Relations between India and Maldives seem to have hit a rough patch. First came some controversial remarks from Maldivian politicians on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Lakshadweep visit, prompting a ‘boycott Maldives’ campaign on Indian social media. Then came a joint press communiqué with China, which committed to “elevating strategic cooperation” between Maldives and China. This was followed by remarks from Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu, on his return from China, that although Maldives was a small country, it “won’t be bullied”, that the “Indian Ocean does not belong to any one country”, and that Maldives “is not in anyone’s backyard”.

But for India, the most troubling development is Maldives setting a March 15 deadline – effectively an ultimatum -- to withdraw all its troops from the island nation. What exactly does all this mean for India? Is it purely an effect of Maldives’ domestic politics, with general elections due in March? Or should New Delhi be concerned about a more enduring shift in Maldivian foreign policy?

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