This week, Will and Ben review new planting and production estimates in the U.S. and South America.
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Market recap (changes on week):
- May corn up $.09 at $6.57
- December 2023 corn down $.02 at $5.67
- May soybeans up $.70 at $15.22
- November soybeans up $.37 at $13.32
- May soybean oil up 2.23 cents at 56.68 cents/lb
- May soybean meal up $11.80 at $464.20/short ton
- May wheat down $.08 at $6.93
- July wheat down $.06 at $7.06
- June WTI Crude Oil up $7.42 at $80.45/barrel
Weekly highlights:
- US stocks of crude oil, gasoline and ethanol all fell on the most recent week with domestic gasoline use up 6% over the most recent two-week period. Along with these changes ethanol production was up just slightly for the week.
- Ag Export sales were all within expectations last week- soybeans, grain sorghum, and wheat were all up week over week while corn was down from the extremely strong week the week prior.
- Last week's 1st quarter hogs and pigs report- showed fewer grain consuming hogs over the next two quarters compared to last year.
- March 1 grain and oilseed stocks report came in below trade expectations and bullish for corn and soybeans while above expectations and bearish for wheat.
- USDA’s planting intentions report showed farmers intend to plant larger corn, soybean, and wheat acres in 2023 compared to 2022. Everything was within trader expectations, but corn and wheat were at the bearish end of expectations while soybeans were at the bullish end.
- Private estimates for Brazil’s corn crop
- Open interest of futures and options positions decreased 1% for corn and increased 2.2% for soybeans. Management money traders bought back some net contracts of corn decreasing the overall net short, traders decreased the net long in soybeans, and increased the net short in Chicago wheats. Managed money traders also decreased their long holdings of soybean meal contracts.
- It was announced over the weekend that Argentina will start a new “soy dollar” preferential exchange rate ag exports starting Monday, April 3. It is expected to last 90 days.
- Ag export inspections were bullish for corn, neutral for soybeans, and bearish for combined US wheat.
- USDA’s first crop progress report of the season showed 2% of the nation’s corn crop planted (matching average), 4% of cotton acres planted (down from 5%), and 17% of rice acres planted (up from 14% on average).
- The progress report also showed 28% of US winter wheat rated as good to excellent- down from 30% last year.
Topics:
- Market recap
- USDA's planting intentions up over last year
- Argentina opens new program to encourage soybean sales
- Brazilian corn production
- Reports to watch
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