All investing involves risk, but sometimes investors get up in technical definitions that miss the forest for the trees.
There is a more technical definition of risk: In financial terms, it’s the chance that an outcome or investment result will differ from an expected outcome or return
We would challenge much of this definition of risk. Risk is not falling short of a benchmark for six months, a year, or even a couple of years.
- Risk is falling short of your goals.
Defining risk is an important part of the financial planning process
- No two clients at our firm are alike. They have very different needs based on their individual circumstances and what they want to accomplish
- Many have worked hard, saved, and done well in the markets, and are looking for self-sustaining wealth
- Others want to get to the point where they have discretionary wealth — the ability to freely enjoy what they’ve accumulated
So, planning needs to begin with defining your goals and then wrapping a thoughtfully constructed investment strategy around a plan to increase the odds of success while minimizing potential risks.
- We defined risk tolerance at the top of the show (that is, the level of assumed risk that is comfortable for an investor). But there are nuances.
- Risk tolerance is the amount of risk that you must take in order to reach your personal goals, which are based on your unique situation. But this needs to be balanced against another concept: risk capacity.
- Risk capacity measures how much risk you can afford to take.
Four major external risks that you need to factor into your planning process:
- Longevity
- Inflation
- Market returns
- Tax policy