Twelve weeks before the midterm elections, Republicans’ hopes of retaking the Senate rest on a slate of Donald Trump's hand-picked nominees. And, across the board, they appear to be struggling.

In Pennsylvania, a ferocious Democratic campaign to paint Mehmet Oz as an out-of-touch carpetbagger has left him trailing in multiple polls. Herschel Walker may be a Georgia Bulldogs legend, but key voters appear to be doubting him after a series of gaffes and abuse allegations. The backing of Silicon Valley titan Peter Thiel hasn't yet been enough to sell Blake Masters' sharp-edged conservatism to Arizona voters. 

Yes, it's still early. Yes, Democrats have been on a bit of a winning streak lately. And, yes, plenty is going to change before Nov. 8. But with only one competitive state (New Hampshire) yet to select its Senate nominee, the picture is clear: Democrats across the country are finding ways to run ahead — sometimes well ahead — of Joe Biden's approval ratings.

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Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.
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