More at https://www.philosophytalk.org/shows/optimism-rational.

When the odds are against you, believing in yourself can be a source of strength—but it seems to require a cavalier disregard for the evidence. So is optimism a rational way to improve your life, or an irrational kind of wishful thinking? Will hope now just lead to disappointment later? Where should we set our expectations, and where should we teach our children to set theirs? Josh and Ray tackle their hopes and fears with Jennifer Morton from the University of Pennsylvania, author of "Moving Up without Losing Your Way: The Ethical Costs of Upward Mobility."