Is our criminal justice system broken, and can it be fixed? Jennifer Doleac is an economist, the executive vice president of criminal justice at Arnold Ventures, and the host of the Probable Causation podcast. Today she discusses her new book, The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice. Doleac studies what actually deters crime and what merely feels tough, and she argues that the familiar divide between “root causes” and “lock them up” misses the point. She explains why longer prison sentences often fail to change behavior, why the certainty and swiftness of punishment matters more than the severity, and how economists think about incentives and unintended consequences.

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