Yet Another Value Podcast

Host Andrew Walker delivers his monthly random ramblings for December 2025, reflecting on a decade of "professional public-market investing". Andrew shares a developing thesis on why markets are becoming increasingly strange, drawing parallels to evolution in sports, chess, and technology. He examines how efficiency, quant strategies, leverage, and speculative behavior have reshaped market dynamics. Andrew also walks through several investing beliefs he’s changed his mind on over the past ten years, including valuation metrics, buybacks, real estate, technical analysis, and holding periods. He closes by reflecting on lessons learned from podcast guests, risk-taking, arrogance, and the role of luck versus skill in generating outsized returns.

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[00:00:00] Episode introduction

[00:02:19] Monthly solo rambling format

[00:04:14] Ten-year investing reflection

[00:04:59] Markets growing increasingly strange

[00:05:20] Sports and strategy analogy

[00:06:45] Market efficiency reaching extremes

[00:07:34] Weird situations driving returns

[00:09:38] Changing minds over decade

[00:10:31] Pure valuation metrics questioned

[00:11:36] Buybacks losing importance

[00:13:39] Hidden real estate disappointments

[00:15:13] Technical analysis partial acceptance

[00:16:19] Rethinking long-term holding

[00:18:25] Three-year reevaluation rule

[00:19:31] Risk management maturation

[00:22:12] Podcast shaping investor thinking

[00:24:14] Luck versus skill debate

[00:26:31] Media deal commentary critique[

00:28:45] Looking ahead next decade

[00:29:38] Holiday wishes and closing

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Christian Olesen of Olesen Value Funds discusses the opportunities in UK homebuilders. The discussion centers on why the UK equity market remains deeply out of favor and how this pessimism has created compelling value in residential developers. Christian outlines the cyclical dynamics driving depressed demand, explains why Bellway stands out among peers, and explores balance sheet strength, land valuation, and downside protection. The conversation also addresses macro concerns around the UK economy, housing affordability, planning regulations, and management incentives. __________________________________________________________

[00:00:00] Episode and guest introduction

[00:03:26] UK market deeply discounted

[00:05:13] Cyclical demand collapse explained

[00:08:20] Bellway valuation framework

[00:11:47] UK macro risk debate

[00:15:09] Domestic investor pessimism

[00:17:37] Quantitative versus qualitative thesis

[00:21:15] Land write-down risk discussion

[00:26:58] Bellway versus peers

[00:30:41] Management incentives concerns

[00:32:43] Capital allocation changes

[00:38:53] American investor influence

[00:41:08] Alternatives within UK market

[00:45:23] Planning reform tailwinds

[00:46:58] Supply constraints implications

[00:49:35] Risk-reward summary

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Hugo Navarro of Undervalued and Undercovered discusses NCR Atlas (NATL), a company operating at the intersection of legacy cash infrastructure and modern outsourcing economics. The conversation centers on whether ATMs represent a declining business or a misunderstood opportunity, unpacking NCR Atlas’s valuation, free cash flow profile, and competitive positioning within a duopoly market. Hugo outlines the company’s ATM-as-a-service strategy, highlighting scale advantages, incremental margins, and incentives for banks to outsource servicing.

See Hugo's NATL write up here: https://smallcaptreasures.substack.com/p/a-127-fcf-yielding-duopoly-growing?utm_source=publication-search

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[00:00:00] Podcast and guest introduction

[00:04:01] NCR Atlas business overview

[00:05:27] Why valuation appears cheap

[00:07:05] Cash usage decline debate

[00:12:55] ATM-as-a-service thesis

[00:16:54] ATM replacement cycle explained

[00:19:15] Industry scale and servicing

[00:20:56] Why banks outsource ATMs

[00:24:07] Incremental margin economics

[00:26:37] Long-term ATM demand risks

[00:35:51] Declining industry outsourcing logic

[00:38:34] Free cash flow drivers

[00:41:11] Share gains from banks

[00:47:36] Accounting and governance concerns

[00:53:22] Diebold competitive comparison

[00:56:04] Tariffs and guidance outlook

[00:57:33] Interest rate sensitivity

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

A wide-ranging conversation with Lead Edge Capital's Evan Skorpen talking about applying a concentrated, long-term strategy to growth tech investing. Key topics include capital allocation, executive incentives, and investing in "air pockets."

[00:00:00] Podcast and guest introduction

[00:02:59] Lead Edge strategy overview

[00:07:16] AI’s impact on software

[00:13:32] How CEOs react to markets

[00:24:29] Investor days and messaging

[00:30:40] Remitly’s capital allocation shift

[00:36:09] Importance of long-term KPIs

[00:44:07] Aligning shareholder and board goals

[00:46:37] Incentives and externalities discussed

[00:51:17] M&A risk versus growth

[00:57:49] Lead Edge’s unique investing edge

[01:01:53] AI risk to software moats

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

David Thomas, author of The Fairfax Way (amazon link: https://amzn.to/4adQ7JS), comes on the podcast for a wide-ranging podcast on Fairfax, including the company's origins, macro wins, missteps in insurance, and what the future looks like for Fairfax as Prem approaches his 80s.

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[00:00:00] Andrew returns with David Thomas

[00:02:31] David’s background in business journalism

[00:06:25] Fairfax’s long-term investment returns

[00:08:16] Evolution of investment and insurance strategy

[00:13:01] Fairfax’s stock picking and equity style

[00:16:39] Inflation themes in stock selection

[00:20:32] BlackBerry investment strategy and challenges

[00:24:14] Macro success: shorting housing and tech

[00:29:20] 2010–2016 bearish misstep reflection

[00:35:12] Politics influence on macro decisions

[00:36:56] Prem’s current macro outlook

[00:40:55] Discussion of Fairfax valuation

[00:41:34] Book value and buyback logic

[00:44:28] Overview of the short seller campaign

[00:49:04] Perspective on Fairfax's hedge fund lawsuit[00:51:14] Succession planning at Fairfax

[00:53:44] Stability of all business segments

[00:57:45] 15% target: still realistic?

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Host Andrew Walker delivers his November ramblings with four key themes. He kicks things off with a story about craps in Vegas to illustrate how early wins in investing can falsely reinforce flawed strategies. Andrew also explores the mental traps of buying stocks he initially passed on, offers cautious commentary on shorting the so-called "AI bubble," and reflects on why trusting management projections and NAV estimates often ends in disappointment. With a new baby on the way, Andrew signs off with personal updates and an open invitation for listeners to reach out and discuss these topics further.

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[00:00:00] Podcast intro and disclaimer

[00:02:05] Wins lure into false security

[00:12:45] Passed stocks drop, then buy

[00:20:00] Shorting AI bubble discussed

[00:26:20] Trusting management and NAV

[00:28:40] Final thoughts and baby update

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

On the heels of sending an open letter to the Golden Entertainment's (GDEN; disclosure: long) board, host Andrew Walker dives deeper into Golden's take private deal and why he believes it transfers ~$300m of value from minority shareholders to insiders.

Open letter to GDEN board: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/an-open-letter-to-the-golden-entertainment

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[00:00:02] Intro to special episode

[00:03:26] Comparison to Louvre heist

[00:04:20] Smoking guns and IR site change

[00:07:35] Sale leaseback structure details

[00:09:15] Valuation analysis and critique

[00:13:30] Everbay letter and valuation math

[00:16:45] Management buyout vs. fair value

[00:19:00] Critique of go-shop process

[00:21:10] Regulatory hurdles for go-shop

[00:23:40] Call for fair deal structure

[00:24:50] Closing thoughts and disclaimer

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Chadd Garcia joins the five timers club and talks about his investment thesis for WaterBridge (WBI). WaterBridge is a recent IPO that manages water from oil drilling, largely in the Permian Basin. Chadd's spent a lot of time on oil services and infrastructure, and he breaks down how this investment relates to prior investments in LandBridge, Texas Pacific, and Secure. He also talks about the opportunity for growth and pricing power at WaterBridge.

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[00:00:00] Podcast intro and Chad returns

[00:02:24] WaterBridge’s core operations explained

[00:04:41] Pipelines and disposal network details

[00:06:03] Missed waste parallels in analysis

[00:10:52] Valuation setup and contract pricing

[00:13:04] 2025 EBITDA forecast discussed

[00:14:45] Scalability from current infrastructure

[00:15:37] Infrastructure ROICs and economics

[00:17:33] Land ownership and strategic value

[00:19:05] WaterBridge vs. LandBridge relationship

[00:22:25] Why Devon partners with WaterBridge

[00:27:35] Sponsor structure and conflict resolution

[00:29:30] Regulatory risk and permitting update

[00:33:39] Permian basin long-term outlook

[00:35:10] Increasing water cuts impact volumes

[00:36:41] Oil price sensitivity and volume trends

[00:38:03] Organic growth via MVC contracts

[00:39:11] Maintenance capex benchmarking

[00:41:40] Capital allocation and future returns

[00:42:31] Waste comps and multiple discussion

[00:45:49] Terminal value and ROIC comparisons

[00:47:57] Key risks: spills and short reports

[00:49:12] Environmental downside vs. oil spills

[00:51:25] Short reports and perceived conflicts

[00:52:21] Why WaterBridge and LandBridge are separate

[00:53:08] Investor day importance and growth

[00:54:10] Chad’s visibility helps spread thesis

[00:56:54] Housing workers for Texas data center boom

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Andrei Stetsenko from Gymkhana Partners explores the investment case for Indian holdcos in general and Maharashtra Scooters in particular. Andrei outlines why he isn't just looking for a discount to NAV; he talks about how he breaks down the underlying NAV and incentives of the key players when assessing an Indian holdco, and how he believes the control of the Bajaj Group can create long term value.

Gymkhana Partners website: www.gymkhanapartners.com

Gymkhana's Q3 letter: https://www.gymkhanapartners.com/investor-letters/gymkhana-partners-q3-2025-quarterly-letter

Post on financialization of Indian savings: https://www.gymkhanapartners.com/dispatches/the-equitization-of-indian-savings

Doug's Alphasense webinar: ______________________________________________________________________

[00:00:00] Podcast and guest introduction

[00:02:57] Indian holdcos and Bajaj group

[00:05:47] Maharashtra Scooter NAV breakdown

[00:06:45] Growth prospects in Bajaj firms

[00:09:03] Insurance and lending discipline

[00:12:45] Risks of investing abroad

[00:15:25] India research and diligence

[00:17:03] India-dedicated fund strategy

[00:19:08] India’s economic transformation

[00:22:20] Attractive Indian holdcos overview

[00:25:36] Holdco incentive and structure

[00:28:50] SEBI reforms and catalysts

[00:29:41] Parallels with Japan’s reforms

[00:32:58] Professionalization and buyback signs

[00:33:46] Shareholder alignment and liquidity

[00:36:48] Family dynamics and governance

[00:39:23] NAV reliability and fundamentals

[00:42:03] Buybacks, dividends, and hurdles

[00:43:59] Governance: India vs US

[00:47:06] Potential unlock mechanisms

[00:49:56] Past performance and future growth

[00:52:33] Closing thoughts and blog posts

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Doug O’Loughlin of Fabricated Knowledge and SemiAnalysis returns to the podcast in to dive into all things AI, Power, and Corporate Governance. On the AI side, they discuss where we are in the cycle, if AI is a bubble, and what will drive the next leg of growth. On the corporate governance side, they discuss using signals like off-cycle PSU grants to reflexive incentive structures to find investments, as well as diving into some topical examples. (PS- Doug’s last appearance was podcast #166 on AppLovin $APP, which doubles as the best performing pitch in YAVP history).

Links

• Doug's AppLovin $APP podcast appearance
• Doug's Webinar with AlphaSense
• Fabricatated Knowledge:

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[00:00:00] Podcast intro and Doug’s background

[00:02:36] AI sector partying vs. value sadness

[00:04:06] AI’s capital cycle and bubble setup

[00:07:04] Oracle’s shift to debt-fueled capex

[00:09:45] Why capital intensity changes multiples

[00:11:48] TPU vs. Nvidia: a real challenger

[00:13:07] Google’s evolving TPU go-to-market

[00:16:02] AI scaling walls and RL progress

[00:18:24] Reinforcement learning and Dota AI

[00:20:15] Token economics and GPU monetization

[00:22:02] OpenAI, profitability, and token resale

[00:24:00] AI’s deflationary impact and services

[00:26:51] Revisiting the power bottleneck thesis

[00:27:44] Power grid constraints and worker shortages

[00:31:33] Industrials benefiting from AI buildout

[00:32:22] Generalist vs. specialist investor gaps

[00:33:47] Specialist traps in relative valuation

[00:36:36] Doug’s obsession with board behavior

[00:38:19] Do boards game investors with PSUs?

[00:41:12] Reflexive incentives at Broadcom example

[00:42:17] Mimification and pump incentives at Opendoor

[00:44:46] Performance incentives vs. job requirements

[00:46:19] Biotech boards failing shareholder alignment

[00:46:42] PSU timing around Target Hospitality’s drop

[00:52:09] ICE contracts and bed shortage opportunity

[00:56:54] Housing workers for Texas data center boom

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer