LessWrong (30+ Karma)

“Will Jesus Christ return in an election year?” by Eric Neyman


Listen Later

Thanks to Jesse Richardson for discussion.

Polymarket asks: will Jesus Christ return in 2025?

In the three days since the market opened, traders have wagered over $100,000 on this question. The market traded as high as 5%, and is now stably trading at 3%. Right now, if you wanted to, you could place a bet that Jesus Christ will not return this year, and earn over $13,000 if you're right.

There are two mysteries here: an easy one, and a harder one.

The easy mystery is: if people are willing to bet $13,000 on "Yes", why isn't anyone taking them up?

The answer is that, if you wanted to do that, you'd have to put down over $1 million of your own money, locking it up inside Polymarket through the end of the year. At the end of that year, you'd get 1% returns on your investment. [...]

The original text contained 4 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

---

First published:

March 24th, 2025

Source:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LBC2TnHK8cZAimdWF/will-jesus-christ-return-in-an-election-year

---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

---

Images from the article:

Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

...more
View all episodesView all episodes
Download on the App Store

LessWrong (30+ Karma)By LessWrong


More shows like LessWrong (30+ Karma)

View all
Making Sense with Sam Harris by Sam Harris

Making Sense with Sam Harris

26,354 Listeners

Conversations with Tyler by Mercatus Center at George Mason University

Conversations with Tyler

2,455 Listeners

The Peter Attia Drive by Peter Attia, MD

The Peter Attia Drive

8,498 Listeners

Sean Carroll's Mindscape: Science, Society, Philosophy, Culture, Arts, and Ideas by Sean Carroll | Wondery

Sean Carroll's Mindscape: Science, Society, Philosophy, Culture, Arts, and Ideas

4,167 Listeners

ManifoldOne by Steve Hsu

ManifoldOne

95 Listeners

Your Undivided Attention by The Center for Humane Technology, Tristan Harris, Daniel Barcay and Aza Raskin

Your Undivided Attention

1,614 Listeners

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg by All-In Podcast, LLC

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

9,997 Listeners

Machine Learning Street Talk (MLST) by Machine Learning Street Talk (MLST)

Machine Learning Street Talk (MLST)

95 Listeners

Dwarkesh Podcast by Dwarkesh Patel

Dwarkesh Podcast

519 Listeners

Hard Fork by The New York Times

Hard Fork

5,522 Listeners

The Ezra Klein Show by New York Times Opinion

The Ezra Klein Show

15,815 Listeners

Moonshots with Peter Diamandis by PHD Ventures

Moonshots with Peter Diamandis

555 Listeners

No Priors: Artificial Intelligence | Technology | Startups by Conviction

No Priors: Artificial Intelligence | Technology | Startups

129 Listeners

Latent Space: The AI Engineer Podcast by swyx + Alessio

Latent Space: The AI Engineer Podcast

92 Listeners

BG2Pod with Brad Gerstner and Bill Gurley by BG2Pod

BG2Pod with Brad Gerstner and Bill Gurley

473 Listeners