The Currency Exchange - An FX Podcast by NatWest

...such is Paul Robson's assessment of the UK economy and the prospects for sterling. This week he and Brian Daingerfield also discuss rate cutting developments with the euro and latest news in the US presidential election race. 

NB: This was recorded on 12 September 2024.

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Returning from the August break, the Currency Exchange team ask how the US election race is affecting markets. This week Eimear Daly is joined by Brian Daingerfield to discuss the early days of Kamala Harris’ bid for White House glory, and whether she can continue the political momentum in three swing states. They also examine (lament, even) the prospects for US jobs data, the extent to which a Trump victory or loss is being priced into USD rates and, long-term, what the election outcome means for peace and stability in Eastern Europe.   

NB: This was recorded on 5 September 2024.

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The Bank of England cut Bank Rate by 25 basis points this week while the Fed opted for a hold, so what does all of this mean for the outlook for GBP and USD in the months ahead? Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson take a closer look, and they also discuss the impact of the Bank of Japan’s decision to go in the other direction and hike rates for just the second time in 17 years.

We’ll be taking a break from the podcast the rest of August, but we’ll see you all again in September.
  
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NB: This was recorded on 1 August 2024. 
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…so just another week in FX markets. Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race added more drama to the US political narrative, but what does the handover to Kamala Harris mean for markets? This week Brian Daingerfield is joined by Paul Robson to discuss currency markets in the US and the UK, where uncertainty shrouds the Bank of England’s decision on interest rates next week. 

This episode was recorded on 25 July 2024.

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This week, Alvaro Vivanco and Eimear Daly dig deeper into some of the big drivers for FX in the Americas with a particular focus on Mexico, Brazil, Colombia and Peru.

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NB: This was recorded on 18 July 2024. 

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This week Brian Daingerfield is joined by Kevin Cummins to talk about recent, encouraging data on US inflation. But one print can’t rule them all: the Fed needs to weigh unemployment and services inflation data too, among other signals, when deciding whether, when and by how much to cut. Despite the Fed being in full data dependence mode, the room to interpret information differently means there’s no certain path for policy.

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This episode was recorded on 11 July 2024.

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In a period of potential (ok, likely) political change in the UK and France, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson ask how currency markets account for risks around election time. Whereas a Labour victory appears priced into the level of sterling, can the same be said of France's effects on the euro? In the US, of course, all eyes are on the upcoming Presidential election, and what sentiment over Donald Trump and Joe Biden's fitness for office may mean for the dollar.

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This episode was recorded on 3 July 2024. 

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This week Eimear Daly is joined by Alvaro Vivanco to discuss currencies in emerging markets. They cover developments across Latin America, and share their views on what’s driving valuations of the South African rand.  

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This episode was recorded on 27 June 2024. 

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This week Brian Daingerfield is joined by special guest Joann Spadigam to talk about the political movements in Europe, and the prospects for President Macron in the upcoming elections. They cover how the uncertainty is affecting financial markets and what a win for the extreme left or right may mean in the longer term.

This episode was recorded on 20 June '24. 
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After a week of further election announcements, an element of political risk has returned to FX markets. In this episode, Eimear Daly is joined by Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson to discuss how the backdrop is affecting the fortunes of major currencies, amid encouraging inflation news in the US.  

This episode was recorded on 13 June '24. 

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