Bondcast - The Rates Podcast

This week Ross Walker and Kevin Cummins discuss central bank rates decisions in the US and the UK. Markets had all caught up by the time the Fed announced its 50 basis point cut, but remain less certain about further cuts in 2024 and how to interpret employment figures. In the UK, the Bank of England's decision to hold rates was arguably hawkish, but spurred by that familiar bugbear... high services inflation. Looking ahead, how might the UK's fiscal approach affect the terminal rate of this current easing cycle? 

This episode was recorded on 19 September 2024.

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With the cutting cycle among major central banks under way, Giovanni Zanni, Kevin Cummins and Paul Robson talk all things rates markets. Ahead of the much anticipated rate decision at the Fed next week, the mood is very much for a 25 basis point (bp) cut in the US – even if the door is open just enough to allow for 50. In the UK, the next decision on rates seems more finely balanced following a close decision to cut in August. In Europe, a further cut of 25bp on Thursday seemed almost inevitable. Looking longer term, however, where might terminal rates eventually settle?

NB: This was recorded on 12 September 2024.

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In an early ode to autumn, our Bondcast trio predict a season of missed targets and not-so-mellow economic conditions. This week host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Deepika Dayal to catch up on how late summer’s fruitful developments have affected bond markets, and where they go from here. In the US, all eyes are on jobs numbers and whether the Fed will cut in 50 or 25bp clips. And in France it’s bonjour to incoming PM Michel Barnier… but will his appointment soothe the political pangs? The early protests suggest not. Not so much an ode to autumn as an oh dear. 

NB: This was recorded on 5 September 2024.

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It’s been a big week for rates markets. Imogen Bachra, Joann Spadigam, and Kevin Cummins dig into the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates on hold, and whether markets are right to expect a cut as soon as September. Speaking of cuts, we take a closer look at the Bank of England’s decision to trim 25 basis points off the Bank Rate – the first cut in 4 years – and what that means for UK interest rates in the months ahead. Finally, the Bondcast crew dig into recent euro area GDP and inflation figures and discuss what that means for future rate cuts from the European Central Bank.  

We’ll be taking a break from the podcast the rest of August, but we’ll see you all again in September.

NB: This was recorded on 1 August 2024. 

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Joe Biden’s withdrawal from this year’s presidential race means “Veep” Kamala Harris will likely face Donald Trump. How are markets affected? This week Imogen Bachra is joined by Brian Daingerfield and Joann Spadigam to discuss not only US politics, but the run-up to another finely-balanced interest rates decision in the UK and the impact of pension reform in France. 

This episode was recorded on 25 July 2024.

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Not so good news for the doves on the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, as persistent services inflation may yet stall an August rate cut. This week Imogen Bachra and Joann Spadigam read the runes on UK and European markets, and share their views on yield curves.

This episode was recorded on 18 July 2024.

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This week host Joann Spadigam is joined by Kevin Cummins to talk rates news in Europe and the US. With more good data on inflation, might the Fed change its stance on when to reduce rates? Maybe, maybe not, but with more data on the way, it can bide its time. In France, what does the latest round of election news mean for euro spreads?  

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This episode was recorded on 11 July 2024.

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While the UK election results lit few fireworks for markets, the same can’t be said of political events elsewhere. This week host Imogen Bachra is joined by Brian Daingerfield and Joann Spadigam to talk about the fiscal challenge facing the UK, in the US how betting markets view a Joe Biden victory (or drop-out) amid many permutations, and in France what we can expect from the second round of voting in the parliamentary elections.

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This episode was recorded on 5 July 2024.

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Ahead of elections in France and the UK, how are markets pricing in possible outcomes? This week Imogen Bachra and Joann Spadigam consider how bonds are being affected and what clues markets are looking for. While they’re confident that a Labour victory has been priced in to current spreads, across the channel there is far less certainty about the eventual political outcome.  

This episode was recorded on 27 June 2024. 

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With inflation now at its target, what were the prospects that the Bank of England would cut its base rate? Not much, according to Imogen Bachra and Joann Spadigam, who this week look at both the reasons for a hold, and whether the Monetary Policy Committee is becoming just a bit more dovish. Hint: it is. Away from the UK, they cover elections in France and Germany’s Q3 funding update.  

This episode was recorded on 20 June '24.
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