calamity of right, the barrier for entry for us to get any conventional financing as investors has been harsh. I mean, I make that stupid joke of vials of blend DNA samples. But aside from it being an icebreaker, it kind of feels true. We really get the short end of the stick. And I feel like as investors especially, post 08,09, our credit profiles, our qualifications, the bar is so high for us, the default risk there has largely been removed. We've got so much skin in the game. With 20 25% down, credit score is much higher, debt to income ratios more scrutinized, etc, etc. So I think that this is, if it passes muster. I think this is going to be a real big win for the non owner occupied side of agency, Fannie, Mae, Freddie, Mac lending.

 

Keith Weinhold  29:13  

 The conventional wisdom is, is that if you the borrower, get into financial trouble, you're more likely to walk away from your rental properties than you are your own home and neighbors, sort of like a good neighbor here sticking up for us and stating that, hey, us, the investors, we're actually highly credit worthy people.

 

Caeli Ridge  29:29  

Yeah, absolutely. So fingers crossed. Everybody say your prayers to the llpa and mortgage investor rates gods.

 

Keith Weinhold  29:37  

we'll be attentive to that. What other sorts of changes do we have with the administration? For example, I know that Trump and some others in the administration have talked about privatizing the GSEs, those government sponsored enterprises, Fannie, Mae, Freddie Mac and what kind of disruption that would create for the industry. Is it really any credence to that?

 

Caeli Ridge  29:58  

They've been talking about it for. For quite a while. I mean, as long as Trump has been kind of on the scene, that's been maybe a wish list for him. I don't see that happening over the next years. That is an absolute behemoth to unpack and make a reality. Speaking of Mark Calabria, he was really hot and heavy on the trails of doing that. So what this is, you guys so fatty Freddy, are in conservatorship that happened back post 08,09, and privatizing them and making them where it is not funded, or conservatorship within the United States government. Now it still has those guarantees against default. It's a very complicated, complex, nuanced dynamic of mortgage backed securities, but if we were to privatize them at some point now, am I saying that that's a bad thing? No, not necessarily, but I think it has to be very carefully executed, and because there are so many moving parts, I do not think that just one term of presidency is going to make that happen. If we do it, it's going to be years down the road from now. Is my crystal ball. I don't think we're going to see that anytime soon. 

 

Keith Weinhold  30:58  

That's interesting to know. Are there any other industry changes that are important, especially for investors, whether that has to do with the change in administration or anything else?

 

Caeli Ridge  31:08  

 Well, specific to that wish list from Mr. Neighbors, one of the other things that he had asked, and there were quite a few, for owner occupied changes as well, he wants to reduce the seasoning for cash out refinances of investment properties, which would be huge good. Yeah, right now it's 12 months on a cash out refinance given very specific acquisition details. Okay, I won't go down that rabbit hole, but currently, if you haven't met exactly these certain benchmarks, you may have to wait 12 months to pull cash out of a property from the day that you acquire it, he's asking that that be pulled back to about six months, which would be nice

 

Keith Weinhold  31:46  

reducing the seasoning period from 12 months to six months, meaning that an investor a borrower, would only need to own that property for that shorter duration of time prior to performing a refinance.

 

Caeli Ridge  31:58  

 Cash out refinance, no seasoning required on a rate and term. This is specific for cash out. But again, for cash out, but exactly right

 

Keith Weinhold  32:04  

now, one trend that I think about sometimes, especially when I think back to 2008 2009 days since I was an investor through that time, is, are there any signs in the reduction of the appetite or the propensity to lend, to make loans. So how freely is credit flowing? 

 

Caeli Ridge  32:25  

I think pretty freely. I'm not seeing that they're tightening the purse strings. That's not the lens that I'm looking at it from, and I try to keep that brush stroke broad. There have been, I think that on the post, close side, there's been a little extra from Fannie Freddie, and I think that has to do with profitability markers. But overall, I'm not seeing that products are disappearing necessarily, or that guidelines are really becoming even more cumbersome. If anything, I would say it's maybe the reverse of that, and I do believe that probably is part and parcel to this administration and the real estate background that comes with it.

 

Keith Weinhold  32:59  

One other thing I pay attention to, but it just really hasn't been much of a story lately. Are delinquencies in foreclosures. It seems like they've ticked up a little bit, but they're still both really historically low and basically a delinquency being defined as when a borrower makes one late payment, and foreclosures being the more severe thing, typically a 120 days late or more. Any trends there? I'm not

 

Caeli Ridge  33:24  

seeing any now. And in fact, I would tell you that, because we focus so much on investor needs, first payment default is I can count on less than one hand, if I had to, how many times I've seen that happen with our clients over 25 years. So nothing noteworthy there for me. 

 

Keith Weinhold  33:40  

Yes. I mean, today's borrowers are just flush with equity. Nationally, there's a loan to value ratio of 47% which is healthy, in a sense. On average, borrowers have a 53% equity position. Of course, the next thing, I think, is like, I don't really know if that's a smart strategy. They're not really getting that much leverage out there. But I think a lot of people just have the old mentality of get it paid off. 

 

Caeli Ridge  34:06  

And I think that depending on where you are in your journey, I mean, if you're in phase three, right, where you're just really looking at these investments, these nest eggs to carry you into your retirement and or for legacy reasons, fine, but otherwise, I may argue the point in that I don't care that you have a 3% interest rate on an investment property, or whatever it may be, if it's sitting there idle and as long as it can cash flow, the true chances of those individuals of keeping that mortgage that they got in 2020, 2021, etc, at those ridiculously low interest rates and stroking 360 payments later to pay it to zero is a fraction of a percent right now, whether they're on the sidelines for something else, I don't know, but that debt, equity, I think, is hurting them more than a 3% interest rate is helping them.

 

Keith Weinhold  34:52  

 And a lot of times, the mindset of someone is, if they don't need to build wealth anymore, and they're older and they already built wealth, they don't care if they're loaned to value. Was down to zero, and they have it paid off, whereas someone that's in the wealth building phase probably wants to get more leverage. Yeah, Chaley at risk lending group, there you see so many applications come in, and especially since you're an investor centric lender, I like to ask you what trends you're seeing. What are people buying? What are people doing? Are they refinancing? Are they paying loans off? Are they trying to take out more credit? Are there any overall trends with investors that you see in there 

 

Caeli Ridge  35:29  

right now? I think the all in one is a clear winner there. The all in one, that first lien, HELOC, that you and I talked about, we broke my little corner of the internet with that one, that one is a front runner for sure, on the refinance side, specifically, we are seeing quite a bit more on the refi side of things, that equity is kind of just sitting there. So even though, if the on one isn't a good fit for them, I'm seeing investors that are willing to tap into that equity instead of just sitting around and waiting for them to potentially lose some equity if the housing market does start to take some decline. And then I would say, on the purchase transaction side, something that's kind of piqued my interest is the pad split. I'm looking at that more often where, for those that are not familiar, you can probably speak more to this, Keith, they're buying single family resident properties, even two to four unit properties, and a per bedroom basis, turning those into rental properties. And they're looking to be quite profitable. So I've got my eyes on that too.

 

Keith Weinhold  36:23  

before we ask how we can learn more about you and what you do in there at Ridge Kayle. Is there any last thing that you'd like to share? Maybe a question I did not think about asking you, but should have. 

 

Caeli Ridge  36:35  

I would like to share with your listeners that if they are not working with a lender that focuses on their education and has that diversity of loan product that we have, that they're probably in the wrong support group. You need to be working with a lender that has a nationwide footprint and that has diversity of loan product to cover whatever methodology of real estate investing that you're looking for, and really puts a fine touch on the education of your qualifications and your goals as they relate to underwriters guidelines

 

Keith Weinhold  37:10  

what we're talking about, and I know this through my own experience in dealing with Ridge, since I use them for my own loans myself, is sometimes Ridge might inform You that, hey, you can go and do this and make this deal now, but that's going to mess up this bigger thing 12 months down the road, whereas if you talk with an everyday sort of owner occupant mortgage company, oh, they're just not going to talk like that, because owner occupants, they might only buy every seven years, or something like that. And investors are different, and you need to have that foresight and look ahead. Caeli, this has been great, a really informative conversation about the pulse of the market. Tell us what products that you offer in there.

 

Caeli Ridge  37:50  

Our menu is very, very diverse. I would say what. It's probably easier to describe what we don't offer. We do not have bear lot loans or land loans. We're not offering those right now. We do not have second lien HELOCs currently. We suspended that two years ago. But otherwise, guys, we're going to have everything that you're going to need. So just very quickly, I'll rattle off Fannie Freddie, okay, those golden tickets that we talk about, we've got DSCR loans, bank statement loans, asset depletion loans, ground up construction, short term bridge loans for fix and flip or fix and hold. We have our All In One that's my favorite first lien. HELOC, we have commercial loan products for commercial property and residential on a cross collateralization basis. So very, very robust in the loan product space.

 

Keith Weinhold  38:33  

Caeli Ridge, it's been valuable as always. And then Ridge lending group.com, or your phone number

 

Caeli Ridge  38:39  

855-747-4343, 855-74-RIDGE, , and then to reach us an email, if that's your better mechanism to contact us [email protected]

 

Keith Weinhold  38:50  

that's been valuable as always. Thanks so much for coming back onto the show. 

 

Caeli Ridge  38:53  

Appreciate it. Keith,

 

Keith Weinhold  39:00  

Yeah, terrific information from Chaley. As always, if you're enamored of borrowing tax free, like a billionaire, against your real estate, they sure can help you out with that and determine whether that's right. It doesn't mean that you always should, but if you have investment ideas for debt equity, and you're attentive to cash flows, run the numbers with them and see if it's worthwhile. As far as new purchases, we all know that soured affordability has made it especially tough for first time homebuyers, and there's more data out there that shows that tenant durations are historically long, longer than they usually are. Tenants are staying in places longer because they have to. Investor purchases have stayed strong, though investors have been buying about the same proportion of single family homes and making them rentals that they have historically and Redfin tells us that. The value of properties that investors have purchased is up more than 6% year over year, so investors are still buying and that makes sense. We're in this era where there's more uncertainty than usual, there's higher stock volatility than usual, and more people are sort of asking themselves, where would I get a better return than on income property, and where would my return be more stable today than in income property as well? If you work with Ridge lending group for a time, you're probably going to understand why I personally use them for my own loans. You'll notice that they really understand what investors need. Thanks to Caeli Ridge today and thank you for being here too. But as always, you weren't here for me. You were here for you until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

 

Speaker 3  40:56  

Nothing on this show should be considered specific personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.

 

Keith Weinhold  41:20  

You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. It's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters. And I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text. GRE to 66866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text GRE to 66866

 

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The Father of Reaganomics, David Stockman, joins us to explore the complex world of international trade and its impact on investors. 

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Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai 

 

Keith Weinhold  0:01  

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, I sit down with a long time White House occupant who was the official economic advisor to an ex president. We get the real deal on tariffs and what they mean to you. Trump gets called out and the ominous sign about what's coming six months from now, today on, Get Rich Education.

 

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being the flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com

 

Corey Coates  1:14  

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

 

Keith Weinhold  1:30  

Welcome to GRE from Brookline, Massachusetts to Brooklyn, New York and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are listening to get rich education, just another shaved mammal behind this microphone here. I recently spent some time with the father of Reaganomics, David Stockman, in New York City, and sometimes an issue so critical surfaces that real estate investors need to step back and understand a broader force in the economy. Three weeks ago, here, I told you how the second and third way, real estate pays you. Cash flow and ROA are sourced by your tenants employment and the future of your tenants employment is influenced by tariffs and other policies of this presidential administration. This is going to affect rates of inflation and a whole lot of things. Now, an organization called the American Dialect Society, they actually name their word of the year, and this year, it is shaping up to be that word, tariff. In fact, Trump has described that word as the most beautiful word in the dictionary. And I think we all know by now that a tariff is an import tax that gets passed along to consumers when it comes to materials used in real estate construction that's going to affect future real estate prices. Well, several key ones so far were exempted from recent reciprocal tariffs, including steel, aluminum, lumber and copper exempted. Not everything was exempted, but those items and some others were but who knows if even they are going to stay that way. And now, when it comes to this topic. I think a lot of people want to make immediate overreactions in even posture like they're an expert in become an armchair economist, and I guess we all do a little of that, me included. But rather than being first on this and overreacting, let's let the policy which Trump called Liberation Day last month when he announced all these new tariffs. Let's let policy simmer a little and then bring in an expert that really knows what this means to the economy and real estate. So that's why I wanted to set up this discussion for your benefit with the father of Reaganomics and I today. In fact, what did Reagan himself say about tarrifs back in 1987 this is part of a clip that's gained new life this year. It's about a minute and a half. 

 

Speaker 1  4:13  

Throughout the world, there's a growing realization that the way to prosperity for all nations is rejecting protectionist legislation and promoting fair and free competition. Now there are sound historical reasons for this. For those of us who lived through the Great Depression, the memory of the suffering it caused is deep and searing, and today, many economic analysts and historians argue that high tariff legislation passed back in that period called the Smoot Hawley tariff greatly deepened the depression and prevented economic recovery. You see at first when someone says, Let's impose tariffs on foreign imports, it looks like they're doing the patriotic thing by protecting American products and jobs, and sometimes for a short while at work. Price, but only for a short time. What eventually occurs is first, home grown industries start relying on government protection in the form of high tariffs. They stop competing and stop making the innovative management and technological changes they need to succeed in world markets. And then, while all this is going on, something even worse occurs. High tariffs inevitably lead to retaliation by foreign countries and the triggering of fierce trade wars. The result is more and more tariffs, higher and higher trade barriers, and less and less competition, so soon, because of the prices made artificially high by tariffs that subsidize inefficiency and poor management, people stop buying. Then the worst happens, markets shrink and collapse, businesses and industry shut down, and millions of people lose their jobs. 

 

Keith Weinhold  5:50  

Now, from what I can tell you as a listener in the GRE audience, maybe you're split on what you think about tariffs. In fact, we ran an Instagram poll. It asks, generally speaking, tariffs are good or bad? Simply that 40% of you said good, 60% bad. Over on LinkedIn, it was different. 52% said they're good, 48% bad. So it's nearly half and half. And rather than me taking a side here, I like to bring up points that support both sides, and then let our distinguished guests talk, since he's the expert. For example, if a foreign nation wants to access the world's largest economy, the United States, does it make sense for them to pay a fee? I mean, it works that way in a lot of places, when you want to list a product on eBay or Amazon, you pay them a fee. You pay a percentage of the list price in order to get access to a ready marketplace of qualified buyers. All right. Well, that's one side, but then the other side is, come on, let's look at history. Where have tariffs ever worked like Where have they ever been a resounding, long term success? Do they have any history of a sustained, good track record? I generally like free trade. Then let's understand there's something even worse than a steep tariff. There are quotas which are imposed, import limits, trade limits, and then there are even all out import bans. What do terrorists mean to the economy that you are going to live in and that your tenants live in? It's the father of Reaganomics, and I on that straight ahead on Get Rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold.

 

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Hey

 

Robert Helms  9:28  

Hey everybody. It's Robert Helms of the real estate guys radio program. So glad you found Keith Weinhold in get rich education. Don't quit your Daydream.

 

Keith Weinhold  9:48  

when it comes to White House economic policy like tariffs, taxes and inflation, don't you wish you could talk to someone that's often been inside the White House. Today, we are even better. He was the official advisor to an ex president on economic affairs, a Wall Street and Washington insider and Harvard grad. Today's guest is also a former two time congressman from Michigan. He's a prolific author, and he is none other than the man known as the father of Reaganomics. He was indeed President Ronald Reagan's budget advisor. He was first with us last year, but so much has happened since. So welcome back to the show. David Stockman, 

 

David Stockman  10:26  

very good to be with you, and you're certainly right about that. I think we're really in uncharted waters. Who could have predicted where we are today, and therefore it's very hard to know where we're heading, but you have to try to peer through the fog and all the uncertainty and the noise and the, you know, day to day ups and downs that's coming from this White House in a way that we've never seen before. And I started on Capitol Hill in 1970 so I've been watching this, you know, for more than a half century, actually, quite a while. And man, it's important to go through all this, but it's sort of uncharted waters. 

 

Keith Weinhold  11:04  

Sure, it's sort of like you wake up every day and all you do know is that you don't know. And David, when it comes to tariffs, I want to give you my idea, and then I want to ask you about what the tariff objective even is. Now, to be sure, no one is asking me how to advise the President. I'm an international real estate investor, but I do most of my business in the US, and I sure don't have international trade policy experience. It seems better to me, David, that rather than shocking the world with new tariffs that kick in right away, it would have been better to announce that tariffs begin in, say, 90 days, and then give nations space to negotiate before they kick in. That's my prevailing idea. My question to you is, what's the real objective here? What are terrorists proposed to do? Raise revenue, onshore companies merely a negotiation tactic? Is the objective? Something else? 

 

David Stockman  12:00  

Well, it might be all of the above, but I think it's important to start with a predicate, and that is that the problem is not high tariffs abroad or cheating by foreign competitors or exporters. There is a huge problem of a chronic trade deficit that is not benign, that does reflect a tremendous offshoring of our industrial economy, the loss of good, high paying industrial and manufacturing jobs. So the issue is an important one to address, but I have to say, very clearly, Trump is 100% wrong when he attempts to address it with tariffs, because foreign tariffs aren't the problem. Let me just give a couple of pieces of data on this, and I've been doing a lot of research on this. If you take the top 51 exporters to the United States, our top 51 trade partners, and this is Mexico and Canada and the entire EU and it's all the big far eastern China, Japan, South Korea, India, you know, all the rest of them. If you look at the and that's 90% of our trade, we have 2.9 trillion of imports coming in from all of those countries, and the tariff that we Levy, this is the United States, on those imports, is not high. It's higher than it was in the past, mainly because of what Trump did in the first term, but it's 3.9% now compared to bad times historically, decades and decades ago. That's relatively low. But here's the key point, if we look at the same 51 trading partners in terms of the tariffs they levy on our exports to China and to the EU and to Canada and Mexico and South Korea and all the rest of them. The tariff average, weighted average that they levy is 2.1% so let me restate that the average US tariff is about twice as high 4% around things as what our partners imposed 2% now the larger point is whether it's 4% or 2% doesn't make a better difference. That's not a problem when it comes to 33 trillion of world trade of which we are, you know, the United States engages in about five and a half trillion of that on a two way basis, import, export, in the nexus of a massive global trading system. So he's off base. He's wrong. The target is not high tariffs or unfair foreign trade. Now there are some people who say, Well, you're looking at monetary tariffs. So in other words, the import duty they levy on, you know, exports to South Korea or India or someplace like that, right? And that, the real issue, supposedly, is non tariff barriers. For instance, you know, some governments require you that all procurement by government agencies has to be sourced from a domestic supplier, which automatically shuts out us suppliers who might want that business. Well, the problem is we're the biggest violator of the non tariff barrier in that area. In other words, we have something like $900 billion worth of state, federal and local procurement that's under Buy America policies, which means EU, Mexico, Canada, China, none of them can compete. Now I mention that only as one example, because it's the kind of classic non tariff barrier, as opposed to import duty that some people point to, or they point to the fact that while foreign countries allegedly manipulate their currency, but you know the answer to that is that number one, overwhelming, no doubt about it, largest currency manipulator in the world, is the Federal Reserve. Okay, so it's kind of hard to say that there's a unfair trade problem in the world because of currency manipulation. And then there is, you know, an argument. Well, foreign governments subsidize their exporters. They subsidize their industrial companies, and therefore they can sell things cheaper. And therefore that's another example of unfair trade, but the biggest subsidizer of tech industry, and of a lot of other basic industry in the United States is is the Defense Department. You know, we have a trillion dollar defense budget, and we put massive amounts of dollars in, not only to buying, you know, hardware and weapons and so forth, but huge amounts of R and D that go into developing cutting edge technologies that have a lot of civilian applications that, in fact, we see all over the world. That's why we're doing this broadcast right now. The point is that problem is not high tariffs because they're only low tariffs. The problem is not unfair trade, because there's all kinds of minor little interferences with pure free markets, but both, everybody violates those one way or another due to domestic politics. But it's not a big deal. It doesn't make that big a difference. So therefore, why do we have a trillion dollar trade deficit in the most recent year, and a trade deficit of that magnitude that's been pretty continuous since the 1970s the answer is three or four blocks from the White House, not 10,000 miles away in Beijing or Tokyo. The answer is the Federal Reserve has in the ELLs building there in DC, not far from the White House. Yes, yes, right there, okay, the Eccles building the Fed has a huge, persistent pro inflation bias, sure. And as a result of that, it is pushed the wage levels and the price levels and the cost levels of the US economy steadily higher, and therefore we've become less and less competitive with practically everybody, but certainly a lower wage countries nearby, like Mexico or China, far away. And you know, there's, it's not that simple of just labor costs and wages, because, after all, if you source from China, you've got to ship things 10,000 miles. You've got supply chain management issues, you've got quality control issues, you've got timeliness issues. You have inventory carry costs, because there's a huge pipeline, and of course, you have the actual freight cost of bringing all those containers over. But nevertheless, when you factor all that in, our trade problem is our costs are too high, and that is a function of the pro inflation policies of the Fed. Give one example. Go back just to the period when the economy was beginning to recover, right after the great recession. And you know the crisis of 208209 and I started 210 unit labor costs in manufacturing in the United States. Just from 210 that's only 15 years, are up 55% that's unit labor costs. In other words, if you take wage costs and you subtract productivity growth in that 15 year period, the net wage costs less productivity growth, which is what economists call unit labor costs, are up 53% and as a result of that, we started, you know, maybe with a $15 wage difference between the United States and.China back in the late 1990s that wage gap today is $30 in other words, the fully loaded way at cost of average wages in the United States. And I'm talking about not just the pay envelope, but also the payroll taxes, the you know, charge for pension expense, health care and so forth. The whole fully loaded cost to an employer is about $40 an hour, and it's about $10 in the United States and it's about $10 an hour in China. Now that's the reason why we have a huge trade deficit with China, because of the massive cost difference, and it's not because anybody's cheating. Is because the Fed, in its wisdom, decided, well, you know, everybody will be okay. We're going to inflate the economy at 2% a year. That's their target. It's not like, well, we're trying to get low inflation or zero inflation, but we're not quite making it. No, they're proactive. Answer is, we've got to have 2% or the economy is not going to work. Well, well, 2% sounds well, that's a trivial little number. However, when you do it year after year, decade after decade, for a long period of time, and the other side is not inflating at the same rate, then in dollar terms, you have a problem, and that's where we are today. So this is important to understand, because it means the heart of the whole Trump economic policy, which is trying to bring manufacturing home, trying to bring industry back to the United States, a laudable objective is based on a false diagnosis of why this happened, and it is unleashed ball in the china shop, disruption of global economic flows in relationships that are going to cause unmitigated problems, even disaster in the US economy. Because it's too subtle, when you think about it, the world trade system just goods. Now, we've not even talking about services yet, or capital flows or financing on a short term basis. The World Trade in goods, merchandise, goods only is now 33 trillion. That is a hell of a lot of activity of parts and pieces and raw materials and finished products flowing in. You know, impossible to imagine directions back and forth between dozens and dozens of major economies and hundreds overall. And when you start, you step into that, not with a tiny little increase in the tariff. To give somebody a message. You know, if our tariffs are averaging 4% that's what I gave you a little while ago. And you raise tariffs to 20% maybe that's a message. But Trump didn't do that. He raised the tariff on China to 145% in other words, let's just take one example of a practical product, almost all the small appliances that you can find in Target or even a higher end retail stores United States or on Amazon are sourced in China because of this cost differential. I've been talking about this huge wage differential. So over the last 20, 25, years, little it went there now 80% of all small appliances are now sourced in China, and one, you know, good example would be a microwave oven, and a standard one with not a lot of fancy bells and whistles, is $100 now, when you put 145% tariff on the $100 landed microwave oven is now $245 someone's going to say, Gee, are we going to be able to sell microwaves at $245 they're not certain. I'm talking about a US importer. I'm talking about someone who sells microwaves on Amazon, for instance, or the buyers at Walmart or Target, or the rest of them, they're going to say, wait a minute, maybe we ought to hold off our orders until we see how this is going to shake out. And Trump says he's going to be negotiating, which is another whole issue that we'll get into. It's a lot of baloney. He has no idea what he's doing. Let's just face the facts about this. So if orders are suddenly cut back, and the flow that goes on day in and day out across the Pacific into the big ports in Long Beach in Los Angeles is suddenly disrupted, not in a small way, but in a big way, by 20, 30, 40, 50% six or seven months down the road, we're going to have empty shelves. We're going to have empty warehouses. We're going to have sellers who suddenly realize there's such a scarcity of products that have been hit by this blunderbuss of tariffs that we can double our price and get away with it.

 

Keith Weinhold  25:00  

Okay, sure. I mean, ports are designed. Ports are set up for stadium flows, not for surges, and then walls and activity. That just really doesn't work.

 

David Stockman  25:08  

And let me just get in that, because you're on a good point. In other words, there is a complicated supply line, supply chain, where, you know, stuff is handed off, one hand to another, ports in China, shipping companies, ports here, rail distribution systems, regional warehouses of you know, people like Walmart and so forth, that whole supply chain is going to be hit with a shock. Everything is going to be uncertain in terms of the formulas that everybody uses right now, you know that you sell 100 units a week, so you got to replace them at the sales rate, and you put your orders in, and know that it takes six weeks to get here, and all this other stuff, all of the common knowledge that's in the supply chain that makes it work, and the handoffs smooth and efficient From one player in the supply chain to the next, it's all going to be disrupted. But the one thing we're going to have is we're going to have shortages, we're going to have empty shelves, and we're going to have price which I'm sure that Trump is not going to start saying price gouging of a you know, right? But that's not price gouging. If you have a you know, go to Florida. We have a hurricane. Where we live in Florida and New York, we have a hurricane. All of a sudden the shelves are empty and there's no goods around, because everybody's been stocking up getting ready for the storm. And then all of a sudden, the politicians are yelling that somebody's price gouging, because they raised their prices in a market that was in disequilibrium. Well, that's not price gouging. That's supply and demand trying to find a new balance basic economics. You know, when the demand is 100 and the supply is 35 okay, but I'm kind of getting ahead here, but I think there's very good likelihood that there's going to be a human cry right before, you know, maybe in the fall or right before Christmas, about price gouging and Trump then saying, Well, I was elected to bring prices down and bring inflation under control. It's out of control because all of these foreigners raised their prices. And no, they did, and it was the tariff that did it, and all the people in the supply chain are trying to take advantage of the temporary disruptions. So I think people have to understand, and I can't say this, and I don't like to say it, because I certainly didn't think the other candidate in the last election had anything to offer in terms of dealing with our serious economic problems in this country. I'm talking about Harris. But the fact is, Donald Trump has had a wrong idea for the last 40 to 50 years of his adult life. In that core idea is that trade deficits are a sign of the other side cheating. They're a sign that you're being exploited or taken advantage of or ripped off, or it's not at all okay. Trade deficits are a consequence of cost differences between different jurisdictions, and to the extent that we've artificially, unnecessarily inflated our costs. We need to fix the problem at the source. He ought to clean house at the Federal Reserve. But the problem is, Trump wants lower interest rates when, in fact, the low interest rates created all the inflation that led to our loss of competitiveness and the huge trade deficits we have today. So to summarize, it is important to understand, do not have faith in Trump's promise that we're going to have a golden age of economic prosperity. We are going to have a economic disaster, and it's a unforced error. It's self inflicted, and it's the result of the wrong fundamental idea of one guy who's in the oval office right now throwing his considerable weight around and pushing the economy into upheaval that really is totally unnecessary. He should have done what he was elected to do, and Matt's work on getting production up and costs down, that's not going to be solved with tariffs. David, I have another important point to bring up. But before we do just quickly, are those two to 4% tariffs you mentioned earlier. Those are the tariff levels pre Trump second term correct. 

 

We could clarify that those are for the year 2023 that was the latest full year data that we have with great deal of granularity. 

 

Keith Weinhold  29:56  

The point I want to bring up is there any history? That tariffs actually work. Some people cite the Smoot Hawley Tariff Act from the 1930s and that it drove us deeper into the Great Depression. And David, on the one hand, when we think about, do tariffs actually work? If Indonesia can make shoes for us for $11 why would we want to onshore an activity like that? That is a good deal for us. And then, on the other hand, you have someone like Nvidia, the world's leading semiconductor company, they announced plans to produce some of their AI supercomputers entirely on American soil for the first time recently. And you have some other companies that have made similar announcements. So that's a small shred of evidence that tariffs could work. But my question is, historically, do tariffs actually work? 

 

David Stockman  30:44  

That's a great question, and there's a huge history. And you can go back all the way the 19th century, where Donald Trump seems to be preoccupied, but what he fails to recognize is that they worked in the 19th century because they were revenue tariffs. It wasn't an effort to, like, bring jobs back to America. We were booming at the time. Jobs were coming to America, not leaving, and it was the federal government's main source of revenue. Because, as you know, prior to 1913 there was no income tax, right? So that was one thing. Okay, then when we got into the 20th century and host World War Two, it became obvious to people that the whole idea of comparative advantage, going all the way back to Adam Smith, and that enhanced a global trade where people could specialize in whatever their more competitive advantage is, was a Good thing. And so we had round after round of negotiations after World War Two that reduced tariff levels steadily, year by year, decade by decade. So by the time we got to the 1990s when China, then, you know, arose from the disaster of Mao and Mr. Dang took over and created all the export factories and said, It's glorious to be rich and all these things is we got red capitalism. But if we start in the 1990s the average tariff worldwide, now this is weighted average on all goods that are bought and sold or imported and exported, was about 9% and there were have been various free trade deals done since then. For instance, we had NAFTA, and the tariffs on Mexico and Canada and the United States went to zero. We had a free trade deal in 212 with South Korea. This never comes up, but the tariff on South Korean goods coming the US is zero. The tariff on us, exports going to South Korea is zero because we have a free trade agreement, and it's worked out pretty well with South Korea. Now we're not the only ones doing this. Countries all over the world. The EU is a total free trade zone in economy almost as big as the United States that used to have tariff levels between countries. Now it's one big free trade zone. So if you take the entire world economy, that 9% weighted average tariff of the early 90s, which was down from maybe 2025, 30, pre World War Two in this Smoot Hawley era, was down to 2.25% by the time that Donald Trump took office, the first time around in 2017 now 2.25% is really a rounding error. It's hardly when you have $33 trillion worth of goods moving around, you know, container ships and bulk carriers and so forth all around the world, and air freight and the rest of it, rail. 2% tariff is not any kind of big deal, as I say in some of the things I write, it's not a hill of beans. So somehow, though 45 years ago, Trump got the idea that tariffs were causing a problem and that we had trade deficits, not because our costs were going up owing to bad monetary policy, but because the other guy was cheating. Remember, this is Trump's whole view of the world. It's a zero sum game. I win, you lose, and if I'm not winning, is because you're cheating. Okay? In other words, I'm inherently going to win. America's inherently going to win unless the other guy is cheating. Now, Trump sees the world the same way that I think he looked at electrical and plumbing contractors in the Bronx, you know, in the 1980s and 1990s when he was developing his various Real Estate projects. These are pretty rough and tumble guys. It's a wild, easy way to make a living. So there's a lot of, you know, there's a lot of pretty rough baseball that's played that mentality that the other guy is always trying to screw me, the other guy's always cheating, the other guy's preventing me from winning, is, is his basic mentality. And it's not Applicable. It's not useful at all to try to understand the global economy. Try to understand why America's $29 trillion economy is not chugging along as strongly and as productively as it should be, why real wages are not making the gains that workers should be experiencing and so forth. So he ought to get out of this whole trade, tariff trade war thing, which he started, I don't know how he does, it's a little late, and focus on the problems on the home front. In other words, our trade problem has been caused by too much spending, too much borrowing, too much money printing on the banks of the Potomac. It's not basically caused in Beijing or Tokyo or Seoul or even Brussels, the European Union. And we need to get back to the basic and the real culprit, which is the Federal Reserve and its current chairman, Paul, if he wants to attack somebody, go after the Fed. Go after Paul. But ought to give them a mandate to bring inflation to zero and to stop fooling around with everything else and to stop monetizing the public debt that is buying government debt, take care of your own backyard first before you start taking, yeah, sure, yeah, exactly. You know, I've been in this for a long time. I start, as I said, I started on Capitol Hill. There have been a lot of protectionist politicians, but they always argued free trade is good, but it has to be fair trade. And you know, we have this example in our steel industry, for instance, where we producers abroad are competing unfairly for one reason or another. But the point I'm getting to is they always said this is an exceptional case. Normally we would go for free trade, but we got to have protection here. We got to have a temporary quota. Even when I was in the Reagan administration, we had a big argument about voluntary quotas on Japanese car exports, and I was totally against it. I thought the US industry needed to get its act together, get its costs down. Needed to get the UAW under control, because it had pushed wages, you know, way, way, way too high terms of total cost. But they argued, yeah, well, you're right, but we have to have 10 years in order to allow things to be improved and adjusted and catch up. So this is only temporary. This is just this. Yes, this is protectionism, but it's temporary. It's expedient that we can avoid and so therefore we'll make an exception. But there is no one, and most of these people were, you know, in the payroll of the unions, or they were congressmen from south to South Carolina going to bad for the textile industry, or congressman from Ohio going to bat for the steel industry, whatever, but there was no one who ever came along and said tariffs are big, beautiful things, and we need to have permanent high tariffs, because that's the way we're going to get prosperity back in United States. It's a dumb idea. It's wrong. It's disproven by history and people. Even though Trump has done a lot of things that I like you know, he's got rid of dei he's got rid of all of this green energy, climate crisis nonsense, all of that that he's done is to the good when you come to this basic question, how do we get prosperity in America? The answer is, through free market capitalism, by getting the government out of the way, by balancing the budget and by telling the Fed not to, you know, inflate the economy to the disadvantage that it has today. That's how you get there. And Trump is not a real Republican. Trump is basically what I call a status. He's for big government, right wing status. Okay, there's left wing, Marxist status, then there's right wing status. But you know, all of this tariff business is going to create so much corruption that it's almost impossible to imagine, because every day there's someone down there, right now, I can guarantee it at the, you know, treasury department or at Commerce department saying, but we got special circumstances here in terms of the parts that we're making for aircraft that get assembled in South Korea or something, and we need special relief. Yes, every industry you're doing is putting in for everybody's going to be there the lobby. This is the greatest dream that the Washington lobbyist community ever had. Trump is literally saying he put this reciprocal tariff. You saw the whole schedule. That he had on that easel in the White House on April 2, immigration day. It was called Liberation Day. I called it Demolition Derby Day. There was a reciprocal tariff for every single country in the world based on a phony formula that said, if we have $100 million deficit with somebody, half of that was caused by cheating. So we're going to put a tariff in place closes half of the difference. I mean, just nonsense, Schoolboy idiocy. Now it is. I mean, I know everybody said, Oh, isn't it great? We've finally got rid of the bad guys, Biden, he's terrible, and the Democrats, I agree with all that, but we replaced one set of numb skulls with another set. Unfortunately, Republicans know better, but they're so intimidated, apparently buffaloed by Trump at the moment, that they're going along with this. But they know you don't put 145%tariff on anything. I mean, it's just nuts. David, I feel like you're telling us what you really think and absolutely love that. 

 

Keith Weinhold  41:04  

Interestingly, there is a Ronald Reagan clip about tariffs out there in a speech that he gave from Camp David, and it's something that's really had new life lately. In fact, we played the audio of that clip before you came onto the show today, Reagan said that he didn't like tariffs and that they hurt every American worker and consumer as Reagan's economic advisor in the White House. Did you advise him on that? 

 

David Stockman  41:27  

Yes, I did. And also I can give you a little anecdote that I think people will find interesting. Yeah, the one time that he deviated in a big way from his free trade commitments was when he put the voluntary export quota on the Japanese auto industry. That was big. I don't remember the exact number, but I think it said they couldn't export more than 1.2 million cars a year, or something like that the United States. And the number was supposed to adjust over time, but we had huge debates in the Cabinet Room about those things, and at the end of the day, here's what he said. He said, You know, I've always been for open trade, free trade. I've always felt it has to be fair trade. But, you know, in this case, the Japanese industry came to us and asked for voluntary quotas, so I didn't put up a trade barrier. I'm only accommodating their request. Well, the Japanese did come to him and ask. They did, but only when they were put up to it by the protectionists in the Reagan administration who, on this took them on the side, you know, their negotiators and maybe their foreign minister. I can't remember exactly who commerce secretary and said, If you don't ask for voluntary quotas, we're going to unleash Capitol Hill and you're going to get a real nasty wall put up against your car. So what will it be? Do you want to front for voluntary quotas? Are we going to unleash Congress? So they came to Reagan and said they were the Japanese industry said they're recommending that he impose voluntary restraints on auto exports. That was just a ruse. He wasn't naive, but he believed what you told him. He believed that everybody was honest like he was, and so he didn't understand that the Japanese industry that was brought to meet with him in the Oval Office had been put up to, it been threatened with, you know, something far worse, mandatory quote is imposed by Congress. But anyway, it's a little anecdote. What happened? On the other hand, he continued to articulate the case for small government sound money. We had deficit problems, but he always wanted a balanced budget. It was just hard to get there politically. And he believed that capitalism produces prosperity if you let capitalism work and keep the government out of the marketplace. And there is no bigger form of intervention and meddling and disruption in the capitalist system, in the free market, in the marketplace, than quotas on every product in every country at different levels. They're going to have 150 different countries negotiating bilaterally deals with the United States. That's the first thing that's ridiculous. They can't happen. The second thing is they're going to come up with deals that don't amount to a hill of beans, but they'll say, we have a deal. The White House will claim victory. Let me just give one example. As we know, one of the big things that Trump did in the first administration was he renegotiated NAFTA. And NAFTA was the free trade agreement between Mexico, Canada, United States. Before he started in 2017 the trade deficit of the US with Mexico and Canada combined with 65 billion. And he said, That's too big, and we got to fix NAFTA. We have got to rebalance the provisions so that the US comes out, not on the short end of the stick 65 billion. So they negotiated for about a year and a half, they announced a new deal, which he then renamed the United States, Mexico, Canada agreement, usmca, and, you know, made a big noise about it, but it was the same deal with the new name. They didn't change more than 2% of the underlying machinery and structure, semantics. Well now, so now we fast forward to 2024 so the usmca Trump's pride and joy, his the kind of deal that he says he's going to seek with every country in the world is now four years into effect. And what is the trade deficit with Canada and Mexico today, it's 230 5 billion okay? It's four times higher now than it was then when he put it in place. Why? Because we have a huge trade deficit with Mexico. Why because, you know, average wages there are less than $10 an hour, and they're $40 an hour here. That's why it has nothing to do with a bad trade deal. It has to do with cost differences. 

 

Keith Weinhold  46:27  

David, this has been great, and as we're winding down here, we have a lot of real estate investor listeners tell us what this administration's overall policies, not just tariffs, but overall policies, mean for future employment, and then tell us about your highly regarded contra corner newsletter. 

 

David Stockman  46:45  

Well, those are that's a big question. I think it doesn't mean good, because if they were really trying to get America back on track our economy, they would be fighting inflation tooth and nail to get it down to zero. They would be working day and night to implement what Musk came up with in the doge that is big spending cuts and balancing the budget. They're not doing that. They're letting all these announcements being made, but they're not actually cutting any spending. They would not be attempting to impose this huge apparatus of tariffs on the US economy, but they're not doing that. So I'm not confident we were going in the wrong direction under Biden, for sure, and we're going in an even worse direction right now under Trump. So that's the first thing. The second thing is, I put out a daily newsletter called David stockman's Country corner. You can yes signers on the internet, but this is what we write about every day, and I say A plague on both their houses, the Democrats, the Republicans. They're all, in many ways, just trying to justify government meddling, government spending, government borrowing, government money printing, when we would do a lot better if we went in the opposite direction, sound money, balanced budgets, free markets and so forth, so. And in the process, I'm not partisan. You know, I was a Republican congressman. I was a budget director of the Reagan administration. I have been more on the Republican side, obviously, over my career than the Democrats, but now I realize that both parties are part of the problem, and I call it the uni party when push comes to shove, the uni party has basically been for a lot of wars abroad and a lot of debt at home, and a lot of meddling in the economy That was unnecessary. So if you look at what I write every day, it tries to help people see through the pretenses and the errors of the unit party, Democrats and Republicans. And in the present time, I have to focus on Trump, because Trump is making all the noise. 

 

Keith Weinhold  48:59  

100% Yes, it sure has kept life and the news cycle exciting, whether someone likes that news or not. Well, David, this has been great. In fact, it sounds a lot like what Reagan might have told me, perhaps because you were a chief economic informant for him, smaller government, letting the free trade flow and lower inflation. Be sure to check out David stockman's contra corner newsletter if you like what we've been talking about today, just like it was last year, David, it's been a real pleasure having you on GRE today. 

 

David Stockman  49:30  

Well, thank you very much. And these are important issues, and we've got to stay on top of them.

 

Keith Weinhold  49:41  

Oh, yeah. Well, David Stockman truly no mincing words. He doesn't like tariffs. In summary, telling GRE listeners that the problem with trade imbalances is inflation attack that instead quell inflation, don't impose tariffs. A lot of developing nations and China have distinct advantages over manufacturing in the United States, besides having the trained labor and all the factories and systems in place, think about how many of these nations have built in lower costs they don't have to deal with these regulatory agencies, no EPA, no OSHA, and not even a minimum wage law to have to comply with. And here in the US get this, 80% of American workers agree that the US would benefit from more manufacturing jobs, but almost 75% disagree that they would personally be better off working in a factory themselves. That's according to a joint Cato Institute in YouGov survey. It's sort of like how last century, Americans lamented the demise of the family farm, yeah, but yet, they sure didn't want to work on a farm themselves. Now there are some types of manufacturing, like perhaps pharmaceuticals or computer chips that could likely be onshore, because those items are high value items. Their value can exceed the cost of being produced in the USA, but a lot of these factory goods, not again. If these topics interest you do a search for David stockman's contra corner, or you can directly visit David stockman's contra corner.com. Big thanks to the father of Reaganomics, David Stockman on the show this week. As for next week, we're back more toward the center of real estate investing. Until then, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream. Y

 

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Keith Weinhold  52:02  

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Complete episode transcript:

 

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai 

 

Keith Weinhold  0:00  

Keith, welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, there's been a real estate tragedy in my family. Then this past month, national home sales have plummeted to their worst level since 2009 then something is happening in the market for apartment buildings that shocked everybody and more all today on get rich education. 

 

Speaker 1  0:24  

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guessing the top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast, sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com

 

Speaker 2  1:09  

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education. 

 

Keith Weinhold  1:25  

welcome to GRE from Montreal, Quebec to Montrose, Michigan and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are back inside get rich education here in our 11th year, you're listening to one of America's longest running the most listened to shows on real estate investing, indeed, the 552nd consecutive week before we delve into the sad topic of terrible national home sales, the worst since 2009 which is a serious topic, first, a bit More of a light hearted topic, a real estate tragedy of sorts, has taken place inside my family, right inside my parents home, the same home that I grew up in. And you know, it's been a while since I had a good rant in an episode. So before we get to our core content today, my parents just replaced the nice, plush, warm, soft, inviting wall to wall carpets in both of their living rooms with laminate, hardwood floor. Oh no, this is disastrous. I mean, this is an abject property atrocity right in the home that I grew up in. Now, if you're a longtime listener, you know what I'm talking about. If you're newer here, it's probably been a couple years since I mentioned it. You know, everyone has their own quirks and idiosyncrasies, like you have certain ways of thinking about some things in your life, where you just know that you're in the minority of society with how you behave with that thing. Yeah, there are some things that you're counter cultural on. It's part of your unique personality, and it's what makes you you, well, one of my real estate idiosyncrasies and unorthodoxies is that I love deep, plush carpet, not hardwood floor, and hey, I don't expect you to agree with me on this. It's what makes me different. Now we'll talk about the flooring that you choose to use in your rental units in a moment and compare their prices and when you might want to use those things and when you don't. But we're just talking about home here, the flooring that you live on your primary residence. Why would anyone replace carpeting with hardwood, plank flooring? It is uninviting. It is cold, hard, and it even transfers noise more than quiet, comfortable, plush carpeting. And yes, hardwood floors can be heated. And some homeowners do that. They use what are called radiant heating systems, and they are installed beneath the floor, and these systems use either electric cables or sometimes mats or hydronic tubing, which are pipes filled with hot water in order to radiate that heat upwards into the floor. Now, something like that is what you'd be more likely to do in your own home, and not a rental unit, but even if you do that, hard floors are still, well, hard and noisier, like I just don't get it deep, plush carpet is superior. I'm not talking about the shag carpet that was popular 50 years ago, just plush carpet that hit its peak. In the 1990s Oh yes, that is the stuff I'm telling you. I mean plush carpet. That is the stuff that turns a house into a home. Well, my parents did just the opposite. They turned their home back into a house. Oh, dear. And, hey, it's their home. They can do whatever they want. Now, what are the main reasons that I hear about why people prefer laminate, hardwood flooring or luxury vinyl plank flooring over carpeting? That's what the majority of people want to do, and that's not what I want. Well, one reason, and this is the main reason that my parents did it, is that it looks nicer. In their opinion, looks nicer. I don't get it at all. I mean, even most cheap $1,000 apartments have been using like hardwood, plank flooring for close to 25 years now, there's nothing special about the way that it looks. Most of it anyway, some of it can look pretty cool. Now, some people want the hardwood because, well, they say that it's easier to clean. Easy to clean. Why in the world would you have trouble keeping your own home clean? I mean, if there's any space in the world that you keep clean, it is your humble abode. Now I know that it's easier for me to say that because I don't own any pets and still don't have kids, maybe you do replacing carpet for hard flooring is just an unspeakable act. What an uncalled for abhorrence, a repugnance. Other reasons that people say they prefer hardwood or vinyl plank over carpet is that it is allergy friendly. All right. Well, I don't have any trouble with allergies. But here's the thing that's even more confounding, most people that install a hard flooring. Well, the next thing that they do, and this is exactly what my mom and dad say that they're going to do next now that they put the hardwood floor in, is find some area rugs and cover it up so people put carpet on top of the hardwood floor anyway, but then yet, that carpet cannot be plush and padded underneath like real Carpet would be, because it's just like a piece that's rolled out, plus it cancels out, then all these pet friendly and allergy free benefits, plus it might be even harder to clean, because now you got to clean both the carpet and the edges of the room where the stupid hardwood flooring is showing I mean, it makes zero sense, so this just all compounds how I am confounded on how almost everybody in the world, it seems they want hardwood floor. I feel like I'm the only person in the world sticking up for carpeting. I do not expect you to agree with me here. It is just my, I guess, oddball preference. I also do a lot of exercises down on the floor. That's where the best high intensity interval training workouts take place. Down on the floor. Plush carpet is best for that too. Oh, the myriad reasons that carpet is superior, I'll tell you. Well, I'll next be staying at my parents place in two months, as I'll spend a lot of July there, and that's when I will first be witness to this transgression, this incomprehensible abomination. I mean, it is almost malfeasance.

 

The reason that I care more about this than most sons of parents would is that my parents have lived in the same home since I was age one. I have a lot of memories there, and when I visit my parents in rural upstate Pennsylvania, I sleep in the same exact bedroom that I have since age one. Really special continuity there. What's more important than the flooring changing in the two living rooms is that, like I've told you before, I won the parent lottery, I did not have an affluent upbringing, but my brother and I had a top 1% childhood anyway, because we have two married, committed parents that are still together, still healthy and loved us. I phone my parents at least weekly, and I send them messages all the time. I guess it's a good time to think about that as this is the last episode before Mother's Day, and if you did not win the parent lottery, like I did in the way that I just described. Well, the good news is that you can do something about it. You can provide that same stable, nurturing environment to your children, and that way, they will win the parent lottery. Now, when it comes to. My rental properties, I do have hardwood flooring virtually everywhere and in every property, from single family rentals up to apartment buildings, because I don't have to live on it now, I probably do have some bedrooms in those rentals where there's carpeting, yeah, I mean hard floors that makes sense for the durability in a rental. I mean, with rentals, you might have to replace the carpet every three to five years. That is cost prohibitive. So for real estate investing, hardwood flooring, which, again, it's really a trend that became widespread in America about 25 years ago. I mean, that trend was really good for real estate investors. Tenants actually prefer this intolerable condition, perhaps much like you do. Now let me talk about five main types of flooring, how much they cost per square foot, and where you might want to use different flooring types in different situations, as we've already established. For me, it is carpet, carpet, carpet, wall to wall, everywhere, except for kitchens, bathrooms and maybe the laundry room. Seriously, though, for you and how you want to think about this and these prices include the total for both the material and the installation is for hardwood plank flooring, which is that atrocity that my parents committed. Expect to pay about $25 per square foot. And of course, all these costs are going to vary based on the wood species, the finish and the part of the world that you're in for LVP, luxury vinyl plank that's about $8 installed. LVP is a good choice because it mimics the hardwood esthetics. It's waterproof, and as you can see there, its cost is less than half of that of hardwood plank. So LVP can be a good choice for bathrooms and maybe a kitchen, and though the name luxury might be cheapened or diluted somewhat in that name, LVP, it's a bit over named. I suppose it's that that name is given to help distinguish it from vinyl flooring. Because when you hear the term vinyl flooring, what do you think of you think of sheets, something that comes in a roll in sheet vinyl only costs maybe about $5 installed. And then carpeting installed, my favorite at home, but not in rentals that costs about $6 per square foot. And then the last major flooring type is tile, and the cost of tile is really all over the place because of its different material types. Tile can be made of so many things, going from cheapest to most expensive ceramic. That's about $20 per square foot. Again, this is the cost installed for both the materials and the time it takes to install it, porcelain, 20 to 25 natural stone tile can be 40 bucks or more, and then glass tile can be a little more expensive than that, yet. So those are the approximate prices for your flooring, what you can expect to pay because, of course, plank flooring and tile, it doesn't have to be replaced as often as carpet and sheet vinyl. That's something to keep in mind when you think about those prices. But yeah, I have bought apartment buildings before, where, when I bought it, every unit was carpeted, and then as each tenant moved out, one by one, I would have my property managers contractor replace it with hard plank flooring, the radiant heat that you'd place beneath hard flooring that I described earlier, that is cost prohibitive to put in a long term rental in almost every case, that's something you'd only want to do in your own home, or maybe, just maybe a luxury short term rental in a cold climate, Like a ski resort town or something like that. So yes, you have now learned about one of my odd quirks, and you've learned about flooring types. Another of my idiosyncrasies is my preference for back scratching rather than massages. But that has nothing to do with real estate, and we've got more important topics to move on to heck. Come on, though, you might have some weird quirks, even more weird than mine. In fact, maybe real estate investors in general have more quirks than mainstream society. Because, you know, real estate investing is a little countercultural itself, right? We own things that pay us to own it every month with mainstream society and 401, KS, you have to pay it with every paycheck. Now. Who in the heck would do that? 

 

The title of this week's episode has to do with the fact that spring existing home sales are now at their worst level since two. 2009 the worst in all that time. Now, and understand when I say home sales, that means the volume of sales, the number of transactions. We're not talking about the prices now, the outlook for home prices is also less rosy now as well. I'll get to that shortly. But why are the number of property transactions at their lowest level in 16 years like this? Let's listen in to Diana Olick at CNBC. She's talking about March, but that's the newest month reported. You got to remember that real estate stats run in arrears more so than most essay classes. This report is a real bellwether for the spring housing market and how this year could turn out. This is a little over a minute, and then I'll be back to comment.

 

We also have some housing data just cross the tape. Diana olik Has that for us. Diana, Well, David, existing home sales in March fell a much wider than expected, 5.9% from February to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.0 2 million units sales down 2.4% from March of last year, and that is the slowest March sales pace since 2009 the Great Recession. Now remember, this count is based on closing, so its contracts likely signed in January and February, when mortgage rates were over 7% but it was before the market volatility of April, supply is rising fast, 1.3 3 million units for sale at the end of March, up nearly 20% from the year before. That makes a four month supply, which is still on the lean side. Six months is considered a balanced market. More inventory and slower sales are starting to put the chill on prices. The median price of an existing home sold in March was $403,700 that's still an all time high for the month, but it's only up 2.7% from last March, and that annual comparison is shrinking. First time, buyers made up 32% of the market, the same as last year, they should be around 40% all cash dropped to 26% from 28th the year before, but investors house steady at 15% of sales. Sarah, all right, have a bad combo, weaker sales, higher prices. Diana, thank you very much. Diana Olek.

 

okay, we just learned that the latest month shows the slowest spring housing market for that month since 2009 and that the supply of available homes is up 20% since last year. All right? Well, if the supply of homes is up, then why is the volume of sales down? Well, it's the same reasons that we've had for a couple years soured affordability and the ongoing lock in effect, and that soured affordability is just more set in I hope you caught it. Note that this 16 year low in sales volume is for existing homes, okay, brand new home sales are healthier. The nation is still undersupplied of housing Overall, though, with four months of supply, of course, six months is that balance point. Now, the worst news here, with this low sales volume is not affecting the homeowner or the investor. It is affecting the renter somewhat more, because they're having to stay as renters. But it's really tough. Just horribly bad news for people that are in the business of home sales, like realtors and other agents. Mortgage lenders are losing business too. So are title insurers, moving truck companies, furniture companies, and for those consumers in the market to buy and sell homes. It's actually troublesome news for society. Less residential mobility means less economic mobility and more people stuck in place. And how are we going to get Americans moving again? It is lower mortgage rates. It's probably not going to come from a substantial lowering of prices. Prices keep rising, as you heard in that clip, up 2.7% year over year, but as we look out in future months, you know, I can feel it. Price growth seems to be flattening out. Zillow and some other agencies have lowered their home price appreciation forecast for the year, I really keep up on this stuff in research, in my estimate is that the consensus is that there will be zero to 2% home price growth this year. That's not me saying that. That's me amalgamating what others say, and they don't always get it right, and this year still has a long way to go, but you know, there is just this sort of general malaise in the real estate market where there's not a lot of activity for primary residence buyers. In that clip, you heard that investor purchases are steady, constituting 15, one 5% Of home purchases, just like they did in the previous period. So that's what a low sales volume means, and that's who is affected. It is not a vibrant market out there. I still don't see anything on the horizon that could make home prices jump as much as 10% this year, not even substantially lower mortgage rates could do that. In my opinion, tariffs impact to construction costs over the next few months. You know, it's probably quite a bit less than you think. The prevailing current view among the number of developers for now is that construction costs will increase between one and 3% on wood frame builds. And wood frame builds that represents the vast majority of apartment and build to rent projects and now that one to 3% that's by no means immaterial, but it's also not some crazy surge like some headlines have suggested. So as you're out there listening to media reports on the housing market, as you can see, you've got to listen closely to what you're being told. The volume of sales and the median price are two very different things, and they're both moving in different directions, sales down, price up, also the existing home market and the new build home market are, of course, different, but you got to listen closely sometimes in order to pick that up. That also helps to be attentive to if you hear that new build prices are falling, you got to think about what that means, because in recent years, builders have responded to weak affordability by building smaller homes to try to make them more affordable, so they might be selling for actually more money on a square footage basis, even though their price is lower, it's because the homes are smaller. And then another thing is, when you hear that sellers are cutting prices, be attentive to what that really means. For example, say that median home values in an area are 450k and if a seller advertises a perfectly median home for 475k therefore it's a little overpriced, and say it doesn't sell in a month, and then they drop the price to 460 and sell it for that well, then what they've done is that they cut the price, yet at the same time, they moved the median price up from 450 to 460 so despite a price cut, that was about a 2% gain in sale price there in That example, that is how a price cut results in moving up in areas median price. So there's a lot to be attentive to when you look at news like that. As volatile as stocks have been lately, a lot of people are grateful to have their dollars invested in really stable real estate. When Stocks are volatile, the rent just keeps coming in. In fact, in a let's look at history over hunch's vein, when stocks crash, which all define as a loss of 20% or more, what happens to home prices now, a while ago, here on the show, I discussed what historically happens with home prices during recessions. But this is different. This is what happens during stock market crashes, because the stock market is not the economy. Aside from the one bad mortgage blow up of a housing market induced economic recession from 2008 to 2010 which was bad. Home prices do not go down when the stock market crashes. In fact, real estate prices usually rise when stocks plunge hard. Let's look at the five other times that this has happened since 1980 and we'll take the S, p5, 100 index high to its low. All right, in november of 1980 the S P was at 135 points. And doesn't it sound funny to say that that sounds like a ridiculously small number? Yes, the S P was at 135 points. Then by August of 1982 almost two years later, it tanked to 109 during that time, home prices went up 7.2% then in the late 80s, it was August of 1987 the S P was at 329. In November of that year, it fell to 245, I mean, that was a massive stock drop of almost 35% in just about three months, the result, home prices went down 1.7% but that happens almost every year, from summer to late autumn. In August of 2000 the S P was at 1485 by February of 03 it went down to 803 37 I mean, that was a major stock crash. During that time, home prices went up 11 and a half percent, and then we got into COVID. Times, March of 2020, 3277 was the level April of 2020, just a month later, down to 2653 home prices went up 2.1% during that month. And then finally, December of 2021, 4675 October of 2022, 3726 that was a big stock market drawdown during that time, home prices went up 5.3% so there you go. The stable nature of real estate is something that's a really valuable attribute during massive stock market drops. And I think there are a lot of people that don't realize that since World War Two, home prices have only fallen significantly one time, and it was that awful period around 2008 now, in fact, you know something interesting related to this, last month, I took that cog railway tour that goes to the top of Pikes Peak in Colorado. You might have taken that train before. It's pretty popular. It's a nice way to spend an afternoon. Well, on that cog railway tour, I got talking to a passenger. He was there with his wife and family, and this was an intelligent, professional guy. He worked in the VE printing space, so he was pretty interesting to talk to. I asked him about that. And this guy, this passenger on the train, he asked me about real estate, once he knew that that's my field. He said the strangest thing to me, but I think a lot of people think this way. He asked me, don't real estate prices have a 10 year cycle? They have a price correction and go down every 10 years, and then the values start going back up again. What I didn't laugh in this guy sure wasn't stupid. I mean, hey, he's in the 3d printing space, and maybe I have some misconceptions about his field too. But it's almost as unlikely that home prices will fall appreciably than that grocery store prices would fall significantly. Both things really unlikely. I don't know how people think things like this. 

 

To summarize what you just learned in this segment, hardwood flooring in the living room is an abomination of inhumane proportions. Existing home sales volume hit low levels not seen since 2009 home prices are still rising, but the pace of that growth is slowing, and when the stock market takes a big hit, real estate historically performs well most of the time. We're talking about residential real estate in the one to four unit space so far coming up a trend in the larger apartment building world that shocked a lot of experts. That's next. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education. 

 

You know what's crazy? Your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back. No weird lockups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing. Check it out. Text family. 266, 866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund again. Text family. 266, 86 

 

Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com, that's Ridge lendinggroup.com.

 

Speaker 3  29:53  

This is the king of commercial real estate, Dolph de Roos. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold. And don't Quit your Daydream.

 

Keith Weinhold  30:10  

Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, being springtime, it's also graduation time. If you're looking for a gift idea for a graduate, consider doing what I did. My niece is about to graduate from high school. That's my brother's oldest daughter. I gave her two gifts, cash plus gold cash because, I mean, come on, any 18 year old wants something that they can use. You want to give them something that they want. But I gave gold as well, not because it's in a massive bull market right now, which it is, but saving that can help her tangibly see and understand the diminished purchasing power of the dollar over time. Be mindful, dollars are just currency, but gold is money. So yes, I like my niece, but apparently not enough to give her a little rock turnkey property. As we know, wannabe homeowners have been roughed up with poor buyer affordability that started around 2022 they must either patiently wait for Mr. Beast to give them a home, or they need to keep renting apartment demand just could not keep up with 2023 and 2020 four's massive surge in new apartment construction that left a lot of units vacant. It meant that any new renters were quickly absorbed, and as a result, rent growth stayed flatter than a soda left open for a week. Builders overachieved, and renters under showed back then, but in 2025 and 2026 new apartment construction deliveries are going to keep falling from their peak even in 2027 that's probably going to happen. And we can already project this, because it takes two years, basically, to build an apartment from permitting to completion and permits are down. The dynamics of the apartment market are pretty straightforward. It takes around two to three months to turn permits into construction starts, and then it takes an additional 19 months to complete and deliver new units. So that's the two years or so that I'm talking about. The past high housing starts have therefore shown up as completions here. In recent months, the high completions are predominantly in southern states, and that's exactly why apartment rents have been falling in places like Atlanta, Charlotte, Tampa, Dallas and Austin. Even though those are the places that people are moving to, oppositely in California, it is especially tough to get permits, and tougher even yet to get apartments completed, there will be acute housing shortages in California. If recent past trends hold, then homelessness is going to be an ongoing problem. Moderate income workers cannot make ends meet, and therefore they're going to leave the state, California simply needs to build more housing to reduce the homeless problem and help out the moderate income workers. The real surprise is that today, national demand for apartments keeps coming in at high levels that defy even the most bullish forecasts. Real page recorded the best first quarter for net absorption in more than 25 years. It was 138,000 units. Costar called it the second best q1 in more than 25 years with 128,000 units. And now those numbers don't mean much to you until you realize that this century apartment demand absorption, you know, is typically in a range of 30 to 80,000 units per quarter, and we're looking at double, triple or quadruple that now. And what all that really means is that there is a surprisingly healthy level of well qualified demand for US apartments. All right, so this net absorption that I'm talking about, which is move ins minus move outs, that being over 100,000 units like this, that's something that you might see in busier leasing seasons, like towards summer q2 and q3 but rarely in q1 and apartment demand. It came in hot in nearly every region of the country. So what is going on here? What are the reasons for this surging apartment demand? I mean, sure, for one, it's the one that you already realized. Eyes, fewer people can buy houses. But it's more than just fewer people can buy houses, it's also, if you build it, they will come. I mean, cranes have dotted skylines in US cities for the past few years, apartment construction soared. It's also wage increases. They have outpaced inflation, and both of those have outpaced apartment rent growth, helping with affordability. Another reason for surging apartment demand are those baked in demographics. We had this surge in US births from 1990 to 2010 and that means that think about the age that they are now. That means this group is hitting peak. Let me get out of my parents house age. A whole lot of Netflix accounts are being split into those. People are moving out and getting an apartment. Well, with this in mind a surge of apartment demand in fewer new apartments being built over the next two years. You know, you think about what this means for a while here I've discussed how in real estate, today's best opportunities are one to four unit turnkey properties, especially new builds and also burr properties. I mean, those things have been the MVPs of this cycle, and you keep finding those properties and buying them at GRE marketplace, but apartment buildings, I mean, they're probably warming up in the bullpen by now, I might be able to add those to the mix soon, and to add those to the list about where the opportunity is, because apartment building values have been suppressed Ever since mortgage rates spiked in 2022 but it's probably not time to swing the bat quite yet. Of course it is in some cases. There are always some exceptions, but when you look around today, you know you got to consider apartment landlords. They still got to commonly offer concessions to fill their rent rolls. They're having to give away a free month's rent here and waived some fees over there. But demand, you know, it really tangibly, is starting to catch up with supply now, and when it comes to rent growth, it's still been pretty pathetic for apartments. Okay, apartments still lag behind single family rentals. Now apartment rents, they're only up a week, 1.1% year over year. Really weak. That's the latest figure, a paltry 1.1% apartment rent growth less than inflation then, and that's per real page market analytics, incredibly that 1.1% is actually the highest apartment rent growth rate in 21 months. So the bottom line here is that the apartment market, it has been through the wringer. They've been beaten up by rate hikes and drowned in supply and ghosted by demand. But finally, after years of gloom, the clouds are starting to part for apartment buildings, supply slows and demand grows here at get rich education, you know, I'm trying to give you the knowledge in the tools that I wish I had when I began, where the opportunities are, how to think about real estate, how to know about how you get paid. I mean, knowing all that sooner really would have made my life easier, like frameworks through which to understand real estate investing and the resources so that you can make it actionable and build your real estate portfolio. You'll notice that our provider network at GRE marketplace has recently expanded, and perhaps the best tool of all, that's our free in house investment coaching. We make it easier and hold your hand through the process of buying your first investment property. If you're a more experienced investor, our coaching helps you assess and evaluate the GRE Income Property inventory and help you decide which geographies seem to be most conducive to your goals, and of course, find that real estate pays five ways. Kind of property. Don't let uncertainty prevent you from taking action, because GRE coaching is free access those off market deals. There's no agent that has to be compensated. You'll get free help along your journey, from making the offer, submitting your earnest money, inspection, appraisal, your management agreement, what your closing day is like, and more or perhaps the coaching will help you decide that it's not the right time for you to add income property based on your own unique circumstances. We help you do it all and make it easy. I often like to leave you with something actionable for a free GRE investment coaching Strategy Session customized just exactly to you. Start at GREinvestment coach.com until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream. 

 

Speaker 4  40:03  

Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC exclusively.

 

Keith Weinhold  40:27  

You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies, disclaimers, it's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called The Don't quit your Daydream. Letter, it wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text GRE 268, 66 while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text GRE 266, 866,

 

Speaker 1  41:42  

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get richeducation.com

Keith discusses strategies for building wealth in real estate, emphasizing efficient property operations and leveraging. He suggests setting tenant occupancy limits, sub-metering utilities, and increasing rentable space.

He explains the leverage ratio, which measures the relationship between debt and equity, and advises maintaining a high ratio for better returns. 

Hear his take on the Florida's real estate market, including falling property values, oversupply, and rising insurance premiums. Despite these issues, Keith remains optimistic about Florida's long-term potential due to its population growth and low taxes.

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Complete episode transcript:

 

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai 

 

Keith Weinhold  0:00  

Welcome to GRE I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, today, the two things you've got to focus on if you're ever going to build wealth as a real estate investor, why Trump wants to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, then, is Florida real estate doomed with falling property values, a housing oversupply, spiking insurance premiums and slowing population growth. It's episode 551, of get rich education. 

 

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being the flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, who delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com

 

Speaker 1  1:16  

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

 

Keith Weinhold  1:32  

Welcome to GRE from Manhattan, Kansas to the finance capital of Manhattan in New York City, and across 188 nations worldwide, you are back inside get rich Education. I'm your host, and my name is Keith Weinhold. I think you know that by now, because we deliver weekly shows more steadily and predictably than a new tariff policy. I've got more on tariffs in a funny clip on Trump wanting to fire Jerome Powell in stories on that level soon. But first, you know one thing that I've made you mindful of lately is that a successful real estate investor needs to pay attention to two big things if you want to build wealth First, keep your property operations efficient. This is your cash flow function. And second look at your net worth statement, and be mindful that you are leveraging as many dollars as you responsibly can. Let me break down both of these for you so that you can see what I really mean here the first one, keeping your property operations efficient. That means that right up front, with a new tenant in the application, find out how many tenants are going to live there, and firmly let them know that they cannot exceed this or that they're in violation of the lease. Can you get 20% more rent, or even 50% more rent by furnishing your unit and marketing it not as a long term rental, but as a midterm rental, and targets, say health professionals that are traveling if you're in a hot rental market. Can you simply keep the rent the same, but have new incoming tenants pay a utility bill for you that you had previously been paying by sub metering your utilities. Other examples of taking the rental property you already have and making it more efficient, you know, there are more classic items, like increasing your rentable space, renting out separate on site, storage space, adding a carport, charging pet rent or just boosting the curb appeal. Can you build an adu on your property? How about appealing your property taxes or automating your rent collection. Why don't you take a look at your insurance policies? You know, a lot of them have $1,000 deductibles. Well, if you're an economically resilient investor, consider raising your deductibles to 5k that way you lower your insurance premium and increase your cash flow that way. I mean really, putting in insurance claims can be somewhat of a pain anyway. Okay, well, right. There were maybe, I don't know, 10 or 15 quick ideas for streamlining your property's operations and increasing your cash flow. Now, don't try to do every one of them, but if there's at least one or two that you can think of as low hanging fruit to go ahead and harvest with the nature of what you've got going in your portfolio. And you know, ideas like I just shared there, you can hear about that on some other real estate investing platforms. But you know what the bigger gain. Is that you can actually make they take less work and fewer people talk about these things all right, and that's the second thing I'm talking about. Yes, it is typically more profitable for you and less work for you. If, instead of all those things, you increase your leverage ratio. Now, doing this does not help your cash flow, it helps your net worth. And net worth is something that you can later convert to cash flow. And this second one increasing your leverage that's a strategy that you just don't hear about on very many real estate investing platforms. So I haven't discussed leverage ratio in a long time. So let's talk about what it is, how you can improve yours, and then what it does for building your wealth. Okay, it's the relationship between your debt and your equity, and here's how to determine yours, and then I'll tell you how you're performing. Once you've determined yours, you might even be able to do it roughly in your head. All you do is take the total value of all the real estate that you own and divide it by your loan balances. That's it. Say you own a million dollars worth of real estate and you've got 500k of total debt on all that real estate. Well, it's really simple. Just divide your value a million bucks, buy your debt, 500k and your leverage ratio is two to one. Let's just call that two. If you're looking to build wealth, that number of two is kind of low. It should be higher. It means that you've got 50% equity in your property. Now say that instead, on the day that you bought that million dollars in real estate, you only made a 200k down payment. That's awesome. A million bucks divided by 200k your leverage ratio is five. All right. Well, what are these numbers really mean? Like this two and this five? All right, it's important because it is what you use to multiply your real estate's rate of appreciation by in order to find your rate of return. So just say that your real estate appreciates 4% this year. If your leverage ratio is just two, that's only an 8% return on your skin in the game. But if you've got more debt and your leverage ratio is five, then a 4% return means you've got a 20% return on your skin in the game. Do that keep your leverage ratio high? Now, what if your leverage ratio falls all the way down to a one. What does that mean? Oh, dear, you're not really doing much to build wealth because all of your properties are paid off. You don't have any mortgages on them. So if you're down to a one, all you've got working for you, from an appreciation standpoint, is compound interest. That's the point at which you've fallen from a compound leverage instrument down to a compound interest instrument. And as we know here at GRE which is counter to the mainstream world. And yeah, the mainstream world is where you have to work all of your life at a job you hate. And that's what you'll do if all you have is unlevered compound interest, all right, and if all you have is unlevered compound interest, well, don't book your Blue Origin flight quite yet. You're not going to go on one you can count on sitting behind a desk for decades instead.

 

All right. Well, how do you determine your leverage ratio? Again, it's your total real estate value divided by your equity. All right. Now, how do you keep your number high? By making new purchases with 20 to 25% down payments, and by not making new purchases is another way, and instead performing cash out refinances or doing both, you know another way to increase your leverage ratio, and you might not have thought about this, it's when real estate values fall. Now, that's surely not a desirable way to do it, and it doesn't happen often, but when real estate values fall, that drops both your real estate's value and your equity value by the same amount. And interestingly, with some of the ways that I described that you can add value to a property earlier, like a carport, that makes your cash flow better, but it does make your leverage ratio worse at the same time, a way to decrease your leverage ratio fast and lower your wealth building potential fast is to make an extra principal payment of a few 1000 bucks. I mean that one act alone might drop it from, say, a 3.14 to a three point. One Two over night. But look, I don't know what real estate markets you're invested in, and if you tell me what your number is, I'm gonna know how much your future wealth building power is, because you're keeping dollars not merely compounding, but leveraged. And if your number falls below about two and a half, which means 40% equity, that's typically when I begin looking to refinance or sell an equity heavy property, to do a 1031 into a bigger one. So two and a half, that's the number where you often want to take action. And really this is all just a fresh way of approaching an enduring mantra here at GRE Oh yeah, financially free beats debt free, and this sure can make you a mutineer among the masses. And I've been talking about these mutineers sort of things a lot lately, even with a tinge of irreverence. Perhaps you might remember that three weeks ago here on the show, I discussed how, depending on your circumstance, you can even make a car loan good debt, and how a seven figure income is the new six figures and then, yes, perhaps more irreverence. Last week in your free audio course, it was pretty iconoclastic to break down in detail how a 38% rate of return from just everyday buy and hold real estate is not risky at all. And last week's episode 550 the free course, that's probably the most important episode we've done in a long time. For a beginning real estate investor, if you've got any relative or friend in your life that you know, do you have someone around you that just doesn't get it about real estate investing, that really doesn't understand why you do this, please go ahead and share last week's episode with him. Episode 550 now on to the actual person of one, Donald John Trump. And why do I always say his name that way? I don't know. I'm not sure how that ever got started, but I don't say that as often as I call myself a remorseless slack jaw. In any case, the President wants to fire the Fed Chair Jerome Powell. This is nothing new. It just flared up again. I mean, here's the latest flare up. Listen to how Trump says he's never been fond of Powell. Okay, key in on that. This is Tom llamas on NBC, nightly news. You'll also hear the voices of Trump, Powell and Elizabeth Warren in Washington. 

 

Unknown Speaker  8:38  

There's a mounting standoff between President Trump and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. The President blasting Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates, accusing him of playing politics. Gabe Gutierrez is at the White House with markets on edge and his trade war escalating. President Trump is lashing out at the Federal Reserve Chairman he once appointed, writing on social media that Jerome Powell's termination cannot come fast enough. I don't think he's doing the job. He's too late, always too late. Slow. And I'm not happy with him. I let him know it, and if I want him out, he'll be out of there real fast, believe me, the rebuke coming after this warning from Powell Wednesday, tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation, the President now slamming him for not cutting interest rates to help the economy. We have a Federal Reserve Chairman that is playing politics, somebody that I've never been very fond of, actually, but he's playing politics. Powell says the Fed needs more clarity before making a move. We're never going to be influenced by any political pressure. People can say whatever they want. That's fine. Trump had previously said he would not try to replace Powell, and earlier this week, the Treasury Secretary stressed the importance of an independent federal reserve. I believe that monetary policy is a jewel box that's got to be preserved. Democrats warning of chaos if Powell is ousted, if Chairman Powell can be fired by the President of the United States, it will crash the markets in the United States. Powell, whose term as Fed Chair ends next year, has said the President does not have the legal authority to fire him. If he asked you to leave, would you go? No.

 

Keith Weinhold  14:38  

 In that clip, Trump said he's never been very fond of pow dude. You appointed him, you You appointed him as Fed Chair in your first term, where you must have liked him more than any of the other candidates. Geez. Now you may or may not like Powell, but I don't see how. He's playing politics before lowering interest rates, it's completely sensible for him to see how the tariffs play out first. The Fed has long been independent of the executive branch, so they're supposed to be Trump wants Powell to lower interest rates. And remember, Powell already cut rates a full 1% late last year, and I really don't even agree with that cut when inflation was still elevated. Trump says Powell is always too late. Well, everyone agrees that Powell was too late to raise rates back in 2022 I mean, that had to do with the whole gaff where he said that inflation is just transitory, and no one will let Powell forget that. But do you give pal credit for a soft landing? I mean, he since brought down inflation while keeping us out of a recession, that's the definition of a soft landing. You know, I don't fully give pal credit there, just a little but remember, by that point, the inflation damage has already been done. It's already hurt a lot of people, and that's not changing. Now, of course, the inflation enriched you and it enriched me, because we're the real estate investors, and inflation is always going to do that for us. What happened is that Trump is frustrated because he saw the European Central Bank just lower their rates. So that's why he wants to see that happen here too. Because of course, lower rates can help the economy, at least in the short term. So I wondered about what you think. So what I did is I asked you in our latest Instagram poll, the question I asked was simply, should Jerome Powell be retained or fired? I was a little surprised at the result. 38% of GRE Instagram poll respondents said pal should be retained, and 62% said fired. I didn't think as many as 62% would say fire Powell. My best guess is that it's because you want lower interest rates on mortgages, and my next best guess is that you want to fire Powell, not because you dislike him, but more because you want to abolish the Fed completely, which I guess means that Powell would be fired that way. Did you hear about what happened when Donald Trump called tech support? Yeah. He told them, my tariffs aren't working. Tech Support responded with, did you try turning them off and back on again. 

 

Hey, coming up shortly is Florida real estate doomed. If you'd like to reach out to us here at the show, you can do so at get rich education.com/contact, that's whether you have a comment or a question or a concern or a content suggestion you can communicate either through voice or email on our contact page, there one thing that we don't need, respectfully, are booking agents for shows reaching out to us. You know, I used to say that we have 50 times as many guest requests to be on the show with me here as we do available spots, but now it is more than 50x and I'm really grateful to host a platform where I guess a lot of people want to join in and contribute here, but the reality is that we only have one show a week, and a lot of weeks like this one I don't have any guests at all on the Show. That page is monitored by my terrific executive assistant, Brenda, just like most everyone here at GRE She's an active real estate investor too, and again, comments, questions or concerns about the show, please contact us at the contact page and get rich education.com/contact. More. Next you're listening to get rich education. 

 

You know what's crazy? Your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back. No weird lockups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing. Check it out. Text family to 66866, to learn about freedom family investments, liquidity fund again. Text family to 66866 

 

Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com, that's ridgelendinggroup.com.

 

T. Harv Ecker  20:45  

This is the millionaire minds. T. Harv Ecker, you're listening to the powerful Get rich education with Keith Weinhold. Don't quit your day dream.

 

Keith Weinhold  21:10  

Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold is Florida real estate doomed. Most anyone that pays attention has probably noticed that the Sunshine State has some areas, well, really, a number of them where property values have actually fallen. This is tied to the fact that there's an inventory over supply. There have been spiking insurance premiums tied to hurricanes. And what about the slowing population growth, and since the pandemic, Florida has had some of the fastest growing, highest appreciating markets in the entire nation. But today, in fact, there's a giant home builder there KB Homes that finds Florida's housing market. In their words, it's weak enough that they are cutting prices this spring. And KB Homes is ranked number 545 on the fortune 1000 so they're pretty sizable. And then an even larger home builder, Lennar, they basically said the same thing. The CEO of KB Homes said, quote, demand at the start of this spring selling season was more muted than what we have seen historically, despite a healthy level of traffic in our communities. So we took steps to reposition our communities to offer the most compelling value, and buyers responded favorably to those adjustments. End of the quote, yes, that is a genteel way of saying that we had to cut prices to get buyers like I mentioned to you, starting, gosh, probably a year ago or more, that other home builders have, instead of cutting prices, offered mortgage rate buy downs to buyers, be mindful though of how much your home builder is paying for those buy downs and how much you are at the closing table. Now, as we know, nationally, there's still a housing supply shortage, but KB, who does business in other states, says that Florida is the weakest, and that's due to over supply. Now let's forget about in migration for a second. Okay, that weakness is because a lot of communities are overbuilt to the point that the in migration rate cannot keep up with the over building. And of course, it's hard to generalize. Florida is a big, populous state of 23 million people. Southwest Florida has been hit the hardest that's pretty well documented. Punta Gorda, home values are down 9% year over year. Cape Coral down 7% let's go to the opposite end of the state, and Jacksonville, up in Northeast Florida that has about seven months of housing supply. It's actually pretty close to a balanced market between buyers and sellers, and then in the center of the state, Orlando, there's six months of supply that is a balanced market where there is normalcy in negotiation between buyers and sellers and a smattering of offers on one property And no one rushing and doing things like waving their inspection and then Miami Fort Lauderdale, you know, I really don't talk about them much on the show, because their prices are too high to work well as long term cash flowing rentals, both KB and Lennar say that they're keeping an eye on tariffs and that the changes to immigration have not changed their operations very much yet, because, remember, a lot of construction laborers are immigrants, and if they get deported, and then you need to hire native born US labor. Well, home prices go up, all right. Well, what about the Florida insure? Crisis. You know, over the past few years in Florida, a bunch of carriers have just withdrawn. They have pulled out of the state, farmers, insurance, bankers, insurance, Lexington insurance, all pulled out. Farmers told The New York Times that this business decision was necessary to effectively manage risk exposure. Similarly, AAA is another carrier, and they said that they're not going to renew some policies. They said the markets become challenging. 2022 catastrophic hurricane season that really contributed to an unprecedented rise in reinsurance rates, and that made it more costly for insurance companies to operate there at all. And prior to that, the market was already strained and had increased claims costs due to inflation and excessive litigation. That's what triple A said. All right, so where does this leave homeowners? Well, some are already relying on state and federal insurance programs, like the National Flood Insurance Program. There's a state carrier called citizens now, flood insurance is not required outside of a special hazard flood area, but that doesn't mean that a home is going to escape flooding if a hurricane passes through, but having insurance it does help along and accelerate the recovery process. Florida has some of the best Building Code adoption and enforcement in the country, and that fact alone has saved 1000s of homes and billions of dollars. But modern building codes are not necessarily applied retroactively to older homes. So it's those homes and properties that really have more exposure to hurricanes, those older properties, and a lot of Floridians are just skipping insurance coverage altogether so that they don't have to pay the premiums. They don't have any coverage. If you don't have a lien holder, you can do that. You can skip it, right? Well, like, How bad is it? Exactly? Just, how much have Florida insurance premiums been jacked up at this point. They've increased 60% on average between 2019, and 2023, and while homeowners and investors are primarily bearing that rising cost burden, I mean, insurers are feeling that squeeze as well. It's not just that the incidence of hurricane events is up, but premiums rise, of course, when the cost of labor in materials that it takes to replace and rebuild a damaged home have gone up as well things like concrete and structural steel and now, of course, as real estate investors, we can eventually pass on the cost of our higher insurance premiums to the tenant in the form of a rent increase, But when it goes up 60% in just four years. It's really hard to keep up with that. Florida's infrastructure is under some strain, too, and I see this when I drive the Tampa area. Every few years, I see more and more traffic. It takes me longer to get places like it takes me two or three cycles to go through a traffic light, where it only took me one cycle a few years ago. So roads and schools and utilities are under some duress to keep up with the population growth over the past decade, statewide commute times are up 11% you know, really that shouldn't be a surprise. I mean, that is common in any high growth area. Now, when it comes to insurance rate increases, there is a good chance that the worst is now over. Yes, Florida, insurance rate increases have been slowing down. The average rate increases have dropped quite a bit from 21% back in 2023 to a projected just two tenths of 1% for 2025 okay. I mean, that's basically no change expected for this year. Citizens, property insurance, that state option that I mentioned earlier, their rates are also shrinking, with some policyholders experiencing rate decreases of 5% or more. Now, I told you on a previous show that if you're looking to add rental property in Florida, go with new build properties for low insurance rates. But now I actually got a hold of some real policies between some of my properties and some of my friends properties. I've got them right in front of me here on a 1970s build single family home. I mean, the premiums can be high. We're basically paying 1% or more of the property's value in insurance premiums each year. So a 250k A valued single family rental that was built 50 years ago has a premium of $3,000 in some cases. I mean, that's a lot, but a close friend of mine recently went to GRE marketplace, got connected with one of our Florida providers. There, he bought a new construction duplex for I forget it was either 400k or 420k it's in Ocala, Florida, which is the central part of the state, and his 12 month insurance premium is $694. Wow. What a low premium for a duplex. That's why you go new build in Florida. Newer properties were built to today's construction and wind mitigation codes, and they have low insurance rates. And his duplex also appraised for 10k more than the purchase price. He has both sides already rented. And in fact, he closes on the property today, and yeah, I recommended that he go to GRE marketplace and get into Florida property, because that is indeed what he was interested in, and I sure wasn't going to stop him. So suffice to say, I clearly do not believe that Florida real estate is doomed. Florida has long been the antidote to high tax, high cost states, it has attracted snowbirds and retirees and hourly workers and increasingly younger professionals unable to crack housing markets elsewhere. Since the pandemic, millions of people have flocked to the state. I mean, when you look at a list of the fastest growing metro areas of the United States. I mean, Florida domination continues. You've still got big ones up there, like Lakeland of Florida is actually at the top of the population growth leaderboard nationally for metros with 500,000 or more people, Port St Lucie is also up there. It's third nationally, and Orlando is fourth. Three of the top four population growth metros are still in Florida, but this promise of sunshine and opportunity that has been replaced by something just a little less Sunny. I mean, you've got the rising home prices like Florida's not that cheap anymore, this diminishing affordability and this growing pressure on infrastructure, but Florida has definitely not completely lost its shine. People across the country are still moving to Florida, but not at the same rate that they did a few years ago, and the state is still seeing more people arrive then depart, besides the weather and the beaches that people love, of course, there's zero state income tax, and Governor Ron DeSantis has even proposed eliminating the property tax, like I mentioned to you on the show a while ago, although we can't count on eliminating the property tax anytime soon, if it ever happens. But wow, what a real estate boom that property tax elimination would create. So for the long term, which is what real estate investing is, I still like Florida. One thing that I don't like is trying to catch a falling knife, and that is analogous to say, investing in an area that is going down and has no future. Florida's got a future. It's got some challenges, just like anywhere in the US, but the reason it has a future is because more population growth is almost a guarantee. You don't get many guarantees in investing. Just look at the decennial census figures. Okay, this is the population of Florida every 10 years, starting in the year 1900 that's when they had 528,000 people, yeah, only about a half million people in the entire state, and I'll do some rounding here every 10 years after that. So in 1910 it was up to 750,000 people, then a million, 1,000,005 1,000,009 now we're up to 1950 where it grew to 2.8 million people, and then 5,000,006 point 8,000,009.7, 1316, 18.8 and then 21 and a half million in 2020, and it's 23 and a half million today. Now I only went as far back as 1900 there, but their census data goes back to at least 1830 and the growth has always been torrid, just uninterrupted. Every 10 years. There has been substantial to massive growth for at least 200 years, and Florida has still. Grown more than 2% per year each of the past couple years. In fact, it is still first place of all 50 states for population growth. So areas that are over supplied with housing in Florida are going to be absorbed. So Florida real estate is definitely not doomed. And in fact, adding more Florida real estate at this time, you know, that could very well be the type of thing where 10 years from now, or even five years from now, when their population is substantially bigger and there's less housing available. I mean, it could potentially look like a wise buy that you're able to get property at this time with less competition and maybe even a small discount here in the mid 2020s, and today, you can find three Florida markets listed at GRE marketplace. What else is happening at GRE marketplace? We've added two new markets, and they are also in the South. They are Jackson, Mississippi and Montgomery, Alabama. Yes, these areas are investor advantaged, and they have prices lower than most Florida markets. Though, I don't know that you'll see the net migration inflows into Jackson and Montgomery that you will in a lot of Florida markets. Jackson has a metro population of 600,000 and Montgomery 400,000 they both have really low property taxes. And there's something else that these two new GRE marketplace cities have in common. Any guess both Jackson and Montgomery are state capitals, yes, so they do have a base of government jobs. So check out gremarketplace.com read more about those cities. And of course, we even connect you with free investment coaching there to help you get matched up with some good property. Thanks for listening. Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

 

Speaker 2  37:10  

 Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC exclusively.

 

Keith Weinhold  37:34  

You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers, it's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters. And I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter. You also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text GRE to 66866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text, GRE to 66866.

 

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Complete episode transcript:

 

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai 

 

Keith Weinhold  0:01  

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, real estate pays five ways updated for today's times, even with conservative assumptions, watch your total return from real estate climb to great heights today. You'll understand what billionaire real estate investors don't understand a new free audio course today on get rich education. 

 

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show, guess who keep top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com

 

Speaker 1  1:12  

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

 

Keith Weinhold  1:28  

Welcome to GRE from Belgrade, Serbia to Bellingham, Washington and across 180 nations worldwide. I'm Keith weinholder. You are back inside get rich education. Today you're going to understand real estate investing really well, probably better than anyone that you know, in less than an hour. Now, before I begin investing in real estate, I seriously wondered how in the world it could possibly be a lucrative investment vehicle. I mean, like, how would that even work? Because you've got this physical structure where elements wear down the outside, tenants wear down the inside, and the whole thing only appreciates it about 5% a year. Yawn. That is really boring. Well, later I would start to put the pieces together. And actually didn't really understand leverage in cash flow until after I had bought my first rental property, I became the person, however, to coin the real estate pays five ways concept, and I discussed that years ago on the show here, and now I have updated it for today's times. So the principles remain the same, but the numbers are different. That's because today, cash flows are lower and interest rates are higher than they were five and 10 years ago. So let's see what total rate of return we come up with today, and just how we get there. And on the way, you'll see even more evidence of why compound interest does not build wealth, and getting your money to work for you doesn't build wealth either. And to say that is total heresy. In a lot of financial circles, you'll clearly see how real estate has really made more ordinary people wealthy than anything else. This is course level instruction, and you're getting it all free right here today as part of one of our weekly episodes. This will help you retire earlier than you ever imagined, or just find the time for yourself to become the best version of yourself. Now, for long time, listeners, I've got to tell you first, much of today is going to sound like a review, but I've got a really surprising twist at the end here, in the fifth of five ways that you're paid, I also have a free gift to give to you and to all listeners today. And this is not in any way, replay of old material. It's not AI generated. It never is. It is me talking to you updated for today's times. And this is we're about to get started. This is just with simple buy in hold real estate. So you don't even have to be a house flipper or a wholesaler or a landlord, and you can just use normal 30 year mortgage loans. And as we see, it doesn't even take a ton of money. These are fundamental wealth building attributes that lay people don't understand and will change your life. I mean, more than 95% of real estate investors don't even understand what I'm about to share. We're going to calculate your rate of return from each of the five ways we'll calculate, then your cumulative return on investment until it builds up and culminates. In your total return at the end today, and I'll tell you anything less than a 20 to 25% total return in this buy and hold real estate is actually disappointing, and you don't even need to take on inordinate risk. But you'll see the exact percentage that we get up to today, and how it gets even higher than 20 to 25% I mean, this is how real estate creates Young Money and old money and Fast Money and slow money, and gives you access to other people's money. Ethically, all of that, we have some new listeners dropping by today. So if you're new here, I'm Keith Weinhold, get rich education founder, Forbes real estate council member, best selling author, and long time real estate investor, also an incomprehensibly slack jawed and snaggletooth to podcaster. But see here in the audio only, you only have to hear the slack jaw, but video platforms where you'll find me and this course on YouTube and rumble, oh, through a disaster, because you both hear my slack jaw and have to see my snaggletooth. It's dreadful. 

 

Getting back to the course here, you know, school did little to teach you and I about the most important things in life, like nutrition or relationships or money. And you know what drives most divorces? Can you guess what it is? I mean, it's not arguments over trigonometri or English grammar or the periodic table of the elements. No, it's money problems. Well, the financial education in this course, it's gonna help you solve that as much as anything you need to take on the mindset of how you must unlearn what you've learned before you can believe something else. 

 

We're gonna use this same simple example of a $200,000 income property throughout the course a rental, single family home. Yes, you can still find many of these, and it's with a rent paying tenant. Now, if you want to think bigger than a 200k property, no problem. Say you want a $20 million apartment building, you can just multiply everything by 100 because we're talking about ratios today. Say that when you buy this property, your down payment and closing costs have you putting in 25% All right? So you've now got 50k invested on this 200k property. 

 

Well, in the first of five ways you're paid appreciation is what it's called. Well, historically, real estate appreciates at about 5% per year. All right, see your 200k Income Property appreciates to 210k There's your 5% yawn, boring. That might only be about the real rate of inflation. That's what most people think. But look at what you just did there already. You just did something amazing. You already benefited from a force greater than compound interest. You just created compound leverage, and most people don't even know it, because your return is far greater than the 5% total appreciation your return on investment is your gain, which is 10k divided by the amount that you have invested, which is 50k because that's all that you put into this. You just got a 20% return from only the first of five ways you're paid appreciation. And now, if you're scratching your head wondering how that just happened, how did 5% return go to 20% no worries, I will slow it down. And this course never gets more complicated than this, you achieved a 5% return on both your 50k invested and the 150k that you borrowed from the bank. See the return on the bank's money doesn't go to the bank, it goes to you all while the tenant pays the interest on the mortgage loan. We'll get to that part later for you, this could be your first moment of epiphany in this course, a light bulb moment. Yes, today you'll get more light bulb moments than Thomas Edison. That is the magic of leverage. It's so simple ethically use other people's money, but most people are only getting compound interest, a return on their money, only not theirs and others like they could have great so where does appreciation come from? What is its source? Supply versus demand for real estate an area's wage growth, population growth, a region's infrastructure improvements contribute to this. The shrinking availability of developable. Land and more. Now what if real estate prices go down? You're covered. That will be addressed shortly. Here we are just scratching the surface. You're starting to figure out why wealthy people's money either starts out in real estate or ends up in real estate. And the thing is, is you can do this the same simple way that I did when I began as a real estate investor. You don't need any degree or certification or real estate license in order to do this. Real Estate pays five ways. 

 

Now that you know about the first appreciation, leveraged appreciation in real estate's case will carry forward your 20% gain and add it onto the second of five ways you're paid, cash flow. For many, this is the most important one. One way for you to think about this second way cash flow is that it's the recurring income from your tenant that shows up, whether you had any involvement with the property that month or not. That's why this is passive income most months. This one is the most liquid of the five ways, because it pays you cash every month, and therefore you can immediately either reinvest it or just spend it and increase your standard of living. This is effectively your salary increase plan. Yes, it's the opposite of a 401 k, which is a salary reduction plan, which actually was an early name of 401 K plans, since this income is sourced by your tenant rent payment, minus the property expenses. Your Cash Flow is sourced by jobs, because that's how your tenant gets their rent payment that they pay you, and this is why I like larger metro areas, your market selection is more important than your property. That's a huge lesson right there, because it's about the durability of this cash flow. All right, we're about to run the numbers and see what your rate of return from passive cash flow is. Let's do it. We'll build on our example of your ownership of a 200k income property with your 50k down payment. All right, on the 200k rental single family home, say that your rent is $1,500 a month. That is therefore $18,000 of annual rent income. But then you need to deduct out your expenses, and you do have a lot of them. They are your mortgage and your operating expenses, like I've shared with you before. The easy way to remember those operating expenses is with the acronym VIMTUM, vacancy, insurance, maintenance, taxes, utilities and management, and paying that manager is what keeps this mostly passive for you. So to be clear, your rent income minus your mortgage in VIMTUM operating expenses equals your cash flow. You can kind of think of that as your rent overflow. Okay, here we go. Say you figure that from your 18k of annual rent income that you need to pay out 15k worth of annual expenses, that leaves you with $3,000 of cash flow, or so you thought, but you have a freak plumbing problem that creates a bill of 1000 bucks. However, you have property insurance, but say your insurance deductible is $1,000 so you've just got to come and pay out of pocket for your managers, plumber to fix it, and now the $3,000 of annual cash flow you thought you'd have only leaves you with $2,000 somewhat of a thin cash flow. Then that's a higher maintenance expense than you had previously forecast in your pretty looking pro forma projection. That often goes wrong, because something stupid often happens out of the blue in real estate investing, all right, well, with your $2,000 of cash flow, which is passive income, that's divided by your same 50k invested that gives you a return of 4% from the second of five ways you're paid. That number is what's known is the cash on cash return. You thought it would be 6% but we're being conservative. The Freak plumbing problem made it just 4% add this to the 20% from leverage depreciation in the first video, and you now have an accumulated 24% total rate of return from this income property already, and we still got three ways to go. We're just gonna keep piling onto this return in the next three ways you're paid. How high is this going to go? And you know what's interesting with this? Luke. Conservative math adding up your lofty return. It's actually conservative as we proceed, you'll note that I'm using simplification and rounding you're going to see me round down more than round up. To keep this conservative and real estate math is simple. It's just add, subtract, multiply or divide. There's nothing complex, no trigonometri or calculus or exponents. This is easy. You just have to know what numbers to use, and that's what you're learning and reinforcing today. 

 

Now here's a weird scenario. Imagine if you had a stranger out there funding a bank account for you, making monthly contributions into this illiquid savings account. I mean, does that sound too good to be true? Nope. It exists. The third of five ways that real estate pays is exactly why this is real, as this free audio course, real estate pays five ways continues for you. Real estate has so many ROIs returns on investment that one of the five is called an Roa. That's the third way you're paid. And none of this material is new or esoteric or avant garde. It's always been out there. There's just been no one else that's put it together before this, most people were never taught how to build real estate wealth in the real world. And what's insane about this third of five ways you're paid is that now you're probably already getting paid more ways than you ever have. I mean, instead, what is most people's investing experience, it's in stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs, gold or Bitcoin. I mean, that's where you're typically only paid one way, capital appreciation, if you even get that, and maybe a second way is if you have a dividend paying stock. But I mean, that's all you've got. One way, maybe two. If you want to build wealth, you've got to give your money multiple jobs. That's exactly what we're doing here. ROA stands for your return on amortization this third way you're paid is the monthly principal pay down portion of your mortgage. That's your return. So we're going to add your ROA to the 24% total return that we've accumulated so far. And now you might think you already have experience with an ROA if you have a mortgage on your own home, your primary residence, but no, not actually, because in your own home each month, a portion of your mortgage payment goes toward principal pay down and the rest of pay interest, but all you did in your primary residence is you went and you had to work to earn money all month. All you did at the end of that month was move that money from your cash pocket over to your equity pocket when that mortgage payment gets made. So that's merely a transfer of funds, but with income property, your tenant earned that cash that month to pay your mortgage principal payment, and we'll tally that up in a moment. On top of the principal, they pay your entire interest payment, plus your tenant pays you a little on top of that each month called cash flow, which was the second way you're paid. So yes, your tenant is going to work for you. If your tenants rent payment is a third of their income, they're working close to 10 days a month just for you, just to pay your rent. I mean, that is amazing. If you add properties with rent paying tenants like this. It's sort of like you have all these employees out there working for you, and yet you don't have to manage them at work. It is amazing this third of five ways focuses on that return on amortization, and the etymology of the word amortize that comes from the old French meaning death. And that makes sense, your tenant is slowly killing off your mortgage balance for you over time. So let's do this. Let's add up your ROA, all right, we're using this same example where you got a 150k loan on your 200k rental, single family home. Let's say that you got a 7% interest rate on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage, so just the plain everyday loan. Just look up any amortization calculator, enter those numbers in there, and you'll see that in year one, your tenant pays down over $1,500 of your income properties mortgage balance for you, let's round it down to just 1500 bucks, because it could have been some vacancy in there as well. Your ROA is simply this year, one principal pay down divided by your amount invested again, that is 1500 bucks divided by your 50k Of down payment and closing costs that you have in the property your skin in the game. And this is another 3% return for you. That's your Roa. I mean, you are beginning to really build wealth now. This is somewhat of a hidden wealth generator that a lot of investors never consider. Many of them are aware of this, though, it's like your tenant is funding an ill, liquid savings account that has your name on it. We'll add this 3% ROA to the tally of a 24% cumulative return that we figured from the first two ways. Yes, you are now up to a 27% total rate of return from appreciation, cash flow, your ROA, and we still have two of the five ways to discuss. We're just gonna keep piling onto your return. What is the source of your Roa? This 3% it is jobs again, your tenants income. If interest rates fall and you refinance, you'll get an even higher annual chunk of tenant made principal pay down, even with the initial loan kept in place this 7% mortgage note, how in future years, your amount of 10 it made principal pay down. Only keeps increasing over time. But we're only talking about year one in this whole example. We're going to carry forward your 27% total rate of return so far into the next one as this real estate pays five ways. Audio course will continue here in Episode 550 of the get rich education podcast, yeah, even the episode number has some fives in it as we roll on, breaking down just how the five ways build wealth more after the break, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, this is get rich education.

 

You know what's crazy? Your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time, in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back. No weird lockups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing, check it out. Text family to 66866, to learn about freedom family investments, liquidity fund again. Text family to 66866. Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Chaley Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com That's ridgelendinggroup.com.

 

Speaker 2  23:45  

This is Ridge lending group's president, Caeli Ridge listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and remember, don't quit your Daydream.

 

Keith Weinhold  24:10  

Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, as we continue with the real estate pays five ways audio course, before the break, we're rolling forward a 27% total ROI from the first three ways that you're simultaneously paid. Again, nothing complicated, just with a piece of buy and hold real estate that you purchase carefully. You don't have to do any renovations. You don't have to be a landlord. This is how you're going to build forever wealth, legacy wealth, if you don't come from money now, money can come from you. This can shake up your entire family tree. After today, you'll have a concrete plan. I don't come from wealth. I build it myself, and I'm laying out the architecture of how I did. Just that in a simple way for you, the fourth of five ways you're paid is that real estate investors are rewarded with a generous basket of tax benefits from the government because you are doing what the government wants. You're providing others with housing. Informed people know that if you spend money on certain things like solar panels for your home or education expenses, you get a tax break for spending that money. Well, with real estate, you don't even need to spend any money to get a tax break every single year. Incredibly, you get the tax deduction anyway. It's easy. Let's do it here. And you know, it's time to make something crystallized for you. And this can rock your world and even induce some disbelief. Some people say, don't get your money. Get your money to work for you. We've all heard that. Here is the heterodox. Here is the paradigm shift. If you want to build wealth, don't get your money to work for you. Outside of this show, I bet you have never heard that iconoclastic stance your best and highest use as an investor is not to get your money to work for you. It's making other people's money work for you. OPM, now, you probably heard that before as well, but I've got a twist on that. But see if you want to build wealth, do you think you'd have to both think and act differently than the masses? I mean, yes, you certainly do, but this is your differentiator, even multi decade billionaire real estate investors don't realize what I'm about to share with you forever. Wealth is built. Early Retirement, wealth is built. Your standard of living is indelibly elevated beyond what you ever thought possible because you are ethically using other people's money three ways at the same time, the bank's money for leverage in the loan, which we covered in the first way, you're paid the tenants money for cash flow and loan pay down, which we covered in videos two and three. And now here you are using the government's money for generous tax benefits at scale, which we're covering in this fourth of five ways you're using other people's money, three ways at the same time within this, this is why you're building wealth. And of course, this does not mean you're exploiting people by using their money, just the opposite. You're doing good in the world. Provide people with housing that's clean, safe, affordable and functional. Do that, and you'll be profitable in the long term and never get called a slum lord. Rental property income is generally taxed at ordinary income tax rates, but you don't have to pay tax on all of your rental income. The tax deductions are generous from rental property, you can deduct out your mortgage interest and your operating expenses, which I will not cover in our example. You also get a depreciation deduction. We'll look at that one closely, and when you sell, you can endlessly defer your capital gains tax so you never have to pay it all of your life, all right. Well, what does this really mean? If you buy a rental property for 200k and after a bunch of years you sell it for 500k your capital gain was 300k in most investments, you need to pay capital gains tax of at least 15% on this you would take a $45,000 tax hit. But with real estate, when you sell if you generally replace it with a property of equal or greater value, your capital gains tax is zero, absolutely zero. Now, rental property taxes are somewhat complicated, and I am not a CPA, I'm giving general guidance. I'm not going to get into things like your adjusted basis and other details. In fact, I'm not even going to consider this benefit of deferred capital gains tax in tallying up your rate of return. So instead, let's only look at your return from the tax depreciation portion of your full basket of tax benefits. It's going to keep things simple, and it'll also keep our example more conservative. Yes, even though your 200k rental property in our example tends to appreciate in value, the government says you can get a tax break because they say that the property wears out over 27 and a half years. That's just what the IRS guideline is. This only applies to rental property. There's no depreciation deduction on a primary residence. Let's do it on your 200k property, you can only depreciate the structures value called the improvement, not the land portion. We'll say that your structure or house's value is 150k and the land is 50k even the IRS knows that land doesn't wear out, only the structure. Divide your 150k structure value by 27.5 Yep. Pretty weird, arbitrary number, but that's how long the IRS says it takes to wear out. That gives you $5,454 that's how much you can depreciate or shelter from taxes if you're in the 24% tax bracket, that's $1,309 in tax savings for you. Divide that by how much you have invested in this 200k property. Again, that was 50k when you made the down payment and closing costs. This is a 2.6% return. Let's keep being conservative and round that down to 2% there it is our number from the fourth of five ways you're paid. We are layering on another 2% return. Now, can you really call a tax break part of your return? Is that fair? Should that be considered? Yes, it is, in this case of tax depreciation, because you did not even have to incur an expense in order to get that deduction, that's why some people call it the magic of depreciation. Usually, to get a tax break, like I was saying earlier, you have to make an out of pocket expense, like pay for fees to attend a conference or buy solar panels or pay automobile expenses. But you don't have to do that here, so the 2% rate of return for your tax benefit is even more conservative when you realize that we also are not digging into how this piece of real estate can also make you eligible for other tax benefits like a qualified business income deduction, a cost segregation and bonus depreciation. And for simplicity, we're not going to go run examples on different marginal tax brackets, and there are income thresholds and other thresholds, whether you're married or single. And of course, we are excluding that erstwhile capital gains tax that you can legally duck out of to collect all the tax benefits without me having to get deeply involved. At the end of each year, my property manager just sends my property's financials directly to my bookkeeper. And yes, I know we've got some CPAs listening to this right now thinking that 2% that is much too low of a return from your basket of tax benefits, but that is all we're going to use. We're going to add this to the ROIs that we accumulated from leverage appreciation at 20% in the first way, cash flow at 4% in the second way, and an ROA of 3% in the third way, plus this 2% from tax benefits here in the fourth way, here we are up to a 29% first year total ROI from your 200k single family income property that you so wisely purchased. Now you know how to use other people's money three ways at the same time again, the banks, the tenants, and with these tax breaks the governments. 

 

Let's move on to the fifth of five ways. Add up your total rate of return, and then I'll give you some more important takeaways to give this context, and I'm going to give you your free gift. Your fifth way is your second biggest profit center, and most real estate investors don't even know that it exists, you're going to profit from something that actually makes most people poorer. So we're going to take our 29% add the fifth way to it, and it's going to culminate in your total number. The fifth way is called inflation profiting. Remember, it's not inflation hedging. Real Estate bought the right way is not an inflation hedge. Hedging is defensive, meaning that you break even from inflation, but no instead, you're actually profiting from inflation. That's different. This is offensive. Now a conventional financial advisor. You know, they're often out there selling investment products that tout something like a 10% rate of return. You know, synonymous with a return from the s, p5, 100. Ask your financial advisor about the five drags on that return. It's 10% minus inflation, emotion, taxes, fees and volatility, and your adjusted return is often less than zero. Just look at their track record. Stocks and mutual funds don't make anyone wealthy. They might just preserve wealth if you already have it strategically bought. Real estate has hegemony over all the other. Set classes precisely because it pays five ways. Either you can be a conformer or you can build wealth. If you want to escape financial mediocrity, you can't run with the herd. You need to get into a lot of good debt. It sounds scary until you realize that debt is tied to a carefully selected income property, meaning your entire debt payments are therefore reliably outsourced to tenants. DEBT, TAXES and inflation are three forces that make most people poorer. It makes most people poorer because they either don't have the resources, or they don't have the know how to arrange their financial life. They don't have any strategy. Well, today, you're learning how to make these three forces, DEBT, TAXES, inflation, those three wealthier with the Debase purchasing power of the dollar. You know most people, they see the price of a new car that goes from 50k to 60k or that their favorite Subway sandwich goes from nine bucks to 10 bucks, and then they just kind of hope that their salary keeps up. You know, that's sort of the average experience with inflation. Now, you and I, we would not save by stashing a million bucks under the mattress, because 3% inflation would de base its purchasing power by 30k every single year. That's why we do the opposite of saving. We borrow. For every million you borrow, we'll every year say that with inflation, your wage, salary, rent, income, all go higher by 3% now it gets easier to pay back your million dollar loan all while the tenant pays the interest, and you're profiting 30k each year. So after one year, you only owe the bank back 970k and inflation adjusted dollars and 940k after year two, and 910k after year three, inflation debases savings and debt at the same rate, so borrow instead of Save and see, this is the reason why the top selling financial author of all time, Robert Kiyosaki, a frequent guest on our show here, he says, savers are losers, debtors are winners. In an inflationary world, don't be a saver. Be a savvy debtor, because in the future, you can count on more inflation. See, the government needs inflation to occur. The easiest way for the US to repay its 10s of trillions of dollars in debt is to just keep printing lots of dollars, and that process debases every dollar that you're currently holding on to. Who cares about your debt when both tenants and inflation are just relentlessly paying it down for you? That is if you're doing real estate right, which means buying an income producing property with a loan. That's the whole formula here. That's all we're doing, buying a rental property with a loan. But when you understand how inflation both pumps up your real estate value and simultaneously debases your debt, it turns your world upside down, you almost become this inflation cheerleader, because inflation is now good for you, as this audio course is now covering the fifth of five ways you're paid. Please understand some risk still exists. You could buy in the wrong market, hire the wrong property manager, or just buy the wrong property no matter what, you're going to have some inevitable problems along the way, like that plumbing problem I mentioned earlier in the second of five ways you're paid over leverage is a risk over leverage means that you take on so much debt that you can't make the monthly payments so you can still lose money. But from listening today, you vastly increase your chances of being profitable, and that's why we say that carefully bought real estate has the best risk adjusted return. Here we go, following through with our example across all five ways on your 200k income property that you made a 50k down payment on, that is therefore a $150,000 loan that you took out at a 3% inflation rate each year, your debt is then being debased by $4,500 this is a quiet, hidden wealth generator that most investors don't even know about. $4,500 of inflation profiting divided by your same 50k down payment means that you have another 9% rate of return. Wow, a 9% rate of return that you're getting that most investors don't even know about. I mean, in the conventional financial world, I mean, they're proud to offer you a nine. Percent mutual fund return over time, and they advertise that as something good here by putting a down payment on a rental property. This 9% is another sweetener that no one even notices, and that gets added on to everything else. It's just incredible. Yes, 9% now, in the past, I used to think this return was just the inflation rate that we're using here, 3% but see, this is leveraged as well a 9% return from inflation profiting. And like I mentioned, uh, towards the beginning of the show, this is the twist for a long time get rich education. Podcast listener, see 3% that would merely be a hedge. So add this 9% to the 29% running total in the first four ways, and there you have it, an astounding 38% total rate of return from the five ways that real estate pays 38% I mean, you are really understanding why wealthy people's money either starts out or ends up in real estate, and that you don't have to be wealthy to start everything we discussed there was in year one. I mean, if someone asks you why you're investing in real estate, you can just hold up five fingers and share this episode with them. I mean, this says it all, and we could have surely come up with a higher number than 38% if you had used a 20% down payment instead of 25 then you'd have more leverage, and your total ROI would be in the mid 40s percent, and we really handled the tax portion conservatively. Here another reason your return could be higher, this was with a 7% mortgage rate and a pretty modest 4% cash on cash return as well. Yes, your total ROI is 38% now after year one returns fall over time due to the accumulation of equity in your property, so the denominator for the calculation is larger. You got 38% in year one, perhaps year two is 31% and year three is 24% but you can really see how you're getting ahead of the world in three years like that in other episodes of the show. Here, I do talk about how to limit the return attrition through refinancing and some other techniques, but these are amazing rates of return, compounding evidence that compound leverage blows away compound interest, and again, it's DEBT, TAXES and inflation that are making you wealthy. How you should know by now the formula is really simple. Just buy an income producing property with an everyday 30 year loan, even if real estate values fall, you can get paid for other ways and still have a positive return. Real estate values have always bounced back even after 2008 and see if the property is temporarily suppressed in value, you're going to have little concern with wanting to sell it when tenants are still paying you a monthly income during that time. Very few veteran real estate investors understand the five ways. Most real estate educators don't understand this either, but now you do, and to get this 38% total ROI again at times I simplified throughout I mean, your real world return is likely going to be different. It's going to be higher or lower than 38% probably. But now you know about a vehicle for actually creating durable wealth, and I would like to think that what you learned today is the most complete yet still concise way of understanding how a real estate investor gets paid. You gotta know this. This is the motivation for wanting to do this in the first place. 

 

And hey, if you like what I've shared so far, I'd love to ask you for something, and then I have more important things to tell you and give you your free gift. As I made this course free. Hey, if you would please just share the wealth. Share this episode with a friend. I'm sure you know somebody that would benefit from this. It's really a big aha moment when you finally know how it all goes together. If you subscribe to our newsletter, you were already sent the video version of this course here in just the past couple weeks that's going to help you see how all the numbers go together. And the video course was also released free on YouTube, so if you're listening to this within a few weeks or months of the episodes release, it's still easy to find on our get rich education YouTube channel and four. Finally, in order to make this actionable and actually profit from what you learned, you can just copy me and buy properties from where I buy them at GRE marketplace, that's where there are properties conducive to the five ways you're paid. It probably does take about a minimum, oh, of a 35k to 55k down payment in order to get started. Properties are either new build or renovated. Tenants are in place. There's a property management solution, if you like, and optionally, our free investment coaching service there learns your goals, then helps match you with the right areas and properties and hey, I'm happy to tell you and announce that you can now connect directly with our completely free investment coaching service at GREinvestment coach.com, yes, this is a new URL to make it easier for you to connect with a GRE investment coach. Yeah, I kind of thought that was a good one, huh? How do you connect with a free GRE investment coach? Well, at GREinvestment coach.com I've got a free gift for you. Everything that we discussed in this course today was distilled down into one colorful infographic that we designed and laid out here so you can view it, download it, or even print it out on one eight and a half by 11 inch sheet of paper. Yeah, my team and I went back and forth on this infographic for quite a few rounds to make it just right. I like how it looks, and I've never known anyone else to do this all the ways real estate pays concisely onto one sheet of paper. The link for that infographic gift is in the show notes for this episode at get rich education.com/ 550 since this is episode 550 get it at getrice education.com/ 550 Yeah, the infographic gift is a memento of this course and the time that we spent together today. Think of it as your diploma, and it's a diploma that doesn't come with 12 years of student loan payments either. Yes, it is just a piece of paper, but is it worth more than the piece of paper known as your bachelor's degree or your MBA? I don't know. You can be the judge. So congrats, graduate. Now you know how real estate makes ordinary people wealthy, but learning this today really doesn't benefit you if you don't find the right property in the right market with a property manager. If you so choose a property manager, you've got to take action. You usually want to start small, including with investor advantage, single family rentals for as little as 200k just like our example, some cost even less. We will help you do just that, and do it for free with our coaching book a time and get it on the calendar at GREinvestmentcoach.com that's GREinvestmentcoach.com 

 

I'm get rich education's Keith Weinhold, thanks for being here, but you weren't here for me. You were here for you. I'll see you next week. Don't quit your daydream.

 

Speaker 3  48:25  

nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC exclusively.

 

Keith Weinhold  48:49  

You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers, it's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours, my self, it's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point, because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream. Letter, it wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text GRE to 66866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text GRE to 66866.

 

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get rich, education.com.

 

Keith introduces the three types of freedom: time freedom, money freedom, and location freedom, and how real estate investing can provide all three. He is joined by special guest, Loral Langemeier, a global wealth expert, who shares her journey from a $25,000 investment to becoming a millionaire through real estate and mentorship. 

• Debt is Not Negative: Loral emphasized that debt is simply the cost of money and can be a positive tool when used responsibly.

• Tax Strategies for Wealth Building: She introduced the "tax trifecta" - understanding how you make money, how to activate tax code deductions, and how to invest in alternatives like real estate to reduce taxes. 

• Active Engagement and Mentorship: Loral stressed the importance of actively engaging in your wealth-building journey, getting the right mentors, and continuously learning. She believes the difference between those who succeed and those who struggle is their level of active participation and willingness to learn from experts.

Resources:

Ask questions and make requests at AskLoral.com to receive free tickets, ebooks, and other resources.

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Complete episode transcript:

 

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai 

 

Keith Weinhold  0:01  

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, it's the first time that we have a certain legacy finance personality on the show. We're talking about how you can cultivate your own personal wealth mindset, how to creatively add value to your real estate and how to put your kids to work for big tax deductions and more. Today on get rich education. 

 

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, who delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show, guess who? Top Selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com

 

Corey Coates  1:12  

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

 

Keith Weinhold  1:28  

Welcome to GRE from the second state of Pennsylvania to the second to last State of Alaska and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith weinholding. You are back for another wealth building week. This is get rich education, and coincidentally, they are the two states where I've lived my life. Every single one of us has a gap in our lives. There is a gap between who you are and who you could be. And today, my guest and I will talk about this some more. Look, there are people who should already be financially free, but they're not. Their residual income could exceed their expenses by now, yet they aren't financially free. It's not because they're lazy, it's not because they're stupid, it's because they're stuck in one of these three traps. Number one, they're working harder instead of smarter. Number two, they're playing small instead of playing to win, which is like paying off low interest rate debt instead of keeping their own money, like I discussed last week, or thirdly, investing in all the wrong things, or not investing at all. And the worst part is that these people don't even realize that they're doing it. Most people aren't even cognizant. They don't have any awareness of the gap. You're not going to make progress on closing a gap that you don't know exists, you've got no chance of hitting a bull's eye when you're aiming at the wrong target. And I think it helps to develop a structure in your life where you have to tell yourself, I better do a good job here, or else. Yeah, it's the or else part that's a motivator. Now, some people won't extrapolate that mantra beyond the workplace. The number one thing that keeps employees showing up at work is fear. They tell themselves, I better show up at work on time, or else, I better do a good job on this project, or else I better give a great sales presentation. Or else. Now that's all well and fine, but to close the gap between who you are and who you could be, tell yourself something on a higher level, like I had better get some residual income outside of work, or else I'm going to stay stuck in a soulless job forever, and I'll never get that time back. So you've got to set up the right for else consequence for yourself. And then, yeah, of course, there are smaller ones like, I better avoid eating kettle chips, or else I'll gain weight. Let's be mindful that there are three types of freedom. You've got three types time freedom, money freedom and location freedom. Real Estate Investing gives you all three. You can make an unlimited income. There's the money freedom part. You can remotely manage your property managers from anywhere. There's your location. Freedom. And since you're not directly responding to your tenant, your property manager is, well, there's your time, freedom, you've got a buffer from emergencies, once you get this dialed in, and it does take a few years, oh, now you've got the time freedom, the money freedom and the location freedom. What do you want to avoid only making a big income? It was recently reported that Wall Street bonuses were way up this past year. Okay, yeah, but how happy are those finance worker Manhattanites who wear an iron pressed button down shirt and a Patagonia vest for 14 hours a day. That's not time freedom for sure, and it isn't location freedom either, unless it's 100% work from anywhere. You know, in my life, I recently got a great reminder of this. It really hit me. I have this close friend. He was the valedictorian of our high school class. I think I brought him up before. He's still a tight friend. I mean, sometimes we go on vacations together. Well, we have a high school class reunion back in Pennsylvania this summer, and among him and our other like, closest group of friends, my tightest guys, I'm always encouraging everyone to, hey, spend at least a week together, because we can't all get together like this that often, and because I have the time freedom to kind of suggest that and even push for that. Well, my valedictorian friend, he is a surgeon in St Louis, and among this tightest knit group of friends, he's the only one that cannot get the week off so that we can all hang out together more after the reunion. Instead, he can only get three or four days. He's got to get back to work as a surgeon in St Louis. Now, I'm sure he's compensated really well, and he doesn't live a bad life, but as a surgeon, you know, it's just become blatantly obvious that he doesn't have either the time freedom or the location freedom. Yet I do as a remote real estate investor, even though it's not something that I studied in college, but my valedictorian surgeon friend, you know, he had a long educational path, you know, undergrad and med school and residency and a ton of training and all these years tied up in his medical education. Therefore, you know, sometimes when people do that, they feel obligated, like that's what they should do, that's what they have to do, because he's already put so much into it. But he only has one of the three types of freedom. And no matter what you went to school for, if you find out about something better, like a great business idea or remote real estate investing, you've got to consider pivoting into that and go into that if it makes sense for you, the world changes. It keeps getting faster, and you've got to change with it. So obtaining financial freedom through real estate helps you deal with an external locus of control issue where life is constantly happening to you, rather than something you can influence. When you're an employee, life happens to you more often than when you're the one pushing the buttons, when you control the three freedoms now, you are narrowing that gap between who you are and who you could be. 

 

I didn't mention it previously. Two weeks ago, I brought you the show from Las Vegas, Nevada, last week, from just outside Colorado Springs. And today I'm here in Anchorage, Alaska, where I'll be for a few weeks before heading to London, England, and then from there, on to Scotland. I plan to visit the former home of the father of economics when I'm in Edinburgh, Scotland, of course, that is Adam Smith, the author of The Wealth of Nations. I might tell you more about that at that time. 

 

Before we bring in our guest this week, a quarter recently ended.  Here is our asset class rundown. The NAR reported that the median sale price of an existing home rose 3.8% year over year in February, marking the 20th straight month that sale prices increased year over year. Mortgage rates fell from 6.9% to 6.6 per Freddie Mac this is all year to date. Q1, the S, p5, 100 was down four and a half percent. The NASDAQ down 10 and a half percent. That's officially correction territory, as those tariff years dominated. The quarter interest rates of all kinds are a little lower yield on the 10 year, Tino falling from 4.6 to 4.2 despite inflation concerns, inflation hovering just under 3% for most of the quarter, Bitcoin down 12% oil is still super cheap, beginning the quarter where it ended near 70 bucks. Gold has been the star performer this year. Are up 17% just in the quarter, and for the first time in history, has searched the over $3,000 an ounce, its best quarter since 1986 in fact, this century, gold has now outperformed the S, p5 100 by two and a half times. Just incredible. There's our asset class rundown. Let's speak with this week's guest.

 

This week's guest has been a long time, prominent, well known name, perhaps even a household name. She is a global wealth expert, six time New York Times, best selling author, and today, she runs integrated wealth systems and other alternative asset platforms since 1996 she's been involved in multiple areas of finance, mentoring, real estate investment, business development and gas and oil. And much like me, she teaches people her strategies on how to make money, invest money and keep money, but together, you and I can look forward to getting her spin today, and you've seen her seemingly everywhere over time, in the USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, the view Dr Phil in every major legacy network channel, many times she is on a mission to change The conversation about money. She was known as the millionaire maker from back when a million was actually a lot of money. Welcome to GRE Loral Langemeier.

 

Loral Langemeier  11:31  

hey, thank you. It's great to be here. Look forward to talking with your audience,

 

Keith Weinhold  11:35  

 Laurel, though we're a real estate investing show and audience here, I think that you and I would agree that wealth building starts in the mind that most valuable six inches of real estate between our ears. What's your take on cultivating a wealthy mindset?

 

Loral Langemeier  11:50  

You got to hang out with millionaires. I said the fastest way to become a millionaire is hang out with them. Is for me. I knew that's what happened. 1996 Bob Proctor introduced me to Robert Kiyosaki, Sharon Lechter, I flew down, sat at her kitchen table. I walked out that day. I flew in as an exercise physiologist for Chevron, building fitness centers in their blue collar like offshore oil rigs, refineries like the sexiest places in the world, Kazakhstan and goal Africa. I went in as an exercise physiologist. I went out the next day as a master distributor with a cash flow game. And I jumped, I quit my job and said, I'm going to go follow this Japanese kind of game around. And I was teased and teased and teased. Keith because, I mean, Rich Dad, Poor Dad didn't really hit until 1998 so sort of this risky proposition. But like with anything you say yes, you figure it out. And I knew people asked me over the time. They said, What would have happened if Rich Dad, Poor Dad didn't hit, if it didn't become as big? I said, we just opened up another door that's such a message for people, their need to see the path of how to do everything before they move is honestly one of their biggest saboteurs. So for mindset, I think mindset also goes with knowledge, because I just know, having taught this, you know, just this whole millionaire hold like a millionaire maker book. And for all your listeners, I can give them a ebook copy of the millionaire maker. So love to give that out to everybody for free. However. You want to do that in the show notes, but becoming a millionaire is the same thing as take like you said, you got to learn to make money. As an entrepreneur, even if you have a job, you've got to learn to make money. You've got to learn to keep it through better tax planning, and you have to invest in alternatives, which is why real estate was my first millionaire status. And I've been a millionaire now in nine industries. So that's kind of exciting new hit nine industries this last year. So done in a lot of different categories. Real Estate was my first in 1999 and during that period, if it wasn't hanging out with Robert Sharon, Keith Cunningham, like Bob Proctor. I mean the guys. I mean when you're living around millionaires, the fastest way to not only get your mindset, but then your behavior and your knowledge levels just skyrockets because you're around I mean people who live it, and they're living it every day. I think those who sit on the bleacher seats, I call it Keith, where they're just watching, reading, but never getting in the game. They're the ones who like they're sitting in the oyster seats, right? They're just watching. They're not actually get on the playing field.

 

Keith Weinhold  14:09  

Sure, it harkens back to the classic Jim Rohn quote, you are the average of the five people that you spend the most time with. Laurel when it comes to mindset, one thing I think about is that every single day, 8.2 billion humans wake up, and every single one of us has this gap between who we are and who we could be, yet most of us make zero progress on this ever present gap. So when it comes to wealth mindset and finances, what can we do? 

 

Loral Langemeier  14:38  

You gotta get a mentor and a coach. And I got a mentor and a coach when I was 17, what shifted me and really changed the whole trajectory of my life. I grew up at farm in farm girl in Nebraska, and at 17, I was going off to university, also going to play basketball. And so I went to one of those pre sports seminars, and Dennis Whateley was a speaker. And. And I ran to the front of the stage, and I got the book, Think and Grow Rich, and that I can tell you, a farm girl 17, going like, there's a whole other way to live. So instead of going to school to get a law degree, which is what I went into, which I still think I'd be a heck of a little debater and negotiator, but I do that enough in business now, I got a finance degree, and I just studied. And my first mentor at 17, I walked into a bank, and I remember asking the bank president, will you mentor me? Because rich people put their money here. I need to understand money, because I don't understand it. And I was never really raised in that conversation, which I would say, 99% of the planets that way. And I have taught and traveled this work since, you know, 1999 when I became a millionaire, Keith, I've put this work into six continents, all but Antarctica. So I know it works in principle. Everything we will talk about today works in every continent. The benefit is the United States has the most corporate structure, the best tax structure, the best tax strategist, stack strategies. So even my high net worth international clients end up, typically in Nevada, with a C Corp or some sort of asset company or trust, where then they can buy us real estate, US gas and oil and activate our tax code for them. So we do a lot of really high, high level international strategies. Just because I bent all over to do that, when very blessed to do that, it's interesting, because I think mentoring, you're not going to be taught this. And what drives me crazy when people say, and I'm sure you've heard this a million times on your podcast too, Keith, schools should teach this. No, they shouldn't. Parents, you need to teach it. You need to be more active in your household than your family. And instead of letting Tiktok raise your kids, you need to raise your kids. So I do a lot of work in this category, because my kids are now 18 and 25 raised them a single mom, but legacy work is critical, and that's why I have a game. I have a millionaire maker game. So from the cash flow game, I have a game, and I think the parents have got to put the conversation about money in the household, and they got to monitor like, what they say, you know, don't ever, ever say to a child. Don't ask for it, or, you know, or we can't afford it, because you can afford anything you want if you learn to make money. And I think Keith is part of this. I know we're in a real estate show, but you know, how many people want to be real estate millionaires and never make it? How many people want to do like you said, whatever, the life they're really meant to live? But again, I think they're in I don't think I know their environment, who they hang out with, who they spend time with, what they read there. Are they binging your podcasts and my YouTube channel, or are they binging Netflix and Hulu and watching John like how you feed your mind and what content, how many books you read? I don't care if they're ebooks audiobooks, but you've got to put new content in your brain all the time and be around the people making it happen.

 

Keith Weinhold  17:41  

Oh, that's great. Sure. To change yourself. You got to change your five, change your mentors, change your influencers, and, yeah, be that parent that teaches your children about money, and you don't have to teach that money is a scarce resource. I really just think that's one part of a mindset. That's where most people's mind goes when they think about money. They think about it as a scarce resource for one thing, and it's pretty counterintuitive with the mindset. I mean, if you want to be in the top of 1% you're probably going to be misunderstood and even iconoclastic.

 

Loral Langemeier  18:13  

Yep, I would agree. And you know, another thing with mindset that I think is interesting is, and again, I'm gonna go back to knowledge, about consuming the right knowledge. And on my YouTube channel, which is, you know, Laura Langmuir, The Millionaire maker, it's family friendly. It's for five years old and up. We actually have a YouTube journal, Keith, that we did, where it says, What day did you watch the video? What did you learn? What will you do? And in 365, days, because I'm there every day, here is your this. And that's what I tell parents. I said, get yourself and get your kids a journal and at least one lesson from every recorded, you know, video. So I would say, give me five to 10 minutes a day just for a new piece of content. And the biggest one that is searched on my channel. I want to relate this to real estate is people's mindset and understanding with debt. They have such a negative, negative relationship to debt. And I want to start with this. Debt is the cost of money period. It is not negative. I think it's the most positive thing you could do. And as a real estate investor, arbitraging debt, meaning, if you can get debt for two, 3% or 0% I have over 500 sources, I can get 0% financing for 21,24 months, that's free money that's not hard money, that's not 13% 14,15, that's free. And I would go into a million dollars of 0% debt I have, and I will at the end if I can invest it and make 10,12, 20, 30% so people need to learn, debt is your friend. If you use it in a responsible, organized and educated way, it is absolutely your enemy if you're using it to buy lifestyle crap. So like, debt is such a weird thing. Keith and I don't care how long I've had clients, if they grew up with a lot of debt and a negative impact around money, they can be a millionaire and still have this weird relationship to death. Oh my god, debt, and it's literally. They tremor. It's like it's just money, and there's plenty of it. It's just the cost of it. Or is it being paid to you, or are you paying it out and arbitraging that that range could build. I mean, that alone, if you just learned that strategy and applied it on top of your real estate strategy, would triple, if not 10x your portfolio,

 

Keith Weinhold  20:19  

like we say around here at GRE financially free beats debt free. You understand the difference? So does our audience. A lot of people don't. In fact, trying to retire your debt and slow your progress toward being financially free. I love it. Yep, you know what's funny, Laurel, just like you're coming on this show today, sometimes I'm a guest on other shows, and the way I've started to have the host introduce me to say, Hey, if you want your show to get some attention, say that our guest today, me has millions of dollars in debt, and he has from a young age that attracts attention. They think it's a negative thing. They don't know that my debt is outsourced to tenants. They don't realize a net worth statement. That's only the debt side of the column. We haven't talked about the asset side of the column, so it's really just an example of being paradoxical and iconoclastic. There we move beyond the mindset Laurel. I know you have some really actionable things on how you can help people build wealth quickly. Tell us about that. 

 

Loral Langemeier  21:16  

So again, using debt is a massive piece of it. I'll just talk about some of the stories, like when I got into real estate in 1999 real estate in 1999 I lived in Marin, California, Sausalito, specifically right on the water. I shouldn't be on one side, right the San Francisco Bay. And got pregnant at 19 January, 8 was like, Oh, little sticks like, Oh, I'm gonna be my mom. And I knew I'd be a single mom. So I entered parenting as single mom, and I struck that, you know, another check for $25,000 seems to be the number for a real estate mentor that I've been kind of putting off. And I said, Oh, it's time. I said, so right now let's go. I have nine months. And he said, Why do we have nine months? I said, I'm really close to being millionaire, but I gotta hit millionaire status. And I need this much cash flow by my 34th birthday, which was June that year. I said, because in September, I'll be having a baby. And he went, what dropped the phone, and so he said, All right, so I wired him the money, and he said, meet me in Oklahoma City the next day. Yeah, well, there's a ticking clock. Yeah, there was my timeline nine months. But we went straight to the streets. And I think for the for me, I was privileged to be with a whole team, and I don't think I am a massive advocate. If you don't know what you're doing and you haven't done it, why take 100% risk in any industry that you've never played so I only got 15 20% of that run. But here's what I came with. In 1999 I knew how to build a database because Bob Proctor taught me that. So during the cash flow era, I bought my own inventory, took out debt, bought $500,000 of games, put them in my own warehouse so I could collect my own database. So from 96 to 99 I had acquired 18,000 people who had bought Rich Dad, Poor Dad books, cash flow, cash flow, 101202, all his the products, and I had my own financing. So I was doing my own product. I had my own stuff. And all this is a big backstory, because a lot of you in real estate don't have a database. And here's the value I brought to that team that earned me another almost 10, 15% of equity is I brought 18,000 people, and when they saw that, they're like, you could help us raise the money, I said, I don't know to raise money. And they said, we do so again, I bought my way into a team for 25,000 in a mentoring program. There's about 10 of us that met in Oklahoma City, went down to Norman, and within less than a month, we raised $16 million out of that database. They did. I didn't know how to do it again. I sat on the sideline, but highly mentored and guided. So I was on a winning team from the beginning. We bought so much real estate, and then we went into the remodel. And so right then it's like, well, let's own the construction company, so that way we could get better buys. We can buy for the whole street. We can buy for the whole apartment. So we bought we started construction companies. We started being the distributor of the windows and doors in Oklahoma. We did that in Kansas. Now we do flooring as part of the distribution. We've done stoves. I mean, you name it, if you're going to buy it, buy it from yourself, or some way that you get paid extra. And then, like I told you before we went on the show, I would have the property management company. So we would start that, which was then came along with the cleaning companies. Gotta have the cleaning companies, the cleaning crews, the hauling crews. You're gonna pay one 900 got junk, buy your own truck, lease your own truck, haul your own stuff, and then rent it out lease it to others. So when we say cash flow fast in real estate, I went all in. So I own 51% of every property management company, and I put a ad in the paper for an electrician or a plumber, because they were mine most of two expensive things. And so they became partners. And I just made a lot of stuff, quite frankly, but I made it up with a lot of mentoring and guidance, of which those guys are still great, great friends of mine. We still own a little bit of property together. We went to Mexico and did a whole run through Mexico. The team was the most vital part. And what I say to folks in real estate, if you want to go big is you better get a database. I just find key that so many people in real estate don't understand. The Association of having a database, and the way I describe it is, today I might not want to buy, but if you don't have my name, phone number and email, and you don't continue to market to me the day, I am ready to buy or sell, you're no longer on my radar because you're not keeping in touch with me. Your job is an agent, a broker, an investor, I mean, is to build this database of people who then will go along with you on a journey. And I can tell you, it was a very blessed to have done it that way, but that 18,000 is what helped me become a millionaire. Because I had the people. I didn't know what to do with them. I didn't know how to raise my I didn't know anything about a PPM. I knew nothing, but I learned it all, and I was under a very, very successful. You know, decades and decades of success team. So, you know, they were 20,30, years my senior, but boy, I learned. I really leaned into it. And I think people do buy into programs and mentoring communities, but they don't do the work. And I see it all the time, I don't know how many people, and I'm holding up my millionaire maker book, and then this latest one, which is how I made my kids millionaires on paper at 10, again, by using trust real estate. Put them in my real estate company, shareholders,

 

Keith Weinhold  26:05  

make your kids millionaires. Is the title of the book you just held on that second one.

 

Loral Langemeier  26:10  

That one's a 2022, that was my latest best seller, and how I did it with my kids. And again, this back to The Parenting. So I can go a lot of ways, Keith, but I think the do it fast is go wider. I think so many people just go into buying just the asset, and they don't like I'm in the cannabis space right now in Nevada, legal. I'm an illegal cannabis I have licenses and very similar, if you're going to go in and you say seed to sale, you own everything like so I mean, the guy who's running my farm, he owns the label makers. He owns the, I mean, if you name it, he owns the nutrient company, because you need nutrients for the plant you're going to own. You're going to own. So the more you own of what you do and you have to pay, the more you keep your cash flow. And again, I see that mistake with real estate people subbing all the work to so many people. It's like there's so much cash that just went out that could be at least a percent of that could have stayed home with you. Sure

 

Keith Weinhold  26:59  

100% there's an awful lot there. You're a big believer in vertical integration, in bringing in all these levels and stages of construction and management and so on, and bringing them in house. And yeah, it's interesting. You talk about the importance of the team. Here, we talk about how your team, whether that's your property manager, your mortgage loan officer, your 1031 exchange agent, how your team is actually even more important than the property itself. And yeah, when it comes to having a database these names Laurel, it's amazing, in a way, reassuring, in a high tech world with AI, that it still comes down to that primordial human connection of people and who you know you're the listener. As you've listened to Laurel, you could probably tell that she was a star student, which is why she's now a star teacher and mentor so much more when we come back with Laurel Langemeier, this is Get Rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold.

 

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Hal Elrod  29:43  

This is Hal Elrod author of The Miracle Morning and listen to get it rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.

 

Keith Weinhold  30:01  

Welcome back to get rich education. We have a well known name in the finance space. For decades, Laurel Langemeier with us. She has done an awful lot of real estate investing in her career, and as you can tell, she's got her own recipe, her own formula. She does things differently, she integrates. She brings things in house. Has multiple companies, and Laurel knows that you can be a profiteer when you serve the customer or the tenant, really, to the maximum amount. A lot of people have a gap there, and there's an opportunity cost. And Laurel, I know that one way you serve people is with Airbnbs in the Ozark region of Arkansas. Tell us about what you're doing there. That's really interesting.

 

Loral Langemeier  30:41  

So we bought pretty big houses, and a few of them we actually the one we were remodeling it, and that's when we really got to know the Ozarks. And there's a lot of tentacles. And so to get, like, from the properties we were buying to where you would rent a boat or a jet ski or get your watercraft, it was all the way around the lake. I mean, that's two lane roads, and it just took forever. And I thought, well, let's so we have another LLC that we bought some boats and jet skis. And again, when you get to know what do people really go to the Ozarks part that we call it the Redneck Riviera. They go to party. They go to party more than they need some bougie house to stay in. That's not what they really come they want to stay on the docks. So instead of putting a lot of money, we said, how can we force Do we have one property has 22 beds, so 22 people can sleep, but they just barely sleep there because they party. So we put more money in rehabs, into the dock, expanding the dock, big sound systems, a big bar, refrigerators, just made it super fun. And then when the tenants come, they don't just rent for the night. We also give them. We'll get your groceries and booze. We'll stock your bar down on the dock if you want. We'll pull up our boats and jet skis. So we had our own small fleet. Again, we just stacked on more service. So when the tenants arrived, a we got, you know, anywhere between depending on the boats and the jet skis and the tubes and all the ropes and everything they wanted, water skis. I mean, whatever they wanted to rent. Basically, we became like a rental company, and everybody freaked out, and they said, Oh my gosh, you're going to get killed in insurance. You're not. I mean, yeah, it's a lot more planning, and it's more work to get all that prepared. But that was anywhere between 500 to 1000 more a night in just the Airbnb. So again, why? If you're going to do one thing, do more for them, the more you serve a client, I don't care what area it is, yeah, the more you serve people, the more money you will make, because they're going to buy it, they're going to have to go get their booze on their own. They're going to have to go get groceries like that's a whole day of getting all that gear to their property versus, let us just save you a day on your holiday and let us do it all for you. There's so many creative ways that you could just serve people, and if you don't know what to do, ask them, What a novel concept. I do surveys all the time, like always doing polling and surveys. Hey, I'm a money expert. What do you want me to talk about? That's what right now, if you really look at a lot of my YouTube and a lot of my social media, people want reduced taxes. So like, I'm doing a heavy, heavy lift, because it was a survey that told me to do it, not just because Laurel decided to do it. And I think so many of you don't realize your audience will tell you what they want and how they want to be served. If you're listening, that's how you make money. And so many people as you know too Keith, that come as the entrepreneur saying, This is what I'm going to teach you. Well, nobody asked, nobody asked for that content. You wonder why it's not working. Is because you're pushing your agenda versus pulling and giving and serving their agenda?

 

Keith Weinhold  33:23  

Well, that is a great point. How do you know what people want? Two words ask them, which is exactly what you're doing there and the way that you're adding value and amenities onto a property there, like with what you're doing with Airbnbs in the Ozarks. It actually brings up a thought for another Jim Rohn quote. Jim Rohn said money is usually attracted, not pursued. Tenants are attracted to your rental units, new luxurious floors, and you'll soon profit when they compete over it.

 

Loral Langemeier  33:52  

Yeah, it's a lot of this stuff. It's not difficult. It's just different. And I use that saying all the time because people are like, Oh my gosh, it's so scary. He said, It's not scary. The only reason why people put fear and risk and that kind of negative energy and words, you know, language around, I think real estate or money or any of that, is the lack of knowledge. Because if they don't know, anything that you don't know is scary, like you and I talked before the show about aliaska. I mean, if you don't know how to ski and you try to go to aliaska, good luck. You would be scared out of your mind. But once you learn, it's exhilarating. And I find out with everything. So anything you approach and just notice the hesitation, is it because you need to learn it then lean in and find the best in class to teach you and like, shortcut your learning curve. You don't have to study for years and years and years and years. Becoming an entrepreneur is a decision right now, today, in two minutes, make a decision, and then get to work on what your offers are. You say, Well, what am I going to offer? People ask them, and they'll tell you what they're going to buy from you, because they're buying stuff all day long in this economy, they are buying and going to continue to buy.

 

Keith Weinhold  34:56  

If you yourself have a question for Laurel, you can always ask. Ask it at Ask loral.com L, O, R, A, L and Laurel, what are some of the more outstanding questions that you get over there, and how do you help them with some of the most important ones?

 

Loral Langemeier  35:12  

I'd say the number the biggest flood of content and questions right now is, how do we reduce taxes? I made up this term called the tax trifecta, because what affects your tax return is how you make your money. If you're just an employee, meaning a w2 like in America, that's what it's called. And Kiyosaki said it best in Rich Dad Poor about there's two tax systems. You're an employee, you're going to get tax pieces. You live on what's left. You're an entrepreneur, and you make money inside of a company. You activate 81,000 pages of tax code, and then you pay tax. So you decide how, where you want to pay tax. I call this living corporate life. So when how you make your money inside, what kind of a company? Right? And then activate the 81,000 pages of code for the deductions. Like I teach my people, they'll never go on a vacation. They're gonna have a business trip. And when you're in real estate, you can go anywhere in the world legally on a business trip, as long as you do what's required to actually make it a business trip by looking at real estate, and it's not that difficult. I mean, the reason I'm in a lot of different businesses is my kids have never been on a vacation. I don't take vacations because they're not deductible. I take business trips. So I teach families how to employ their kids. How to do all of that, like, how do you activate your kids? I mean, when my son was born in 1999 he was employed day one. He had Roth IRA By the second day of his life, and he was funded every day. And he's 25 now, just that one move made him a millionaire, just the one move of maximizing your Roth IRA strategically using it to invest in real estate. So I use a lot of participating notes. I did all sorts of different plays to grow their Roths tax free, tax deferred. So I'm super active about the whole family being in a real estate business. I think real estate is it's the first one I went after, and it's still the first one I tell lots of families. I mean, it's got to be in your portfolio. I still own a lot of commercial real estate, some residential, I said, in the Ozarks, but most of mine went commercial within the last especially COVID, I went all commercial for the most part, besides a few pieces of residential. Back to what do I that tax trifecta, how you make money, how you activate the tax code. And then the biggest one that nobody in financial planners will not tell you about it, your tax, your CPA, won't tell you about it. TurboTax is never going to tell you about it. It's how you invest in alternatives. So real estate, obviously, is a big one. Gas and oil is a massive one. Aviation, water rights, mineral rights, conservation easements, carbon credits, those are the ones that affect your tax, because you get the depreciation schedules. So it's how you make it, how you use deductions and how you invest collectively makes up your tax. And so those are the kind of questions key some category of that, like I told you before the show, I have a new guy that just joined by over $20 million of real estate and only a few LLCs, no S corp, no C Corp, no trust. I'm like, and then you have these ridiculous insurance agents who say insurance will cover it all. You don't need to have an LLC or an S corp RC. You do? You do too. I would never live on just insurance that is such as 1960s conversation, like you guys got to grow up?

 

Keith Weinhold  38:17  

Yeah? Well, you know, totally. And you mentioned Rich Dad, and it's really the Cash Flow Quadrant. And one thing that the Cash Flow Quadrant helps delineate is you touched on it your tax treatment. Tom wheelwright is the most frequent guest that we have ever had here on the show, being the tax guy coming from the rich dad school. And Tom wheelwright was really the first one to inform us that something like 98 to 99% of the tax code is actually a road map for where the deductions are. Only one or 2% of maybe are the tax tables and what you must pay almost all the rest of it, is this roadmap to give you a guaranteed ROI if you follow it, something that you don't usually get in investing. And you brought up a few interesting tax strategies there. I think one of them is how you employ your kids and get deductions that way, while your kids learn. Tell us more about that.

 

Loral Langemeier  39:11  

I mean, when Logan was two, I put him out. He was painting buildings. He was around all sorts of, you know, title companies and closing tables. And then my daughter's same thing. So I take them with me. There's again, part of parenting is they have to be involved in your life. And I think so many parents just leave their kids home. They leave them with the device or their phone or some iPad. None of us have it like if they're gonna sit at a time, you know, a closing table, then I want them if they may not know everything at that moment, but that experience in that environment of just being a natural environment for them to know, to do business deals. It changes them. Changes your kids drastically. And then fast forward, when my kids are 18, they get an LLC for their birthday, and they're added on shareholders in a bigger way, because then I use again the roadmap. Because, you know, well, I always. Laugh, I say, but people read fiction novels and junk whatever. I'm reading the tax code. I think the tax code is the most creative, freeing body of work that has ever been done. It's fascinating. It's so creative. My son's becoming a CPA because of it. So when my son went to school, he was on a football scholarship. He played for Georgia, Southern starting center five years because I'm a single mom and I only make $42,000 I don't even own a phone. I don't own a car. I don't own a home, actually, because it's held in LLC It's an estate property

 

Keith Weinhold  40:32  

I put or on paper or on papers. 

 

Loral Langemeier  40:34  

No companies own it all and trust on it all. So I own nothing like I literally live Rockefeller style, and I teach people that this really was beyond the millionaire maker stuff. But my point with the kids is then when he goes to school. So instead of going every Friday to watch him play football, on a Saturday, I went on a business trip to see my son, and he and I actually are looking again. That's in states pro Georgia, where Georgia's other is buying some apartments that we can then back into, and then then we go to the athletic department, and we know how much they will guarantee rent paying scholarship men to live in our apartment, like there are so many cool ways, and that that's how my son will get involved. So during all of my trips to watch him, Yes, I took one hour to watch him play football. Otherwise, I went to see my business partner. So my point is, and when he came home, he had to come home, not to just come home, but he came home to see his business partner happened to be his mom. So there's a way to put your kids into these businesses early and put them through school, have school that can't be written off. And even though he's done a scholarship, all that travel was still not a deduction, unless we structured it as a deduction to the real estate company. There's so many strategies that I honestly, Keith, I made a lot of these up. And I went to, you know, my top tax team, and I said, why can't we do this? I said, I want this to be done. Tell me the legal way to do it, and then they would guide me. So then I just turn around and I teach other people that when you do your own taxes, number one, you're not educated enough to do your own taxes, so why people do Turbo Tax or even H R Block? I mean, that's where kindergarteners play. And if you want to be a millionaire, you have to get experts around the table that really know what they're doing. I mean, a proper tax strategist at the level we have, and I have, like, 28 people on my financial teams that integrate. I mean, they have masters of accounting. So they've gone to school five and six years. They've sat for four exams and had 2000 hours of audit. So whenever, like an engineer or somebody, even a real estate investors, try and do their own taxes, I'm like, it's a highly, highly skilled expertise. So anyway, I could go into the team approach. I don't think Keith, I know so many people are so close to getting it really all right, but their sequence is completely out of order, and they're just at call tax and invisible paying. You're just used to it. You're just used to paying it because you think you have to. And you've been scared by the media that it's this big, scary thing, and the IRS is going to come get you. It's like, no, they're not. This is legal to do all this stuff. You just have to do it right and document it right

 

Keith Weinhold  42:57  

right. And that's part of your team, your tax team, and that's another good ROI. If you pay a tax preparer and strategist 5k which is more than most people, maybe they're making you 10x that or more with their knowledge of the tax code. And for you, the listener that might find the tax code to be dry reading, you know, for a lot of people, you're probably right that it is dry reading. But if you think of it this way, if I act on what I read, then I am getting paid for what I'm reading here in the IRS tax code. Well, Laurel, do you have any just last thoughts, overall, whether that's about wealth, mindset or real estate or anything else, as we're winding down here

 

Loral Langemeier  43:35  

any question ever you just go to ask Laurel, A, S, K, L, O, R, E, L, ask questions. Make a request you can ask about I have online events. You can ask for free tickets. You can ask her ebooks. So ask her whatever you want. We're super generous on giving gifts away to especially our new listeners and new folks. But a lot of it's, I'm going to say it's active engagement. That's a term I've used as I walked into 25 and I look at the people I've made over 10,000 millionaires, probably 12, 14,000 by now. But the difference between those who make it and those who still struggle is active engagement. I'm showing this on your screen just to have it on video, but I got this magic wand because people say I have a magic wand. I said, I do. I naturally now officially have one, and it comes with pixie dust. But it doesn't really matter. It won't work. I can't just, you know, anoint you with my little wand, and all of a sudden it's magically going to change. You have to actively, like you said, study the IRS code, study my books like my millionaire maker is a blueprint for how to be a millionaire. So there's seven families in the book. Pick which one you're closest to and what you've done to yourself, and then start the pattern, and there's a pattern and a sequence for everybody, for seven different kinds of family, and what you've done to yourself. And I also live the last kind of words I would say to people is that I've been doing this way too long. I have no judgment, no criticism about what you did to yourself. A lot of people are ashamed or embarrassed, like I can't believe I'm this old and I should be farther along. So what now? What is my. Saying, so what happened or how you got here? What do you want to do about it now? So we start with a new, fresh line and stand and let's go and you can create anything you want with the right team around you and the right initiative. So just know you'll be actively engaged in this. This isn't me, doing it for you or to you. It's with you, and you have to own it. You have to own your own wealth. Nobody else cares about it more than you.

 

Keith Weinhold  45:23  

these strategies work as long as you do. Laurel, it's been a great mindspring of ideas for the listener here. Thanks so much for coming onto the show.

 

Loral Langemeier  45:32  

Thank you. Appreciate it. Look forward to hearing from many of you and helping you out.

 

Keith Weinhold  45:35  

Oh, yeah, a wide range of expertise from Laurel Langemeier there. And you know, we're talking about the awareness of the gap between who you are and who you want to be earlier. Really, there could be a gap between how you're utilizing your rental property currently and what it could be Laurel found more ways, for example, to serve her short term rental tenants in the Arkansas Ozarks with providing boats and jet skis dockside to her tenants. In fact, there's a book all about this called the gap and the gain. It was published about five years ago, and let me tell you what it's about and maybe save you 10s of hours of reading most people, especially highly ambitious people, are unhappy because of how they measure their progress. We all have an ideal. You have an ideal. I have an ideal. It's a moving target that is always just out of reach. Well, when you measure yourself against that ideal, you're in the gap. However, when you measure yourself against your previous self, you're in the gain measuring your current self versus your former self, that can have enormous psychological benefits. That's how you can feel like you're making progress, and that gives you confidence, and you make more progress. You might have only owned two rental properties last year, and you're going to have four this year. So you want to make that comparison, don't make the comparison that Ken McElroy has 10,000 units and you never will big thanks to the driven and experienced Laurel Langemeier, today, I feel like she has a narrow gap between who she is and who she could be. 

 

There is a lot happening here at GRE in our newsletter called The Don't quit your Daydream letter. I recently let you know about what chat gpts ai updates mean for real estate investors, and I showed you that before and after photo of how you can now tell AI to just renovate your rental unit, and within just a minute, it shows a pre and post renovation, it shows what the renovation would look like. AI is also being used for fraud, like to generate fake receipts or insurance fraud that makes a property look damaged when it really isn't. And every few weeks, I like to send you a good real estate map, like the recent one that I sent you, showing the cost of living by county and how that map was almost like a cheat code on how you can find the best real estate. 

 

Also here at GRE our free coaching is helping connect you with properties. Many of you are interested in BRRRR strategy properties lately, I recently reshot the entire real estate pays five ways course, and I updated it for today's times with today's numbers. I'm giving that away for free, those videos and even giving a free gift at the end of the course, I share those resources with you in the Don't quit your Daydream letter as well. 

 

And then, of course, I sent you details on the Great Investor Summit at sea cruise starting in Miami, sailing the Caribbean June 20 to 29th and how you can have dinner with me and the other faculty, like Robert Kiyosaki, Robert Helms, Peter Schiff, Ken McElroy and more. And this particular cruise event is not cheap to attend, although I don't make any money from the event, but our Don't Quit Your Daydream letter is totally free. I would love to have you as a reader, and you'll stay informed on all these Real Estate Investing Insights and trends and events and more, otherwise, you're really missing out. See, the reason that I write the letter is that I have visual things to show you that I cannot do on an audio medium here, like this, like those real estate maps. And before and after photos. I write the letter myself. You know so many other letters are now AI generated. I write this myself. It is all from me to you. And if you aren't already a reader, you can get the Don't quit your Daydream. Letter free right now, just text text GRE to 66866, and by the way, we don't text you the letter each week. That would be intrusive. The letter is emailed. It's just a convenient way for you to opt in. You can do that while it's on your mind again. Text GRE to 66866, and I'll turn it alternative way to get the letter is to visit get rich education.com/letter that's get rich education.com/letter. I've got a lot more for you next week. Until then, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

 

Speaker 1  51:01  

Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.

 

Keith Weinhold  51:25  

You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. It's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters. And I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text GRE to 66866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text GRE to 66866.

 

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com

 

 

Keith discusses the shift from a six-figure to a seven-figure income being necessary for a comfortable lifestyle and argues that a $5 million net worth is a minimum for financial security.

He explains the benefits of leveraging a car loan for arbitrage, using a 3.99% interest rate to invest in real estate with a 20-25% total return. He also discusses the current state of the real estate market, noting that home prices and rents are expected to increase by 3-5% annually.

Lower mortgage rates could increase affordability and bring more buyers into the market, potentially leading to higher home prices.

Two-bedroom rents have increased by 3.7% nationwide, with significant growth in Nebraska metros.

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Complete episode transcript:

 

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai 

 

Keith Weinhold  0:01  

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold today, why earning a seven figure income is the new six figures? Then a discussion on the direction of real estate prices and rents. I just bought a car though I could have paid all cash. Why did I get a loan instead? Then learn about how to perform due diligence on buying an income property with the pros and cons of turnkey real estate investing and the mistakes you must avoid today. On getricheducation.

 

since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show, guess who? Top Selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com

 

Corey Coates  1:20  

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

 

Keith Weinhold  1:36  

Welcome to GRE from the first State of Delaware to the 50th state of Hawaii and across 400 nations worldwide. I'm Keith weinholden. This is get rich education, the voice of real estate investing Since 2014 Are we really gonna change the name away from the Gulf of Mexico? Well, I'll tell you one thing. There is zero history of hurricanes in the Gulf of America, therefore, I expect the appropriate adjustment to my insurance premiums big savings. Hey, you know, despite being a geography guy, I'm really not emotionally invested in this movement to change the names of giant pieces of real estate like Denali back to Mount McKinley and the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America. It's only a little interesting to me. I mean, there are just more significant things to concern oneself with. So call it either one. I don't care. I know what you're talking about. Before we talk real estate, let's discuss your personal finances. I recently watched Dr Steven Franson speak surfacing this topic, and it got me thinking, when it comes to annual income, is you earning seven figures like the new six figures. Now, I guess that earning six figures could still be a short term goal to some people that are new to the working world, but maybe as little as a decade ago, having a six figure income was aspirational, or even a sign that you made it, or could even feel wealthy. I remember that today that is so far gone. Now, of course, it depends on where you live, but today, you need 50k just to survive. Your housing would be pretty standard in that case, and I don't know that you could get much fresh, healthy food at 50k per year, you might still have to be living with your parents. You need 100k just to sort of live. Perhaps that's if you're single and you're near the coasts, or you're married without children today, you need 200k for a life with travel and some dining out. I mean, you couldn't really even ball out on your vacations, like on 200k you're gonna balk at 500 bucks a night for a resort hotel. I mean, you're staying at more of a hotel than a resort, but at 200k of income, you can usually do some discretionary spending. At 300k in a lot of places, that's what a full family needs, a household with kids in order to live a little bit beyond that, and that's a combined income both spouses. If you make 450k today, now you're able to travel pretty well. You're probably still flying coach more than first class at 450k you may or may not be paying for the airline lounge, but you are staying at some comfy hotels. You really need to make $1 million a year today to live pretty close to all out fly first class travel well. But you're still flying commercial on a million dollar salary. You're not chartering anything. If that has not bought you time to cook, you can afford an executive chef with a million dollars so that you don't have to eat restaurant food. You know, restaurant food, even at finer restaurants, is laced with seed oils. This is why what used to be a six figure lifestyle is now a seven figure lifestyle. My spin here on this also is whatever you do at any income level, 50k a year to a million bucks a year or more, buy enough time to exercise that's something that's going to matter both to you and to those that you love over the long term. All right, so that's income. How about when it comes to net worth? There is a minimum amount in my mind that you need to have in net worth for me to say that you've got it made in America today. What do you think that number is? How about that? What do you think is the threshold? What's your thought? It is $5 million that is just a starting point, a minimum net worth that you need, if you just invested that you could probably live off its income for the rest of your life. For most people, compound interest will not get you to the $5 million net worth Mark anytime soon. Only leverage will. But yeah, after the COVID induced wave of inflation years ago, you've gotta recalibrate what you think of as a lot of money, and some people haven't caught up with this still. Now, I was on that great riverboat tour of Chicago not long ago. I think I brought this up to you in a previous episode, but you know, one thing that struck me as odd was that the tour guide, he was describing Chicago skyscrapers and the architecture around us, and he said they poured millions into that project. I mean, really emphasizing that millions were spent. I mean, today millions can mean as little as 2 million. That's an amount so tiny today for a construction project that what is that like, four average homes would be $2 million I mean, some entire counties in the Bay Area have a median home price of more than $2 million just one mediocre home. So let's talk about the direction of home prices and rents nationally here. Now I do not think that home prices or rents can really climb a whole lot over the next year, like 10% appreciation. I don't see it now. I also don't see how home prices and rents could fall substantially. The reason that prices cannot spike dramatically, it's still due to an affordability constraint, and I don't expect that prices or rents are going to fall a good bit either, or really fall significantly at all, because housing demand still exceeds supply. So that's the constraint on the downside. Really, nothing has changed there. The average for sale home today, it gets between two and a half and five offers that obviously depends on the area, so you keep seeing both prices and rents increase at this range of three to 5% that's the zone that we're in now, and we've been in that zone for most of the last Two years. Really pretty modest, not exciting, appreciation rates. Zumper tells us that two bedroom rents are up 3.7%

 

nationwide. Rents have actually declined in some Sunbelt cities, Durham, North Carolina and Nashville are some big losers I was describing Austin to you a few weeks ago. Do you know that two national leaders in rent growth are both in the same state. Yes, these two cities are both up more than 20% in rents year over year. It's in the Midwest. Any idea where I'm talking about it is Lincoln and Omaha, Nebraska both up over 20% and perhaps recent GRE listener guest grant Frankie is happy about that. He's the only person I know that invests predominantly in Lincoln, and this is due to strong job growth and also that supply that still hasn't kept up with demand. Now back to my point about how nationally, both rent growth and price growth are still pretty modest, which is still a highly profitable formula for a leveraged investor that bought right But historically, it is kind of boring. Many believe that as soon as mortgage rates fall sharply, and a lot of surveys show this, if. That five and a half percent is the magic mortgage rate level that will increase affordability so much that home prices will soar. I'll tell you my spin on that is maybe even that remains to be seen from listening to me for 10 and a half years now, you know that the direction of the economy has a substantial effect on housing, rents and prices, a force bigger than just mortgage rates. And when mortgage rates fall and other interest rate types fall, that usually means that the economy needs the help, which might mean that employment is down. If employment falls, home prices can still rise. They usually do, but perhaps not as much as you thought they would. So my point is, is that when mortgage rates fall significantly, that does not automatically translate into soaring price growth. Again. You gotta take history over hunches. If there's one thing that feels a little different in this cycle though, it's that we do have this palpable amount of pent up housing demand, so lower rates really could bring a lot more buyers off the sidelines. So therefore, it is possible that home prices will soar if rates really plummet. It is just not axiomatic. Now I just bought a new car, though I could have paid all cash. I chose to get the loan. And before I tell you about why I considered not getting a car at all and just using Uber Lyft ride sharing services forever. But sometimes I like to go off the beaten path and trek in some remote places. So that just wouldn't work. I also travel a good bit, and I considered not owning any car that's tethered to just one place. It's just not that efficient. But it came down to freedom. I enjoy my freedom and autonomy to hop in my own car and drive it on a whim. Though I could have paid all cash for this new car purchase, I chose to put the minimum amount down, and I got a loan for about 95% of the cost of the car. Why would I do that? Car debt is surely not as good as real estate debt. With car debt, I have to repay my own loan. I cannot outsource these car debt payments to tenants, and the payment is about $900 a month. I'll have to pay all of that myself. Also, unlike real estate, a car is a depreciating asset. Unlike mortgage interest, car loan interest is typically not tax deductible either. I'm not going to rent this car out through Toro and try to get an income stream off the car. Nothing like that. So this might sound like three strikes against a car loan. I've got to make the payment myself. It's declining in value, especially as a new car. It starts depreciating fast as soon as I drive it off the lot, and I'm not going to have any tax breaks. Oh, come on. I mean, that might sound like bad debt to a lot of people. Leading GRE I am a staunch advocate for good debt. So why did I embrace a car loan to the maximum leveraged amount? Because I am making my car loan good debt. The definition of good debt is debt that makes money for you. Car loan debt is secured, meaning there is underlying collateral, the car itself. And by the way, credit card debt is an example of unsecured debt. The big reason, though, is the financing through the dealership BMW is a 3.99% interest rate for five years, my credit's perfect. So I got a good rate there. Therefore this car loan is a simple arbitrage play. I'm borrowing at a lower rate to invest at a higher rate. Look, even if my car loan rate were double 8% I would probably still get this car loan, but it's 3.99How do I have confidence that I'm going to beat that on an annualized basis over the next five years? Well, first future inflation expectations are elevated, like I touched on on last week's show, if true, inflation the real diminished purchasing power of your dollar over the next five years is 4% I mean, that's a break even for me, right there already, but I'm gonna do a lot better than that. As a real estate investor, I know that instead of sinking this money into the car, that's enough of a down payment for a rental single family. Home or almost a low cost duplex, and being cognizant that real estate pays five ways, I expect a minimum of a 20 to 25% total rate of return with low risk. Now, if you're a new listener, that last part sounded far fetched. I know that's okay. You just don't know how to calculate your ROI for an income property with a loan. Yet another way to describe my strategy here is though I could pay cash, why would I tie up that many funds in a car? So I'm cognizant of opportunity cost. Opportunity cost means that you're missing out on a greater benefit when you choose one option over another. This loan approach also keeps me more liquid. Look, keep your money. Don't give it to a bank. Make your bank take five years to get all the money, while my $900 monthly payment stays fixed the whole time as inflation just keeps relentlessly debasing the bank's payment that they get from me. I mean, with that part, it works the same way as it does in real estate or any fixed rate loan that you could get. Be mindful, by paying all cash, you would not improve your net worth at all. Nothing happens to your net worth. Paying all cash reduces both your asset column and your debt column by the same amount, and it hurts your liquidity. Now, if you've got an emergency, you could be in a case where all of your funds would be gone if you paid all cash, they're inside the car, and you might not be able to extract them back out. All right. Well, what about the depreciating asset part of this equation? That's what most cars are. Well, just like a piece of real estate, your car's value will rise or fall regardless of your equity position. That doesn't influence it at all. So I will be underwater on the car. That's a way that some people might look at it. That means that I'm going to owe more on the balance than the car is worth. That appears irresponsible to some people. Well, yeah, that just means that the bank's money is tied up in the car, not mine. I've got it off giving me a good return. Look, when you have loans, you have another type of leverage, and it's not the mathematical type that I often discuss here. I mean, have you ever owed a friend money when something untoward happens? Who is motivated to talk between the two of you? You are your friend, your friend. They're going to be the one that's willing to work with you and help you out. They've got to give you levers when there's a mal apropos occurrence and the borrower loses their job or has a medical disaster and a huge bill, the person that's owed the money is always going to keep communication lines open with you, you as the borrower, are the one that is in control. Keep your debt on, keep your own money, stay in control. And how is this car loan making money for me, if I get a, say, 23% total return from income property and keep paying a 4% car loan, that is 19% arbitrage, I mean, what an easy choice. Again, the definition of good debt is debt that is used to increase your wealth. So getting the Max car loan allows me to avoid paying that opportunity cost of having all the funds tied up in a depreciating asset. And that is how a real estate investor buys a car. Now you're a smart investor. I mean, we have a really wise, responsible audience comprised of people just like you. But what would be some reasons that a real estate investor should pay all cash? Because there are some, and a lot of them revolve around, if you're financially irresponsible, if instead you got a car loan so you could stay liquid and maintain your life as a profligate and reprobate gambling degenerate and lose it all on sports gambling through the freaking Draft Kings and FanDuel apps. Okay, that's not a good reason. But as a GRE listener, that probably is not you. I was probably not talking about you, right. There another reason to pay all cash rather than getting the loan like I have, is if you don't have the liquidity to service the 900 Dollar monthly debt payment yourself, you could be over leveraged. See the chunk that I'm investing in real estate instead of the car that real estate will produce income for me, but it actually will not produce as much as $900 in cash flow to fully offset the car payment. Now it's going to produce a few $100 but my arbitrage is being created with the summation of all of real estate's five profit centers. I've got the whole shebang now, the leverage appreciation, the cash flow, the ROA, the tax benefits and the inflation profiting all coming at you. All five. My liquidity comes from elsewhere. A third reason why a real estate investor would want to pay all cash for a car is because say that you would effectively be forced to pay all cash for the car. Because if you took on a $900 monthly payment, that would dent your mortgage loan qualifications, debt to income ratio that mortgage loan underwriters are going to look at it would hike up your DTI so much that you couldn't qualify for future income property loans. So right, there are, what was that? Three reasons that a real estate investor would want to pay all cash if they could. But let's not lose the bigger point I was talking about the exceptions there. The bigger point is that consider getting the maximum loan for your next car, or even getting a loan against your current car if you already have one without any debt on it. It's actually a rational approach, because you want to consider the loan first, since this is your money, you earned it, approach it with the strategy first of keeping your own money that you traded away your finite life's time for. Think of keeping it first and only then consider giving it away next. I am getting the biggest car loan that I can and making the minimum monthly payments all 60 months five years, I did the same thing with my last car. It is an easy choice for me in just one word, it is for the arbitrage one word, most experienced financiers and real estate investors have not been exposed to those ideas that I just shared with you, and at the least, I am confident that I just gave you something to chew on mentally. There I've been talking about the intersection of your personal finances and real estate investing. Today, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold here on episode 548 of the get rich education podcast 

 

what have GRE listeners been doing these past few weeks, they have been scooping up BRRRR properties, employing the buy, renovate, rent, refinance and repeat strategy fueled by GRE 's recent live event. You can watch the video of the event on demand right now, get an understanding of the strategy, see why it's so lucrative, and if it interests you, even get you paired up with actual property addresses conducive to the strategy. You can do that at GRE webinars.com this event can indelibly elevate your entire socio economic class and shape your legacy. That is a deep statement. Hey, this is what 8x leverage and $500 plus of cash flow on each single family rental property can do for you with the burr strategy in Cleveland. I mean, how much earlier will this allow you to retire? The event is free to watch. You can watch from home. I mean, come on, what else are you going to do at home tonight? Spend that time cleaning out your closet or smoking meats. Maybe at least, spend that time getting a car loan. What's the opportunity cost of you smoking meats tonight when you can actionably Build a real estate legacy with the BRRRRstrategy? Strategically outsource the meat smoking to somebody else. That's what I do. It does not take much to get started. These pre renovated homes are often about 60k some GRE followers have already bought two or three at a time. You'll see Jerry's investment coach Naresh and event co host Phil. I mean, just watching him talk is amazing. Phil is America's preeminent authority on burr real estate investing. Again, you can watch the event right now, and I don't know how long we'll keep it up for, just visit GRE webinars.com 

 

Next fatal mistakes that you've got to avoid when buying income property with some vital due diligence tips. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich and. Vacation. 

 

You know what's crazy? Your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it. If I wasn't invested myself, you can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back. No weird lockups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing, check it out. Text family to 66866, to learn about freedom, family investments, liquidity fund, again. Text family to 66866 

 

Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Chaeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridge lending group.com that's Ridge lending group.com

 

Robert Kiyosaki  26:49  

this is Rich Dad, Poor Dad. Author Robert Kiyosaki, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold. And the reason I respect Keith, He's a very strong, smart, bright young man.

 

Keith Weinhold  27:10  

Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, it's been a while, but I know that I shared with you before that my first ever out of state rental property that I bought ended up being a loser, and this is despite the fact that the turnkey provider and property manager that I was hiring for the property, they even told me not to buy the property because they couldn't keep it occupied in that neighborhood, and they told me to buy a different one instead. I didn't listen. I bought it anyway, and I lost we couldn't keep it occupied, so after a few years, I sold it to an owner, occupant, family for a small profit, but it was after years of negative cash flow, so there really wasn't any profit there, because, like I just said, we couldn't keep it occupied with a rent paying tenant that was back in 2012 near Fort Worth Texas. I bought it because it was cheap, just 153k and it looked pretty. It was brick. Those are both bad reasons to buy. Cheap doesn't always mean good. And the fact that a property looks pretty, I mean, I guess that's a somewhat good thing, but it should not be a deciding factor. I was never going to live there facts Trump feelings in investing. So my first bad experience was totally avoidable. I can only blame myself. Let me tell you about some other fatal mistakes to avoid, as we talk about some turnkey real estate investing due diligence. Since turnkey means all done for you, or another way to describe the property is a rent ready property. You know that word turnkey? It's sort of this compelling, even seductive buzzword, and it just might make you think that, ah, everything is just handled now and forever. It's gonna sail along just fine. No, it won't. Now, this is the type of investing that can change your life. This is the real estate pays five ways. Compound leverage Trumps compound interest, type of vehicle. Financially free beats that free type of vehicle. You're winning the inflation Triple Crown all those great, formulaic GRE mantras, but you better check to make sure before you get too far into it. And that's why we're talking about vital due diligence here. I think you know by now that turnkey, it means a property that's really just got three things. It's already renovated or new. Secondly, has a tenant in it, and it has professional property management from day one. Now, the property providers at GRE marketplace, they are some of the good ones. They have good reputations. Many have been in business for a long time, but some others do not. So what about a provider? Provider that's in, say, Oklahoma, but you live out of the area on one of the coasts, and this Oklahoma provider, they're trying to pass off a property in Oklahoma City or Tulsa to you, it's actually in a class D neighborhood the worst. And they're sort of presenting it like it's a Class B minus neighborhood, right? How can you hedge against that? How can you know that things are not being misrepresented to you? Well, of course, everyone knows about Google Street View. You're probably going to look at that first that's going to tell you about the street scene. It's free to use a paid service that gives you neighborhood analytics. Is it neighborhoodscout.com you want to verify crime rates in areas, income levels, poverty levels, education levels and school quality to make sure that the property characteristics are what you are being told, and some of those attributes always matter with property. I mean, crime rates matter because even though you're not living there so you're not going to be able to retain respectable rent paying tenants that would tolerate a high crime neighborhood. Understand, though, that not all crime data is the same. Violent crime is probably the worst shoplifting, I'll call that in the middle. And then most traffic violations, they're light crimes. Now, if you're buying a single family rental type, of course, the quality of the school district, well, that's going to matter more than if you're buying a building of little efficiency apartments where the school district hardly matters there, because you're not catering to families. I've mentioned before that we go look.com. Is a service where you can hire an independent inspector, not even a real estate related person, necessarily, but just an independent on the ground inspector to just go check out a neighborhood at any hour of the day or night. Now, if you have any question about the out of state neighborhood that you're buying in an easy way to get a check on the decency of the neighborhood is something really simple. Make sure the turnkey provider owns properties in the area that they're selling to you. This helps ensure that they're not offloading their problem properties onto you. That's something that's probably only going to happen with an inexperienced provider that doesn't have a reputation to protect yet. But when it comes to neighborhood quality, once I'm pretty serious about buying a property, do you know who I usually get reliable information from? And it's virtually free, and you're contacting this party anyway, so it's so easy for you that is just simply ask your property inspector. I mean, you always want that independent, certified Property inspector to walk inside every room of your prospective purchase, and they make that punch list for your seller before you close that's on either a renovated or a new build property always get that inspection. I've talked about that before, and that often costs $500 or less on a single family home, and today it's about $800 or less on a duplex, well before my inspector even checks out the place. I like to let them know that I live outside the area, and I want their insight on the neighborhood as well. I mean, inspectors live locally there, so they'll probably be able to give you a good answer before they even do your physical inspection. They already know the area really well, and it doesn't even cost you any more above your normal inspection cost to just get a little on the ground intelligence. And of course, your inspector works for a company independent of your property provider, so their information should be unbiased. They work for you. Now after the inspection, how about your appraisal and some due diligence with that, what if your appraisal comes in low. Everyone wants to talk about if your appraisal comes in high, that's instant equity that you have, but see if the appraisal comes in low with a turnkey property where everything was renovated, that may or may not be a problem, because the comparables that were used for your valuation, they don't have everything renovated in them like your property does. So the subject property, the one that you've got under contract to buy that could very well have a lot of say, new plumbing, electrical, HVAC, the roof, bathrooms, paint, flooring, lighting, kitchens. I mean, most, or all of those components could be new in yours. It's common for yours to have all those components, and then the comparables do not have those now, you and your seller, you will have to negotiate on who's going to close the appraisal gap. I've discussed that part on a previous episode, but I'm point. Out how you can still be getting value even when your appraisal is low and it's worth it. Down the road, you're going to have less maintenance headache than your appraisal comparables will most of the time. Turnkey properties are renovated to cover major systems, and that means you do not have major expenses. Soon these expenses get wrapped into your mortgage payment, and that's a lot better for you than coming out of pocket three years later to replace an entire roof. Another thing to keep in mind is that a property provider that's been in business for a lot of years, they do not have interest in selling you a lemon of a property and hurting their reputation, but that seller does have a little interest in getting the maximum dollar. I mean, that's almost intrinsically natural in human beings. I mean, everyone has that motivation, just like you do when you sell your property down the road. So these rent ready or turnkey properties, they're almost always better if you're a busy professional or you just want to spend your time doing something else. I mean, I think that's a pretty well established concept in the investing industry, but I really think these rent ready properties, they are better for even more people than just busy professionals. I mean, consider the alternative, if you try to screen and identify a property yourself and do all the rehab and manage the contractors. I mean, first of all, you can be dealing with a hard money loan where you're paying four or five points plus a 12% interest rate, since that's all that's available for distressed properties, and unless you have experience managing contractors, oh, boy, you could have construction timelines that go over by several months. Well, now that can eat a huge portion of your investment that you thought you were making. You're paying 12% and you have no tenant all this time, but instead, when you buy a rent ready property, and you've got the best mortgage rates and terms from day one, and you've got a rent paying tenant from day one, and not all these headaches and time lost and contractors are trying to manage with turnkeys at GRE marketplace, those rehabs are done by crews that work full time for the turnkey provider, so they work at more affordable rates than what you could get as an out of state buyer if you're trying to patch together contract and crews yourself. So at scale GRE marketplace providers, they're also dealing with the same material types over and over again, so they're faster at doing it. The materials are also reliably sourced. You won't have the 10s or hundreds of hours managing all this, checking with the rehabbers, checking for quality control, making sure the amount of work that you were paying for was actually done. I mean, some people listen to this show and they had that real estate pays five ways, epiphany, that big light bulb moment, but then they try to do this rehabbing and investing themselves to save a few dollars, is what they thought, and it's rarely worth it. So avoid the massive time commitments with all this. I mean, you're also going to be doing other things, coordinating inspections and permits with city municipalities. I mean, what a nightmare. GRE marketplace providers, they've already done all of that for you and more now that you've bought the property, all right, what about the potential for poor management? Choosing your property manager is of utmost importance, because that person or firm, they're going to vet your tenants, handle the repairs, collect your rents and take care of any other issues at your rental property. They'll understand the local landlord and tenant law, you're going to be seeing the property infrequently, if you ever see it at all, so keeping an eye on things becomes key. Now, once you own the property and you have the tenant in there, there is always the potential for your property manager to do a poor job, costing you money, making your investment less lucrative, I like to ask my manager if they do regular property inspections, like getting inside the unit every six months. Now, you can read online reviews, like the star reviews, the number of stars for property managers. I mean, that could be helpful. It can also quickly get misleading. You can get a lot of bad reviews on an adequate manager. Because property management is such a tough job, I think that one of the best things you can do when vetting a property manager is to ask a friend. A lot of people don't have that option. So then do a search on the bigger pockets. Forums for your prospective property manager. So read reviews. Don't just look at star ratings. And I'll tell you, property management is one of the few areas in my life where I am willing to accept a service level of adequate or mediocre. Almost no one raves about their property manager, but I do have managers because they are the guardians of my quality of life, of your standard of living. We want them to serve our tenants, but I don't want 80 tenants being able to text message me. So there you go, armed with a number of due diligence items that can help you make sure that you buy your next income property, right? GRE marketplace, we typically connect you with the experience providers, but I'm telling you this because it's prudent to do some checking on your own and inquiring like this too, in case you have any doubt. Now, you notice on GRE marketplace, where you can connect with free investment coaching as well, that the properties, at times, they seem less expensive than you would expect. Why is this? Well, investor advantage markets, they have low prices. I mean, that's just one reason that they are investor advantaged like Ohio, Indiana, parts of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, Tennessee, Arkansas, Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas and some of the other Mid Atlantic states And Florida, another reason the GRE market prices seem low is that there is no agent that has to be compensated. It is a direct model. Another reason is economies of scale. Providers provide homes in bulk, so there are savings that way, and there also aren't any owner occupied emotions evolved with income properties. Those emotions can run up the price, or what they really do is they keep it stuck at a high price. So to help you review what you've learned today, a seven figure income is the new six figures. Real estate prices and rents just keep moving up, but modestly for the time being, a car loan can be good debt when you have a reasonable expectation that you can create arbitrage and sufficient liquidity in your life. And though income property is perhaps the most proven wealth generator ever, there are some mistakes to avoid when it comes to buying right between the guidance that you have today and the help of our completely free investment coaching another safety layer. If you're confident that it can benefit you, I encourage you to engage and move at the speed of instruction. It's the only way that you'll benefit I built this resource. I really wish it existed when I started out, and it's available for you at GRE marketplace.com, until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

 

Speaker 1  43:18  

Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice, please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.

 

Keith Weinhold  43:42  

You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, Oh, geez. Today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. It's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters. And I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long. My letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text GRE to66866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text GRE to 66866.

 

The preceding program was brought to you by. Your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com.

 

 

Keith shares some historical perspective on inflation highlighting the cost of a Taco Bell meal in 1999 to its cost today. He also touches on the concept of service inflation, where services like mail delivery and self-checkout at grocery stores have become less convenient but not cheaper.

Keith reviews the historical performance of real estate during the last eight recessions, noting that housing prices usually rise during recessions. He explains the concept of the Inflation Triple Crown: asset price inflation, debt debasement, and cash flow enhancement.

Housing prices usually rise during recessions, as demonstrated by historical data.

Resources:

To learn more about the Inflation Triple Crown go to: getricheducation.com/itc.

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Complete episode transcript:

 

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai 

 

Keith Weinhold  0:01  

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, is higher inflation or even hyper inflation now in our future, and is an imminent recession, or even worse, a depression lurking. What's it all mean for your investments and your real estate? We'll investigate exactly what happens to real estate during recessions, historically today, on get rich education,

 

since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold rights for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com

 

Corey Coates  1:19  

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

 

Keith Weinhold  1:35  

Welcome to GRE from Hartsdale, New York to Springdale, Utah and across 488 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold. I think you know that by now, you are inside one of America's longest running and most listened to real estate investing shows. This is get rich education. Most people have two plans. Plan a get rich. If that doesn't work out, the alternative is Plan B, which is hate rich people.

 

We are firmly rooted in plan a for you here. So yes, we're about building your wealth, but ultimately we are a lifestyle improvement show. I'm going to get to high inflation and the potential for a recession or depression in just a minute. But I recently got a reminder on the fragility of life and its finite nature. My oldest friend recently died. He was almost like a mentor to me, a friend of mine's grandmother recently died, shattering her world, and it's a reminder that you won't be remembered for the money that you make. You won't even be remembered the real estate portfolio that you build. I mean, that surely won't last. The tennis that you serve, they'll die as well. I will be forgotten. This show will be forgotten. The people that love you, their opinions will die with them. Your Haters, their opinions will die with them. You can confirm that this is true right now by naming your eight great grandparents for me, there. Go ahead. You can't do it. I can't either. So what can you do, at least in this finite life that you have on earth? What you can do is enjoy your existence. The good news is, because you can control this, you can control enjoying your life and existence as get rich education is ultimately a lifestyle improvement show, and we are squarely helping you do that right here. And one way that I've done that over the years is by pointing out how inflation is actually advantageous to real estate investors. Well, it impoverishes most people. You're initiated on that by now. That's something that you really found out tangibly back during the pandemic. Now today, though, wow, people are frightened. I've got some contemporaneous material to share with you today, but I'll give you some lessons so that even if you're listening to this 10 years from now, you're going to learn some lessons. Americans inflation expectations for the next five years. They just hit the highest level since 1993 Yeah, expecting a lot of inflation, tariff pressures are a huge concern now. Last week, inside our newsletter, I sent you something that gave you some perspective on inflation. I sent you a photo of a Taco Bell receipt from 1999that might have left your mouth agape if you didn't see it. I'll tell you about it here and expand on this. And yes, it could leave you aghast, stupefied, gobsmacked, or even flabbergasted. In a sense, 1999 was not that long ago. It's sure not like ancient history. I mean, I was alive then, yes, I am here, and I'm from the 1900s. Well, this 1999 Taco Bell receipt that someone found perfectly preserved in the pages of a book. It shows a complete meal that was purchased for $3.50 it was actually just $3.26 and then the rest was tax added in. That's 350 for a chili cheese burrito, a taco nachos and a 16 ounce Pepsi. That's not the price for each item. That is the combined total from 1999 All right, how much do you think those same items would cost today? I don't eat there. I went to the Taco Bell website and found out. I mean, what an inflation measuring stick. This is what cost, 350 A Taco Bell in 1999 costs $11.44 today I use the same sales tax rate to come up with that. So today it's 1144 and today they also ask you a question a Taco Bell, if you want to round up for the kids or something like that, and then just watch, pretty soon, they're gonna request a tip too. That's a 327% price increase, and few people's wages have risen that much since 1999See, I told you that you would be left slack job and flabbergasted. All right, so let's look at where we are today. Now it's not an apples to apples comparison, but you know, Taco Bell is a fast food restaurant. Let's look at the price of a consumer item at a sports stadium today. All right, because both are places that everyday Americans frequent college basketball's March Madness tournaments have been taking place the last few weeks. Well, for the first time ever, the SEC is selling beer at its tournament. The price for one large premium draft beer is $17.50 so before tax or tip, 1750 for one beer all in that might be $20 or more, and I doubt that the beer is really that premium. I mean, you know what kind of beer you get at stadiums. So we look at inflation, one beer today is at least five times the cost of a complete Taco Bell meal in 1999

 

that's price inflation, and that's the stuff that's highly perceptible. Okay, you've been seeing that effect all of your life. It's making most people poorer. It's making real estate investors wealthier. And then there's the inflation that few people consider the less perceptible stuff, service inflation. And what are some examples of service inflation growing up the postal service delivered mail right to my parents porch, and they still do deliver mail right to my parents porch. Their neighborhood was built more than 100 years ago, but look, when new neighborhoods are built today, like places I've lived and perhaps where you live now, the postal service doesn't deliver your mail right to the individual mailbox on your porch. Today, you've got to walk both ways to your neighborhood's mailbox cluster. Some people even have to drive to get their mail. So your mail is no longer being delivered. Really, you have to go pick it up. Well, they don't lower the price for that reduced service level. That's service inflation. A second example is more obvious, grocery self checkout. You're taking the time and doing the work of scanning your groceries, but yet, they sure aren't lowering the prices of your lettuce and your beef jerky. And look service, inflation is here to stay. That is because companies make investments in it. The Postal Service bought those mailbox clusters, the supermarket bought those self checkout kiosks. 

 

All right, so with this ramp and price inflation and service inflation, along with it, and the other forms of inflation that I've talked about on the show before, like stagflation, tip inflation and Shrink flation and skimpflation. What is an individual investor like you supposed to do? Well, stock and mutual fund investors get killed by inflation. I mean, think about it this way, just killed if the Sp5, 100 gains 10% but there's 5% inflation. That's a 50% hidden tax on your gain, plus you might pay capital gains tax. On top of that, savers really get obliterated. I mean, just destroyed if your bond yield or your savings account pays 4% interest, and there's 5% inflation. That is a 125% hidden tax on your gain, and then you might pay regular tax on top of that. So stocks and mutual funds and savings accounts are not the answer. What is the answer? Real Estate and borrowing the opposite of saving. And let me address now, whenever people get fearful that another wave of inflation is coming, whether that's tariff induced or otherwise, let's not get carried away and think that Hyperinflation is right around the corner, although definitions of hyperinflation vary, the most accepted one by economists is a 50% inflation rate per month, not annually, per month. So that would be over 600% a year, with compounding. I mean, that would be really hard to get, but what we do know is that inflation is still elevated above the Fed's 2% target. It's 2.8% today. And what we do know is that more inflation is coming at what rate nobody knows. These facts almost necessitate that you have either got to start your own business, which is tough, or become a real estate investor which is easier, in order to escape this and acquire some lasting wealth. Any devoted listener here knows that the formula for beating it is luckily, not highly sophisticated, not esoteric, not anything that you need a degree or certification for, just own income properties with loans, and that's when inflation produces three profit centers. As we know that is something that I coined as the inflation triple crown. So if you're new, you're learning something. If you've been around here for a while, here's a little comprehension test for you. What are the three crowns in the inflation Triple Crown, you win with asset price inflation, debt debasement and cash flow enhancement. Asset price inflation benefits you because you have leverage gains debt debasement passively lightens our debt burden for us, and then cash flow enhancement, that boosts our cash flow above the inflation rate, because our principal and interest payment stays fixed. And you can learn more about that totally free. You don't even have to leave your email address or anything. You can watch the three videos of the inflation Triple Crown at get rich education.com/itc. For inflation, Triple Crown, it's just good free learning for you there I've made available at get rich education.com/itc, it is a foundational financial education. Is a recession or even a depression eminent, that's straight ahead. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.

 

You know what's crazy? Your bank is getting rich off of you, the average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back. No weird lockups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing, check it out. Text family to 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments. Liquidity fund again. Text family, to 66866

 

hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties, they help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Chaley Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com that's Ridge lendinggroup.com

 

you

 

Dani-Lynn Robison  15:45  

This is freedom. Family investments. Co founder, Danny Lynn Robinson, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.

 

Keith Weinhold  16:00  

Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Wynne Holland, you are inside episode 547. I'll tell you, being a landlord or real estate investor can really change you now. I was using the stair climber at the gym just before talking to you today, I like to set up a big fan down on the floor to keep me cool before running or climbing. Plug it in, set up a fan. When I'm done, I turn off the fan. It's just a habit. I don't pay the electricity bill at my gym, but it's just the way that I would want to be treated. But you know what? When I find a fan that's already set up before I grab it and start on the treadmill. That fan is always running when no one is using it. No one turns off their fans when they don't have to pay for the electricity. And this reminds me of when I owned apartment buildings in Anchorage, Alaska, and tenants kept their windows open, even during the frigid winter, so that they could get fresh air. Yeah, you can guess who was paying the heating bill. It wasn't the tenant. It was me. The larger the apartment building is, the more likely that the owner is the one that pays for more of the utilities. And of course, in that case, you can look into utility sub metering. That process can be costly, but it might be worth it. It can increase your cash flow and your net operating income, which, when it increases your net operating income, that means that it also increases the apartment buildings value. And you know, in real estate today, you've got to look for where the opportunities are. There are opportunities in every market today. For places where there are specifically good opportunities are apartment buildings where their values have fallen 20 to 30% in some markets, it's wise to invest in beaten down sectors that you just know are going to come back like you know, the demand for apartment buildings is going to be there long term. This doesn't mean that you want to invest in any beaten down sector, like Office real estate in general. I don't see how that's coming back. A second strong real estate opportunity today is to find over built pockets, especially ones that exist in Texas and Florida. I mean, this is why they call them buyers markets. A Texas or Florida seller might make you a deal, and that doesn't mean everywhere in these states. For example, Southwest Florida is one area that's specifically over built, even amidst the national landscape that's under built. A third and a fourth area of specific real estate opportunity today are two that I have mentioned before, but they persist. That is still brand new, properties where many builders are still motivated to buy down your mortgage rate to about 5% even 4.75% in some cases, and new builds have low insurance premiums too. And then a fourth opportunity. That's something that we've covered a good bit here these past few weeks. BRRRR, real estate investing, buy, rehab, rent, refinance and repeat. That's a specifically good strategy if you don't have, say, hundreds of 1000s of dollars in liquidity to invest. Now you might ask, do those four strategies have validity? Do they have cogency in today's market, where there are these fears of an economic slowdown. Oh, yes, they do, or I would not have gone over them, but these palpable recession Fears are growing, and some are even asking, is a new Great Depression eminent? There is tons of bad economic news right now, not just in the US, but the global economy is on the edge, starting earlier this month, stock market tremors have turned into full blown convulsions. Trillions of dollars in wealth have just vaporized, wiped out. Investors are rattled, consumers are anxious. Business owners are confused, and those in power in the administration, they insist that tariffs and policy swings are all just part of a transition period, but a transition to what some have even asked, Is the everything bubble finally about to pop. Is this the brink of a recession or something even deeper, a D pressure? Well, one thing is undeniable, from stocks to crypto asset prices recently made a free fall, and I've got some long term lessons for you today, even if you're listening to this years from now, including what a phenomenon like this historically means for the real estate market, it's about what really happens to property values during an economic recession. Stocks recently had their worst week since 2023 barreling toward an all out bear market crash. A bear market means when 20% of the value has been lost from a recent high. Even Bitcoin, the poster child of speculative excess, has cratered. The carnage has been everywhere. But yet, instead of taking steps to prevent an economic meltdown, the administration in power, whether you like them or not, they have introduced more and more radical policies that could accelerate the crisis. Now, some of the tariffs could help long term, but the short term pain is perceptible, and you've got to be able to survive it. We've got new tariffs on multiple countries, and these are our biggest trading partners, even if these import taxes diminish, this is already strained friendships long term, especially with Canada. These countries keep retaliating with tariffs of their own, Canada, Mexico, China and the EU government spending is being slashed. Mass layoffs of federal employees have been underway for a while now. This is not just an economic experiment. I mean, this is a high stakes gamble with global consequences. So is this a detox period, or is it an economic freefall? Treasury Secretary Scott tebescent described this economic shift as a necessary detox period. That's the phrase that he used, and yes, I need to acknowledge there is no more grandma Yellen running the Treasury for long time, listeners, that is a reference to the long running joke about how my late grandmother resembled former Fed chief and former Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, but anyway, according to Besant, the US must break free from what he calls its addiction to government spending in return to private sector growth. Now, hey to me, that sounds good. Actually, that sounds like a good plan for the long term. But here's the problem, that addiction has been the lifeblood of the US economy for decades. And you know, this is something that regular GRE guest macroeconomist Richard Duncan has talked about when he's here. Remember what he's told us for over a decade here on the show, if the US doesn't have 2% real credit growth, credit expansion, well then we go into a recession. Well, what happens when the government cuts spending during soaring consumer prices due to trade wars? What happens when businesses hesitate to invest in the face of extreme uncertainty? Well, the bad news is that tariff whiplash and massive layoffs mean that businesses can't plan, and when businesses can't plan, they freeze. Look, just the other day, I talked to the President of a manufacturing company they make stainless steel tube valves and fittings. Due to all the tariff uncertainty, he's had to set up a reserve account based on what happens next, all right. Well, with that reserve account, that means that that's not money that's going into equipment reinvestment, that's not money that's going into making new hires. What happens when more confidence shatters and markets spiral lower? We may be about to find out. So has the recession, which is a precursor to any depression, already begun? Well, the warning signs are multiplying. Most ominously at last check, the respected Atlanta Fed tracker is now forecasting a more than 2% contraction in US GDP this quarter. That is quite a drawdown and two negative GDP quarters in a row. I mean, that is the definition of what a technical recession is. And here's a quick history piece for you in 1930 to try to quell the effects of the Great Depression, tariffs were passed. Alright. Do you know how badly that turned out back then in 1930 it was called the Smoot Holly Tariff Act. It raised tariffs to try to collect more revenue for the government. It didn't work, and the US sunk deeper into the Great Depression, with rampant unemployment and poverty and social unrest. There was a rise in crime, there were bank failures, even hunger and malnutrition. That's what a depression looks like, right there. Well, back to today. Right now, consumer confidence is collapsing. Retail Sales are plunging. The bond market is signaling distress, and yet those in power appear kind of oblivious to the magnitude of the risk. So what if it's not a transition and it is a start of something far worse? And see, this is just part of what's made investors raise their bets on a recession. Stocks are down like a global trade war has begun. Crypto has fallen like risk appetite has collapsed. Bond prices are rising like inflation is declining, and experts have priced in a 52% chance of a recession in the next 12 months. Okay, 52 that's like flipping a coin and just hoping that it lands on good news. Now in the real estate world, when we talk about direct threats from tariffs, as I've touched on before, the biggest direct threats are tariffs on lumber and on gypsum board. The lumber is used in house framing and trusses. Gypsum board, that just means drywall, the base case for tariffs on Canadian lumber alone, that adds about $10,000 to the cost of a new build typical single family home, which in turn jacks up all existing housing prices and their replacement cost. But let's look beyond that now at market factors. How is real estate adversely affected if the economy slows? Though historically. Let's look at how recessions really affect housing prices, and this is, again, as I like to say, where we take history over hunches. It's easy to have a hunch about what you think is going to happen, but let's look at what has really happened. How do real estate prices perform during recessions. When we look at the last eight recessions, okay? And the most current of those was in 2020, and then when we go back eight recessions ago, that is the 1960s Okay. Well, let me move along in chronological order here, during those eight recessions, starting in the 1960s leading up to today, housing prices, and this includes single family homes up to multifamily apartment buildings, they were just rounding to the nearest whole number here, up 5% there in The late 60s, in that recession, and then up 18% up 14% in the next recession, and then no change, down 1% and then up 6% and then down 13% that was during the 18 month recession, around 2008 and then finally, home prices were up 8% in the latest recession, alright. So in our total of eight recessions since the 1960s home prices only fell significantly one time, and they usually rise that one timethey fell. Let's explore that. That was during the 2008 global financial crisis, which involved more than just the recession. It was a deep recession, that's why it's called the Great Recession, but it also involved more than that. 2008 was special because that was a time of housing oversupply and low homeowner equity positions and a complete mortgage meltdown backed by flimsy liar loans. Well today we are in the opposite of all three of those conditions. We have a housing under supply. Americans have a record 300k plus in protective equity that they are not going to walk away from. And more.

 

Underwriting is stringent, the opposite of a liar loan. So housing prices usually rise in recessions, and if we're teetering on the brink of a recession, there are a lot of reasons to think that housing prices will go up yet again. And by the way, I felt what was happening back in 2008 I invested through it. I think I let you know before that, that's when I owned two four Plex buildings, 2008 but it didn't feel that bad to me, because my properties were temporarily suppressed in value, and that part didn't feel good, but my rents and rental demand went up because no banks would give loans to borrowers to buy properties, so I wouldn't want to sell when the buildings were paying me a higher than ever monthly income. But let's not lose the greater point what I'm telling you here that housing only fell significantly one time through the last eight recessions. That demonstrates the resilience of the housing market. And by the way, those stats were sourced by the NAR and the NB er National Bureau of Economic Research. All right, so why is this? Why is housing resilient in the face of a recession? There are a few reasons, but a main one is see, even if and when times get tough, people still need a place to live, and they will pay for it, especially now, when they have record equity, people are motivated to make mortgage payments and make rent payments, or else they are going to be homeless. So tough times when consumers they get less likely to pay for their car loan are less likely to pay for student loans, and when they default on credit card payments, that's when this stuff happens, but people will fight like heck to avoid losing their home. I mean, people will pay for food, shelter and safety. And also, when it comes to recessions, let's not forget how many bad just God, awful, wrong recession calls there were from over the past two to three years. I mean, the so called experts were wrong, wrong, wrong. Today, the economy is actually starting from a good place. And what do I mean here today, consumers still have money to spend, and they probably will. This is huge, because consumer spending is 70% of the economy, but how will they respond when these higher tariff induced prices hit more shelves at Walmart and Target? We'll see unemployment is still so low that it's practically down there doing squats. But you know these numbers, they're always backward looking, so it does only aim to get worse. The labor market is firm. Interest rates have been pretty steady. They've fallen a little. Energy prices are still down. So really, the bottom line with what I've shown you so far is that federal policies have induced economic trauma, and it does increase the chance of recession over the next 12 months. During recessions, housing is a top performer, and interest rates usually fall as well, and specifically interest rates of all types, including the Fed funds rate, mortgage rates, pretty much every interest rate type, they tend to fall in the mid and late stages of a recession. So this is what you can expect based on history, not hunches. But as for a depression, that is super unlikely. We haven't had one in 90 years, and today. I mean, come on, we have seen what the powers that be do. We can see how they respond to crises. They will just print and print and print more dollars to help pave over any problem. And that's not responsible long term, and it creates more inflation, but that's exactly what the government did to pull us out of the Great Recession and to pull us out of the COVID slowdown. We'll review what you've learned today in just a minute, but let me tell you, though you may very well have the majority of your capital smartly invested in real estate, since that's where the long term wealth creation is, those funds are not very liquid. So what about your liquid funds? Like I pointed out early in the show today, amidst higher inflation expectations, inflation really destroys those in the stock market, and it absolutely crushes savers. Savers really get destroyed, because if your bond yield or your savings account pays you 4% interest, and there's 5% inflation, that is a 125% hidden tax on your gain. And if that's the. Damaging enough there might be tax that you have to pay on that gain, which is not really a gain. This whole thing was a big loss.

 

So for some people, including me, what I do is become a lend. Lord, yes, I get a higher yield by lending to others a lend. Lord. I mean, why settle for just a, say, four and a half percent yield on your liquid funds? I mean, that's the level at both the 10 year bond and the savings account yield today, about four and a half percent. I've parked my own liquid funds for a steady 8% yield that I've been getting for years with a long time established real estate company. I make the loan to them, they have paid on time, every time, for that steady 8% return. And see, when you understand that directly investing in real estate pays five ways, and that a 20 to 30% total ROI, therefore is common and even expected. You can understand how they can pay you and me an 8% return on your liquid funds. You can see where the arbitrage is. Just a little insider tip here. It's called Freedom family investments. If you want to learn more, text family to 66 866. Their minimums are pretty low to 25k and you don't have to be accredited. So for steady 8% returns from the same place in the same vehicle where I've been getting my 8% you can just do it right now. What's on your mind? Text the word family to 66866. 

 

Let's review what you've learned today, Americans have higher long term inflation expectations than they've had since 1993 a 1999 Taco Bell receipt really brings to light how much inflation you have experienced in your life. Though, higher inflation can come. Hyper inflation is unlikely. Let's not get carried away. The prospects for a recession are 52% in the next 12 months, per a plurality of experts, but a depression is really unlikely. Now you know how real estate performs in recessions and why it holds up so well it even tends to appreciate coming up here on the show are some prominent guests, including the leader of rezzy club. You might know about them. Sometimes I share their great charts in our newsletter. Yes, rezzy Club's Lance Lambert will be with us. Also, Legacy finance expert Laurel Langemeier will be here with us on another upcoming episode. Thanks for being here, but you weren't here for me. You were here for you. I'm Keith Weinhold. Don't quit your Daydream.

 

Dolf Deroos  37:53  

Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC exclusively.

 

Keith Weinhold  38:16  

You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info. Oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. It's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters. And I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read. And when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text. GRE to 6866 while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text, GRE to 6866

 

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