Thanks to Jesse Richardson for discussion.

Polymarket asks: will Jesus Christ return in 2025?

In the three days since the market opened, traders have wagered over $100,000 on this question. The market traded as high as 5%, and is now stably trading at 3%. Right now, if you wanted to, you could place a bet that Jesus Christ will not return this year, and earn over $13,000 if you're right.

There are two mysteries here: an easy one, and a harder one.

The easy mystery is: if people are willing to bet $13,000 on "Yes", why isn't anyone taking them up?

The answer is that, if you wanted to do that, you'd have to put down over $1 million of your own money, locking it up inside Polymarket through the end of the year. At the end of that year, you'd get 1% returns on your investment. [...]

The original text contained 4 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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