I adore admitting that I am wrong. Today, I get to say it again.

I was wrong about Putin.
I saw him as an extremely shrewd, nimble, and intelligent leader who will do what he thinks is best for Russia.

Therefore, I didn't think he'd attack Ukraine because it's too big of a gamble.
I was wrong.

Putin is way smarter than me, so maybe it'll work out for Russia, but that seems farfetched.
But completely invading Ukraine also seemed farfetched.
Donald Trump winning the 2016 election certainly appeared farfetched.

I analyze Ukraine in 2022.

Watch this podcast on YouTube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gx8NQTdwsOU

Timestamps
Timestamps

00:00 I was wrong!
00:49 Putin has changed
02:00 Shrewd Putin
02:45 Trump analogy
03:30 Wrong about Ukraine's ability to defend itself
04:40 Truth is the first casualty of war
07:07 Switzerland's telling move
08:20 What if Putin wins?
09:42 Where would Putin attack next?
11:30 Will Putin use nukes?
13:30 Conclusion

 

Bitcoin

I feel for the refugees who had to leave in a hurry.
This is yet another case for #Bitcoin.
It's the best asset that you can carry with you anywhere without fear of it being confiscated.
With a tiny hardware wallet, you can run away with $100 million.
By memorizing 24 words, you can carry $1 billion in your head.
Nobody can freeze or confiscate cryptocurrency like all other assets.

It's times like these when I'm grateful to be in a forgotten, backwater country like Mauritania.

So what's next for Russia?

If Russia manages to "control" Ukraine, Russia will regret doing that, like the USA regrets controlling Afghanistan and Iraq.
They were pyrrhic victories.

Only 17% of Ukraine is ethnically Russian.
Therefore, Ukrainians will always demonstrate their displeasure of being ruled by the minority.
Ukrainians will never be brainwashed into believing that they are Russians just like the United States could never convince Canadians that they are Yanks.

I doubt that they will expand further.
If they did, they would take over a Central Asian nation, like Kazakhstan.
But they won't dare to go west, into the Baltic, since they are NATO countries.

On the other hand, black swan events happen and I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong in the future.

What do you think will happen next?

 

 

 

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