Is the current presidential election lining up along the same lines as the past two Trump referenda with a small number of swing states and an even smaller subset of issues (in 2024: jobs, inflation, immigration, and wars) deciding who will become America’s 47th president?

David Brady and Douglas Rivers, Hoover Institution senior fellows and managers of a tracking poll on the US electorate, discuss what’s different in a contest featuring known (Donald Trump) and lesser known (Kamala Harris) entities, what matters most to independent voters, the odds of one or both chambers of Congress flipping, plus whether Pennsylvania is the “new Florida” as ground zero for deciding presidential outcomes.