This week host Tokunbo Lawal is joined by Ian Vanderhorn and Kevin Cummins to discuss the fortunes of the both the US and Canadian dollars. In the US, recent data suggests that the currency may have to contend with a Fed cutting rate that is slower than had been anticipated. While in Canada, the central bank's stance is that because interest rates are still in restrictive policy, there is some headroom to ease the effects of potential tariff increases under Trump. But what will all of this mean for both currencies?

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NB. This episode was recorded on 12 December 2024

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This week Eimear Daly is joined by Giovanni Zanni to dissect the French political crisis, following Prime Minister Michel Barnier's departure. They ask what has happened, and why, plus what next for the country and Europe more widely – and how markets have bought the rumour, and sold the fact. 

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This episode was recorded on 5 December 2024. 
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In this special edition of The Currency Exchange, host Brian Daingerfield is joined by Paul Robson for a closer look at sterling and the US dollar as we head into 2025.

Where 2024 was characterised by political change, markets will examine the follow-on in 2025 – what higher fiscal commitments may do to inflation targets, bank rates and, ultimately, the relative performance of currencies. In the US, that means contending with Trump 2.0, while in the UK unprecedented fiscal commitments may help sterling’s current strength. Lastly they touch on how China-related risks might affect the fortunes of the Australian and NZ dollars, and whether the Canadian currency may diverge from the US dollar.

Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episode in this series as soon as they're available and navigate to natwest.com/yearahead to get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy in 2025.

NB: This was recorded on 21 November 2024.

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This week it’s a podcast crossover, as Imogen Bachra and Brian Daingerfield deliver a Bondcast-meets-Currency Exchange special. High on the agenda is what the magnitude of Donald Trump’s election victory means for currencies and policy rate decisions, both in the near and long-term, as the US faces tax cuts and importers look set for tariffs. Away from the polls, both the Fed and the Bank of England cut rates this week by 25 basis points. To what extent were they both doing so with revised outlooks for future inflation? Listen in to find out. 

This episode was recorded on 8 November 2024

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This week Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss what uncertainty in both the UK and US means for FX, ahead of some key dates. Looking to the UK Budget, it appears as though borrowing needs will require accommodative monetary policy, potentially affecting Sterling. The US presidential election also looms and can developments in betting markets be trusted? 

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NB: This was recorded on 24 October 2024. 
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This week Eimear Daly is joined by Alvaro Vivanco to discuss moves in emerging market currencies. They ask how the macro environment is affecting matters, analyse why some currencies have underperformed and find that many market participants are adopting a wait-and-see approach. They also look at how the outcome of the US elections may affect Poland, especially in relation to the war in Ukraine. 

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NB: This was recorded on 17 October 2024. 
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With less than 25 days to go until the US presidential elections, Eimear Daly is joined by Brian Daingerfield to discuss how the outcome may affect the fortunes of the dollar, as well as the US economy. Given the continuity of Democratic policy courtesy of the incumbent, it looks like markets are pricing in, and pricing out, a Trump victory. But does this extend to potential Republican control of the White House, the Senate and the House?

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NB: This was recorded on 10 October 2024. 
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Amid the concerning escalation of attacks and reprisals in the Middle East, Paul Robson is joined by special guest and International Advisor Scott Livingstone to talk about geopolitics in the region and beyond. They discuss the speed at which tensions are rising, the escalation with Iran and how markets may be affected. Beyond the Middle East, they discuss how the US presidential race may affect international relations and China's approach to foreign policy. 

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NB: This was recorded on 3 October 2024. 
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This week markets on both sides of the Atlantic were subject to diverging decisions towards monetary policy. Join Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson as they analyse the Fed's decision to cut rates by 50 basis points in the US, and the Bank of England's decision to keep things unchanged for the UK. In the longer run, might this difference lead to some relative strength for sterling?

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NB: This was recorded on 19 September 2024.
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...such is Paul Robson's assessment of the UK economy and the prospects for sterling. This week he and Brian Daingerfield also discuss rate cutting developments with the euro and latest news in the US presidential election race. 

NB: This was recorded on 12 September 2024.

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Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Currency Exchange as soon as they’re available.