That does not mean AI will successfully make it all the way to AGI and superintelligence, or that it will make it there soon or on any given time frame.

It does mean that AI progress, while it could easily have been even faster, has still been historically lightning fast. It has exceeded almost all expectations from more than a few years ago. And it means we cannot disregard the possibility of High Weirdness and profound transformation happening within a few years.

GPT-5 had a botched rollout and was only an incremental improvement over o3, o3-Pro and other existing OpenAI models, but was very much on trend and a very large improvement over the original GPT-4. Nor would one disappointing model from one lab have meant that major further progress must be years away.

Imminent AGI (in the central senses in which that term AGI used [...]

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Outline:

(01:47) Why Do I Even Have To Say This?

(04:21) It Might Be Coming

(10:32) A Prediction That Implies AGI Soon

(12:48) GPT-5 Was On Trend

(15:04) The Myths Of Model Equality and Lock-In

(16:28) The Law of Good Enough

(18:05) Floor Versus Ceiling

(21:25) New York Times Platforms Gary Marcus Saying Gary Marcus Things

(28:25) Gary Marcus Does Not Actually Think AGI Is That Non-Imminent

(31:21) Can Versus Will Versus Always, Typical Versus Adversarial

(35:17) Counterpoint

(37:35) 'Superforecasters' Have Reliably Given Unrealistically Slow AI Projections Without Reasonable Justifications

(42:15) What To Expect When You're Expecting AI Progress

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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