In episode 489, we examine three factors that contributed to this week's big stock market declines, analyze whether a recession is imminent, and review David's recent portfolio changes.

Topics covered include:

• The benefits of looking at market and economic trends monthly
• How bad was the recent U.S. employment report and what is the Sahm Rule
• What are leading economic indicators saying about recession risk
• Why the Federal Reserve will be lowering its policy rate, leading to lower cash yields
• Why the Japanese yen strengthened, leading to market turmoil
• Why investors are rotating from large cap growth to small cap value stocks
• How David locked in higher yields

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Show Notes

Transcript of Chair Powell’s FOMC Press Conference July 31, 2024—The Federal Reserve

Goolsbee Says Fed Won’t Overreact to One Month’s Data by Catarina Saraiva and Ananya Chag—Bloomberg

Congressional Budget Office Updates Baseline: Deficit Spending is 27 Percent Higher Than Previously Estimated—U.S. House Budget Committee

Investments Mentioned

Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG)

Vanguard Small Cap Value (VBR)

iShares International Developed Small Cap Value Factor ETF (ISVL)

Invesco BulletShares 2031 Corporate Bond ETF (BSCV)

iShares Large Cap Max Buffer ETF (MAXJ)

BlackRock AAA CLO ETF (CLOA)

Related Episodes

485: Should You Invest in Defined Outcome (Buffer) ETFs?

476: Is Small Cap Dead? Why You Shouldn’t Abandon Small Company Stocks

472: Is the Economy as Bad as People Think?

464: More Ways to Lock in Higher Yields in Case Interest Rates Fall

463: How to Lock in Higher Yields in Case Interest Rates Fall

423: A “Safe” 6% Yield: The Case for Investment Grade CLOs

302: Investing is Not Knowing

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