In AI 2027, one company called OpenBrain dominates the AI race in the US. Looking around at the current state of affairs at the start of 2026, however, there seem to be a few AGI companies jockeying for the lead — and it stands to reason that this will continue through 2027. Below is a scenario exploring a world where this trend does continue. In this scenario, the leading AGI company OpenBrain has two strong competitors, NeuroMorph and Elaris Labs, and going into 2027 they both lag only one month behind OpenBrain in the AI race.

This scenario has one other key difference from AI 2027. In the Slowdown ending of AI 2027, OpenBrain learns that its most capable model, Agent-4, is misaligned, and proceeds to shut it down. We think it is plausible that at this level of capability and misalignment, Agent-4 would not “go down without a fight.” This scenario explores what might happen if Agent-4 were to act differently.

These can be thought of as the two main “independent variables” of the scenario. The rest of the scenario unfolds very differently from AI 2027, but most of the divergence stems from extrapolating what we think would [...]

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Outline:

(03:19) Jan-Apr 2027: A Four-Way Race

(06:23) May-Jun 2027: A Fatal Warning Shot

(08:45) Jul-Aug 2027: Alignment in Elaris and NeuroMorph

(10:56) Sep 2027: An Insider Threat

(13:38) Early Oct 2027: Shifting Alliances

(16:50) Late Oct 2027: The Shutdown of Agent-4

(22:36) Early Nov 2027: Agent-4's Gambit

(28:33) Mid-Late Nov 2027: Rising Tensions

(34:15) Dec 2027: Conflict and Negotiation

(40:21) 2028: A Delicate Balance

(42:58) 2029. and Beyond: The Future

(44:01) Summary

(49:13) Daniel: Thoughts on the Scenario

(50:36) Steven: Main Takeaways

(50:50) Takeaway #1

(53:42) Takeaway #2

(56:23) Takeaway #3

(57:59) Takeaway #4

The original text contained 15 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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