Two years ago, I noted that we had clearly entered the era of general intelligence, but that it was "too soon" to expect widespread social impacts.

In those 2 years, AI development has followed the best possible of the 3 paths I suggested (foom/GPT-4-takes-my-job/Slow Takeoff). Returns to scale seem to be delivering a steady ~15 IQ points/year and cutting edge models appear to be largely a compute-intensive project that allows (relatively) safety-conscious leading labs to explore the new frontiers while others reap the benefits with ~1 year delay.

If I had to identify 3 areas where GPT-3.5 was lacking, it would have been:

• reasoning
• modeling the real world
• learning on-the-fly

Of those three, reasoning (o3) is largely solved and we have promising approaches for [...]

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