Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition

On today's podcast:
1) US forces intercepted and seized a sanctioned oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela, marking a serious escalation of tensions between the two countries. A senior Trump administration official referred to the ship as “a stateless vessel” that was last docked in Venezuela. Bloomberg News was first to report the seizure. The US action may make it much harder for Venezuela to export its crude, as other shippers are now likely to be more reluctant to load its cargoes. Most of the nation’s oil goes to China, usually through intermediaries, at steep discounts owing to sanctions risk. Brent futures edged higher after the news.
2) A coalition of Ukraine’s allies will discuss a bid to move swiftly on President Trump’s peace proposal on Thursday as Kyiv’s forces carried out their first-ever attack on Russian Caspian Sea oil production. Leaders from more than 30 countries that are part of the so-called coalition of the willing group will hold a virtual meeting, their second this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in a video address. Allies will discuss the state of peace talks and the latest draft plan that Ukrainian officials sent to Washington overnight, people familiar with the planning said. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz are expected to brief participants on an exchange they had with Trump on Wednesday.
3) A market party after the Federal Reserve’s policy decision came to an abrupt halt within hours as a plunge in Oracle Corp.’s shares reawakened concerns over tech-stock valuations. Now investors are left to ponder whether they will still get a Christmas rally. The MSCI All Country World Index had been a whisker away from its peak before changing course, while gold snapped what would have been a three-day winning streak. The earlier gains were a reflection of enthusiasm following the Fed’s latest interest rate cut and Chair Jerome Powell’s upbeat assessment of the US economy. The upbeat mood faded after Oracle’s stock plunged on the company’s below-consensus sales and spending increase that rekindled worries over tech shares’ expensive valuations. That caused Nasdaq futures to slump as much as 1.6% and 10-year Treasury yields to drop by three basis points at one point.

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Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Lisa Abramowicz discuss remarks from Fed Chair Jay Powell following the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision on a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. 

Federal Reserve officials delivered a third consecutive interest-rate reduction and maintained their outlook for just one cut in 2026.

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 Wednesday to lower the benchmark federal funds rate by a quarter point to a range of 3.5%-3.75%. It also subtly altered the wording of its statement suggesting greater uncertainty about when it might cut rates again.

Speaking to reporters after the meeting, Chair Jerome Powell suggested the Fed had now done enough to bolster against the threat to employment while leaving rates high enough to continue weighing on price pressures: “This further normalization of our policy stance should help stabilize the labor market while allowing inflation to resume its downward trend toward 2% once the effects of tariffs have passed through,” he said.

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Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Lisa Abramowicz break down the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision on a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance.

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On today's podcast:
1) Stocks are marking a second straight day of restrained moves as traders await the Fed’s outlook for interest rates in 2026 after an expected cut at Wednesday’s policy announcement.
2) President Donald Trump said people were “starting to learn” the benefits of his tariff regime as he sought to convince voters his administration was moving to address affordability concerns, taking to the road in hopes of countering a mounting political vulnerability.
3) Paramount Skydance Corp. and Netflix Inc. — the entertainment heavyweights locked in a bidding war for Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. — are girding for a battle they predict will stretch well into 2026.

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On today's podcast:
1) The US president’s son-in-law. One of the largest alternative-asset managers. The CEO’s father who fleetingly commanded a fortune exceeding Elon Musk’s. Paramount Skydance Corp.’s hostile takeover bid Monday for Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. brought together an array of banks, billionaires and sovereign-wealth funds, all with the aim of torpedoing Netflix Inc.’s deal last week.
2) President Donald Trump granted Nvidia Corp. permission to ship its H200 artificial intelligence chip to China in exchange for a 25% surcharge, a move that lets the world’s most valuable company potentially regain billions of dollars in lost business from a key global market.
3) Stocks wavered and US bond yields softened from a two-month high as traders held off on making big bets ahead of the Federal Reserve’s final interest-rate decision of 2025. S&P 500 futures were little changed after the US benchmark halted a four-day rally. A dayslong slump in US Treasuries has curbed risk appetite as traders grow cautious about the pace of rate cuts beyond Wednesday’s policy meeting.

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On today's podcast:
1) President Donald Trump raised potential antitrust concerns around Netflix Inc.’s planned $72 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery Inc., noting that the market share of the combined entity may pose problems.
2) The Trump administration on Monday plans to unveil a long-awaited farm aid package, according to a White House official, offering $12 billion in assistance to a key base of support hit hard by low crop prices and the impact of the president’s tariff policies.
3) Yardeni Research now recommends effectively going underweight the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks versus the rest of the S&P 500, expecting a shift in earnings growth ahead.

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Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week.

• In the US – a look ahead to next week’s Fed decision and earnings from Oracle and Adobe.
• In the UK – a look ahead to the Blackhat cybersecurity conference.
• In Asia – a look ahead to China consumer and producer price data.

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On today's podcast:
1) Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. has entered exclusive negotiations to sell its film and TV studios and HBO Max streaming service to Netflix Inc., according to people familiar with the discussions. Netflix is offering a $5 billion breakup fee if regulators don’t approve the deal, said the people, who asked to not be identified because the discussions are private. The two companies could announce a deal as soon as in the coming days, assuming talks don’t fall apart, the people said. The move suggests Netflix has pulled ahead of Paramount Skydance Corp. and Comcast Corp., who were also competing for the asset. Prior to the closing of the sale, Warner Bros. — valued at more than $60 billion overall — will complete the planned spinoff of cable channels including CNN, TBS and TNT.
2) The US lobbied several countries in the European Union in an effort to block EU plans to use frozen Russian central bank assets to back a massive loan to Ukraine, according to European diplomats familiar with the matter. US officials argued to member states that the assets are needed to help secure a peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow and should not be used to prolong the war, said the diplomats, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
3) India will pay about $2 billion to lease a nuclear-powered submarine from Russia, according to people familiar with the matter, finalizing delivery of the vessel after roughly a decade of talks just as President Vladimir Putin makes a visit to New Delhi. Talks for leasing the attack submarine from Russia had stalled over the years because of price negotiations, the people said, asking not to be identified because the discussions are private. The two sides have now agreed on the deal, with Indian officials visiting a Russian shipyard in November.

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On today's podcast:
1) Kevin Hassett may not have the ability to deliver the rapid pace of interest rate cuts President Trump would like, even if he is approved as the next Federal Reserve Chair, said Gregory Peters, co-chief investment officer at PGIM Fixed Income. Peters made the remarks amid rising talk that Hassett, the White House National Economic Council Director, may ease monetary policy aggressively to please Trump if he is picked to run the Fed. But the PGIM fund manager suggested that — since Fed rate decisions are ultimately decided by committee — Hassett won’t have the power to deliver on his own. Peters’ remarks were in response to a Financial Times report that bond investors, including those on the borrowing advisory committee, have voiced concerns to the US Treasury about Hassett’s potential appointment as the Fed chief.
2) President Trump’s aides and allies are discussing the possibility of making Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent the top White House economic adviser — in addition to his current job — should the president pick Kevin Hassett as the next chair of the Federal Reserve, according to people familiar with the matter. Tapping Bessent to lead the White House’s National Economic Council would allow him to consolidate oversight of Trump’s economic policies if Hassett — the current NEC director — becomes the next leader of the US central bank, an announcement Trump has hinted at in recent days. If Bessent is also named to the NEC, he would become the chief arbiter of the administration’s economic portfolio spanning the purview of both the Treasury Department and White House. It would also give Bessent a West Wing office, granting him even more physical proximity to the president.
3) The Pentagon watchdog concluded that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth risked endangering American troops and the US mission against Houthi rebels in Yemen when he shared attack plans on the Signal messaging app, a person familiar with the matter said. The acting Pentagon inspector general’s classified report, delivered to a Senate committee yesterday, said Hegseth violated government policies by using his personal phone and Signal to transmit the information, which was marked “Secret.” The person describing the contents of the report asked not to be identified discussing private information.

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On today's podcast:
1) The Kremlin said Vladimir Putin held “very useful” talks with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner though the sides failed to reach agreement on a plan to end Russia’s war in Ukraine. The negotiations lasting almost five hours were “constructive and very informative,” though “a compromise hasn’t been reached yet” on the critical issue of territorial control, Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters in Moscow. A possible meeting between Putin and President Trump “will depend on what progress is being made,” Ushakov added.
2) Republicans averted an upset in a Tennessee-based US House race Tuesday, a relief to President Trump and his congressional allies. Matt Van Epps, the Trump-backed Republican candidate, was projected to win by the AP, NBC News and Decision Desk HQ, an election analysis website. Trump praised the GOP victory in a social media post and Van Epps declared victory. Yet even in victory, voters in a district Trump won overwhelmingly just over a year ago swung away from Republicans, the latest data point in a trend that is raising alarm about the GOP’s prospects in next year’s midterm elections, as Van Epps’ victory came about only after Republicans surged resources and expended political capital in a strident GOP district that would typically be considered safe.
3) President Trump said he plans to announce his selection to lead the Federal Reserve in early 2026 and teased National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett as his possible choice on Tuesday, fueling further speculation about the next leader of the US central bank. Hassett is seen as the likely choice to succeed Powell, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg News last week, and Trump nodded to that position at a separate event shortly after the Cabinet meeting on Tuesday. Trump’s comments offer a clearer timeline for the announcement. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has been overseeing the selection process, previously said the pick could be revealed around Christmas.

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