Turkey’s high-stakes presidential elections are headed for a run-off. None of the candidates could cross the 50% mark needed to win the presidency in the first round, which took place on May 14. Now the incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) will face each other once again on May 28.

In the elections held last Sunday, Erdogan confounded pollsters – who had given the edge to Kilicdaroglu – by winning 49.51% of the vote, while Kilicdaroglu finished with 44.89%. The third candidate, Sinan Ogan of the right-wing nationalist ATA Alliance, secured 5.17% of the vote. He could play kingmaker ahead of the run-off. Meanwhile, in the Parliamentary polls, which also happened simultaneously, Erdogan’s party, the AKP secured a majority for its alliance with 266 seats, while the CHP managed 166 seats in the 600-member House.

Who is the favourite as the country heads for the run-off? Who is the kingmaker Ogan likely to back? And how did Erdogan, despite public anger over his regime’s inept response to the February earthquake and a worsening cost-of-living crisis, manage to do so well? 

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