Bloomberg Businessweek

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Signs Donald Trump is rethinking the most-aggressive elements of his combative stances on trade and the Federal Reserve spurred back-to-back gains in stocks and the dollar, while soothing volatility across asset classes.

The S&P 500 rose 1.7%, though it pared an earlier surge that had swelled to as much 3.4%, as investors tried to gauge how seriously to take pronouncements of flexibility in negotiations with China and other trading partners. The greenback climbed against most major currencies.

After a report that the US would be willing to phase in lighter tariffs on Beijing over five years on Wednesday, Trump told reporters that China was “going to do fine” once talks had settled. Meantime, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the president hasn’t offered to take down US tariffs on China on a unilateral basis.
Long-maturity Treasury yields fell as Trump allayed fears he would fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The yen slid as Bessent said America won’t be pursuing specific exchange-rate targets in its talks with Japan. Bitcoin jumped while haven trades like gold pushed lower.

Today's show features:

• Eric Weiner, Bloomberg News Senior Editor, Equities Americas
• Katy Kaminski, Chief Research Strategist of AlphaSimplex
• Jefferies Senior Technology Research Analyst Brent Thill on IBM earnings
• Ross Gerber, President and CEO Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management

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ICYMI: Joshua Ballard, CEO of USA Rare Earth, discusses the challenges faces American companies interested in producing and refining the crucial raw materials that are used in the likes of missiles, electric vehicles, MRI machines and other advanced technologies - while China stands as their global dominant supplier.

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Tesla Inc. backed away from an earlier view for 2025 sales growth and pledged to revisit its outlook next quarter, a sign that tariffs, an aging vehicle lineup and the backlash against Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk are having an impact on the electric-vehicle maker.

The company on Tuesday reported adjusted earnings of 27 cents per share for the first quarter, below the average analyst estimate. Tesla omitted an earlier prediction that sales would return to growth for the full year, saying instead that it’s “making prudent investments that will set up” the vehicle business for growth. That will depend on factors including production increases and the “broader macroeconomic environment.”
“It is difficult to measure the impacts of shifting global trade policy on the automotive and energy supply chains, our cost structure and demand for durable goods and related services,” Tesla said.

The dimmer outlook for the year follows a tough 2024, when the carmaker missed its annual sales growth target for the first time in more than a decade. It also fell short of analysts’ expectations for first-quarter vehicle sales, which were released earlier this month.

President Donald Trump’s tariffs are compounding Tesla’s challenges, and threaten to upend automotive supply chains globally and drive up costs across the industry. While Tesla is expected to be relatively less affected than many carmakers due to its large plants in California and Texas, its vehicles nevertheless contain some non-US components, and the company has warned of a potential impact.

Today's show features:

• Tony Roth, Chief Investment Officer of Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors
• Julie Johnsson, Bloomberg News, Senior Aerospace Reporter
• Ross Gerber, President and CEO Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management

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ICYMI: Bloomberg big tech team leader Sarah Frier joins to talk about her Businessweek column on YouTube Manager John Shahidi - and how he played a role in sending Trump back to the White House.

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The Supreme Court is considering an emergency petition from President Donald Trump that could imperil the Federal Reserve’s ability to remain independent. And earlier today, President Donald Trump warned the US economy may slow if the Federal Reserve does not move to immediately reduce interest rates, in his latest broadside against Fed Chair Jerome Powell. 

Trump said in a social media post Monday that “there is virtually No Inflation,” pointing to lower energy and food prices. “But there can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW,” Trump said, referring to Powell. 

Economists widely expect Trump’s tariffs to boost inflation and slow growth, even if just temporarily. While inflation has cooled notably in recent years, it remains elevated. Powell, along with several of his colleagues, has underscored the central bank must ensure new levies don’t lead to a more persistent bout of inflation. 

Trump has rattled Wall Street by repeatedly criticizing Powell and suggesting he had the ability to remove the Fed Chair before the end of his term. US equities sank on Monday as traders weighed the chances Powell gets axed, with the S&P 500 Index falling more than 3%. 

Trump has privately asked his advisers about the possibility of removing Powell, while some administration officials have warned him against doing so, according to people familiar with the matter. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett on Friday told reporters that the president was studying the question of whether he’s able to fire Powell. 

While the US economy grew at a healthy clip last year — at a 2.4% pace in the fourth quarter — economists see a tariff-induced drop in business investment and consumption driving a slowdown later this year. Meanwhile, progress on cooling inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target had stalled, but price growth slowed again in March, with the consumer price index rising 2.4% from a year earlier. 

Today’s show features: 

• Lev Menand, associate professor of law at Columbia Law School on his latest Bloomberg Opinion column How Supreme Court Could Imperil Fed Independence: Judge & Menand & Bloomberg News Economics Editor Molly Smith 
• Bloomberg Economics US Economist Stuart Paul & Bloomberg News Global Economy Reporter Enda Curran on the global economic outlook with IMF spring meetings ahead 
• Bloomberg Businessweek columnist and Elon Inc podcast cohost Max Chafkin on his Big Take: Trump’s Agenda Is Shaped by Project 2025 Author, Not Elon Musk 
• And we Drive to the Close with Jeff McClean, CEO of Solidarity Wealth 

Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec 

Producer: Justin Milliner

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Shares in Eli Lilly surged on Friday  after its experimental pill helped patients shed weight and control blood sugar about as well as Ozempic, an advance that could turbocharge what’s already one of the fastest growing markets in medicine. Shares of the drug’s originator Chugai Pharmaceutical Co. also soared. 

The triumph of Ozempic, the blockbuster diabetes shot from Novo Nordisk A/S, and related drugs including Zepbound and Mounjaro from Lilly, has set off an all-out push to develop a pill that’s easier to take and less expensive to make. While rivals including Pfizer Inc. have suffered setbacks, analysts said success is critical to creating the $130 billion market they predict by the end of the decade. 

Hosts Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec speak with Bloomberg's Damian Garde about the new pill could mean for Eli Lilly. 

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Featuring some of our favorite conversations of the week from our daily radio show “Bloomberg Businessweek Daily.” Hosted by Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec.

Hear the show live at 2PM ET on WBBR 1130 AM New York, Bloomberg 92.9 FM Boston, WDCH 99.1 FM in Washington D.C. Metro, Sirius/XM channel 121, on the Bloomberg Business App, Radio.com, the iHeartRadio app and at Bloomberg.com/audio. You can also watch Bloomberg Businessweek on YouTube - just search for Bloomberg Podcasts. Like us at Bloomberg Radio on Facebook and follow us on X @carolmassar @timsteno

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Netflix reported first-quarter profit that exceeded Wall Street forecasts, boosted by a recent price increase and a strong slate of programming across the globe, like the hit UK series Adolescence. The owner of the world’s most popular online TV network said in a statement Thursday that earnings rose 25% to $6.61 a share, easily beating analysts’ estimates of $5.68. Sales grew 13% to $10.5 billion, in line with projections. This is the first time Netflix has reported financial results without disclosing how many customers it added or lost — the main yardstick investors previously used to gauge the company’s performance. Management is forcing investors to judge its success or failure based on more traditional financial metrics. The company boosted operating income by 27% to $3.3 billion, beating expectations of $3 billion. Its operating margin of 31.7% was more than three percentage points above its own forecast.
For instant reaction and analysis, hosts Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec speak with Bloomberg News Entertainment Reporter Lucas Shaw and Mark Douglas, President and CEO of MNTN.

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Google illegally monopolized some online advertising technology markets, according to a federal judge, whose ruling marked the latest antitrust setback for the company and a challenge to its main source of revenue.

US District Judge Leonie Brinkema found on Thursday that the Alphabet Inc. unit violated antitrust law in the markets for advertising exchanges and tools used by websites to sell ad space, known as ad servers. But she said the company didn’t meet the definition of a monopoly for a third market of tools used by advertisers to buy display ads.

Alphabet shares quickly sank as much as 3.2% on the ruling, then slightly pared their losses. The stock was down 1.1% at $153.78 at 1:10 p.m. in New York.

Brinkema’s decision marked the second time in a year that Google was found by a court to be an illegal monopolist. A trial begins Monday in Washington on a remedy after the company was found to monopolize the online search market. The Justice Department is seeking to force Alphabet to sell off its Chrome browser.

In the ad technology case, Brinkema wrote in her 115-page opinion Thursday that “Google has willfully engaged in a series of anticompetitive acts to acquire and maintain monopoly power in the publisher ad server and ad exchange markets for open-web display advertising.” For over a decade, Google pushed web publishers to use its tools that both placed ads on websites and help manage their advertising business, the judge found.

Today's show features:

• Bloomberg News Legal Team Leader Sara Forden on Google’s Antitrust Case and Supreme Court to Hear Citizenship Case
• Michael McKee, Bloomberg International Economics and Policy Correspondent & Bloomberg Federal Reserve reporter Catalina Saraiva on whether the Fed's independence is in question
• Ken Natori, President of Natori Company, on how tariffs are impacting retail sector
• and we Drive to the Close with ReAnn Mitrione, Founder and CFA at Callan Family Office

Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec Producer: Sebastian Escobar

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