Wealth Formula Podcast

Shownotes: 0:00:00 - Advancements in Cancer Detection Technology 0:00:35 - GRAIL Galleri test 0:02:11 - About Dr. Josh Ofman 0:05:14 - Cancer really is a disease of the genome 0:12:35 - Various guidelines for early detection of certain cancers 0:16:45 - Cancer Detection in Blood Biology 0:19:03 - Cell-Free DNA 0:23:38 - How many cancers is the GRAIL Galleri test able to detect?

Why is financial education not part of our school system? To understand that, you have to understand where our school system came from. Our educational system started during the industrial revolution and was influenced heavily by the Prussian system. What do you think of when you hear "industrial revolution?" I think of factories and conveyor belts. This was a time of massive production gains in the United States and a fundamental change in the way we live. So not only did businesses need to produce more products with factories, but they also needed factories to create people to work in those factories. Schools became factories for people. Students were treated like products on an assembly line, all learning the same thing at the same pace, much like widgets rolling off a conveyor belt. The rich business owners were the beneficiaries of this system. They got a workforce ready to fit into their industries, and these workers were less likely to question or challenge the system because that's not what they were trained to do. Despite the fact that we have moved beyond the industrial revolution into the information age, the old education system remains. Lots of standardized tests, rote learning, and teachers seen more as authorities than guides. Now, ask yourself why financial education isn't part of our school system. It becomes pretty obvious doesn't it? Why would a system designed to create a workforce teach them about money? After all, financial independence doesn't exactly incentivize someone to continue working. My guest on this week's Wealth Formula is a young woman trying to change the system. It's clearly an uphill battle but make sure to listen and hear how she's planning to do it.

This week's podcast is about energy. But before we do that I want to comment on a few things about our investing ecosystem. A decade ago when I first started playing around with this podcast concept I was very excited about a whole new world of investing that I was learning about. Why invest in the stock market if you could invest in real estate, oil and gas and other businesses that seemingly made a lot more money and had a lot less risk? A decade later, I can see why it often makes sense for people to just buy ETFs and call it a day. Or, maybe a highly stable asset class such as permanent life insurance i.e. Wealth Formula Banking. Private investing can be very lucrative, but it's not regulated so it attracts all kinds of nefarious and/or incompetent characters to the space. Retail (mom-and-pop) investors are particularly vulnerable to these people because they tend to have less financial sophistication. That's not to say they aren't intelligent. It's just hard to be a full-time professional and a sophisticated investor at the same time. That gets a little dangerous because personal finance podcasters like me are looking for content. We see ourselves as providing education and entertainment when in fact we often inadvertently endorse individuals to whom we should not give a platform. I have to admit that I have been guilty of this myself. Especially early on, I would interview anyone with an interesting idea without considering that my listeners might take the interview as a stamp of approval from me. For example, despite my own vehement and vocal dislike for investments in oil and gas drilling, I've given a platform to people on my podcast who were raising money for that. People in our community lost money because of that. For that, I apologize. In recent months, retail investors in this space have been hit especially hard. The SEC has shut down funds in the carbon capture and cannabis spaces that appear to be based in some level of fraud and other funds have simply collapsed based on poor business plans that were never attenable in the first place. Fortunately, our group was able to dodge these schemes. It's hard enough to invest without swimming with sharks. Case in point…my real estate portfolio and that of my investor group absolutely has some losers in it right now. Much of that is due to an unprecedented slope of rate hikes and unexpected price escalations in such things as materials, property taxes, and insurance. But it's not because of fraud. In investing, you can't always win. You just need to win more than you lose. At the end of the day, my own investments are still going to net out quite profitably. I've borrowed from traditional investing paradigms and "volume-averaged" into a lot of different assets. I've stuck to a plan over several years that will, fortunately, overcome some setbacks and I will now position myself to be opportunistic and take advantage of oncoming distress. It will get ugly and most will be too scared to take action—especially if they have suffered losses. But that's exactly when you want to be greedy, not afraid. But going back to how we can move forward in the safest way possible, we do need to be proactive in risk mitigation—especially when it comes to avoiding scams. So what am I going to do? 1) I will not interview anyone actively raising capital unless I am personally involved in the operation in a position of transparency. 2) Our Investor Club will only present opportunities in which I am a managing partner and/or which has undergone due diligence by a third-party SEC registered broker-dealer. In taking these steps, my podcast itself does become a little bit more challenging. As you may have already noticed, we have shifted to more macro issues than investment-related topics. However, I also believe that the steps we are taking with the podcast and with the investor club will provide our group a "best in class" retail experience that involves institutional-level due diligence. It will be more complicated and challenging to execute but that's what you deserve. Now, getting back to this week's episode of Wealth Formula podcast. We are going to talk about oil and alternative energy sources at the macro level. It's information that you need to understand the larger global financial picture today so make sure to tune in!

What a crazy ride it's been. Despite Covid, plunging interest rates actually made home prices explode to new highs. In my own neighborhood, housing prices doubled. Then it started to look like the housing bubble had started to burst. There were mortgage companies in distress and laid off thousands. Economists warned the next housing recession was upon us. It all made sense. How could such a wild ride not end with a hangover? But then a funny thing happened. For the last few months, housing prices actually started creeping up again. They aren't going up by much. But the big thing is that they're not going down. A lot of this is really due to reduced inventory. People who were going to sell their homes, most likely sold them as they saw their largest asset bubble into a pile of potential cash. With less inventory bidding wars are helping to push prices up further. In fact, Zillow predicts home prices will keep rising in 2024. Obviously a lot of that will depend on what the Fed does in the next few months. This is tricky stuff to predict. My guest on this week's Wealth Formula podcast is using Big Data to make his own predictions. Listen now to hear what he has to say.

Last week I called the economy schizophrenic. Actually, that's an insult to schizophrenics. This is simply a dysfunctional economy. It's the product of a good idea called capitalism with excessive intervention—namely by the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States. Today's economy reminds me a little bit of the movie, Jurassic Park. Altering the natural order of things has unexpected consequences… like a T-Rex eating you alive. Similarly, the Fed printed money for years and kept interest rates at artificially low levels—even when it probably didn't need to. Sure, raising rates 10 years ago might have caused a little recession along the way, but that's NORMAL. Instead, they decided to take intervention to a new level. Rather than seeing the role of business cycles in a healthy economy, they became reactive to equity markets. To be clear, keeping equity markets in a bubble has never been a mandate of the Federal Reserve. But there they were. They would threaten to raise rates, the markets would panic sell and then the Fed would quickly back off. The Fed was playing a game of chicken with investors and the investors won over and over again—so much so that people began to believe that the Fed wouldn't ever let the markets go into free fall. Then Covid happened and, with it, something unprecedented. True helicopter money was released into the hands of ordinary Americans by the United States government. You see when the Fed prints money it lands in the arms of banks who would simply hoard it. This time, things were different. People needed the money to eat so the government put it into their hands. And that, along with high demand for goods because of a crippled supply chain lit the fire of rapid inflation—the worst we have seen in 40 years. Of course, somehow the Fed didn't realize that it was real at first and didn't act quickly. In hindsight, gradual increasing of rates would have made sense and probably prevented the need for extreme measures. Instead, it waited for things to get out of hand and then put its foot on the gas like never before. Now we are sort of in no-man's land. Inflation seems to be getting under control. There is some distress in the economy as seen by bank failures and corporate bankruptcies at 2010 levels. The commercial real estate markets are a mess. But…we also added 339,000 jobs last month. Why? I don't know other than to guess it has something to do with optimism that the Fed will change course and become Dovish with rates. In other words, businesses may not believe that the Fed will let things get that bad before they reverse course and start cutting rates. It reminds me of a spoiled child who knows that if he whines long enough his parents will give in. It's not the kid's fault that he behaves that way. It's the way the parents taught him to behave. Similarly, businesses and investors don't really believe the Fed when it says enough is enough about low rates and money printing. I'm not sure that I do either. So, that's this non-economist's take on what's going on with the economy. There's a good chance that I have several flaws in my argument but, as I've said before, I'm trying really hard to make sense of it so I can move forward. Richard Duncan is a real economist—one who recently spoke to Congress on what he believes needs to be done to move America ahead. He has some pretty good ideas about what's going on with the economy now that I think will be useful to you. Listen to my interview with him on this week's episode of Wealth Formula Podcast!

I am annoyed with this economy. That doesn't seem like a very professional thing to say but I don't know how else to express my feelings any better. You see, nothing really makes sense. Inflation has been as high as it has been since the 1980s. At first, the Fed didn't think it was real and then reacted by increasing interest rates at the fastest rate in American history. Businesses are feeling it. Corporate bankruptcies are at 2009 levels likely in response to illiquid lending markets. The commercial real estate market is paralyzed with blood starting to seep through the streets. But…last month's jobs reports showed that we added 339,000 jobs significantly exceeding expectations. WTF? It makes no sense at all. Why is the jobs report important for us? Well, because that's one of the variables that the Fed is looking at as they decide what to do with rates going forward. Inflation is down to 4 percent which is starting to feel comfortable, but a jobs report like that is going to give the Fed pause on being dovish going forward. So, I have no idea what to expect next. And if I have no idea what to expect then other businesses and investors are likely equally confused. And the problem with that is that uncertainty is what the markets hate the most. So…that's where we are at and that's why I am so annoyed. This week on Wealth Formula Podcast I interview an economist who teaches entrepreneurs. He's written a book on how we can start looking at the economy in a practical way. His perspective is a little different than the academics who run the Fed and it will be worth your time to hear what he has to say. Listen NOW

There is a significant amount of distress in the investor world right now. With inflation and interest rates climbing quickly, it has left the equity and real estate markets in shambles. We will get through this. And while I encourage you to fight against the fear of investing so that you can take advantage of oncoming blood in the streets, I understand if you are reluctant. We've had tough times in American economic history. The Great Depression of the 1930s was a period of extreme economic hardship and uncertainty. It started with a stock market crash on Black Tuesday, October 29. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost about 12% of its value that day. The crash continued into the following weeks. By mid-November 1929, the market had lost over $30 billion in value (approximately $400 billion in today's terms). This loss of wealth led to reduced consumer spending and investment, which in turn led to job losses and business closures. Real estate prices also fell significantly during the Great Depression. Many people were unable to afford to keep their homes or buy new ones, leading to a surplus of available properties and a corresponding drop in prices. However, life insurance companies displayed a surprising level of resilience during the Great Depression. While it was a challenging time for these companies, as it was for the entire economy, they weathered the storm better than many other types of businesses. For this reason, an entire generation of individuals put a premium on permanent life insurance as an investment. It was all they had left once the dust of the Depression had settled. Nevertheless, the next generation of Americans forgot about the depression and the value that permanent life insurance had played in their parents' survival. Even with insurance strategies that significantly increased investor returns, financial advisors focussed on their personal AUM continued to treat it like a red-headed stepchild. As you may know, I am an advocate of permanent life insurance, specifically overfunded type policies such as Wealth Formula Banking and Wealth Accelerator. They have been a source of profitability and stability for me. Even in times like now where my portfolio has taken such a beating, I can count on the insurance portion of my net worth. As I thought about that last week, I decided to bring it back on your radar so I invited our insurance partners back to the show. If you haven't yet secured permanent life insurance as part of your portfolio, you will want to make sure you listen to this week's episode of Wealth Formula Podcast.

With rising interest rates, I keep getting questions about whether value-add real estate is dead. The answer to that question is a firm no. Remember, people have made money and lost money in all kinds of interest rate and cap rate environments. The interest rates we have right now aren't even close to the highest they have been in the United States. So why is there so much distress in the real estate market and all other correlated markets then? The biggest problem that the Fed has created for us is that they did not react to inflation fast enough and so it got out of hand. They ended up having to play catch up and raise rates at the highest slope in American history. All markets hate instability and extremely rapid rising rates wreak havoc on all of those markets that we typically rely on for investments including real estate and equities. This is particularly problematic for floating rate scenarios and for businesses that need liquidity. Banks don't like to lend when rates are moving up quickly. The truth is that I don't know anyone who hasn't lost money during this period of time—whether that be in real estate or stocks. That doesn't mean it feels good although misery does love company. The key, as I will continue to emphasize, is to be prepared to mentally cut against the grain of fear. Investing money while you are down is extremely counter-intuitive to the human psyche. Fear is designed to protect us. If you were running from a lion, you wouldn't be inclined at that moment to consider how you might avoid running into one in the future. You would be focused on the danger at hand. That reaction of focusing only on the danger might be useful in the wild. But when it comes to investing, it could prevent you from keeping your eyes out for great opportunities. While they might not be here yet, be prepared mentally. These are the times when investors with ice in their blood make a lot of money. Use this time to get the rest of your house in order. Get your asset protection and estate planning in place. Start learning about other sectors. The truth is that there is almost always something to invest in if you know how. How about tech? How much do you know about artificial intelligence? Probably not much. I don't either. But it's clear that this is going to be life-changing technology for better or worse so maybe we can make money off of it. Today, we are going to spend some time talking to an expert in artificial intelligence. I urge you to listen to this episode. I learned a great deal and it opened my eyes to its potential. Listen HERE

This week's Wealth Formula Podcast features me trying to answer your questions. Make sure to tune in as I try to answer questions about interest rates, the state of value add real estate and Central Bank Distributed Coins! Listen HERE

Joe Biden says the economy is "strong as hell" but he's wrong. Interest rates increasing at the steepest slope in history over the last year have caused a serious problem for the economy and hell is about to break loose. I'm not the zombie apocalypse type but I have seen some shady-looking dead people walking around with silver dollars in my yard and I am a little concerned. Bankruptcies are up 216 percent on the year, higher than the 2008 crisis and double that during the Covid lockdowns. This is before a recession has even been declared. Banks aren't lending. Much like they did in 2008, they are sitting on bailout money. Not only does this cause bankruptcies but it also keeps healthy companies from thriving. The Federal Reserve has really screwed us and it could take a while before we dig ourselves out of the impending mess. It doesn't help that the current administration appears blind to the problems that we face. We as real estate investors are not immune from the carnage. We rely heavily on debt and those rates have made the markets illiquid and have significantly affected property values. So we need to come to grips that there is a good chance many of us are going to lose some money soon. I know I have already. But it is important to put things in context. The ride up has been fun. Anything people bought and sold between 2009-2021 invariably was a win. But that's not how markets work. Everybody loses sometimes. The key is understanding that to get ahead you have to win more than you lose. That means learning lessons when you lose and also not giving up. In other words, just because you lose some money in this market doesn't mean you don't prepare yourself to take advantage of the same set of facts on the buy side. That would be a mistake. Nothing that happens in the next year is going to kill you. Don't lose sleep over it. This too shall pass. My guest on Wealth Formula Podcast this week has thought and written a great deal about the psychology of investing and retirement. Listen to this interview as it may help you to navigate the headwinds before us.