Simon Shares

• Renergen* (JSE code: REN) finally gets phase 1 helium flowing.
• ArcelorMittal (JSE code: ACL) update, everything they warned about went wrong.
• MPC Thursday (26 January) and FOMC Wednesday (1 February). Raising 0.25% each.

Stocks making money from load shedding

• Reunert (JSE code: RLO). High voltage cables and circuit breakers.
• Mustek (JSE code: MST). Green energy division.
• Famous Brands (JSE code: FBR). Lights out need food.
• Mahube Infrastructure (JSE code: MHB). Wind and solar operations paying a dividend (DY ±13.5%) and trading below NAV.
• Kibo Energy (JSE code: KBO). Are they a going concern? They issued shares to pay a £19,635.44 invoice.

This is well worth a listen, some important data points from @StefMarani that help understands the road ahead .. https://t.co/6CGNRd6QUe

— Simon Brown (@SimonPB) January 24, 2023

 

@simonbrown_za ArcelorMittal SA horror update as the second half was loss making #investing #share #jse ♬ original sound - SimonBrown

 

* I hold ungeared positions.

 

Simon Shares

• Top40 is all about China. Economic data from China for 2022 released this week was weak, but better than expected.

Which food retailer offers the best value?

Food inflation is still high, 12.7% YonY for December.

But likely peaked (good rains, diesel lower and reducing input costs)

Preferred food retailer?

• Always Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP). But expensive, forward PE 19.5x
• Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK). Forward PE 20.5x and not as good as Shoprite.
• Woolies* (JSE code: WHL). Exited disaster that is Australia. Forward PE 15x and if they can also fix clothing, real winner.
• Spar (JSE code: SPP). CEO and chair exiting after bad press recently. Poland issues but forward PE 10x.

* I hold ungeared positions.

 

Now for the tenth year in a row, we kick off the new year with a prediction show.

Marc Ashton, Keith McLachlan and Simon Brown put their heads on the block with three wild and woolly predictions for the markets for 2023 followed by a call on the Top40 and ZAR for the year ahead.

Importantly we start each show with a review of the previous year’s predictions and you’ll find the 2022 predictions show here.

 

I've been buying some Zeda on the JSE.

- Here's why

- A bit about the business

- Risks

- Possible target price

Oil below US$ 80, the first time this year.

• • OPEC+ made no production changes.
  • EU price cap on Russian oil. Done via insurance, but will it work and if it does will oil not move higher?

Simon Shares

• Nampak (JSE code: NPK) results and book build. Worth a speculative punt after the rights issue is done?
• Solid Sygnia (JSE code: SYG) results and strong dividend.
• RMI becomes Outsurance on the JSE, code OUT.
• China zero-covid.
• Local GDP, better than expected.
• Worst ETFs of 2022
• Position your portfolio for 2023

 

Simon Shares

• MPC upped rates 0.75% with more expected in the new year.
• Solid City Lodge* (JSE code: CLH) update with November occupancies at 60%.
• Rand below R17/US$ and more strength expected.
• Top40 sneaks green for the year after a rough ride.
  • This is why we hold
  • And don't panic
  • Markets recover

Chinese covid-19 cases hitting new records, by a long way.

This has real implications (bad ones) for the global economy as the second largest is going to be struggling in 2023.

 

Chinese covid cases since the start of the pandemic

* I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares

• Renergen* (JSE code: REN) did a small capital raise and the market not liking after they said earlier in November they wouldn't do one.
• Cilo Cybin will not be listed on the JSE. They planned to raise R500million but only got R20.5million. Those who applied will be refunded.
• Local October CPI was 7.6%, up from 7.5% and vs. an expected 7.4%. Expect MPC to do 0.75% and two 0.25% next taking prime to 11%.

Locally 2022 has not been all horror

It feels really bad but the JSE has had a fair year with sen decent winners as the two images below show.

JSE Top40 stocks year-to-date. (winners)

JSE Top40 stocks year-to-date. (losers)

Binance buys FTX.

No, they walk away.

FTX goes bust.

Keep your coins in a hardware wallet, not on the blockchain unless you trading it. I use a Ledger Nano S Plus.

What's the future for crypto with another exchange hitting the wall?

Simon Shares

• Results wrap;
  • Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE)
  • Stor-Age* (JSE code: SSS)
  • Ninety One (JSE code: N91)
  • Transaction Capital (JSE code: TCP)

* I hold ungeared positions.

 

So you bought a stock and it's done good and you're making money, maybe even lots of it.

Now what?

• First, why did you buy it? That'll often help you decide when to sell.
• Second, is it still going up? Have a line in the sand, using charts, at which you sell.
• Third, is the news still all good? Bad news means to sell.

Simon Shares

• US inflation due Thursday, expected is 7.9%.
• Binance buys FTX
• Time for gold?
• Murray & Roberts (JSE code: MUR) sell Clough for very little but get rid of a lot of inter-company debt.
• Leisure stocks looking good, especially the Sun International* (JSE code: SUI) chart.
• "However, due to the immense interest from the public, as well as international investors to date, we decided to extend the period by 2 more weeks. This will allow for the investors that missed the deadline, to be part of this amazing opportunity to own shares in Cilo Cybin Holdings.". Not a good sign.
• Elon Musk sells Tesla (Nasdaq code: TSLA) shares worth US$4billion after saying in April he would sell no more. But this should be enough to keep Twitter afloat for the next year.
• Meta (Nasdaq code: META) to fire 11,000 workers, about 13% of the workforce.

* I hold ungeared positions.

After the results, are any FAANGs worth buying?

FAANGs, a mixed bag with Meta (NASDAQ code: META) the biggest loser.

Is it worth buying or what of the other FAANGs?

Apple (NASDAQ share code: AAPL) and Amazon (NASDAQ code: AMZN) would be my picks. Why buy the losers?

Simon Shares

• RMI, I got confused between RMI and RMH last week. Former is becoming Outsurance.
• Capital & Counties (JSE code: CCO) trading update shows strong leasing activity at Covenant Garden.
• Octodec (JSE code: OCT) results, discout to NAV +50%, dividend yield ±14%.
• Sasol (JSE code: SOL) convertible bond issue essential a back door right issue. Bonds expire in five years and convert into Sasol shares at US$20.3863.
• RSA Retail Savings bonds now offer 11.5% fixed for five years.