It has been two months since the start of the Iran War and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery carrying 20% of the world’s oil and 40% of Malaysia’s crude imports. Despite early optimistic projections of a four-week resolution, the deadlock has entered its ninth week, with global supply losses reaching 1 billion barrels.

So, is this still just a "temporary shock"?

Brian Coulton, Chief Economist at Fitch Ratings, joins The Breakfast Grille to audit the growing stagflation threat, a toxic mix of rising prices and falling output. We explore why Asia is uniquely exposed as a net oil importer, why equity markets are dangerously disconnected from energy realities, and why the "fragile" global job market is the real trigger for a 2026 recession.

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