The by-election in Makerfield is shaping up to be one of the most consequential contests in recent political history. On paper, the seat should be fertile ground for Reform: heavily Leave-voting, older than average and exactly the sort of ‘left behind’ constituency Nigel Farage hopes to win. But there is one complicating factor: Andy Burnham.

The Mayor of Greater Manchester is hoping that his personal popularity can defy the political gravity of the seat and carry him back to Westminster – where, if he wins, Labour MPs may well carry him straight towards No. 10. But can Burnham survive Reform’s attacks on immigration, Brexit and his record? And could Wes Streeting’s intervention on rejoining the EU prove fatal in a seat like Makerfield?

Tim Shipman is joined by Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common, to discuss why this by-election could decide not just Labour’s next leader, but the future shape of British politics.

Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

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