Beyond Politics

Or will it amp it up even further? The panel dives into why Democrats are gaining ground, and whether President Biden's big move on student debt is the right thing to do both economically and politically. Plus, Lindsay Graham makes the MAGA hostage threat explicit: stay away from Trump, or the base will attack (again). Does that mean prosecutors should back off?

In the past week, Republican attacks on the Inflation Reduction Act around how it funds tax enforcement have gotten downright scary, claiming that the IRS will use the additional funding to hire thousands of armed agents and threaten Americans’ life and liberty. It's nonsense, but it's nothing new. Back in December, we did an episode of Great Ideas that ran through the myths, realities, and partisan lies that were emerging then about tax enforcement...and most of it applies just as much now as it did then. 

We work very hard on this show to get out of our bubble and challenge our perceptions about what is happening, so that we don't end up just living in a political echo chamber. There’s no better way to do that for Democrat than to hear from one the very top Republican pollsters working today. Right now, the big question is whether there is a real shift going on in politics...is it just a case of Democrats over tilting on a bit of good news, or is it based on real, tangible signs that voters' fundamental views and drivers of politics are changing? We've heard from Democratic analysts, and now, we get insights from Whit Ayres, a leading Washington, D.C. political consultant with over 30 years of experience in polling and survey research for high profile political campaigns and associations. He’s the Founder and President of North Star Opinion Research, a national public opinion and public affairs research firm where he provides message development and strategic insights to high level political clients including Marco Rubio, Lindsey Graham, Jim Inhofe, John Kennedy, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Whit’s comments and analysis appear in The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Los Angeles Times, USA Today,and numerous regional newspapers as well as National Public Radio.

This week, we're focusing on the question of the big vibe shift in politics: is it just a hazy feeling among Democrats, or a real reflection of a significant change in their favor?  Aliza Astrow is a senior political analyst at Third Way who conducts public opinion research and analysis on voter views, and she walks through whether, how much, and why voters may be warming to keeping Democrats in power. 

Numerous data points are suggesting that there may be some positive trends for Democrats, along with some troubling signs for Republicans.  Dems have been acting downright giddy about what they see as the recent turn.  But is it mostly in their mind?  Is it going to be enough? Or are they getting meaningful traction at just the right time? The panel weighs what we're seeing out there and separates what's real from what's not. 

Since the FBI search on Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home more than a week ago, the response from Republican office holders has been to demonize the Department of Justice, FBI, and law-enforcement in general. Republican firebrand Marjorie Taylor Greene called for the FBI to be "destroyed and defunded," and the echoes of that exact sentiment have sounded throughout Republican Party leadership. Our guest today  identifies a growing pattern of opposing the rule of law and celebrating lawlessness at the heart of the Republican Party. Caroline Fredrickson is a Senior Fellow at the Brennen Center for Justice at NYU Law. She’s served as the President of the American Constitution Society and she’s a frequent guest on television and radio, including serving as a regular on-air commentator during Donald Trump’s impeachments. She regularly contributes opinion pieces for The New York Times, The Washington Post, and other news outlets, the most recent of which was “The Lawless G.O.P. Response to the Raid at Mar-a-Lago” in the New York Times.

Chris Hill, host of the country's #1 stock investing radio show, joins Matt to dive into the question of whether we are actually in a recession, and whether that question really matters.  There are confusing, contradictory market signs, promising indications, and warnings that could spell trouble ahead.  Chris and Matt try to untangle the indications from jobs, retailer's earnings, stock market performance, GDP growth, and hiring to understand what the big picture really is. 

A new, highly-regarded poll from the St. Anselm's Institute of Politics is providing the best understanding yet of the politics of abortion after the Supreme Court's historic ruling ending Roe v. Wade. Neil Levesque, Executive Director at the IOP, takes us inside what they found, including how they are differentiating between people's personal views and how they will behave politically, and why this issue really could provide a winning edge for Democrats in some of the nation's most closely contested races this November.  Also, the poll provides new data on the overall political environment and helps fill in the story of what's happened in politics over the past year, and where things may go next. 

Photo by Gayatri Malhotra on Unsplash

Our panel of former US Congressman Paul Hodes, conservative columnist Alicia Preston, and former staffer/campaign manager Matt Robison unpacks what we've learned in recent days about Donald Trump's hidden stash of top secret files, and identifies the one big question that no Republican Trump defender seems able to answer.  Also, are things truly turning in Dem's direction politically?

On April 14 2021, President Biden announced that a full withdrawal from Afghanistan -- one that President Trump had previously promised would  happen by May -- would go forward by September 11.  The withdrawal turned out to be chaotic and deadly.  By August 15, Kabul had fallen to the Taliban, and 13 US service-members were subsequently killed. Now, as we approach the one year anniversary of that date, how should we think about the withdrawal decision? Was the price too high?  Or does the recent killing of the world's top terrorist there help show that it was the best decision in the long run? Sean Carberry is a foreign affairs expert, consultant, and an award winning journalist and media producer with unique experience reporting on conflict. He served as NPR’s international correspondent based in Kabul, Afghanistan after reporting for NPR from more than two dozen war torn middle eastern and African countries. He worked for the US department of Defense as the lead on Department of Defense Inspector General reports on Afghanistan. 

Photo by Andre Klimke on Unsplash