Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition

On today's podcast:
1) Global stocks are poised for their worst week in seven months as concerns over lofty valuations and whether massive investments in artificial intelligence will pay off prompt investors to retreat from riskier assets. The MSCI All Country World Index has slumped 3.1% this week, putting it on track for its sharpest weekly drop since April 4, when President Trump’s tariffs rattled markets. Bitcoin fell below $84,000, extending its drop from an all-time high less than seven weeks ago to more than 30%. European and Asian shares were also set for their biggest weekly decline since April after Wall Street’s Thursday selloff. Sentiment remained fragile for US assets, with S&P 500 futures fluctuating after the benchmark slipped to its weakest level since September.
2) Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said she’s approaching next month’s rate-setting meeting with caution, though she remains more concerned about weaknesses in the job market. “Each rate cut brings us closer to the level where policy flips from restraining activity a bit to the place where it is providing a boost. So, I am approaching the December FOMC cautiously,” Paulson said Thursday, referring to next month’s gathering of the Federal Open Market Committee. “Each rate cut raises the bar for the next cut.” Deep divisions have emerged among policymakers after they lowered rates at two consecutive meetings. Some remain concerned more by weakness in the labor market while others have expressed growing worry over inflation. The lack of official data during the long government shutdown has also blurred policymakers’ view of the economy.
3) President Trump and New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani are set to meet at the White House on Friday, the president said in a social media post. The meeting marks the first time the two leaders will come together to discuss how they can work with each other since the election earlier this month. Mamdani was elected as mayor of New York City after campaigning on a progressive platform that includes freezing the rent on more than 1 million stabilized apartments, providing universal child care, funding free buses and operating city-owned grocery stores. Mamdani, a democratic socialist, is seeking higher taxes on corporations and the wealthy to pay for his agenda.

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On today's podcast:
1) Nvidia Corp. delivered a surprisingly strong revenue forecast and pushed back on the idea that the AI industry is in a bubble, easing concerns that had spread across the tech sector. The world’s most valuable company expects sales of about $65 billion in the January quarter — roughly $3 billion more than analysts predicted. Nvidia also said that a half-trillion-dollar revenue bonanza due in coming quarters may be even bigger than anticipated. The outlook signals that demand remains robust for Nvidia’s artificial intelligence accelerators, the pricey and powerful chips used to develop AI models. Nvidia had faced growing fears in recent weeks that the runaway spending on such equipment wasn’t sustainable. Nvidia results have become a barometer for the health of the AI industry, and the news lifted a variety of related stocks.
2) Bond investors are zeroing in on Thursday’s US labor market report, which is expected to either kill or rekindle waning expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut next month. The September payrolls report, due at 8:30 a.m. New York time after a delay caused by the government shutdown, will be the only official major jobs data published before Fed policymakers meet for the final time this year. A report showing a resilient employment situation could undercut the case for more rate cuts and dash hopes of a further rally in the $30 trillion US Treasuries market. A soft reading, on the other hand, could revive bets on a third consecutive quarter-point cut at the Dec. 10 meeting and boost a market that’s already headed for its best year since 2020. Odds of a December cut assigned by the market have steadily slipped in recent weeks as some policymakers pushed back against further easing while inflation continues to run above the Fed’s 2% target.
3) President Trump has signed legislation to compel the Department of Justice to release files on the late, disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein. Trump said in a social media post that he signed the legislation Wednesday, approving a measure he had spent months trying to block in a fight that inflamed tensions in his own party and threatened to undermine his agenda. The president’s signature marked a stunning about-face for Trump, who had assailed the effort to require the release of the government’s files on Epstein — a convicted sex offender, who was facing federal charges of trafficking underage girls when he died in jail in 2019. It followed a lopsided 427 to 1 vote in the House — where a lone Republican lawmaker provided the only no vote — and the Senate agreeing unanimously to send the measure to the president’s desk.

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Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang discusses the "off the charts" sales of the Blackwell advanced graphics processing unit (GPU), the company's new Vera Rubin platform and the outlook for demand from China with Bloomberg Tech co-host Ed Ludlow, in a special conversation as heard on Bloomberg TV and Radio.

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Nvidia, the world’s most valuable company, gave a strong revenue forecast for the current period, helping counter concern that a global surge in AI spending is poised to fizzle. Sales will be about $65 billion in the fiscal fourth quarter, which runs through January, the chipmaker said in a statement Wednesday. Analysts had estimated $62 billion on average, with some predictions ranging as high as $75 billion. 

The outlook signals that demand remains strong for Nvidia’s artificial intelligence accelerators, the pricey and powerful chips used to develop AI models. Nvidia has faced growing fears that the runaway spending on such equipment isn’t sustainable. Nvidia shares gained about 4% in late trading after the report was released. They had been up 39% this year through the close.

For instant reaction and analysis, Bloomberg Businessweek Daily hosts Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec speak with:

• Jay Goldberg, Senior Analyst, Semiconductors & Electronics with Seaport Research Partners
• Bloomberg Tech Co-Host Ed Ludlow
• Bloomberg News Big Tech Team Leader Sarah Frier

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On today's podcast:
1) President Trump’s firm control of Washington showed signs of weakening Tuesday as Congress voted to compel the Justice Department to release its files on sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein, whose earlier ties to the president have been the subject of intense scrutiny. The legislation overwhelmingly passed the House in a 427 to 1 vote. Within hours, the Senate agreed unanimously that the bill would be passed without further action once it arrives in the Senate. It will then be sent to Trump, who has said he’ll sign it. Trump late Sunday relented on his prior opposition and directed Republicans to vote to release the files. Senate Republicans ignored calls by Speaker Mike Johnson to give the Justice Department additional leeway to withhold documents. 
2) President Trump said he would formally designate Saudi Arabia as a major non-NATO ally in a further strengthening of ties between the two countries, capping a day of dealmaking between the US leader and the kingdom’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The designation for nations with close strategic relationships with the US provides financing and priority access for purchases of certain military equipment, as well as the ability to participate in joint research efforts. Saudi Arabia will become the 20th ally designated under the status, joining other nations in the Middle East including Egypt, Israel, and Qatar. MBS, as Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader is known, was joined by prominent executives and celebrities including Elon Musk and soccer star Cristiano Ronaldo at the Tuesday evening event, with Apple CEO Tim Cook, Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, and FIFA President Gianni Infantino also in attendance.
3) Wall Street will get a sense of where the billions of dollars being spent on artificial intelligence are going when Nvidia reports its earnings after the bell on Wednesday. Analysts expect the chip behemoth to show more than 50% growth in both net income and revenue in its fiscal third quarter. The reason is fairly straightforward. Microsoft Corp., Amazon.com Inc., Alphabet Inc. and Meta Platforms Inc. — which taken together represent more than 40% of Nvidia’s sales — are projected to increase their combined AI spending by 34% over the next 12 months to $440 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The risk is that these numbers could become unreliable if the big AI spenders, in particular closely held OpenAI, have to pull back on their commitments.

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On today's podcast:
1) Global markets extended a broad selloff, with US stock futures signaling a fourth day of losses and Bitcoin briefly slipping below $90,000 as traders pulled away from speculative assets. S&P 500 futures fell 0.3% after the benchmark closed below its 50-day moving average in the previous session, a sign of scope for further losses. Bitcoin slid more than 1%. European stocks declined for a fourth day. Stock gauges across Asia were in the red, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 posting its worst day since April. Bonds were the biggest beneficiaries as investors sought havens, with the yield on 10-year US Treasuries dropping four basis points to 4.10%. The dollar held steady as gold fell closer to $4,000 an ounce. The cross-asset moves underscored continued unease over interest rates and tech earnings, with Nvidia Corp.’s report on Wednesday poised to test investor nerves over lofty valuations in the artificial-intelligence sector. Focus will then turn to the delayed September jobs report due Thursday, a key gauge for the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
2) Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller repeated his view that the central bank should again lower interest rates when policymakers meet in December, citing a weak labor market and monetary policy that is hurting low- and middle-income consumers. In a speech titled ‘The Case for Continuing Rate Cuts’ delivered in London, Waller said another rate cut would represent good “risk management” by the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee. He said he isn’t concerned about inflation accelerating or inflation expectations rising significantly given clear signs of softening demand for workers.
3) Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will likely be greeted with great fanfare by President Trump during his visit to the White House on Tuesday. The crown prince hopes to secure an executive order from Trump to bolster Saudi Arabia’s security and potentially pave the way for a stronger defense treaty. The two are also expected to reach an agreement that would allow the kingdom to purchase F-35 stealth planes, despite Israel wanting to keep a monopoly on access. Discussions on the future of Gaza and the thorny issue of relations with Israel are on the agenda as well. There also remains tension over access to AI chips and nuclear technology.

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On today's podcast:
1) The Justice Department would have to publicly release unclassified records relating to the late financier and convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein under a House proposal set for a vote this week. On Sunday, President Trump said House Republicans should vote to require the DOJ to release the files, effectively reversing a position he’d held for months. Trump has been under increasing pressure from some within his party to release the investigative materials on the disgraced financier, who ran an underage sex ring and died in prison in 2019. A congressional committee last week released some 20,000 pages of emails and other documents, pivoting attention away from the fight over the government shutdown and forcing the White House to respond.
2) US airlines will be able to resume normal operations starting Monday after more than a week of government-mandated flight reductions. The US Department of Transportation and Federal Aviation Administration announced late Sunday they would lift cuts across 40 major US airports that were imposed during the government shutdown, starting from 6 a.m. Monday New York time. On Friday, officials earlier eased up on flight reductions, capping them at 3% from 6%. The cuts first went into effect on November 7th at a rate of 4% and were supposed to slowly increase to 10% by November 14th. However, the government froze the rate at 6% Wednesday, shortly before President Trump signed legislation to end the longest federal closure in US history. 
3) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Trump’s proposal to send $2,000 “dividend” payments from tariffs to US citizens would require congressional approval. Trump, who has touted the billions raised in US tariff revenue this year, has talked about the checks as public frustration mounts over the cost of living. Speaking to reporters on Air Force One on Friday, Trump said the checks would go out sometime next year to “everybody but the rich.”

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Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week.

• In the US – a look ahead to earnings from Nvidia, Walmart, and Target.
• In the UK – a look ahead to the European Business Summit.
• In Asia – a look ahead to Japan’s upcoming GDP report.

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On today's podcast:
1) President Trump is readying substantial tariff cuts designed to address high food prices and a series of new trade deals — including framework agreements with Argentina, Guatemala, El Salvador and Ecuador — as he seeks to address voter concerns over the cost of goods. The push comes after electoral victories for Democrats last week across a number of key state and local races where candidates stressed affordability concerns. Trade deals with Latin American countries unveiled Thursday will see the US reduce tariffs and barriers on common grocery items like beef, bananas, and coffee beans in a push to lower grocery bills that have for years frustrated Americans. Separately, Trump and other senior administration officials have previewed broader tariff exemptions that could cut levies on popular food products across the board. In interviews earlier this week on Fox News, Trump pledged to “lower some tariffs” on coffee while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested fruit imports would receive a break.
2) Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem announced $10,000 bonus checks for Transportation Security Administration officers who worked without pay during the six-week government shutdown, calling the payments a reward for “exemplary service” under strain. Speaking at Houston’s George Bush Intercontinental Airport on Thursday, Noem said the move would help employees who took extra shifts to keep security lines moving as paychecks stopped. The shutdown, the longest in US history, shuttered large parts of the federal government for 43 days and left more than 800,000 workers without pay. Aviation was among the hardest-hit sectors: the Federal Aviation Administration cut flight capacity by 10% at major airports as air-traffic controller shortages mounted, and more than 9,000 flights were canceled nationwide. While Congress passed a funding measure late Wednesday, officials said it could take days to restore normal operations and clear payroll backlogs.
3) Traders slashed the odds of a December US rate cut to below 50% after a string of Fed officials voiced skepticism about the need for a third straight move, citing the economy’s resilience and lingering uncertainty over inflation after the US shutdown. The question remains how the majority of policymakers are leaning, with several still uneasy about signs of labor-market weakness. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he didn’t support the US central bank’s last interest-rate cut, though he’s still undecided on the best course of action for its December policy meeting. Meantime, San Francisco Fed chief Mary Daly said it’s premature to decide whether policymakers should lower interest rates next month.

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On today's podcast:
1) President Trump signed legislation to end the longest government shutdown in US history, marking the official conclusion to a 43-day impasse that halted food aid to millions of households, canceled thousands of flights and forced federal workers to go unpaid for more than a month. Trump’s signature means the government can begin to resume normal operations, with federal workers expected back on the job starting Thursday. However it could still take days, or even weeks, for the federal bureaucracy to fully restart and dig out of the backlog after being closed since October 1st. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy told reporters Wednesday he anticipated it could take as long as a week to start lifting flight restrictions at major airports.
2) Democrats have returned to pressing President Trump on his ties to Jeffrey Epstein, highlighting a selection of emails in which the late financier and convicted sex trafficker suggested the president knew of his activities. A congressional committee on Wednesday released some 20,000 pages of documents, pivoting attention away from the ongoing government shutdown and forcing the White House to respond to an issue that has frustrated the president and drawn scrutiny from parts of his base. The new information came the same day that a new House lawmaker was officially sworn into office. Adelita Grijalva, an Arizona Democrat, immediately signed a petition forcing a vote on legislation to compel the Justice Department to release files on Epstein.
3) Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy implored European Union allies to overcome their divisions on the use of frozen Russian assets, saying fresh funding is critical for his war-battered economy to stay in the fight against Moscow. The EU has postponed until December a decision on tapping the Russian state assets to provide €140 billion ($162 billion) in loans to Ukraine, which needs new funding by early next year. Russia’s invasion has dragged well into its fourth year as Zelenskiy’s government deals with a battered economy and exhausted fighting forces in Europe’s worst conflict since World War II. With US funding halted, European governments have vowed to step up assistance to fend off a new threat from the Kremlin.

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