Lucy and Ellie chat about large language models, chat interfaces, and causal inference.

• Do LLMs Act as Repositories of Causal Knowledge?: https://arxiv.org/html/2412.10635v1

Follow along on Twitter:

• The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi

• Ellie: @EpiEllie

• Lucy: @LucyStats

🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade. Edited by Cameron Bopp.

Lucy chats with Len Testa about a recent analysis he did which combined over 150 publicly available data sources to answer a question about the affordability of Disney World.

• Len's Deep Dive Post on the Touring Plans Blog [Blog Post]
• Wall Street Journal Artcile, "Even Disney Is Worried About the High Cost of a Disney Vacation" [Article]

Follow along on Bluesky:

• Len: @lentesta.bsky.social

• Ellie: @EpiEllie.bsky.social

• Lucy: @LucyStats.bsky.social

🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade

Alyssa Bilinski, Peterson Family Assistant Professor of Health Policy, and Assistant Professor of Biostatistics, at Brown University School of Public Health. Her research focuses on developing novel methods for policy evaluation and applying these to identify interventions that most efficiently improve population health and well-being.

Episode notes:

• PNAS paper: https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2302528120

• Shuo Feng’s pre-print: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.04.08.24305335v1

• Our uncertainty paper: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33475686/

Follow along on Twitter:

• Alyssa: @ambilinski

• The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi

• Ellie: @EpiEllie

• Lucy: @LucyStats

🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDadeEdited by Cameron Bopp

Edward Kennedy Associate Professor, Department of Statistics & Data Science, Carnegie Mellon.

• ehkennedy.com

• Evaluating a Targeted Minimum Loss-Based Estimator for Capture-Recapture Analysis: An Application to HIV Surveillance in San Francisco, California: https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/193/4/673/7425624

• Doubly Robust Capture-Recapture Methods for Estimating Population Size: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01621459.2023.2187814

Follow along on Twitter:

• The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi

• Ellie: @EpiEllie

• Lucy: @LucyStats

🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDadeEdited by Cameron Bopp

Sheree Bekker & Stephen Mumford are Co-directors of the Feminist Sport Lab and have a book coming soon: “Open Play: the case for feminist sport”, coming Spring 2025. Reaktion Books (UK), University of Chicago Press (US).

Sheree Bekker: Associate Professor, University of Bath, Department for Health,

• Centre for Qualitative Research

• Centre for Health and Injury and Illness Prevention in Sport

Stephen Mumford, Professor of Metaphysics, Durham University  A

• Author of Dispositions (Oxford, 1998), Russell on Metaphysics (Routledge, 2003), Laws in Nature (Routledge, 2004), David Armstrong (Acumen, 2007), Watching Sport: Aesthetics, Ethics and Emotion (Routledge, 2011), Getting Causes from Powers (Oxford, 2011 with Rani Lill Anjum), Metaphysics: a Very Short Introduction (Oxford, 2012) and Causation: a Very Short Introduction (Oxford, 2013 with Rani Lill Anjum). I was editor of George Molnar's posthumous Powers: a Study in Metaphysics (Oxford, 2003) and Metaphysics and Science (Oxford, 2013 with Matthew Tugby).

• Feminist Sport Lab: https://www.feministsportlab.com

• Causation: A Very Short Introduction by Stephen Mumford & Rani Lill Anjum: https://academic.oup.com/book/616

• Faye Norby, Iditarod champion & epidemiologist: https://www.kfyrtv.com/2024/03/28/faye-norby-finishes-iditarod-trail-womens-foot-champion/?outputType=amp 

Follow along on Twitter:

• The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi

• Ellie: @EpiEllie

• Lucy: @LucyStats

🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDadeEdited by Cameron Bopp

Erick Scott is founder of cStructure, a causal science startup. Erick has expertise in medicine, public health, and computational biology.

• [email protected]

• “A causal roadmap for generating high-quality real-world evidence” https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10603361/

Follow along on Twitter:

• The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi

• Ellie: @EpiEllie

• Lucy: @LucyStats

🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDadeEdited by Cameron Bopp

Nima Hejazi is an assistant professor in biostatistics at Harvard University. His methodological work often draws upon tools and ideas from semi- and non-parametric inference, high-dimensional and large-scale inference, targeted or debiased machine learning (e.g., targeted minimum loss estimation, method of sieves), and computational statistics.

• Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers by Joshua B. Miller & Adam Sanjurjo: https://www.jstor.org/stable/44955325

• Nima is on Twitter/X as @nshejazi (https://twitter.com/nshejazi) and my academic webpage is https://nimahejazi.org

• Recent translational review paper (intended for the infectious disease science community) I was involved in describing some causal/statistical frameworks for evaluating immune markers as mediators / surrogate endpoints: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38458870/

• The tlverse software ecosystem is on GitHub at https://github.com/tlverse and the tlverse handbook is freely available at https://tlverse.org/tlverse-handbook/

• Dr. Hejazi annually co-teaches a causal mediation analysis workshop at SER, and notes from the latest offering are freely available at https://codex.nimahejazi.org/ser2023_mediation_workshop/

Follow along on Twitter:

• The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi

• Ellie: @EpiEllie

• Lucy: @LucyStats

🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDadeEdited by Cameron Bopp

Aaditya Ramdas is an assistant professor at Carnegie Mellon University, in the Departments of Statistics and Machine Learning. His research interests include game-theoretic statistics and sequential anytime-valid inference, multiple testing and post-selection inference, and uncertainty quantification for machine learning (conformal prediction, calibration). His applied areas of interest include neuroscience, genetics and auditing (real-estate, finance, elections). Aaditya received the IMS Peter Gavin Hall Early Career Prize, the COPSS Emerging Leader Award, the Bernoulli New Researcher Award, the NSF CAREER Award, the Sloan fellowship in Mathematics, and faculty research awards from Adobe and Google. He also spends 20% of his time at Amazon working on causality and sequential experimentation.

• Aaditya’s website: https://www.stat.cmu.edu/~aramdas/

• Game theoretic statistics resources

  • Aaditya’s course, Game-theoretic probability, statistics, and learning:

    • https://www.stat.cmu.edu/~aramdas/gtpsl/index.html

  • Papers of interest:

    • Time-uniform central limit theory and asymptotic confidence sequences: https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.06476

    • Game-theoretic statistics and safe anytime-valid inference: https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.01948

  • Discussion papers:

    • Safe Testing: https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.07801

    • Testing by Betting: https://academic.oup.com/jrsssa/article/184/2/407/7056412

    • Estimating means of bounded random variables by betting: https://academic.oup.com/jrsssb/article/86/1/1/7043257 

Follow along on Twitter:

• The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi

• Ellie: @EpiEllie

• Lucy: @LucyStats

🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDadeEdited by Cameron Bopp

Ingrid is a doctoral student in Epidemiology at the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto. 

• Winning cookie recipe

Follow along on Twitter:

• The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi

• Ellie: @EpiEllie

• Lucy: @LucyStats

🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDadeEdited by Cameron Bopp

Nick Huntington-Klein is an Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Albers School of Business and Economics, Seattle University. His research focus is econometrics, causal inference, and higher education policy. He’s also the author of an introductory causal inference textbook called The Effect and the creator of a number of Stata packages for implementing causal effect estimation procedures.

• Nick’s book, online version: https://theeffectbook.net/

• The Paper of How: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/share/W2FMEESMMSJMWDEZYY8Y?target=10.1111/obes.12598

• Nick’s twitter & BlueSky: @nickchk

• Nick’s website: https://nickchk.com

Follow along on Twitter:

• The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi

• Ellie: @EpiEllie

• Lucy: @LucyStats

🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDadeEdited by Cameron Bopp