I'm seeing a lot of people on LW saying that they have very short timelines (say, five years or less) until AGI. However, the arguments that I've seen often seem to be just one of the following:

1. "I'm not going to explain but I've thought about this a lot"
2. "People at companies like OpenAI, Anthropic etc. seem to believe this"
3. "Feels intuitive based on the progress we've made so far"

At the same time, it seems like this is not the majority view among ML researchers. The most recent representative expert survey that I'm aware of is the 2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI. It surveyed 2,778 AI researchers who had published peer-reviewed research in the prior year in six top AI venues (NeurIPS, ICML, ICLR, AAAI, IJCAI, JMLR); the median time for a 50% chance of AGI was either in 23 or 92 years, depending on [...]

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