Above Avalon

Episode 70 takes a closer look at how expectations guide Wall Street. We discuss AAPL's transformation from a growth stock to a value stock, focusing on the contributing factors that led to the reset. We then discuss the framework underpinning Wall Street's expectations game and how management teams have a better chance at succeeding in the game. We conclude with implications resulting from Apple becoming a value stock. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Apple's ambition in music continues to be misunderstood. In episode 69, we look at Apple's overall plan to own the entire music industry. We begin with a brief history of Apple's involvement in music over the past 15 years in order to understand management's current motivation. The episode then goes over the four steps required to grab mindshare in the music industry in order to eventually be in a position of power. Apple will look to leverage its balance sheet to capture music streaming revenue share. We then discuss some of the headwinds and risks Apple faces with music, and this is followed by a brief discussion of why Apple is so interested in music in the first place. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com/membership.

In episode 68, we take a closer look at the Apple Watch business. After going over my estimates for Apple Watch revenue and unit sales since launch in April 2015, we discuss how much the Apple Watch business would currently be worth if it were a stand-alone company. It turns out that the Apple Watch is actually a paradox. Expectations seemed to fall off a cliff heading into WWDC despite several positive signs. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com/membership.

This week's episode is focused on what will come after the iPhone. Using clues found throughout Apple's WWDC keynote, we discuss what this post-iPhone product era will look like and its driving forces. This new Apple Experience era will be a new chapter for Apple in which consumers are given the option to personalize their computing experience like never before. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com/membership.

I am back from San Francisco, and Episode 66 is dedicated to Apple's WWDC keynote. We discuss the five most interesting items from the keynote that are still at the top of my mind days after the event. These five items are a mix of new features, products, and ideas that help to show where Apple is headed in terms of both software and hardware. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com/membership.

As I get ready to fly out to San Francisco to attend Apple's WWDC keynote, this episode begins with a quick business update about Above Avalon and my recent first year anniversary of launching Above Avalon memberships. We then move to WWDC and an unusual kind of preview. We go over the backdrop of this year's developer conference and compare things to last year's conference. The episode concludes with a look at why many peers no longer envy Apple's business model and what it may mean for Apple's software and service ambitions. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com/membership.

In this episode, we take a closer look at how Apple's M&A strategy is evolving. After analyzing 19 years of Apple M&A transactions, a number of patterns become visible. Apple M&A is closely related to Apple's functional organizational structure as both place the product above all else. We then discuss why Apple's $1 billion investment in Didi Chuxing should be compared to M&A and how the Didi deal marks the beginning of a new M&A phase. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Apple's $1 billion investment in Didi Chuxing is an important deal, marking the beginning of the company's official pivot into transportation. In this episode, we go over Didi's ridesharing business and the three primary reasons Apple decided to buy a stake in Didi. This is an unusual deal for Apple, indicative of significant change ahead for the company. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Apple is projected to report more than $10 billion of research and development expense in 2016. Unlike most of its tech peers, Apple remains very quiet about future plans. However, upon closer examination, there is only one explanation as to what Apple has in store with its R&D and the future: a pivot into personal transportation. In this episode, we take a closer look at why other explantations for rising R&D expense don't mesh with Apple, how Apple can actually pivot into new industries, and why Project Titan is not like any other R&D project. Project Titan is something different. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com/membership.

With Apple's 2Q16 earnings in the rearview mirror, we focus on the iPhone business and what appears to be a number of warning signs regarding growth and profitability. The iPhone business is slowing, and it appears that Apple management is still trying to get ahead of a deteriorating demand environment. In this episode, we discuss what is going on with the iPhone and the various warning signs beginning to appear. We then turn to the things to look out for when thinking about the path forward for iPhone and end with a big picture takeaway on where things stand in Apple's grand iPhone plan. Even though the iPhone business isn't imploding, it is time to become more skeptical about the iPhone's growth story. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com/membership.