The numbers going into 2026 were some of the best in aviation history. Then, US and Israeli strikes on Iran led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, choking off a fifth of the world's oil supplies. Carriers saw jet fuel prices surge by more than 120% and braced for supply shortages, cancelling thousands of flights and raising airfares. Some budget airlines have already shut down, and others could follow.
The aviation industry's annual gathering in Rio was supposed to celebrate record profits and chart a greener future. Arnold Gay speaks with Yasmin Jonkers to find out who will survive, who pays for cleaner skies and what kind of world we are flying into.

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