Following a 25 basis point cut by the European Central Bank (ECB), host Joann Spadigam is joined by Kevin Cummins and Ross Walker to dissect the nuance of central bank positions. As we enter 2025, how are markets thinking about key economic data prints? And what are the likely cutting patterns as we proceed further into easing cycles?

Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episode in this series as soon as they're available and navigate to natwest.com/yearahead to get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy in 2025.

NB. This episode was recorded on 12 December 2024.

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This week host Joann Spadigam is joined by guests Oriane Parmentier and Kevin Cummins to update on recent events shaping rates markets. All eyes, of course, are currently on France, where political turmoil is influencing spreads, while in the euro area what can we expect ahead of a rates decision next week? Finally, they discuss what to expect from US employment data, and how the Fed may react.

Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episode in this series as soon as they're available and navigate to natwest.com/yearahead to get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy in 2025.

NB. This episode was recorded on 4 December 2024

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In this special edition of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra is joined by Brian Daingerfield and Joann Spadigam to discuss some key themes from our Year Ahead 2025 report, an in-depth guide to what will be shaping economies and markets over the coming 12 months. Following a year of change at the ballot box, new governments have made political promises and fiscal commitments, with increases to government debt on the horizon. How these decisions affect inflation and therefore terminal bank rates is an open-ish question… but the answer is not lower. Finally, they discuss the political backdrop going into 2025, and crucially, how markets are thinking about Trump 2.0.

Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episode in this series as soon as they're available and navigate to natwest.com/yearahead to get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy in 2025.

NB. This episode was recorded on 21 November 2024

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This week it’s a podcast crossover, as Imogen Bachra and Brian Daingerfield deliver a Bondcast-meets-Currency Exchange special. High on the agenda is what the magnitude of Donald Trump’s election victory means for currencies and policy rate decisions, both in the near and long-term, as the US faces tax cuts and importers look set for tariffs. Away from the polls, both the Fed and the Bank of England cut rates this week by 25 basis points. To what extent were they both doing so with revised outlooks for future inflation? Listen in to find out. 

This episode was recorded on 8 November 2024

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Remember to subscribe so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ‘like’ button so it’s easier for others to find. And if you have any questions you’d like answered on the podcast, reach out directly or on Bloomberg – or email [email protected].

Join host Joann Spadigam, and guests Deepika Dayal and Ross Walker as they analyse a busy week for rates markets. In the UK, markets are processing a higher than expected set of Government borrowing needs, so what might this mean for the Bank of England’s terminal rate in 2025? And in the EU, the European Central Bank (ECB) may also look to cut less aggressively next year. Meanwhile, in the US there’s a presidential election/Fed decision mashup for markets to consider, with both long- and short-term implications for the economy. 

We did say it’s been busy. 

This episode was recorded on 31 October 2024 🎃👻🕸

For any terms used please refer to this glossary:  https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html

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Remember to subscribe so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ‘like’ button so it’s easier for others to find. And if you have any questions you’d like answered on the podcast, reach out directly or on Bloomberg – or email [email protected].

This week Imogen Bachra is joined by Brian Daingerfield and Giovanni Zanni to discuss rates moves in the US, the UK and Europe. What was an un-callable US presidential race based on polling data has become a tussle in betting markets, with Trump the clear favourite. Meanwhile in the UK, the prospect of new fiscal rules is giving markets something to think about, and in Europe dovish tones are affecting the rates outlook. 

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NB: This was recorded on 24 October 2024. 
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The European Central Bank (ECB) surprised few by cutting its base rate by 25 basis points (bp) on Thursday, but was there anything to learn from the messaging around its decision? This week host Imogen Bachra and Joann Spadigam scrutinise the latest from rates markets and central banks, where data dependence on inflation remains à la mode in the UK and Europe. Lastly, they look ahead to British Chancellor Rachel Reeves' first Budget, and whether the market may be surprised by the overall funding requirement. (Hint: they think so). 

This episode was recorded on 17 October 2024.

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Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast as soon as they’re available.

This week the Bondcast team unpicks higher-than-expected Consumer Price Index data in the US, and shares where they think rates will go from here. In the UK, recent yield increases have met our targets, but how might upcoming data next week affect the curve? They also debrief on the French Budget and look ahead to the next European Central Bank decision on rates. 

This episode was recorded on 10 October 2024.

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Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast as soon as they’re available.

This week Imogen Bachra and Joann Spadigam ruminate about rates markets on either side of the Channel. In the UK, markets appear to be waking up to fiscal concerns, and have had to take into account recent remarks from Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey. Meanwhile, how might the euro area's falling inflation affect future decisions on rates? Finally, to France, where markets are waiting for next week's budget. 

This episode was recorded on 3 October 2024.

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Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast as soon as they’re available.

This week, host Joann Spadigam is joined by Deepika Dayal and Ross Walker to discuss all things rates. In Europe, what is the market's attitude towards October's European Central Bank meeting, and what is happening to spreads in euro-denominated debt? In the UK the Labour conference had analysts pouring over signs for a shift in fiscal policy, while the Fed's focus on employment numbers takes centre stage in the US.

This episode was recorded on 26 September 2024.

For any terms used please refer to https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html.

Please view our full disclaimer https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html.

Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast as soon as they’re available.