Ellie Murray and Lucy D'Agostino McGowan discuss Bayesian statistics, model validation, and more, with special guest Dr. Frank Harrell from the Department of Biostatistics at Vanderbilt University.

🤷‍♀️What does it mean to be Bayesian?

🤷‍♀️How can we decide if our models are good?

📈Frank's COVID trial resource hub 

📈Betsy Ogburn's COVID trial protocol hub

👨‍🏫Frank's Free Biostatistics in Biomedical Research Course

🐍Lucy's tweetorial on Type 1 error and including nonlinear terms in models

Follow along on Twitter:

• The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi
• Ellie: @EpiEllie
• Lucy: @LucyStats
• Frank: @f2harrell

🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade.

👩‍🎨 Our artwork is by Allison Horst.

Ellie Murray and Lucy D'Agostino McGowan discuss coronavirus a bit more, focusing on mask wearing, data quality, disease modeling, and more! 📈 IHME COVID-19 projections 😷 A quick DIY cloth mask how-to 😷 Ellie's TikTok on safe mask removal 🧪 Lucy's tweetorial on estimating prevalences from testing data 🤷‍♀️ Lucy's model uncertainty tweetorial 

Follow along on Twitter:

• The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi
• Ellie: @EpiEllie
• Lucy: @LucyStats

🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade.

👩‍🎨 Our artwork is by Allison Horst.

Ellie Murray and Lucy D'Agostino McGowan discuss coronavirus with an added segment discussing current recommendations for people taking ACE inhibitors or ARBS with Andrew South from Wake Forest School of Medicine.

👏Wash your hands to Splash Mountain Medley:

🌟 Ellie's hand washing song lyrics (to be sung twice)

Twinkle twinkle little SARS How I wonder where you are Are you on my hands right now? On my face or on my brow? Twinkle twinkle little SARS How I wonder where you are

💃 Ellie on TikTok

🔗 Nephrology Journal Club information about ACEi/ARBS and coronavirus

Follow along on Twitter:

• The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi
• Ellie: @EpiEllie
• Lucy: @LucyStats
• Andrew: @asouth_neph

🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade.

👩‍🎨 Our artwork is by Allison Horst.

Ellie Murray and Lucy D'Agostino McGowan chat with Sean Taylor from Lyft.

Here are some links to the content we talk about in this episode:

📝 Sean’s Science paper

📦 Prophet R package

📝 Book on time-varying exposures

📝 Lyft engineering blog

📝 Hormone replacement therapy overview

📝 Analyzing observational HRT data by emulating a trial

📰 Local news

• AJE Methods Corner 

Follow along on Twitter:

• The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi
• Ellie: @EpiEllie
• Lucy: @LucyStats
• Sean: @SeanJTaylor

🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade.

👩‍🎨 Our artwork is by Allison Horst.

Ellie Murray and Lucy D'Agostino McGowan chat with Whitney Robinson from the Departments of Epidemiology at University of North Carolina Gillings School of Global Public Health

Here are some links to the content we talk about in this episode:

📝 Jeffrey Rose article (reprint)

📝 Chandra Ford’s public health praxis paper

📝 Whitney’s paper with Tyler VanderWeele on race as a cause

📝 Miguel Hernan’s paper on well-defined interventions: Does water kill?

📝 NIH funding paper

📻 Acadames podcast

📝 Miguel Hernan’s AJE paper on selection bias without colliders

📰 Local news

• We talk about novel Coronavirus and how you can get answers to your questions
• 📝We also chat about the infectious disease listserv ProMed Mail
• 📝 And the BlueDot “artificial epidemiologist”. 

PeDAGogy:

Follow along on Twitter:

• The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi
• Ellie: @EpiEllie
• Lucy: @LucyStats
• Whitney: @WhitneyEpi

🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade.

👩‍🎨 Our artwork is by Allison Horst.

Ellie Murray and Lucy D'Agostino McGowan chat with Elizabeth Stuart from the Departments of Mental Health, Biostatistics, and Health Policy and Management at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. 

Here are some links to the content we talk about in this episode:

📝 Kern et al paper on Assessing Methods for Generalizing Experimental Impact Estimates to Target Populations

📝 Article by Sherri Rose on Liz Stuart (baby pics!)

🌐 Liz Stuart's website

📰 Local news

• Naomi Distelkamp won our #EpiCookieChallenge!
• Naomi plotted flu rates in the US
• We discussed Alberto Cairo's book How Chart's Lie

Follow along on Twitter:

• The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi
• Ellie: @EpiEllie
• Lucy: @LucyStats
• Liz: @LizStuartDC

🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade.👩‍🎨 Our artwork is by Allison Horst.

Ellie Murray and Lucy D'Agostino McGowan chat with Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz, an epidemiologist studying at the University of Wollongong and a science communication writer for the Guardian, Observer, and more!

Here are some links to the content we talk about in this episode:

📝 Gideon's post on relative versus absolute risk

🐦 Gideon's twitter account @justsaysrisks

🎙 Everything Hertz Podcast

🎙Gideon's Sensationalist Science Podcast

✍️ Gideon on Medium

📧 Email Gideon for advice on getting started in Sci Comm: [email protected]

👩‍🏫 PeDAGogy

• We discussed a paper recently published in BMJ on the association between arts engagement and mortality 
• Andrew Heiss tweeted a DAG with a proposed relationship between opera and longevity

• Robert Platt also tweeted about this, suggesting that there may be an explanation other than confounding

📰 Global news

• The New York Times wrote an article on the BMJ paper that we discussed in peDAGogy
• Here is some info on the BMJ Christmas Issue
• Lucy and Jeff Leek’s clickbait-y Ted-ed lesson on clickbait

Follow along on Twitter:

• The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi
• Ellie: @EpiEllie
• Lucy: @LucyStats
• Gid: @GidMK

🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade.👩‍🎨 Our artwork is by Allison Horst.

Ellie Murray and Lucy D'Agostino McGowan chat with Matt Fox from the Departments of Epidemiology and Global Health at Boston University.

Here are some links to the content we talk about in this episode:

📄 Paper discussing a null association between smoking during pregnancy and breast cancer risk 📚 Matt's textbook on quantitative bias analysis 🔗 Bias analysis website: sites.google.com/site/biasanalysis/

📰 Global news

• Wang and Blei's The Blessing of Multiple Causes
• Obgurn, Shpitser, and Tchetgen Tchetgen's Comment
• D'Amour's Comment

In this week's global news segment we mentioned M-bias. Here is an example DAG of this phenomenon:

Follow along on Twitter:

• The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi
• Ellie: @EpiEllie
• Lucy: @LucyStats
• Matt: @ProfMattFox

🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade.👩‍🎨 Our artwork is by Allison Horst.

Ellie Murray and Lucy D'Agostino McGowan chat with Sherri Rose from the Department of Health Care Policy at Harvard Medical School.

Here are some links to the content we talk about in this episode:

📄 Paper by Anna Zink and Sherri Rose: Fair Regression for Health Care Spending 📄 The Blessing of Multiple Causes 📄  Dissecting racial bias in an algorithm used to manage the health of populations 📚 Sherri's books on targeted learning 🔗 Sherri's website: drsherrirose.org🔗 Data for Black lives: d4bl.org👏 What we're is enjoying this week: baby Yoda 📰 Our local news: American Journal of Epidemiology article: a machine learning primer for epidemiologists

PeDAGogy segment:

In this weeks segment, Ellie describes a collider!

Follow along on Twitter:

• The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi
• Ellie: @EpiEllie
• Lucy: @LucyStats
• Sherri: @sherrirose

🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade.👩‍🎨 Our artwork is by Allison Horst.

Ellie Murray and Lucy D'Agostino McGowan chat with Onyebuchi Arah from the Department of Epidemiology and UCLA Fielding School of Public Health about Social Epidemiology.

Here are some links to the content we talk about in this episode:

📄 Study in Science Advances demonstrating the funding gap in research on the community level 

📄 Matt Fox’s E-value study published in the American Journal of Epidemiology

👏 What Lucy is enjoying this week: Normcore tech newsletter

📰 Our local news: American Journal of Epidemiology article on obesity & neighborhoods 

Here is the DAG discussed in the peDAGogy segment:

Follow along on Twitter:

• The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi
• Ellie: @EpiEllie
• Lucy: @LucyStats
• Onyebuchi: @oacarah

🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade.