Cannabis Investing Network

#25 - Big Predictions for 2020 Cannabis Investing


Listen Later

In this episode we make some predictions for what is to come in 2020 for cannabis investing. In this episode:


1. "The Great Divide" - Winners & Losers Emerge

- Mentality will shift: sector will stop moving as one and winners will emerge

- Shifting from ETF mentality to stock picking (from passive to active)

- Example: Trulieve should separate from the pack given their isolation in Florida and strong financial performance

- Losers will lose HARD while winners will distinguish themselves

2. Predicting Sales for Canada in 2020

- The $3B sales bet...under or over?

- Major catalyst for 2020 sales with Cannabis 2.0 and Ontario store increases

- Will be a slow rollout for both, so the ramp will be gradual

- Many unknowns still to be seen (like how Beverages sell)

- Still a short list of winners in Canada who will be in a better position in 2021

3. The US & Canada - The Separation Begins

- US will begin to outperform Canada 

- Illinois and Michigan will prove to be very strong markets with a strong ramp in 2020 but will really shine in 2021

- Data and results will drive investors to invest in the US in 2020

- 280E Taxation remains the biggest issue US operators will face

- Big States which may go Rec: Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Arizona (I mentioned Florida but their initiative is now dead)

- New Jersey seems the most likely and represents a very lucrative market ("Florida 2.0")

- Mexico story looks promising, Europe story is less attractive 

- CORRECTION: MediPharm did NOT get their EU GMP certification yet, they got their Australian GMP

4. Rough Patch Ahead - Be Careful!

- Capital crunch has turned into a capital crisis - very difficult to raise funds

- Very few companies have gone under despite being very close to it

- Circle the Drain Financing: Desperate companies will take crappy deals to try to save the ship

- Some companies will turn it around, others won't

- Bankruptcies will cause a domino effect and pull many others down with it

- Ramp up of sales in Canada will be slow and won't be fully realized until H2 2021

- The general cannabis market will get punished as this occurs

- There is no bottom for crappy companies! Some will go to zero! Especially those low on cash and burning fast

- The companies who survive will come out stronger and better positioned

5. M&A From Unlikely Sources

- Companies will look to merge to survive...but cash is king!

- Potential for non-cannabis companies with cash on balance sheet combining with struggling cannabis companies

6. Up & Downs Continue

- Things will not go straight up or down. Volatility will continue

- FOMO is dead. Be patient, be picky and take profits!

- No federal legalization in US in 2020 but 2-3 major states to go rec

QUESTION: What are your predictions? Email us!



...more
View all episodesView all episodes
Download on the App Store

Cannabis Investing NetworkBy CIN Podcast

  • 4.6
  • 4.6
  • 4.6
  • 4.6
  • 4.6

4.6

67 ratings


More shows like Cannabis Investing Network

View all
We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network by The Investor's Podcast Network

We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network

3,383 Listeners

Macro Voices by Hedge Fund Manager Erik Townsend

Macro Voices

3,074 Listeners

The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing by The Idea Farm

The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing

931 Listeners

Mining Stock Daily by Trevor Hall

Mining Stock Daily

95 Listeners

Chit Chat Stocks by Chit Chat Stocks

Chit Chat Stocks

195 Listeners

Excess Returns by Excess Returns

Excess Returns

81 Listeners

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg by All-In Podcast, LLC

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

9,812 Listeners

Dwarkesh Podcast by Dwarkesh Patel

Dwarkesh Podcast

484 Listeners

The Business Brew by Bill Brewster

The Business Brew

249 Listeners

Business Breakdowns by Colossus | Investing & Business Podcasts

Business Breakdowns

350 Listeners

The Dime by Bryan Fields & Kellan Finney

The Dime

107 Listeners

The Dales Report | Trade to Black by Dales Media Group

The Dales Report | Trade to Black

7 Listeners

Higher Exchanges by Higher Exchanges

Higher Exchanges

13 Listeners

Long Term Investing - With Baskin Wealth Management by Barry Schwartz

Long Term Investing - With Baskin Wealth Management

6 Listeners

The Real Eisman Playbook by Steve Eisman

The Real Eisman Playbook

135 Listeners