So the mood of the boardroom special issue by the Herald is out and it’s a fascinating read.
150 business leader were canvassed and asked about the state of our economy and the state of our governance
It’s over 30 pages long and far more indicative of where we really are than some of the gloom-laden 20 second sound bites that we hear so often like “we’re going to hell in a handcart and this government is full of muppets.”
For instance, business leaders have decided that Grant Robertson has been the best performing Minister this year and that’s reassuring since he is the Minister of finance after all. He’s described as disciplined and easy to work with. He’s also praised for his ability to maintain fiscal balance despite some big pushes from his colleagues to loosen the purse strings.
That said he’s still not rating as high as Bill English in the same position. But what one energy chief says about him is instructive. “Huge work rate, big intellectual engine, and personable. The government needs another 5 of him”. And that is a problem as only five ministers have ever had cabinet experience. They are inexperienced.
Winston Peters continues to surprise which is surprising because he’s probably the most experienced politician left in the house after National’s big clean out over the past 2 years. As I’ve said before the trick with Winston is to give him a job because if he’s idle he’ll start making work.
The government hasn’t been complete muppets. Their surprise fix of the TPP has been highlighted. Business leaders rate regional development as the second highest KPI after fiscal discipline and so the Regional Fund gets a qualified tick of approval. That said Shane Jones continued attacks on business is a confidence killer. He’s been told by business to cut the bombast
James Shaw gets praise for finding environmental concerns all sides can agree on as we can tell from Simon Bridges recent support of the Climate Commission.
But what comes out of it all is the concern about the uncertainty that billows around the country. But what is that uncertainty? Well, the trade and tariff wars between big players is concerning because as the Herald says when elephants dance it’s the grass that gets trampled.
Then we’ve got all the working groups and no-one knows what they’re going to come up with.
But knowing that the Finance Minister wants to be disciplined what is really spooking the horses?
To me, it seems to be the findings of the tax working group and the fear of capital gains taxes which would have two consequences. If it’s on property that would destroy a form of savings that we’ve been doing for decades immediately impoverishing a generation. If it’s on capital markets then why would people invest in New Zealand and it’s businesses.
And then there’s the labour laws and Ian Lees Galloway, the workplace minister. He’s described as unlistening and doctrinaire. While changes to the 90-day law have been signalled and then mitigated by New Zealand First the real worry is collective bargaining.
This government calls it multi employer negotiating and it flies in the face of reason. Ask the public service. Everyone knows that wages and economises vary by region. Pay someone in Westport the same as someone in Wellington and the Westport worker gets a better deal. The old national collective agreements are an idea from the 60s and 70s. Even Helen Clark’s government realised they’d done their time.
If you want business confidence back sack the Workplace Minister. Drop the labour reform, leave business alone and get on with the areas that the country really want you to get into. Housing and social issues.
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