In this edition of Bondcast: Speakers’ Corner, Imogen Bachra is joined by NatWest Director of Innovation, David Greenwald, to explore one of the defining market themes of 2026: artificial intelligence. The discussion examines whether markets are pricing in AI-driven productivity too quickly, how AI could reshape inflation and central bank thinking, and why governments are increasingly viewing AI as a strategic geopolitical asset.

Key takeaways

* Markets remain optimistic about AI, but significant uncertainty surrounds the timing and scale of productivity gains.
* Infrastructure bottlenecks could keep AI investment inflationary before productivity becomes disinflationary.
* The largest productivity gains are already emerging in software development and routine knowledge work.
* Governments are treating AI as a strategic national capability rather than simply a commercial technology.
* Geopolitics is becoming an increasingly important driver of AI adoption, investment and market risk.

This episode was recorded on 25 June 2026.

The views expressed in this episode are not necessarily those of NatWest Group.

For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html

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In this new series of Bondcast Week Ahead, Imogen Bachra shares her thoughts on what's moving markets in the coming five days. 

In this week’s episode, Imogen Bachra is joined by Stuart Sparks and Giovanni Zanni to discuss what recent events mean for rates markets.

Fresh tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil prices higher once again, forcing markets to reassess the inflation outlook and the likely response from central banks. At the same time, softer-than-expected US inflation data has eased immediate pressure on the Federal Reserve, while political developments in Italy and the UK continue to shape market sentiment.

Key takeaways

* Softer US inflation has significantly reduced expectations of a near-term Fed rate hike.

* The Fed’s policy review task forces could have important long-term implications for inflation targeting and monetary policy.

* Markets are increasingly pricing another ECB hike, although the underlying macro data remains relatively benign.

* The Bank of England continues to prioritise evidence of second-round inflation effects before tightening policy further.

* Renewed geopolitical tensions remain the biggest short-term risk for inflation expectations.

* Political developments in both Italy and the UK continue to influence European bond markets, with fiscal policy likely to become a larger market theme later in the year.

Host: Imogen Bachra, Head of Economics and Markets Strategy

Guests: Giovanni Zanni, Chief Euro Area Economist

Stuart Sparks, Head of US Rate Strategy

This episode was recorded on 16 July 2026.

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In this special edition of Bondcast Speakers' Corner, Imogen Bachra is joined by NatWest Group International Advisor Scott Livingstone to examine the geopolitical landscape and what it could mean for rates markets over the months and years ahead.

Recorded against the backdrop of renewed strikes in the Middle East, Scott discusses why he still believes the current tensions represent a “bumpy off-ramp” rather than the start of a broader regional war, while highlighting the key political and military developments investors should monitor.

The conversation then broadens to explore the US-China relationship, Taiwan, Europe’s strategic position, emerging geopolitical winners, and the underappreciated risks that could shape global markets beyond today’s headlines.

Key takeaways:

* A volatile path to de-escalation: neither the US nor Iran has the appetite for full-scale conflict, but investors should expect an extended period of uncertainty rather than a swift resolution.

* Political calendars matter: US mid-terms, Israel’s elections and domestic political considerations will increasingly shape geopolitical decision-making.

* Taiwan remains a long-term risk: While China’s military modernisation continues, domestic political events in both China and Taiwan may make 2028 a more consequential year than 2027.

* Europe faces strategic choices: As global power becomes increasingly concentrated, Europe must decide what role it wants within a changing international order.

* Middle powers could be winners: Countries such as India, Saudi Arabia and Turkey may benefit from pursuing pragmatic, multi-aligned foreign policies amid growing geopolitical fragmentation.

* Technology is reshaping geopolitics: Competition over semiconductors, resilient supply chains and increasingly, space infrastructure, is becoming just as strategically important as traditional energy security.

This episode was recorded on 10 July 2026.

The views expressed in this episode are not necessarily those of NatWest Group.

For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html

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Imogen Bachra looks ahead to a week shaped by renewed Middle East risk, key US inflation data, Chair Warsh’s testimony, UK political uncertainty, and the start of earnings season.

Key takeaways

• Markets may need to price a higher geopolitical risk premium after renewed escalation in the Middle East.
• Oil prices, shipping costs, and physical flows through the Strait remain important indicators of how markets are assessing regional risk.
• US CPI will be a key focus, with expectations for a decline in overall consumer prices and lower year-over-year headline and core inflation rates.
• Chair Warsh’s testimony before Congress may offer limited forward guidance on rates, but could provide more detail on the Federal Reserve’s taskforces.
• UK markets are likely to focus on political developments, the next Labour leader, and the implications of the Chancellor appointment for borrowing and fiscal policy.
• Earnings season begins with financials, while the broader macro focus on hyperscalers and technology companies comes later in the month.

Topics covered

• Middle East geopolitical risk and market risk premium
• Oil prices, shipping costs, and the Strait
• US inflation and CPI data
• Federal Reserve policy and Chair Warsh’s Congressional testimony
• UK politics, fiscal discipline, borrowing risk, and the Chancellor appointment
• Rachel Reeves’ Mansion House speech
• Corporate earnings season, financials, hyperscalers, and technology companies

Questions this episode helps answer

• What market themes matter most in the week commencing 13 July?

Oil prices are back in focus, markets are repricing central bank risk, and politics is adding another layer of uncertainty across Europe and the UK. In this episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Deepika Dayal and Oriane Parmentier discuss whether markets are moving too quickly to price further rate hikes – and what investors should watch next.

In this episode, we discuss:

• Middle East tensions and oil prices: why renewed geopolitical risk has pushed markets to reassess inflation and rate expectations.
• ECB pricing: whether recent euro rates repricing has gone too far, and why July still looks too soon for a policy shift.
• Fed outlook: why short-term oil moves may complicate the picture, but still leave the Fed in wait-and-see mode.
• US inflation and growth: why higher oil prices could act as both an inflation impulse and a tax on the consumer.
• Bank of England risks: why the UK still faces the clearest upside risk to policy rates, even if hikes look more likely later than sooner.
• France and OATs: what Marine Le Pen’s 2027 election intentions mean for French political risk and bond spreads.
• UK politics and gilts: why fiscal policy, borrowing risks and autumn policy announcements may matter more than near-term leadership headlines.
• Leverage ratio framework: what the Bank of England’s latest consultation could mean for bank demand for gilts — and why it may not be a game changer yet.

Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.

This episode was recorded on 9 July 2026, and captions are automatically generated.

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Oil prices have retraced to pre-conflict levels following the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) and the reopening of the Strait. But does that rebound accurately reflect what’s happening in the real economy?

In this special episode of Bondcast: Speakers Corner, Imogen Bachra is joined by NatWest economist Aastha Gupta, who specialises in global trade, to examine whether markets have moved ahead of the underlying fundamentals. They explore why physical shipping flows remain well below normal, why freight and insurance costs continue to matter for inflation, and what this means for rates markets and central bank expectations.

Key takeaways

* Markets have rapidly repriced geopolitical risk, with oil prices returning to pre-conflict levels.
* Physical shipping volumes have only partially recovered and remain well below pre-crisis norms.
* Freight rates have eased but continue to trade above historical baselines, reflecting ongoing supply constraints.
* Marine insurance and compliance requirements remain important bottlenecks to restoring shipping capacity.
* Shipping demand remains resilient as firms continue to reroute cargo, build inventories and front-load trade ahead of tariff deadlines.
* The recovery in global trade is likely to be gradual and uneven rather than a quick return to normal.
* The gap between financial market pricing and physical trade dynamics suggests inflation risks may remain more persistent than markets currently expect.

This episode was recorded on 30 June 2026.

The views expressed in this episode are not necessarily those of NatWest Group.

For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html

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Imogen Bachra shares her quick take on the big themes and events likely to move markets over the coming week. It’s a lighter but still market-moving calendar, with UK and French political risks, the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee report, the latest signals from the Fed and ECB, and renewed focus on dollar-yen intervention risk.

This week on Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Ian Vanderhorn, and Oriane Parmentier unpack a deceptively important week for rates markets: a mixed US labour report, softer European inflation, central-bank caution at Sintra, and growing focus on the Bank of England’s balance sheet and gilt market resilience. The big takeaway: markets may be pricing out near-term hikes, but the path ahead is anything but simple.

Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.

This episode was recorded on 2 July 2026.

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In the first episode of Bondcast Speakers’ Corner, host Imogen Bachra is joined by James Bucknall and Iain Budge to discuss one of the most closely watched regulatory topics in UK rates markets: the leverage ratio framework.

With the UK facing sizeable financing needs, ongoing quantitative tightening (QT), and growing debate around who will absorb future gilt supply, the conversation explores whether changes to leverage rules could unlock additional demand from bank treasuries and support government funding markets.

Topics raised:

* The Financial Policy Committee's (FPC) July review of the leverage ratio framework is an important event for UK rates markets.
* Changes to leverage rules could support Treasury Bill market liquidity and increase bank demand for gilts.
* The gilt market itself remains resilient, with funding conditions holding up well despite episodes of heightened volatility.
* Any easing of leverage constraints would likely benefit a broader range of assets, not just gilts.
* Regulatory reform may become increasingly relevant as QT progresses and more duration moves onto private sector balance sheets.

Host: Imogen Bachra (Head of Economics and Markets Strategy)
Guests: Iain Budge (Head of Banks and Building Societies Solutions)
James Bucknall (Head of Sterling Interest Rate Trading)

The views expressed in this episode are not necessarily those of NatWest Group.

Recorded on 18 June 2026

For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html

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