LessWrong (30+ Karma)

“Why Can’t We Hypothesize After the Fact?” by David Udell


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When you have put a lot of ideas together to make an elaborate theory, you want to make sure, when explaining what it fits, that those things it fits are not just the things that gave you the idea for the theory; but that the finished theory makes something else come out right, in addition.

—Richard Feynman, "Cargo Cult Science"

Science as Not Trusting Yourself?

The first question I had when I learned the scientific algorithm in school was:

Why do we want to first hypothesize and only then collect data to test? Surely, the other way around—having all the data at hand first—would be more helpful than having only some of the data.

Later on, the reply I would end up giving out to this question was:

It's a matter of "epistemic discipline." As scientists, we don't really trust each other very much; I, and you, need your [...]

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Outline:

(00:27) Science as Not Trusting Yourself?

(02:07) A Counting Argument About Science

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First published:

February 26th, 2025

Source:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DiLX6CTS3CtDpsfrK/why-can-t-we-hypothesize-after-the-fact

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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