We’re in the most dangerous weeks of the Iran war since March, and the midterms are the reason. Professor Robert Pape returns to explain the wicked incentives pushing President Trump toward escalation before November 3rd, and why every option likely landing on his desk hands Tehran the advantage.
Pape walks through the three clocks converging on the midterms. The USS Theodore Roosevelt and a second Marine Expeditionary Unit are closing within striking range of Iran. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve has plateaued while Iran strikes more tankers in Hormuz than in any week of the war. And inflation inside Iran, which Pape puts near 100%, is tempting Washington to try to break Iran’s economy with air power.
He explains why striking Iran’s refineries could invite a retaliatory strike on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq facility that would hurt America more than Iran, and why landing Marines on Larak Island, Hormuz Island, or near Chabahar would hand Iran fixed targets without breaking its kill chain. We also cover the recent Tel Aviv flight incident, the drone threat that moved U.S. B-1 bombers out of an RAF base, and what history says about how long it takes a suicide terrorism campaign to reach the U.S. homeland once ground forces are committed.
Want Pape’s take on whether the Mecca Pact pulls Pakistan and Turkey into this war, and whether the overlapping U.S. and Israeli elections double the danger? The rest of the conversation is available in The Briefing Room, our members-only community on YouTube: [MEMBERSHIP LINK]
Read Robert Pape’s Substack, The Escalation Trap: <a href="https://escalationtrap.substack.com">https://escalationtrap.substack.com</a> 
Follow Scott on Substack: <a href="https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg">https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg</a> 
Watch on YouTube: [YOUTUBE LINK]
At the Water’s Edge brings you insights beyond the headlines, with a practitioner’s view on national security and geopolitics. Hosted by Scott Kelly, former Green Beret and founder of Grayzone Advisory.

We’re in the most dangerous weeks of the Iran war since March, and the midterms are the reason. Professor Robert Pape returns to explain the wicked incentives pushing President Trump toward escalation before November 3rd, and why every option likely landing on his desk hands Tehran the advantage. Pape walks through the three clocks converging on the midterms. The USS Theodore Roosevelt and a second Marine Expeditionary Unit are closing within striking range of Iran. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve has plateaued while Iran strikes more tankers in Hormuz than in any week of the war. And inflation inside Iran, which Pape puts near 100%, is tempting Washington to try to break Iran’s economy with air power. He explains why striking Iran’s refineries could invite a retaliatory strike on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq facility that would hurt America more than Iran, and why landing Marines on Larak Island, Hormuz Island, or near Chabahar would hand Iran fixed targets without breaking its kill chain. We also cover the recent Tel Aviv flight incident, the drone threat that moved U.S. B-1 bombers out of an RAF base, and what history says about how long it takes a suicide terrorism campaign to reach the U.S. homeland once ground forces are committed. Want Pape’s take on whether the Mecca Pact pulls Pakistan and Turkey into this war, and whether the overlapping U.S. and Israeli elections double the danger? The rest of the conversation is available in The Briefing Room, our members-only community on YouTube: [MEMBERSHIP LINK] Read Robert Pape’s Substack, The Escalation Trap: https://escalationtrap.substack.com Follow Scott on Substack: https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg Watch on YouTube: [YOUTUBE LINK] At the Water’s Edge brings you insights beyond the headlines, with a practitioner’s view on national security and geopolitics. Hosted by Scott Kelly, former Green Beret and founder of Grayzone Advisory.

We’re in the most dangerous weeks of the Iran war since March, and the midterms are the reason. Professor Robert Pape returns to explain the wicked incentives pushing President Trump toward escalation before November 3rd, and why every option likely landing on his desk hands Tehran the advantage.
Pape walks through the three clocks converging on the midterms. The USS Theodore Roosevelt and a second Marine Expeditionary Unit are closing within striking range of Iran. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve has plateaued while Iran strikes more tankers in Hormuz than in any week of the war. And inflation inside Iran, which Pape puts near 100%, is tempting Washington to try to break Iran’s economy with air power.
He explains why striking Iran’s refineries could invite a retaliatory strike on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq facility that would hurt America more than Iran, and why landing Marines on Larak Island, Hormuz Island, or near Chabahar would hand Iran fixed targets without breaking its kill chain. We also cover the recent Tel Aviv flight incident, the drone threat that moved U.S. B-1 bombers out of an RAF base, and what history says about how long it takes a suicide terrorism campaign to reach the U.S. homeland once ground forces are committed.
Want Pape’s take on whether the Mecca Pact pulls Pakistan and Turkey into this war, and whether the overlapping U.S. and Israeli elections double the danger? The rest of the conversation is available in The Briefing Room, our members-only community on YouTube: [MEMBERSHIP LINK]
Read Robert Pape’s Substack, The Escalation Trap: <a href="https://escalationtrap.substack.com" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://escalationtrap.substack.com</a> 
Follow Scott on Substack: <a href="https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg</a> 
Watch on YouTube: [YOUTUBE LINK]
At the Water’s Edge brings you insights beyond the headlines, with a practitioner’s view on national security and geopolitics. Hosted by Scott Kelly, former Green Beret and founder of Grayzone Advisory.

The Most Dangerous Weeks of the Iran War Are Here | Robert Pape

<a href="https://www.buzzsprout.com/twilio/text_messages/2264251/open_sms">Send us a text</a>Discussion with Josh Paul on his decision to resign from the State Department over concerns with the Biden administration's Israel policy, the role of arms transfers in U.S. foreign policy, and the role America plays in the world.  Contact: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com<a href="https://www.buymeacoffee.com/atthewatersedge%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20">Support the show</a>

Send us a text Discussion with Josh Paul on his decision to resign from the State Department over concerns with the Biden administration's Israel policy, the role of arms transfers in U.S. foreign policy, and the role America plays in the world. Contact: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com Support the show

<a href="https://www.buzzsprout.com/twilio/text_messages/2264251/open_sms" rel="noopener noreferrer">Send us a text</a>Discussion with Josh Paul on his decision to resign from the State Department over concerns with the Biden administration's Israel policy, the role of arms transfers in U.S. foreign policy, and the role America plays in the world.&nbsp; Contact: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com<a href="https://www.buymeacoffee.com/atthewatersedge%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20" rel="noopener noreferrer">Support the show</a>

E3: Josh Paul, former Director at U.S. Department of State

<a href="https://www.buzzsprout.com/twilio/text_messages/2264251/open_sms">Send us a text</a>Will the BRICS nations end the reign of the U.S. Dollar as the world's dominant currency, threatening America's prosperity and security? On paper, they could, but things get real messy real quick after that. The devil is always in the details.  Contact: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com<a href="https://www.buymeacoffee.com/atthewatersedge%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20">Support the show</a>

Send us a text Will the BRICS nations end the reign of the U.S. Dollar as the world's dominant currency, threatening America's prosperity and security? On paper, they could, but things get real messy real quick after that. The devil is always in the details. Contact: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com Support the show

<a href="https://www.buzzsprout.com/twilio/text_messages/2264251/open_sms" rel="noopener noreferrer">Send us a text</a>Will the BRICS nations end the reign of the U.S. Dollar as the world's dominant currency, threatening America's prosperity and security? On paper, they could, but things get real messy real quick after that. The devil is always in the details.&nbsp; Contact: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com<a href="https://www.buymeacoffee.com/atthewatersedge%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20" rel="noopener noreferrer">Support the show</a>

E2: The rise of BRICS and threat of de-dollarization

<a href="https://www.buzzsprout.com/twilio/text_messages/2264251/open_sms">Send us a text</a>As Israel prepares to invade Gaza and destroy Hamas, what challenges will it face and where can it all go wrong? We discuss the military, political, and economic implications of the ground assault and what lessons Israel should take from America's own experience fighting terrorists hiding among civilians in cities.  Contact: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com<a href="https://www.buymeacoffee.com/atthewatersedge%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20">Support the show</a>

Send us a text As Israel prepares to invade Gaza and destroy Hamas, what challenges will it face and where can it all go wrong? We discuss the military, political, and economic implications of the ground assault and what lessons Israel should take from America's own experience fighting terrorists hiding among civilians in cities. Contact: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com Support the show

<a href="https://www.buzzsprout.com/twilio/text_messages/2264251/open_sms" rel="noopener noreferrer">Send us a text</a>As Israel prepares to invade Gaza and destroy Hamas, what challenges will it face and where can it all go wrong? We discuss the military, political, and economic implications of the ground assault and what lessons Israel should take from America's own experience fighting terrorists hiding among civilians in cities.&nbsp; Contact: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com<a href="https://www.buymeacoffee.com/atthewatersedge%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20" rel="noopener noreferrer">Support the show</a>

Episode 1: Israel and the Invasion of Gaza

The At the Water’s Edge Podcast explores national security and geopolitics from an insider’s perspective, looking at how national power, industrial policy, diplomacy, and military might shape our world and America’s place in it.

News

News Commentary

The At the Water’s Edge Podcast explores national security and geopolitics from an insider’s perspective, looking at how national power, industrial policy, diplomacy, and military might shape our world and America’s place in it.

Share At the Water's Edge

Sign up to save your podcasts

At the Water's Edge

At the Water's Edge episodes

About At the Water's Edge

More shows like At the Water's Edge

Jocko Podcast