Broken Pie Chart

Broken Pie Chart

By Derek MooreBusinessInvesting
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Broken Pie Chart episodes

  • US Debt Down Grade Effects | Interest Rates Effect on Option Prices | US Treasury Yield Curve Dis-inverting? | US Debt Massive Expansion

    Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli are back at it discussing how higher interest rates have impacted the price of call and put options. They use some examples of what happens to options prices due to rates and dividends. Then they discuss the recent rise in long term treasury rates, the downgrade of US Treasury debt, and what if any effect the US Treasury issuing massive amounts of new treasury bonds into the market may have. Exploring the 36-month drawdown in the US Aggregate Bond Index compared to other periods. Finally, they check in on how the 3rd year of a presidential cycle is going and then move on to some recommendations.

    What effect do higher rates have on option premiums?

    How are dividends factored into the prices of options?

    Delving into examples of the value of cost of carry interest rates into call prices

    The longer end of the treasury curve includes 10 years to 20 years out.

    More supply of US Treasury bonds issued by the treasury causing higher rates due to increased supply.

    Best and worst market months historically during the 3rd year of the US Presidential cycle

    Size of net interest payments expected over the next year.

    US State and Local income tax receipts falling?

    How net interest debt payments are now larger than Social Security, Defense, and Medicare/Medicaid

    Does the US Debt downgrade matter?

    How sovereign debt is a relative game as many countries have growing debt to GDP.

    The US Aggregate Bond Index is still in 36 months and counting drawdown due to rising rates.

    Will the US treasury curve un-invert?

    Debating whether a curve reflating involves lower short rates or long rates rising?

    Bill Gross bearish on 10-year bonds believing curve may dis-invert by 10 year rising

    Mentioned in this Episode:

    Cheapest (SPX) PUT Protection You've Ever Seen? | S&P 500 Index Rebalancing | Bank of Japan Hawkishnesshttps://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/cheapest-spx-put-protection-youve-ever-seen-s-p-500/id1432836154?i=1000623047871

    Does Inflation Matter? | Make More by Losing Less? | Volatility and Cost of Hedging | Someone Buys a lot of VIX Calls

    https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/does-inflation-matter-make-more-by-losing-less-volatility/id1432836154?i=1000621261669

    Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

    Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

    Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr

    Contact Derek [email protected]

    50 min
  • Cheapest (SPX) PUT Protection You've Ever Seen? | S&P 500 Index Rebalancing | Bank of Japan Hawkishness

    Derek Moore responds to a Bloomberg chart highlighting how cheap protective puts are right now according to Bank of America research. At least since 2008, and why it might be good to be hedged when it's cheap rather than waiting for a market crash to happen first. Then he explains some requirements for a stock to get included in the S&P 500 Index, when it regularly rebalances, and how relaxing the rules on multi share class stocks might pave the way for stocks like AirBnB to potentially be added to the S&P 500 Index at some point. Finally, while you were sleeping the Bank of Japan is going to loosen the cap on the JGP bonds to 1% and what that may mean if anything.

    The Bloomberg graph showing how cheap protective puts are on the S&P 500 Index right now.

    BofA points out 5% out of the money options are cheap and payoffs larger than they've been.

    Why being hedged all the time makes sense.

    How protection gets expensive when everyone "needs" it so why not be hedged when its cheap?

    S&P 500 Index rebalancing periods and what it means.

    NDX Nasdaq 100 special rebalancing to relieve too few stocks being too highly weighted.

    Requirement and restrictions on a company to be included in the S&P 500 Index

    S&P 500 Index relaxes rules on allowing companies with multi share classes into the index.

    Potential for Air BnB and Blackstone getting added to the S&P 500 Index

    Aspects of index membership changing no one ever talks about including aggregate earnings.

    Bank of Japan hawkish turn

    What is yield curve control by the Bank of Japan?

    Mentioned in this Episode:

    Why Crash Predictions Don't Help | What Does the Market Fear? | Confusing Market Data | 11th Best Start to the Year https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/why-crash-predictions-dont-help-what-does-the-market/id1432836154?i=1000622056946

    Does Inflation Matter? | Make More by Losing Less? | Volatility and Cost of Hedging | Someone Buys a lot of VIX Calls

    https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/does-inflation-matter-make-more-by-losing-less-volatility/id1432836154?i=1000621261669

    Short Sellers Give Up? | The Case for Interest Rates to Stay High for Longer https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/short-sellers-give-up-the-case-for-interest-rates-to/id1432836154?i=1000620571083

    Nasdaq 100 Index Strong First Half Equals Strong Second Half? | Overbought or not? | Trying to Guess the Forward PE Multiple Is Hard!https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nasdaq-100-index-strong-first-half-equals-strong-second/id1432836154?i=1000619186796

    Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

    Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

    Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr

    Contact Derek [email protected]

    31 min
  • Why Crash Predictions Don't Help | What Does the Market Fear? | Confusing Market Data | 11th Best Start to the Year

    Jay Pestrichelli checks in with Derek Moore to discuss people that always predict horrible market crashes are coming and why it's so unhelpful for investors. Then they talk through what the market fears (besides the normal stuff) at this point including profit margins and looming strikes. Why is economic data so confusing and if its broken. Finally, they go through the S&P 500 having the 11th best 1st half and compare this market cycle to the 2000 bear market.

    Fear and market crash prediction do investors no good in the long run.

    What does the best 1st half market years tell us about the rest of the year's returns?

    S&P 500 Index has the 11th best first half of a year.

    Beyond inflation, what is left for the market to fear?

    How profit margins may be the next thing to watch

    The relationship between sales, margins, and earnings

    The economic data is all over the place.

    Leading economic indicators would seem to indicate recession, but other things are just fine.

    PPI minus CPI plotted against GAAP earnings over past years.

    What does PPI coming down greater than CPI tell us if anything?

    Surprising that the Dow Jones DIA ETF has a higher total return than SPY since inception.

    The number of workers on strike by year could hit some recent highs in 2023.

    What would large numbers of workers striking mean for the economy?

    Comparing 2000 bear market vs 2022 bear market

    Mentioned in this Episode:

    Does Inflation Matter? | Make More by Losing Less? | Volatility and Cost of Hedging | Someone Buys a lot of VIX Calls

    https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/does-inflation-matter-make-more-by-losing-less-volatility/id1432836154?i=1000621261669

    Short Sellers Give Up? | The Case for Interest Rates to Stay High for Longer https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/short-sellers-give-up-the-case-for-interest-rates-to/id1432836154?i=1000620571083

    Nasdaq 100 Index Strong First Half Equals Strong Second Half? | Overbought or not? | Trying to Guess the Forward PE Multiple Is Hard!https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nasdaq-100-index-strong-first-half-equals-strong-second/id1432836154?i=1000619186796

    Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

    Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

    Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr

    Contact Derek [email protected]

    58 min
  • Does Inflation Matter? | Make More by Losing Less? | Volatility and Cost of Hedging | Someone Buys a lot of VIX Calls

    Derek Moore is joined once again by ZEGA Financial CEO Jay Pestrichelli to debate whether inflation still matters to the market. Plus, even though stocks like META are up huge off the bottom, they still are down from their prior highs. Why this shows the power of losing less through proper hedging and how it can potentially increase returns during volatile times. Speaking of volatility, they discuss the state of Vol in the markets including the VIX and why volatility isn't lower considering the market run. Finally, they illustrate the cost of hedging downside risk in individual stocks like Nvidia, Tesla, and more. Finally, before some recommendations, they showcase the report of a huge buy of VIX October calls.

    The CPI Consumer Price Index inflation report and ramifications

    Does inflation even matter to markets?

    META/Facebook is still down -20% from its 2021 high despite being up 250% off the bottom.

    How much you must make to overcome large losses.

    Cost of hedging annualized for individual stocks like Tesla and Nvida as examples.

    How to look at the cost of hedging

    So why isn't the VIX Index lower considering markets are at 1-year highs.

    Comparing short term VIX vs normal VIX levels

    Evaluating a big purchase of October VIX calls on the VIX future.

    VIX futures vs spot VIX (the one you see on CNBC)

    Mentioned in this Episode:

    Short Sellers Give Up? | The Case for Interest Rates to Stay High for Longer https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/short-sellers-give-up-the-case-for-interest-rates-to/id1432836154?i=1000620571083

    Nasdaq 100 Index Strong First Half Equals Strong Second Half? | Overbought or not? | Trying to Guess the Forward PE Multiple Is Hard!https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nasdaq-100-index-strong-first-half-equals-strong-second/id1432836154?i=1000619186796

    Fear and Greed Index | Volatility Surface | Put Call Ratio | Wall Street Gets Bullish | Homebuilders Surprise

    https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fear-and-greed-index-volatility-surface-put-call/id1432836154?i=1000618362312

    Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

    Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

    Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr

    Contact Derek [email protected]

    1 hr 4 min
  • Short Sellers Give Up? | The Case for Interest Rates to Stay High for Longer

    Derek Moore points out that no, the Fed doesn't need to lower rates without some problem or a recession. Looking at the nineties when markets went up despite Fed Funds rate above 5%. Then looking at the net short positions of traders via the commitment of traders report. It shows recently at markets moved higher, short sellers covered causing a short squeeze? Finally, before a recommendation, some talk about the upcoming earnings season and a reminder in 2022 earnings did not go below those of 2021 and the market still sold off due to multiple contraction.

    What is a short squeeze?

    What is the commitment of traders report?

    Bloomberg article pointing to bears (short positions) being closed the most since 2020.

    How short sellers closing positions add fuel to market rallies.

    Are large net short positions in the S&P 500 futures a good contrarian bullish signal?

    How earnings still grew in 2022 a little bit but markets still sold off due to multiple contraction.

    What is multiple contraction?

    Earnings season is coming up and expectations are for a down quarter.

    Comparing the Fed Funds rate in the nineties to today

    How markets went up even with rates above 5% in the 1995 to 2000 bull run

    What would make the Fed lower rates?

    Bloomberg article hints that with less short positions outstanding the short squeeze effect drops?

    Mentioned in this Episode:

    Bloomberg article on bears covering their short positions https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-07/force-firing-up-the-stock-market-cools-off-with-shorts-conceding#xj4y7vzkg

    Nasdaq 100 Index Strong First Half Equals Strong Second Half? | Overbought or not? | Trying to Guess the Forward PE Multiple Is Hard!https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nasdaq-100-index-strong-first-half-equals-strong-second/id1432836154?i=1000619186796

    Fear and Greed Index | Volatility Surface | Put Call Ratio | Wall Street Gets Bullish | Homebuilders Surprise

    https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fear-and-greed-index-volatility-surface-put-call/id1432836154?i=1000618362312

    Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

    Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

    Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr

    Contact Derek [email protected]

    27 min
  • Nasdaq 100 Index Strong First Half Equals Strong Second Half? | Overbought or not? | Trying to Guess the Forward PE Multiple Is Hard!

    Derek Moore and ZEGA Financial CEO Jay Pestrichelli comment on Bloomberg's article showing the Nasdaq 100 Index just had its best 1st half since the early nineties. Is the market overbought or rightly valued and trending? Do investors who missed the rally say it's overbought because they need it to go back down? Looking at how markets do when they are up big in the first half of the year. Plus, Jay and Derek go back over some predictions from December to see how right or wrong they were. Finally, some quick thoughts on student loans from an economic standpoint. Some good recommendations.

    Bloomberg's article showing the Nasdaq 100 Index just had its best 1st half since the early nineties.

    Is the market overbought or rightly valued and trending?

    When markets have big first half historically how do they end the second half of the year?

    Do investors say markets are overbought because they missed out?

    Reviewing our predictions from December to now

    Student loan decision

    Looking at the cost of college from an economic standpoint

    Student loan payments start again in October and potential impact on GDP and inflation.

    You could nail next year's earnings but not the market multiple.

    What is the forward PE ratio?

    What were 2023 predictions on the S&P 500, Inflation, GDP, Gold, Bitcoin, Fed Funds and more

    Mentioned in this Episode:

    Fear and Greed Index | Volatility Surface | Put Call Ratio | Wall Street Gets Bullish | Homebuilders Surprise

    https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fear-and-greed-index-volatility-surface-put-call/id1432836154?i=1000618362312

    Bear Market Rally or New Bull? |The Fed Talks Tough but Does Nothing | PE Like its 1995

    https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bear-market-rally-or-new-bull-the-fed-talks-tough-but/id1432836154?i=1000617455261

    Cheaper to Rent than Buy? | Beneish-M Score Near Market Highs? | Top 10 Market Cap Companies by Decade | VIX Level Makes Multiyear Low https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/cheaper-to-rent-than-buy-beneish-m-score-near-market/id1432836154?i=1000615625441

    Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

    Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

    Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr

    Contact Derek [email protected]

    49 min
  • Fear and Greed Index | Volatility Surface | Put Call Ratio | Wall Street Gets Bullish | Homebuilders Surprise

    Derek Moore and ZEGA Financial CEO Jay Pestrichelli talk about CNN's Fear and Greed Index and whether it's a good indicator for markets. Then they explore differences in Put Call Ratios and how they may not measure what people think. Plus, they look at the volatility surface across different option maturities noting how low near-term options implied volatilities have gotten indicating there is no fear. Once again, they comment on how the VIX is NOT broken! Later they discuss investment banks raising their year end S&P 500 targets now that markets are higher and how no one expected homebuilders to be up 43% from the October 2022 lows but they are. Finally, Jay and Derek comment on data comparing market performance in the first ½ hour, middle of the day, final hour, and buy and hold. Of course, they have a recommendation.

    CNN's Fear and Greed Index

    What goes into the Put Call Ratio

    How Option Open Interest changes depending on the transaction.

    Option open interest can be selling options to open or buying options to open.

    Wall Street investment banks raise their year-end S&P 500 targets.

    Bespoke chart showing S&P 500 returns held during different periods.

    Performance of S&P 500 in first ½ hour, middle of the day, final hour, and buy and hold.

    Surprise Strong performance by US Homebuilders up 43% since October 2022 lows

    Existing One Family Home Sales Median Price YoY change goes negative.

    The VIX isn't broken and how the CBOE has different VIX indexes for various time periods

    Mentioned in this Episode:

    Bear Market Rally or New Bull? |The Fed Talks Tough but Does Nothing | PE Like its 1995

    https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bear-market-rally-or-new-bull-the-fed-talks-tough-but/id1432836154?i=1000617455261

    Cheaper to Rent than Buy? | Beneish-M Score Near Market Highs? | Top 10 Market Cap Companies by Decade | VIX Level Makes Multiyear Low https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/cheaper-to-rent-than-buy-beneish-m-score-near-market/id1432836154?i=1000615625441

    AI Driving Market Returns? | Size of Top 2 S&P 500 Stocks Now 15%? | Relative Performance of Tech vs S&P 500 Index at Extreme Levels https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ai-driving-market-returns-size-of-top-2-s-p-500/id1432836154?i=1000613885329

    AI Is the New Crypto & Blockchain Post Nvidia Earnings | Reach for Long Duration Bonds | More Fed Rate Increases Coming? | 7% Treasury Bills? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ai-is-the-new-crypto-blockchain-post-nvidia-earnings/id1432836154?i=1000614778019

    Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

    Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

    Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr

    Contact Derek [email protected]

    42 min
  • Bear Market Rally or New Bull? |The Fed Talks Tough but Does Nothing | PE Like its 1995

    Jay Pestrichelli is back with Derek Moore to discuss Jay Powell's tough talking but no action Fed. Plus, is this a repeat of the 1994-1995 forward PE expansion bull market? Also, they go back to the 200-2002 bear market where the Nasdaq 100 had 7 different 20% bear market rallies and the S&P 500 had its own share. Is this different? Finally, Jay and Derek look at instances where the S&P 500 made new highs with only 5% of the companies also making 52-week highs and the subsequent future historical returns. Off course some recommendations and they read a listener note.

    Why is 20% of the low a new bull market suddenly?

    New bull market or another bear market rally?

    The 1994-95 blueprint of markets rallying with forward PE expansion with rate hikes.

    Jay Powell and the Fed claim they are doing 2 more rate hikes?

    Tough talk by the Fed but they sit on their hands at the meeting.

    Why the Fed had nothing to do with taming inflation.

    PE multiple expansion responsible for the market rally.

    Fed may keep rates higher for longer.

    Does the Fed and inflation even matter anymore?

    Reviewing the 2000-2002 many failed greater than 20% bear market rallies

    Quantity theory of money PQ = MV

    The velocity of money and why quantitative easing doesn't always cause inflation

    Inflation dropping (caused by supply chain problems and government stimulus) not the Fed

    Mentioned in this Episode:

    BLS info showing auto dealership markups go way up https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2023/article/automotive-dealerships-markups.htm

    Cheaper to Rent than Buy? | Beneish-M Score Near Market Highs? | Top 10 Market Cap Companies by Decade | VIX Level Makes Multiyear Low https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/cheaper-to-rent-than-buy-beneish-m-score-near-market/id1432836154?i=1000615625441

    AI Driving Market Returns? | Size of Top 2 S&P 500 Stocks Now 15%? | Relative Performance of Tech vs S&P 500 Index at Extreme Levels https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ai-driving-market-returns-size-of-top-2-s-p-500/id1432836154?i=1000613885329

    AI Is the New Crypto & Blockchain Post Nvidia Earnings | Reach for Long Duration Bonds | More Fed Rate Increases Coming? | 7% Treasury Bills? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ai-is-the-new-crypto-blockchain-post-nvidia-earnings/id1432836154?i=1000614778019

    Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

    Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

    Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr

    Contact Derek [email protected]

    51 min
  • Fund Flows into Tech go Parabolic | Was Everyone Wrong on International Markets? | Auto Dealership Profits

    Derek Moore and Mike Puck from ZEGA Financial discuss how unlike what all the "experts" thought, international stocks have done quite well, and Europe's economy held up. They look back at how long US large cap has outperformed international developed country markets. Then they look at some sector flows and note the parabolic nature of the chart into the tech sector. Plus, they talk about US Equity Factors through very early June comparing growth, value, high beta, and low volatility performance. Finally, in a follow up to a previous episode's debate about car prices, Derek reads some reader emails and reviews the BLS data showing markups at dealerships are way up!

    Auto dealership markups go up big compared to the increase in cars themselves.

    US Equity Factors through early June

    High Beta vs Low Volatility names

    How international developed markets have lagged US large cap for years.

    Are there green shoots for developed international markets?

    What areas are included in developed international?

    Sector fund flows show tech gets a ton of new money flowing into it.

    What sectors have fallen out of favor looking at sector fund flows?

    Projections on some emerging economies share of middle class rising.

    Reading some reader email comments on car prices

    Mentioned in this Episode:

    BLS info showing auto dealership markups go way up https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2023/article/automotive-dealerships-markups.htm

    Cheaper to Rent than Buy? | Beneish-M Score Near Market Highs? | Top 10 Market Cap Companies by Decade | VIX Level Makes Multiyear Low https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/cheaper-to-rent-than-buy-beneish-m-score-near-market/id1432836154?i=1000615625441

    WSJ article M-Score Messod D. Beneish Accounting-Fraud Indicator Signals Coming Economic Trouble https://www.wsj.com/articles/accounting-fraud-indicator-signals-coming-economic-trouble-506568a0?mod=article_inline

    AI Driving Market Returns? | Size of Top 2 S&P 500 Stocks Now 15%? | Relative Performance of Tech vs S&P 500 Index at Extreme Levels https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ai-driving-market-returns-size-of-top-2-s-p-500/id1432836154?i=1000613885329

    AI Is the New Crypto & Blockchain Post Nvidia Earnings | Reach for Long Duration Bonds | More Fed Rate Increases Coming? | 7% Treasury Bills? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ai-is-the-new-crypto-blockchain-post-nvidia-earnings/id1432836154?i=1000614778019

    Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

    Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

    Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr

    Contact Derek [email protected]

    35 min
  • Cheaper to Rent than Buy? | Beneish-M Score Near Market Highs? | Top 10 Market Cap Companies by Decade | VIX Level Makes Multiyear Low

    Derek Moore and ZEGA Financial CEO Jay Pestrichelli explore data showing its cheaper to rent vs. buying a home in all but 3 markets. Then they bring up the WSJ article saying companies are "juicing" earnings evidenced by the Beneish-M score and historically whether a high M-score predated market tops. Later they look at how the top 10 market cap weighted companies have changed over the decades and why this supports buying indexes (but being hedged!). Finally, the VIX did something it hasn't done since….All this and more in this week's episode.

    Where is the homeownership premium the highest?

    Cheaper to rent vs own based on data from Redfin and Freddie Mac

    Comparing interest portion of mortgages to paying rent

    What is the Beneish M-score?

    Article by WSJ shows M-score is elevated at market peaks.

    A WSJ article says companies are using financial accounting to juice earnings.

    Top 10 largest by market cap companies in the S&P 500 index by decade

    What about top 10 by market cap companies in the world?

    The VIX now has a low not seen for several years.

    What is going on in the world of volatility?

    Equity market leadership shifts over time

    Are Apple, Microsoft and the rest of the FAAMG stocks an exception?

    Mentioned in this Episode:

    WSJ article Business Is Slowing. So Companies Are Juicing Profits https://www.wsj.com/articles/profit-numbers-get-spruced-up-as-business-slows-8eec5017

    WSJ article M-Score Messod D. Beneish Accounting-Fraud Indicator Signals Coming Economic Trouble https://www.wsj.com/articles/accounting-fraud-indicator-signals-coming-economic-trouble-506568a0?mod=article_inline

    AI Driving Market Returns? | Size of Top 2 S&P 500 Stocks Now 15%? | Relative Performance of Tech vs S&P 500 Index at Extreme Levels https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ai-driving-market-returns-size-of-top-2-s-p-500/id1432836154?i=1000613885329

    AI Is the New Crypto & Blockchain Post Nvidia Earnings | Reach for Long Duration Bonds | More Fed Rate Increases Coming? | 7% Treasury Bills? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ai-is-the-new-crypto-blockchain-post-nvidia-earnings/id1432836154?i=1000614778019

    Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

    Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

    Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr

    Contact Derek [email protected]

    52 min

About Broken Pie Chart

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The Broken Pie Chart Podcast offers fresh looks at investment portfolio management, economics, markets, retirement planning, and more by simplifying and explaining important aspects of financial…

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