This week, our guest is Greg Lyle, Founder and President of Innovative Research Group. Innovative Research Group is a full-service market research firm with offices in Vancouver and Toronto. The firm has recently done some interesting polling on how Canadians are thinking about energy infrastructure and energy transition. Greg also talked politics, giving us some insight into how Canadians would vote (based on polling) if a federal election were held today.  Here are some of the questions that Peter and Jackie asked Greg: How much do Canadians know about the energy transition? How do they feel it will impact them financially? How do they feel about energy projects in general and near where they live? How important is climate as an issue versus affordability? If a federal election were held now, what political party would win? Do the Conservatives need a credible climate plan for the next election? 

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What Canadians are Thinking About Energy Transition and Politics

Join Peter Tertzakian and Jackie Forrest from the ARC Energy Research Institute as they explore trends that influence the energy business, including financial, political, environmental, technological, social and economic forces.

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Management

Jackie and Peter provide an update on ESG this week on the podcast.  Has the anti-ESG movement started to change companies' reporting and actions?   To answer this question, they reviewed some articles and research that point to the recent loss of momentum and profile for the ESG movement.  There have also been examples of companies exiting sustainability-focused organizations. While sustainability may have peaked in these regards, it is not going away. Companies continue to report on their sustainability performance and set goals for improvement. Mitigating and monitoring the risk associated with ESG-related issues is also important. 

Content Referenced in this Podcast: Nat Bullard's website and 200-page annual slide deck Catalyst w/ Shayle Kann podcast with Nat Bullard: 2024 trends, part 2: ESG, carbon certifications, curtailment, and AI (February 2024) The Wall Street Journal: Diversity goals are disappearing from companies’ annual reports (April 2024) GreenBiz: Microsoft, P&G;, Unilever, and Walmart among 239 companies to miss net-zero deadline (March 2024) Globe and Mail: Emissions standards group roiled by controversy after opening door to offsets (April 2024) Financial Times: Two pension funds quit Mark Carney’s green alliance (September 2022) Bank of America reneged on a commitment to stop financing new coal mines and coal power plants (February 2024) 
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ESG: Trends, Shifts, and Changes

The 2024 Canadian Federal Budget was released on April 16th. This year’s budget is focused on affordability, housing, and spending on social programs such as pharmaceutical care, daycare, and dentist care. 

 Peter and Jackie discuss the budget, including the size of the deficit and the planned increase in capital gains taxes. They also cover energy-related updates from the budget, such as changes to investment tax credit programs (ITCs), adjustments to the green home subsidy, and the announcement of an Indigenous Loan Guarantee Program. They also mention that the Canada Growth Fund, which has pledged $7 billion to carbon markets, now aims to provide more off-the-shelf support for decarbonization projects while continuing to support bespoke opportunities. Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) also plans to collaborate with provinces to improve carbon markets. The budget includes commitments to develop guidelines for investing in green and decarbonization projects (called a taxonomy); it also encourages Canadian pension funds to invest more in Canada, with a working group set up to explore this further. 

  Content referenced in this episode: 

Canada Budget 2024   RBC Report on if Canada's AAA credit rating is at riskTrevor Tombe: Why Raising Capital Gains Taxes Make Sense - Yes, Really (April 17, 2024, The Hub) Senior Business Leaders Support Proposal Asking Pension Funds to Invest More in Canada (March 6, 2024, Globe and Mail) Canada Energy Transition Taxonomy Roadmap (September 2022) by the Sustainable Finance Action Council (SFAC). Note that SFAC has submitted this roadmap, and it is not the official position of the Government of Canada.   Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  

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Unpacking Canada’s Budget 2024

The threat of a wider Middle East war is increasing. Over the past weekend, Iran attacked Israel with missiles and drones in retaliation for Israel’s suspected strike on Iran's embassy in Syria. This week, our guest, Raoul LeBlanc, Vice President, Energy, S&P; Global Commodity Insights, explains why oil prices have increased over the past few months, including the impact of the growing conflict in the Middle East, OPEC+, and US shale oil growth.  Jackie and Peter also asked Raoul about recent research by Prof. Robert Howarth from Cornell University. The paper, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, concludes that US LNG could be comparable to, or even worse than, coal from a GHG emissions perspective when methane leaking is considered. A BNN article reported that Howarth’s paper influenced President Biden’s pause on LNG approvals.   Finally, Raoul explains the drivers for US oil and gas producers' recent mergers and acquisitions (M&A;) and if this trend could come to Canada.  Content referenced in this podcast:  How One Scientist Influenced Biden’s Pause on LNG Approvals (BNN Bloomberg, Feb 29, 2024) The Greenhouse Gas Footprint of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Exported from the United States by Robert W. Howarth, Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University (version is not final and it is currently in a peer review process; original version submitted October 2023, revised version submitted March 2024) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/     Check us out on social media:   X (Twitter): @arcenergyinst 
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Oil and More Turmoil: An Interview with Raoul LeBlanc, S&P Global Commodity Insights

This week on the podcast, our guest is Rebecca Lindland, Senior Director of Industry Data and Insights at Cars Commerce. Cars Commerce has a platform to simplify the next generation of automotive retail, including Cars.com, AccuTrade, Dealer Inspire, and coming soon, Cars Commerce Media Network. 

Rebecca is a highly respected expert in the automotive industry. She shares her views on the rise of plug-in hybrids, the recent headwinds for pure electric cars, and new auto technology. 

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Rebecca: How is the auto industry doing now, and is it generally profitable?  Explain the difference between pure-electric, plug-in hybrid, and traditional hybrids. Why are sales of hybrid vehicles increasing in the US?  Do the new US EPA auto rules for increasing electric technology include hybrids? Is the higher price of plug-in hybrids and pure electric vehicles a barrier to sales? Why are Tesla’s sales slowing? Explain BYD's success in 2023 and if they could come to North America.  Do you think solid-state batteries, if they become available, will increase EV adoption rates? Are self-driving electric cars just delayed, or are they no longer likely?   Other content referenced in this podcast: NYT article from January 2024: “Hybrid Cars Enjoy a Renaissance and All Electric Sales Slow.” Artist of Rebecca’s office car art: Lyn Hiner StudioPlease review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  Check us out on social media:   X (Twitter): @arcenergyinst 
LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute  

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EV Update and The Rise of Hybrids

This week our podcast guest is Rachel Walsh, Environmental Commodities Strategist at BMO Capital Markets.   Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Rachel: Is the hefty Canadian emitter carbon tax starting to impact competitiveness? Is the carbon levy causing industrial emitters to invest in reducing their emissions? Canada and Alberta have introduced incentives to reduce the capital cost of carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects. Are these incentives enough to kick-start the industry? Are the contracts-for-difference that guarantee a carbon price for industrial emitters over a decade or more required for investment in large decarbonization projects? The Canada Growth Fund has set aside about $7 billion for contracts-for-difference; how much carbon do you think that will mitigate? The voluntary markets have struggled with credibility issues; do you expect this will improve and prices will increase? Could strong voluntary markets reduce the risk of investing in Canadian compliance markets since they offer an alternative way to monetize the carbon credits? Content referenced on this podcast:Clean Prosperity CanadaICE has introduced two futures markets for Alberta Carbon Credits: Alberta Emission Offset and Alberta Emission Performance Credits Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  

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What Canadians are Thinking About Energy Transition and Politics

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