Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition

On today's podcast:
1) The US House of Representatives will be back at work Wednesday for the first time in 53 days to vote on a bill that would end the longest government shutdown record. The legislation would relieve the sharpest pain points, including delayed SNAP benefits, air travel chaos and government worker furloughs. But it won’t address the main trigger for the shutdown: the expiration of Obamacare premium subsidies that prompted Democrats to block a government funding bill in the first place. The small group of centrist Democrats who broke ranks with their party to end the shutdown won a promise from Senate Majority Leader John Thune that he’ll allow a vote on extending the subsidies - but no guarantees are in place. While some moderate Senate Republicans want to see the subsidies extended with conditions, like an income cap or minimum monthly payment, leading GOP voices on health-care policy are starting to pitch on alternative plans.
2) President Trump will host financial industry executives for dinner Wednesday at the White House, according to two officials familiar with the plans, the latest effort by the administration to bring the country’s business elite behind his policies. JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon is among the attendees, one of the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity to detail the president’s plans. Nasdaq’s Adena Friedman was also among the chief executive officers invited, along with Goldman Sachs Group’s David Solomon, BlackRock’s Larry Fink and Morgan Stanley’s Ted Pick, according to people briefed on the event. The dinner comes as Trump faces rising political pressure on the economy and affordability — issues that anchored Democratic electoral wins in New Jersey and Virginia last week.
3) Advanced Micro Devices - Nvidia's closest rival in AI chips - predicts accelerating sales growth over the next five years, driven by strong demand for its data center products. Annual revenue growth will average more than 35% over the next three to five years, Chief Executive Officer Lisa Su said Tuesday at a company event in New York. AMD’s AI data center revenue will increase by an average of 80% over the same period, she said. The stock rallied in extended trading Tuesday after executives also said adjusted profit will reach more than $20 a share and operating margin will exceed 35% in that time frame. AMD updated investors on its long-term outlook amid increasing concern that the massive spending on new computer systems for artificial intelligence work can’t continue at the current elevated levels.

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On today's podcast:
1) A record-setting 41-day US government shutdown is on a path to end as soon as Wednesday after the Senate passed a temporary funding measure backed by a group of eight centrist Democrats. The Senate’s 60-40 vote Monday comes amid escalating flight disruptions, food aid delays and frustrations in a federal workforce that has mostly gone without pay for more than a month. The Republican-controlled House must still approve the spending package, which keeps most of the government open through Jan. 30 and some agencies through Sept. 30. But Speaker Mike Johnson said he expects it will pass quickly.
2) Air travel disruptions mounted across the US as lawmakers pushed to end the federal government shutdown, with an air traffic controllers’ union warning of “the erosion of safety” as the critical workers missed their second-straight full paycheck. Almost 2,100 flights were canceled as of 6:15 p.m. in New York on Monday, according to data compiled by aviation analytics firm Cirium. That’s about 8.2% of the day’s 25,735 scheduled flights. Chicago O’Hare International Airport had the most cancellations, with nearly 25% of its scheduled flights scrapped. Over 16% of services in and out of Boston Logan Airport were scrubbed, as were 15% of trips at New York City’s LaGuardia Airport. The growing fallout stems from the Federal Aviation Administration’s directive to reduce flight capacity by 10% at the roughly 40 busiest US airports, a bid to alleviate what US aviation officials have said are signs of strain in the nation’s airspace system.
3) President Trump said he “at some point” would reduce the tariff rate on Indian goods, saying the US was getting “pretty close” to a trade deal with New Delhi. The comments were the latest signal of a possible thaw in the trade dispute that has soured the relationship between Washington and New Delhi. Earlier this year, Trump slapped additional tariffs on India’s exports to the US in part to pressure New Delhi to stop buying Russian oil, raising the rates on many Indian goods to 50%. That added tensions to an already contentious negotiation over what the US has cast as India’s high levies and other barriers on American goods.

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On today's podcast:
1) Democrats entered the shutdown seeking to renew tax credits to stave off insurance premium price hikes and to show voters they have the stomach for hardball negotiations in President Trump’s Washington. As the record-long shutdown neared its end more than a month later, they failed to achieve either. A group of eight Democrats on Sunday broke with the rest of their party — including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer — to vote with Republicans to advance a bill to re-open the government on the impasse’s 40th day. That plan doesn’t include the extension of the Affordable Care Act subsidies that Democrats staked their shutdown fight on. They did get a pledge for a separate vote on the health-care tax credits in the coming weeks, but the prospects of Democrats landing a win from that endeavor are far from certain.
2) More than 10,000 flights in the US were delayed or canceled on Sunday as snowy weather in Chicago added to the stress for airlines coping with a third day of US government-mandated restrictions on air travel. The bottlenecks were worst at New York’s airports, where federal officials imposed ground stops and ground delays to meter traffic. At LaGuardia Airport, more than half of departures were delayed, compared with 36% at Newark Liberty International Airport and 32% at John F. Kennedy International Airport, according to FlightAware. By late afternoon, 8,100 flights were delayed and 2,300 were canceled nationwide. Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport also faced hundreds of delays and cancellations as a winter storm threatened the airport, a major hub for United Airlines Inc. and American Airlines. About 190 flights were canceled at Delta Air Lines Inc.’s home base at Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport.
3) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Trump’s suggestion that Americans may receive a tariff “dividend” of at least $2,000 could come via the tax cuts passed in his signature economic policy bill earlier this year. Bessent was asked on ABC’s This Week about a social media post by Trump earlier Sunday that derided people who oppose tariffs and said a “dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone.” Trump has been stepping up his defense of his tariffs regime since the Supreme Court on Nov. 5 heard arguments for a suit to get them thrown out. Several justices seemed skeptical, raising the possibility many of the levies could be overturned, forcing more than $100 billion in refunds and taking away a centerpiece of his second term.

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Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week.

• In the US – a look ahead to earnings from Walt Disney and Paramount-Skydance.
• In the UK – a look ahead to Portugal’s Web Summit.
• In Asia – a look ahead to China Singles’ day.

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On today's podcast:
1) Airlines across the US have started canceling flights scheduled for the coming days, as the longest government shutdown in history upends air travel and leaves thousands of passengers scrambling to firm up plans. With about 700 Friday flights already canceled by the four largest airlines, the world’s busiest aviation market has become a flashpoint in the long-simmering clash between Republicans and Democrats over federal funding as President Trump ramps up pressure to forge a deal. The Republican-led administration has said the reductions are necessary to keep flying safe amid staffing shortages brought on by the shutdown. At least one top congressional Democrat has called for more transparency to ensure the move isn’t politically motivated.
2) Tesla Inc. shareholders approved a $1 trillion compensation package for Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk, the largest payout ever awarded to a corporate leader. More than 75% of the votes cast were in favor of the unprecedented pay plan, the company said Thursday at its annual meeting. The outcome caps a weekslong campaign by the electric vehicle maker’s board, its CEO and prominent retail investors to build support. The pay agreement clears a path for Musk, the world’s richest person, to become the first-ever trillionaire and expand his stake in Tesla to 25% or more over the next decade. To achieve the full payout, he’ll have to deliver on targets to significantly expand Tesla’s market value, revive its flagging car business and get the fledgling robotaxi and Optimus robotics efforts off the ground.
3) China’s exports unexpectedly contracted in October as global demand failed to offset the deepening slump in shipments to the US, dealing a blow to an economy already slowing amid sluggish consumer spending and investment at home. Exports fell for the first time in eight months, dropping 1.1% from a year earlier, according to official data released Friday. Shipments to all nations except the US rose 3.1%, not enough to compensate for the more than 25% decline to America. Chinese exports have been resilient until now, as other destinations made up for drops in shipments across the Pacific Ocean. Sales abroad had grown every month since February, when activity slowed because of the Lunar New Year holiday.

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On today's podcast:
1) The US will cut flight capacity by 10% at 40 high-volume markets across the country, though international routes will be spared, to alleviate pressure on air traffic controllers and the aviation system during what is now the longest government shutdown in history. The changes will start Friday, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said during a press briefing alongside the leader of the Federal Aviation Administration, Bryan Bedford. The agency plans to release the markets impacted on Thursday. The reductions are expected to be staggered, with US carriers informed Wednesday night that they should plan to cut flight volumes by 4% on Friday and 5% on Saturday, according to people familiar with the matter.
2) The US government shutdown has become the longest in history, and with no sign of a resolution soon its economic toll is deepening. Now in its 37th day, the shutdown has surpassed the previous record set in early 2019 during President Trump’s first term. Every week that passes costs the economy anywhere from $10 billion to $30 billion, based on analysts’ estimates, with several landing in the $15 billion range. Senate Democrats, bolstered by big election wins for their party Tuesday, are doubling down on demands for Republicans to negotiate extending Obamacare premium tax credits, or see the government shutdown drag on.
3) Zohran Mamdani clinched New York City’s mayoral race by campaigning against wealth inequality and promoting affordability. Now, he faces the challenge of delivering on the promises that got him elected while coming to the table with the city’s wealthiest residents, who have an outsized influence on the city’s politics, economy and revenue. At least one early Mamdani appointment shows that he is intent on taking a progressive approach toward business and economics. The mayor-elect has tapped former Federal Trade Commission chair Lina Khan to his transition team, a figure who raised the ire of corporations and dealmakers with her tough stances on antitrust cases. But Mamdani also said on Wednesday that he looks forward to meeting with JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Jamie Dimon and other business leaders to discuss the city’s future, emphasizing the need for collaboration despite policy differences.

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On today's podcast:
1) Democrats swept the three major local elections in the US on Tuesday by wider-than-expected margins, giving the beleaguered party a much-needed boost 10 months into President Donald Trump’s second term. In New York, voters elected 34-year-old Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist, as mayor after he deployed a social media-savvy campaign and joined up with two progressive icons, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Mamdani — who will be New York’s first Muslim and South Asian mayor when he takes office Jan. 1 — campaigned on making the global business hub more affordable by using higher taxes on the wealthy to pay for free buses and city-run grocery stores, overcoming many voters’ concerns about his pro-Palestinian views.
2) Abigail Spanberger, a 46-year-old former CIA officer who left the House of Representatives after three terms in January, will be the first female governor in Virginia, a state that’s front-and-center in the battle over the government shutdown and efforts to trim the federal workforce. Likewise in New Jersey, Representative Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot, won a race in which pocketbook concerns about utility bills, health care and schools were more central than culture war issues or government giveaways. About 6 in 10 voters in Virginia and New Jersey described themselves as “angry” or “dissatisfied” with the current state of the country, according to an exit poll conducted by the Associated Press, compared to just one-third who said they were “enthusiastic” or “satisfied.” Meanwhile, California voters passed a ballot measure that could flip as many as five congressional seats to Democrats from Republicans, handing Governor Gavin Newsom a major political victory in his fight against President Trump.
3) The fate of the majority of President Trump’s tariffs is in the hands of the US Supreme Court after lower courts ruled that they were issued illegally under an emergency law. The tariffs have remained in place to allow the Trump administration to appeal to the highest court, which is scheduled to hear arguments today. The Supreme Court case doesn’t touch upon the duties imposed on certain product categories using different legal foundations. For example, the Trump administration has put in place levies on steel, aluminum, automobiles, copper products and lumber by harnessing Section 232 of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act. Those tariffs depend on Commerce Department investigations that concluded that imports of such products pose a national security risk.

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Democrats swept the three major local elections in the US on Tuesday by wider-than-expected margins, giving the beleaguered party a much-needed boost 10 months into President Donald Trump’s second term.

From New York’s City Hall to Virginia, where Democrats picked up a gubernatorial seat, and out to California, the victories will bolster morale in a party that’s been reeling after failing to win the White House, Senate and House of Representatives just a year ago. 

In New York, voters elected 34-year-old Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist, as mayor after he deployed a social media-savvy campaign and joined up with two progressive icons, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. 

For reaction and analysis, host Doug Krizner speaks with:

- Jeanne Sheehan-Zaino, Democracy Visiting Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center and Bloomberg Politics Contributor

- Greg Giroux, Bloomberg Government senior reporter

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On today's podcast:
1) Zohran Mamdani’s lead heading into the New York City mayoral election has withstood a furious push from Republicans, establishment Democrats and a coalition of Wall Street dealmakers. Aspects of Mamdani’s campaign that some thought would doom his candidacy — his vociferous criticism of Israel’s actions in Gaza, his past calls to defund the police and his refusal to flee from the political label of socialist — haven’t turned off a plurality of New York voters, despite a torrent of campaign spending from some of the city’s wealthiest residents. Instead, the 34-year-old assemblyman’s campaign — with its focus on core economic concerns combined with an online charm offensive and occasional searing barb at his critics — is working well enough that some political observers see a model for future Democratic candidates and races. Nationally, Tuesday’s results could provide a muddled message for Democrats.
2) Governors’ races in Virginia and New Jersey and California’s redistricting ballot measure are among the elections on ballots Tuesday, providing a barometer of voter sentiment ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. While Mamdani’s progressive campaign has given him a lead in New York, the candidates leading the polls in governor’s races in New Jersey and Virginia — Representative Mikie Sherrill and former Representative Abigail Spanberger, respectively — come from the more centrist range of the Democratic spectrum.
The race in New Jersey has tightened in the past few weeks between Democratic Representative Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli, as voters express dismay over high electricity bills and general affordability issues under the state’s current Democratic governor. Republicans would love to eke out a victory there — even as polls narrowly favor Sherrill — after President Donald Trump endorsed Ciattarelli and called him “100% (PLUS!)” on the MAGA agenda.
In Virginia, Democratic Representative Abigail Spanberger looks likely to prevail over the Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. The huge number of federal workers in Northern Virginia, frustrated by the government shutdown and the DOGE cuts, gave Spanberger a built-in constituency. And she’s made sure to talk about issues key to local voters — inflation, schools, health care — rather than solely going with an anti-Trump message. If Democrats lose one of these races, expect even more hand-wringing over the party’s tarnished national brand and its inability to capitalize on Trump’s unpopularity.
3) As the government shutdown enters its 34th day, lawmakers face mounting pressure to reach a resolution. Major US airports are facing staffing shortages leading to ground delays, the distribution of food assistance is up in the air, and more federal workers are missing paychecks as the shutdown is on track to become the longest in history. Senators are increasingly optimistic about finding a path to reopen the government, but any resolution will likely have to wait until after tomorrow’s off-year elections, which could sway either side to move depending on the results.

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On today's podcast:
1) President Trump sat down with CBS' 60 Minutes - as heard on Bloomberg Radio - for a long-ranging discussion on the government shutdown, tariffs, and border security. Trump says immigration raids “haven’t gone far enough” despite videos showing physical confrontations among federal agents, immigrants and protesters. Trump also said that he could use the Insurrection Act to use professional military, instead of the National Guard, to US cities “if I wanted to.” The president’s comments come after his administration expanded a federal program that deputizes local police to enforce immigration laws, signing up nearly 16,000 officers across 40 states as part of an effort to boost deportations, according to data reviewed by Bloomberg News.
2) President Trump said he would skip attending the Supreme Court hearing this week over the legality of his worldwide tariffs regime. The court is scheduled on Wednesday to hear Trump’s appeal of a lower court’s ruling that many of his “Liberation Day” tariffs exceeded the president’s emergency power to regulate imports. Trump had said he felt an “obligation” to watch in person as the Supreme Court weighed his power to impose tariffs. If he had attended, he would have been the first sitting president in US history to attend oral arguments at the high court.
3) The summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Trump was a breakthrough in bilateral relationship where the Asian giant was treated as an “equal partner” of the US, according to David Daokui Li, a regular policy adviser to Beijing. Speaking to Bloomberg TV on Monday, Li described a sense of enthusiasm among his peers in Beijing following the leaders’ meeting in South Korea last week. The exchange led to a one-year trade truce, although it didn’t address core differences between the world’s two largest economies.

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