Oil prices have retraced to pre-conflict levels following the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) and the reopening of the Strait. But does that rebound accurately reflect what’s happening in the real economy?

In this special episode of Bondcast: Speakers Corner, Imogen Bachra is joined by NatWest economist Aastha Gupta, who specialises in global trade, to examine whether markets have moved ahead of the underlying fundamentals. They explore why physical shipping flows remain well below normal, why freight and insurance costs continue to matter for inflation, and what this means for rates markets and central bank expectations.

Key takeaways

* Markets have rapidly repriced geopolitical risk, with oil prices returning to pre-conflict levels.
* Physical shipping volumes have only partially recovered and remain well below pre-crisis norms.
* Freight rates have eased but continue to trade above historical baselines, reflecting ongoing supply constraints.
* Marine insurance and compliance requirements remain important bottlenecks to restoring shipping capacity.
* Shipping demand remains resilient as firms continue to reroute cargo, build inventories and front-load trade ahead of tariff deadlines.
* The recovery in global trade is likely to be gradual and uneven rather than a quick return to normal.
* The gap between financial market pricing and physical trade dynamics suggests inflation risks may remain more persistent than markets currently expect.

This episode was recorded on 30 June 2026.

The views expressed in this episode are not necessarily those of NatWest Group.

For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html

Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

Imogen Bachra shares her quick take on the big themes and events likely to move markets over the coming week. It’s a lighter but still market-moving calendar, with UK and French political risks, the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee report, the latest signals from the Fed and ECB, and renewed focus on dollar-yen intervention risk.

This week on Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Ian Vanderhorn, and Oriane Parmentier unpack a deceptively important week for rates markets: a mixed US labour report, softer European inflation, central-bank caution at Sintra, and growing focus on the Bank of England’s balance sheet and gilt market resilience. The big takeaway: markets may be pricing out near-term hikes, but the path ahead is anything but simple.

Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.

This episode was recorded on 2 July 2026.

For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html

Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In the first episode of Bondcast Speakers’ Corner, host Imogen Bachra is joined by James Bucknall and Iain Budge to discuss one of the most closely watched regulatory topics in UK rates markets: the leverage ratio framework.

With the UK facing sizeable financing needs, ongoing quantitative tightening (QT), and growing debate around who will absorb future gilt supply, the conversation explores whether changes to leverage rules could unlock additional demand from bank treasuries and support government funding markets.

Topics raised:

* The Financial Policy Committee's (FPC) July review of the leverage ratio framework is an important event for UK rates markets.
* Changes to leverage rules could support Treasury Bill market liquidity and increase bank demand for gilts.
* The gilt market itself remains resilient, with funding conditions holding up well despite episodes of heightened volatility.
* Any easing of leverage constraints would likely benefit a broader range of assets, not just gilts.
* Regulatory reform may become increasingly relevant as QT progresses and more duration moves onto private sector balance sheets.

Host: Imogen Bachra (Head of Economics and Markets Strategy)
Guests: Iain Budge (Head of Banks and Building Societies Solutions)
James Bucknall (Head of Sterling Interest Rate Trading)

The views expressed in this episode are not necessarily those of NatWest Group.

Recorded on 18 June 2026

For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html

Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this new series of Bondcast Week Ahead, Imogen Bachra shares her thoughts on what's moving markets in the coming five days. 

This week on Bondcast, Imogen Bachra is joined by Oriane Palmentier to discuss rates markets in the UK and Europe.

Key topics: 

* The sharp repricing lower in UK gilt yields and evolving Bank of England expectations

* Whether markets are becoming overly optimistic on oil, inflation and fiscal risks

* What to watch during next week’s ECB Sintra conference

* Euro area funding plans for the second half of 2026

* What to make of French spreads despite renewed political focus

Host: Imogen Bachra (Head of Economics and Markets Strategy)

Guest: Oriane Parmentier (European Rates Strategist)

This episode was recorded on 25 June 2026.

Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.

For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html

 Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This video is about My Movie 1In this new series of Bondcast Week Ahead, Imogen Bachra shares her thoughts on what's moving markets in the coming five days. 

This week’s episode focuses on a pivotal week for global central banks as markets shift attention away from geopolitical headlines in the Middle East and back toward monetary policy. The discussion covers the first Federal Reserve meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh, the Bank of England’s latest decision, the ECB outlook, and implications for global rates markets.

 Key takeaways:

* The Fed turned more hawkish in Warsh’s first meeting, despite no change in rates. Warsh avoided giving forward guidance, but the committee’s dot plot shifted higher, leading markets to price in rate hikes sooner than previously expected.

* Warsh announced five Fed task forces to review communications, balance sheet strategy, data usage, productivity trends, and the inflation framework. While these could eventually support a more dovish policy, they are unlikely to affect near-term decisions.

* We now forecast 50bps of cuts in the US in 2027 rather than beginning in late 2026.

 * The Bank of England left policy unchanged and provided little new guidance, but persistent domestic inflation pressures and strong wage growth should not be overlooked.

* The ECB’s June rate hike is viewed as an insurance move rather than the start of an aggressive tightening cycle, with falling oil prices reducing the case for further hikes.

Host: Imogen Bachra (Head of Economics and Markets Strategy)

Guests: Ian VanderHorn (Macro Strategist) and Oriane Parmentier (European Rates Strategist)

This episode was recorded on 18 June 2026.

You can also find this episode of Bondcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.  

Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.

For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html

Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this new series of Bondcast Week Ahead, Imogen Bachra shares her thoughts on what's moving markets in the coming five days. 

This week Imogen Bachra is joined by Ian VanderHorn and Oriane Parmentier to discuss some key central bank decisions. They examine the latest developments from the ECB, previews next week’s Fed and Bank of England meetings, and explore how geopolitical tensions, inflation dynamics and politics are shaping market expectations.
 
Key topics:
 
* The ECB remains data-dependent but has not closed the door on additional rate hikes.
* Strong US labour market data complicates the inflation outlook but does not yet point to a significant inflation reacceleration.
* The first Fed meeting under Kevin Warsh will be closely scrutinised for signs of a shift in policy communication.
* The Bank of England meeting may appear routine but could influence expectations for July and beyond.
* Fiscal and political risks in both the US and UK remain important themes for rates markets in the second half of the year.
 
This episode was recorded on 11 June 2026.
 
 
You can also find this episode of Bondcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.  

Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.
 
For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html
 
Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html