This week in the markets – Cash cattle traded $3.25 higher this week and feeder cattle markets were anywhere from steady to $4 higher. December live cattle futures contract closed $1 higher and November feeder cattle closed $3 higher. Choice box beef price was $1.50 higher this week. Cash barrow and gilt prices were $.50 higher this week. The December lean hog futures contract closed a little more than $2.50 higher. The pork cutout value was $2.75 higher this week, supported by the strength in the bellies.
Retail prices for September – Both Choice beef and pork prices were higher in September relative to a year ago. Beef was up $.07 and pork was up $.09. However, both choice beef and pork retail prices were lower than a month ago. Boneless sirloin steak prices were 5.7 percent lower than a year ago in September, while boneless pork chops were 1.6 percent above year-ago levels.
Consumer Sentiment – The Index of Consumer Sentiment show a rebound in October, up 3 percent. The Current Economic Conditions portion of the index rose 4.5 percent in October.
Supply and Demand – The USDA report showed growing supplies of pork and chicken for 2020 an increase of 650 million pounds from last month’s report. Exports were also increased in the October WASDE for 2020, with pork leading the way, up 240 million pounds. USDA made modest revisions for their livestock price out look for 2020. The most interesting price outlook increase is for barrow and gilt prices, which are projected $9 higher for 2020. USDA lowered soybean estimates by 1 bushel per acre. From a feeding standpoint the increased the expected soybean meal price by $20/ton.
Monthly Trade Data – In August production of beef, pork, and chicken was actually down 166-million-pounds from year-ago levels, while exports were up 2 5 million pounds year over year. August pork exports increased by 22 percent relative to a year ago as China led the way with stronger trade. Year to date, exports to China are 142 million pounds above year-ago levels. August beef exports were 4 percent below year-ago levels. Both exports to Japan and South Korea fell below year-ago levels in August.
Trade, trade, and more trade – Big news this week with Japan and potentially China.
Next week’s reports: No reports. But there will be a lot of trade to talk about then.
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