How does geopolitical uncertainty affect inflation? How do we keep monetary policy fit for purpose in a rapidly changing world? And what are the main topics at this year’s ECB Forum in Sintra, Portugal?

In the first episode of our special Sintra series for The ECB Podcast, our host Paul Gordon discusses all these questions and more with Chief Economist and Executive Board member, Philip R. Lane.

The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank.

Published on 25 June 2025 and recorded on 16 June 2025.

In this episode:

01:28 The ECB Governing Council lowered key interest rates to 2%.

What was the motivation behind the decision?

04:30 How do we ensure that risks and uncertainties are integrated into the monetary policy decision-making process?

What is our baseline? What factors need to be taken into account?

06:44 Alternative scenarios in the latest projections

Why do we communicate our “what if” scenarios?

08:11 Meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent approach

Why do we follow this approach?

09:50 Strategy review

How can we make sure our strategy is up to date?

12:02 High-level uncertainty

How do we factor heightened uncertainty in our strategy?

13:50 ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal

What is the ECB Forum and what’s behind it? What’s the goal of the Forum? What’s Philip R. Lane looking forward to?

16:53 Our guest’s hot tip

Philip R. Lane shares his hot tip.

Programme of ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/conferences/html/20250630_ecb_forum_on_central_banking.en.html

Ken Rogoff "Our dollar, your problem"

https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300275315/our-dollar-your-problem/

ECB Instagram

https://www.instagram.com/europeancentralbank/

European Central Bank

www.ecb.europa.eu

ECB Banking Supervision

https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html