Forester and timber consultant Kraig Moore (KY/TN) breaks down the 2025 hardwood landscape: prices up roughly 3% YoY overall (net flat after inflation), sharp species splits (yellow-poplar +~20%, sugar maple +20–30%, white oak −~11% YoY but +~52% over 5 years; walnut +~85% over 5 years), and fragile mill capacity after 100+ sawmill closures in two years. He explains how tariffs, China’s historic pull for ~40% of U.S. lumber, and production shifting to Vietnam (labor ~⅓ cheaper than China) are reshaping demand. For landowners, the play is smart silviculture, competition-driven quality, patch clear-cuts/group selection, avoiding diameter-limit cuts, and aligning to mills within ~60–90 miles, to grow value and keep white oak (bourbon barrel essential) regenerating amid maple/beech pressure. Kentucky is ~50% forested, and with interest rates easing and housing starts improving, Kraig is cautiously bullish on hardwoods as a diversification pillar.

Episode takeaways:

Market snapshot: Hardwood prices ~+3% YoY overall (inflation-adjusted ≈ flat), with big winners (yellow-poplar, sugar maple) and laggards (hickory; white oak down YoY but strong 5-yr trend; walnut dominant long-term).

Capacity risk: 100+ sawmills gone in two years; if demand pops, supply could choke, pushing prices up fast.

Trade shift: China historically bought ~40% of U.S. lumber/logs; tariffs drove processing to Vietnam (labor ~⅓ cheaper than China), altering log vs. lumber economics.

Profit strategy for landowners: Manage for competition (natural pruning/straightness), use patch clear-cuts/group selection, avoid diameter-limit cuts, and time sales to species cycles.

Operational realities: Best ROI when mills are within ~60–90 miles; steep terrain or helicopter logging crush margins.

White oak future: Main challenge is regeneration, not overharvest, control shade-tolerant maple/beech, open canopy on the right aspects, and keep foresters involved.

Talk to Kraig Moore: 

National Land Realty

https://www.nationalland.com