Simon Shares

• PGMs are on the move, most notably palladium and rhodium.
• Oil also still moving, remember the ETN for that.
• Cashbuild (JSE code: CSB) update shows the pandemic home improvement boom is over.
• ArcelorMittal South Africa (JSE code: ACL) update sees them into profit and on a PE of under 2x.
• Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) settlement approved, but still lots of debt.

• Lots to be spooked by;
  • FOMC, it's all happening in March
  • Asset purchases are also to end in March, but what of the US$9trillion of bonds the Fed holds?
  • Valuations are high.
  • Rates are rising.
  • Inflation is at decade highs.
• Value winning over growth for the first time in an age.

• 09 February ~ Wealth Creation through Trading and Investing with ThinkMarkets

• BHP Group* (JSE code: BHP) is unifying its dual-listed company (DLC) corporate structure effective close 28 January. This will count as a CGT event for shareholders who will have been deemed to have sold their shares and bought the new ones.
• Microsoft (Nasdaq code: MSFT) is buying Activision-Blizzard for $69 billion, but who's the largest gaming company in the world? Tencent (Hong Kong code: 700).
• German 10-year back above 0%.

• [caption id="attachment_31941" align="aligncenter" width="888"] German 10-year yield[/caption]
• Oil at 7-year highs. There's an ETN for that.

* I hold ungeared positions.

Now for the tenth year in a row, we kick off the new year with a predictions show.

Marc Ashton, Keith McLachlan and Simon Brown put their heads on the block with three wild and woolly predictions for the markets for 2022 followed by a call on the Top40 and ZAR for the year ahead.

Importantly we start each show with a review of the previous year's predictions and you'll find the 2021 predictions show here.

• Back in 2010 the world watched as Greece plunged further and further into a debt crisis with many expecting the EU to not survive. But Angela Merkel saved Greece and the day.

[caption id="attachment_31826" align="aligncenter" width="888"] Greek 10Y bond rates[/caption]

source: tradingeconomics.com

On the 20th September 2021 Chinese property developer missed interest payments on some US$300billion of debt and this spooked markets into a selloff. But three months later nobody cares. What's the background sorry and why does nobody care?

After clogging up the Suez Canal for six days back in March 2021 and halting much of the worlds shipping trade, what happened to Ever Given?

Offshore

/ Strong year of returns globally, CAC40 (France) top index

/ US inflation, not transitory

/ US unemployment looking decent

/ China crackdown

/ Commodities mostly a soft year, the exception is oil

/ Supply chain chaos

Local

/ Good year for local markets

/ Delisitng galore

/ GDP

/ Rand

• Simon has a look back at the winners and losers from the JSE for 2021, year-to-date returns. There certainly are some losers, but mostly it is about winners as the Top40 did 21.5% so far and the top major global index was the Cac40 which returned 29.9%.
• Find the top ETFs here.

Offshore

/ US Labor Nov Nonfarm Payrolls +210K; Consensus +573K, unemployment improved to 4.2%. Fed's target for 'maximum employment' is for unemployment rate of 4.5%.

/ Didi leaving NYSE

/ Google will no longer require workers to return to the office on Jan. 10, delaying the return indefinitely.

/ Dorsey leaves Twitter

/ OPEC+ agrees to January production hikes

Local

/ Implats comes for RBPlats

/ Capital Appreciation results

/ Tharisa results

/ Bidcorp updates

/ Murray & Roberts update

• Bidcorp (JSE code: BID). Strong update, they're coming out of this pandemic much stronger.
• Aspen (JSE code: APN) announces manufacturing deal with Johnson & Johnson (NYSE code: JNJ).
• Implats (JSE code: IMP) wants RBPlats (JSE code: RBP), sorry Northam Platinum (JSE code NPH).
• Powell, Fed chair, says inflation is not transitory.
• Oil under severe pressure, OPEC+ meeting was pushed back to Wednesday.
• New variant, I bought City Lodge* (JSE code: CLH) and Sun International* (JSE code: SUI) on Friday.

I did buy somme leisure on Friday, CLH at 400c and SUI at 2100c .. will see shortly if that was a good idea or not ..#JSE https://t.co/aHKZOIxLbu

— Simon Brown (@SimonPB) November 29, 2021

* I hold ungeared positions.