Prediction markets have become one of the most disruptive forces in global betting, and Brazil has just drawn a clear line.

In today’s episode of iGaming Daily, Fernando Noodt is joined by Leonardo Biazzi and Ana Maria Menezes to break down Brazil’s move to restrict prediction markets, block platforms and treat event-based derivatives as part of the country’s existing gambling framework.

The discussion explores what this means for major players such as Kalshi and Polymarket, whether Brazil is taking a coordinated regulatory stance, and how this could develop ahead of the country’s presidential election.

In this episode:

•  Why Brazil is cracking down on prediction markets 
•  What the decision means for Kalshi and Polymarket 
•  How event-based derivatives are being treated under Brazilian gambling law 
•  Whether prediction markets will challenge the decision in court 
•  Why Brazil may be missing an opportunity to regulate instead of prohibit 
•  How Lula’s election-year gambling agenda shapes the debate 
•  Whether this is the end of prediction markets in Brazil or just the start of a longer battle 

This is a major moment for Brazil’s betting market and a key test case for how governments may approach prediction markets globally.

Host: Fernando Noodt
Guests: Leonardo Biazzi & Ana Maria Menezes

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